Commentary 

Turnout Equals Outcome

Delegate Kenneth R. "Ken" Plum

A friend who narrowly lost in a primary election earlier this year was chagrined to learn that more than enough of her supporters and contributors that she needed to win the election had not bothered to vote.  Deciding not to vote can affect the outcome of an election just as much as choosing among candidates and casting a vote.  A mature couple recently expressed to me their strong agreement with me on issues and their support for my work as a legislator.  I was in the process of adding them to my supporter list when I discovered that their names do not appear on the voter rolls.  Not taking the time or the little effort required to register to vote impacts the outcome of elections as well.

My point can best be made by looking at the outcomes of the Congressional elections in Virginia earlier this month.  In 2006 Virginians elected 8 Republicans and 3 Democrats to represent them in the U.S. House of Representatives.  In the 2008 election that number changed to 6 Democrats and 5 Republicans.  In the most recent election the number of Representatives switched back to 8 Republicans and 3 Democrats.  Turnout, those people taking the time to vote, caused these changes.  In the Fifth Congressional District, Tom Perriello won his seat in 2008 over incumbent Virgil Good by 158,810 to 158,085.  In 2010 he lost to State Senator Robert Hurt 119,250 to 110,590.  There were over 87,000 fewer votes cast in 2010 than in 2008 in the Fifth District.  If only a small percentage of the people who swept Perriello into office had bothered to vote this year, he would continue to serve in Congress.

The same situation occurred with Congressman Glenn Nye in the Second Congressional District.  He won in 2008 over an incumbent 141,857 to 128,486.  He lost as the incumbent in 2010 by 88,045 to 70,323.  Over 100,000 fewer people voted this year.  Congressman Boucher in the Ninth District was unopposed in 2008 and got 207,306 votes.  He lost this year 95,722 to 86,713.  Of course, 2008 was a presidential election year, and about three-fourths of registered voters actually cast a ballot.  This year without the presidential election the turnout was just slightly over half the registered voters.  In state election years the turnout is even smaller.

Many factors determine the outcome of elections, but turnout is a very big factor.  Sometimes voters may think their candidate is sure to win and do not vote.  Clearly many people are turned off by campaigns.  The months of television campaign ads and mailboxes stuffed with slick brochures are offensive to many people.  Remember, however, that those pesky reminder phone calls days before the election come for a reason:  whether or not you go to the polls affects the outcome of the election.