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Change in Household Counts - Census Tracts Percent Growth from 2000 to 2010
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Water Table Depth Annual Average Change 2000 to 2011
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Population Shifts in California - Map of the Month
CED continues to see new patterns that help us understand the economic, demographic, and social landscape in California. Our latest effort involved merging Census 2000 and 2010 data for Census Tracts that analyzes changes at the sub-county level.
A previous map published in this newsletter showed change at the county level. That map revealed that population growth was most prominent in the Central Valley and Inland Empire (San Bernardino and Riverside County) areas. Two of California's 58 counties actually lost population: Plumas and Alpine. While this is interesting, if we want to know what is happening in individual community areas, we have to dig further.
Merging Census data to consistent geographical boundaries is not a simple task. Unless you're looking at counties, as we did previously, census boundaries change. Boundaries change for incorporated cities and towns, Census Designated Places, and even Census geographical building blocks such as tracts and block groups. In response, CED imported census block level data from the 2010 Decennial Census and joined it with Census 2000 tract geographies to provide a static geographical boundary with which to measure change over time.
Our map of the month shows population change by census tract throughout California. So, what does this tell us? The first thing that stands out is how much of the urban landscape experienced population decline. This shows up in large urban areas such as Sacramento, around the San Francisco Bay, the Los Angeles-northern Orange County basin, and San Diego. A decline can also be seen (although you have to look closely) in smaller urban centers like Chico, Yuba City, Stockton, Modesto, and others.
Rather urban population growth continues to be dominant on the urban periphery. All of the urban areas we listed above are almost completely surrounded by the high-growth dark green areas. Our conclusion suburban development continues to be our primary urban growth model.
One of the more striking observations is that urban centers are not the only parts of California with population decline. Many rural areas of the state are also coping with population loss. This is a challenge because population loss is usually coupled with declining financial and social resources as businesses close and community support groups struggle to survive. These losses are often the result of economic distress and because rural population loss occurred in many of California's varied landscapes (forests, farmland valleys, and deserts) the reasons behind economic distress are varied. Forest communities continue to struggle with the reduction of timber harvest on federal lands. Farm communities struggle with the expansion of non-local large and corporate farming.
We are interested in what you think. What struggles do you face with growing or declining population? We encourage dialogue through our Facebook page at https://www.facebook.com/centerforeconomicdevelopment. Share your challenges and help everyone understand them!
Groundwater Depth (Map of the Month, Part II)
CED just received the latest groundwater level data from the California Department of Water Resources. This year, we decided to code the data into our GIS system and see what it reveals about water use sustainability in the state.
We use depth to groundwater as our measure of water use sustainability. Our research indicates that whatever the primary source of a community's water, when that water runs short, it gets pumped out of the ground. Therefore, if the long-term well water depth remains stable, water use is sustainable with supply. However, if the trend is decreasing water tables there may be some issue with supply sustainability.
This map is intriguing. It shows that, with all the controversy about water supply and transport in California, much of the state is doing quite well. Any green or yellow areas show a general trend of water table increase, which is a good thing. Orange shows a slight decrease - not so bad, but situation areas in orange should be monitored closely. Red shows possible trouble spots, where water tables are declining by more than 6 inches every year on average since 2000.
CED has been doing community indicator work in the San Joaquin Valley recently and people are concerned with water supply. It affects their ability to farm sustainably and farming is a tremendous economic driver in that part of the state. Our data helps valley leaders focus their attention where it's needed. Other concern areas that show up include the Napa Valley, the eastern foothills of the lower Sacramento Valley and the desert valleys in the Southland.
We can help you understand your community and identify trouble spots where scarce resources can confidently be focused. What questions do you have about your community? We can help you find the answers, please let us know.
