Reflections on Graduation Season
Kenneth R. "Ken" Plum
 
        The graduation season for schools, colleges, and universities is upon us.  As commonplace and expected as high school graduation is for most, it is nonetheless the case that a significant number of young people do not make it to this basic level of educational attainment.  Recently Virginia along with the other states adopted a new methodology to measure the dropout rate.  The result has been a higher dropout rate, but most experts agree a more accurate rate of measuring what is happening in the schools was needed.  The new data measures the number of students who started high school four years ago against the number who graduate this year.  In the past the rate was a reflection of the number of students leaving school in a given year without graduating.
 
        The new method of calculating the dropout rate produces a number that can be easily compared with other states to see how we are doing and a number that more accurately reflects the public perception of what the dropout rate should measure.  But it also produces a higher number.  The dropout rate under the more accurate calculation is 8.7 percent rather than the previously reported 1.9 percent for the state.  For FairfaxCounty the rate went from 1.5 percent to 5.6 percent.  The number of dropouts has not increased; we simply are measuring the number more accurately.
 
        A study commissioned by the Virginia Education Association and conducted by The Commonwealth Institute presented the same data but expressed it in on-time graduation rates.  For 2008 the study found that 81.3 percent of Virginia students graduated on time which is above the national average.  The on-time graduation rate for white students was 85.3 percent, for black students 72.6 percent, for Hispanic students 70.4 percent, and for Asian students 92.9 percent.  The on-time graduation rate for migrant students is 72.9 percent and for homeless students 58.7 percent.
 
        The Institute study found that Virginia high school graduates earn roughly $31,336 per year during their first year out of high school while Virginians with less than a high school diploma earn just $25,156.  Of course, statewide more than 61 percent of high school graduates continue their education, and in FairfaxCounty that number is more than 90 percent.  Further education increases the earning gap.  Some college will produce a roughly $458,000 increase in lifetime earnings, and a college degree will result in $1.3 million more.
 
        Congratulations to all our graduates.  For public policy makers graduation season is a time to reflect on the need to do more in dropout prevention.  Two out of ten students is too high a dropout rate for the Commonwealth.