The Newsletter
September 2011
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CED and CSU, Chico
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Contact Us: (530) 520-3897 cedcal@csuchico.edu |
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| Greetings! |
With school back in session, things are really ramping up here at the Center for Economic Development. Planning is well underway for our 12th Annual Economic Forecast Conference. This year we are expanding our conference efforts to address issues impacting the entire Sacramento Valley, not just the Tri-County region. We look forward to seeing you, and at least 500 of your friends at our new, improved, and expanded 2012 Economic Forecast event! Elsewhere, on Monday, Oct 5th, the Shasta SBDC will be hosting a FREE Next Steps for Small Business Tour Event at the Redding Holiday Inn. And, speaking of the Small Business Development Centers, two CED staff members, Michael Suplita and Marcy McCormick were invited to detail CED's Business and Industry Assistance Program at the 2011 ASBDC Conference in San Diego. Read their report on the event. Warren Jensen writes about a methodology improvement to our Retail Leakage Analysis - and while this may sound like a minor issue, it has profound implications for business investment in your community. Warren also reports that the 2010 American Community Survey data is now available and what this can mean to your community; the results on an Economic Impact study he recently completed for Sandia National Laboratories, and he weighs in on a recent controversy that's been in the local news regarding the reported crime rates for cities in California.
In these difficult economic times, having the right intelligence on what is happening in business and in your communities is essential for making proper decisions. We here at the CED can help you find and interpret the data so you can make the right decision. Let us know how we can be of service.
Dan Ripke Director Don Krysakowski Assistant Director
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New!! CED presents an Improved 2012 Economic Forecast Conference
| What's next for the economy? Are we heading for another, double-dip recession? Is growth and recovery at risk? Is the economy "twisting in wind?" If you're like me and wondering how to answer these questions, mark your calendar for our 12th Annual Economic Forecast Conference (Hint: January 12, 2012).
The 2012 Economic Forecast Conference will provide an in-depth national, state and regional economic forecast and assess the state of recovery. Gary Zimmerman of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco will provide insight on the national economy, Dr. Robert Eyler of Sonoma State University will speak on the state economy and Dr. David Gallo of CSU, Chico will speak on the regional economy.
Speaking of a regional economy, the 2012 Economic Forecast Conference has expanded!In addition to providing economic outlook information for Butte, Glenn and Tehama counties, we have extended the outlook of the region to include Sacramento, Yuba, Sutter, and Shasta counties as well.
Additionally, we have added a lunch and afternoon breakout sessions (optional, of course) to make a full day conference-more bang for the buck! The breakout sessions will allow for more focused attention to the topics attendees have indicated as important to them. Look for more details in next month's newsletter.
But wait, there's more.....
Over the past 12 years, this conference has grown from under 200 attendees to 450! Having outgrown our conference location at CSU, Chico, click here to find additional information on the new conference location and time!
Top Secret Information: We will be adding a keynote speaker not to be missed....so help us keep it a secret by telling only 3 other people.
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Shasta SBDC Presents 2011 Next Steps for Small Business Tour EVENT
| The 2011 Next Steps for Small Business tour, a no-cost event, aims to help small business owners take new ground in expanding their operations. Whether it is expanding your sales through social media, learning about how to sell to the government, or finding out the many benefits to selling internationally, attendees will leave with new ideas for growth!
Date: October 5 @ 9am to 3pm Location: Redding Holiday Inn Hotel 1900 Hilltop Drive, Redding, CA 96003
Cost: NO-COST
Admission to the event is free, but space is limited and registration is required so Register Early: Click Here or call 707-826-3922Click Here to Learn More |
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| Business and Industry Assistance Program Highlighted at the 2011 ASBDC Conference | |
The team behind Center for Economic Development's (CED) Business and Industry Assistance Program (BIAP) got the opportunity to present a workshop on market research tools at this year's Association of Small Business Development Centers' (ASBDC) annual conference. SBDC counselors, directors, and partners from all over the country met in San Diego to participate in a number of workshops and accreditation sessions designed to improve the services the SBDC's provide to small businesses.
A county-wide power outage almost prevented the BIAP presentation from taking place, but luckily San Diego Gas and Electric was able to get power back to the hotel in the early hours of the morning, the day of the presentation.
NECSBDC Lead Center Director Dan Ripke made it clear that reliable and valid information is imperative for small businesses, whether they are seeking financial assistance or creating and implementing a marketing plan. Michael Suplita and Marcy McCormick then outlined the tools CED uses to provide such information. The audience members actively participated in the workshop, asking questions and sharing their own experiences with various market research resources.
For more information about the CED's BIAP program or to learn how to get assistance for your small business please contact Michael Suplita at msuplita@csuchico.edu or call (530)898-3855.
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How Does Retail Leakage Work?
CED Improves on an old idea.
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Retail leakage analysis, also called retail gap analysis, is the difference between expected retail spending and actual retail capture.
Retail capture is the easier of the two to determine. At CED, we use taxable sales because that is the retail sales component that directly benefits local government general funds. Expected retail spending is a bit trickier. Most organizations conducting retail leakage analyses utilize data from "credit card swipes" to match consumer demographics with consumer demand. Here is an article explaining a little more about how this works: Click Here
Trade area demographics are then matched to consumer demand for an estimate of expected retail spending.
However, CED recently discovered a flaw in this analysis. Specifically, it overestimates the effect of income on consumer demand. This means traditional retail leakage studies underestimate demand for low-income communities and overestimate demand in high-income areas. Using this methodology, businesses will over invest in areas of higher perceived demand and under invest in areas of lower perceived demand. The former situation can lead to store closings when true demand doesn't live up to predicted demand and the later situation will preclude investment in areas that could truly support the business opportunity.
The CED's new product, Retail Leakage 4.0, uses a model that more appropriately corrects retail demand for different income levels. In developing this methodology, we discovered that retail demand in some sectors is heavily affected by income (jewelry stores and fine dining, for example), some are affected very little (general merchandise), and some are even negatively affected meaning that demand decreases as incomes increase (used cars, for example).
If your community is in need of an up-to-date retail analysis, call us for the most accurate and reliable data. Find your community's development potential and increase your taxable sales! Consultations are always free. Call Warren Jensen at 530-898-4598
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Announcement: 2010 American Community Survey Data is Now Available
| One-year 2010 economic and demographic estimates are now available from the American Community Survey (ACS). Click Here, to get the latest data for your area.
This is the data we will have to work with for our communities and neighborhoods from this point forward - the decennial Census 2010 will no longer report economic and social data for your community.
Remember that the ACS one-year data is only published for counties and places with a population of 65,000 or more people. Three-year data (2008-2010 averages) will be available for places and counties with more than a population of 20,000 in early November. Five-year data (2006-2010 averages) will be available for all communities and neighborhoods down to the Census Block Group level in mid-December (2011).
If you want more information about the differences between the ACS and the data we used to get in the decennial Census, we are offering training workshops on how to collect, accurately report, and compare the different data sets. Call Sandy Linville at CED if you are interested in attending or hosting a Census workshop in your community. |
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CED Helps Sandia National Laboratories Understand its Economic Impact in California
| Nearly $1 billion in economic activity in California generated by Sandia in 2010
LIVERMORE, Calif. - Sandia National Laboratories generated nearly $1 billion in both direct and indirect economic output in the state of California in 2010 with nearly half coming from the San Francisco Bay Area, according to a new report prepared by the Center for Economic Development (CED) at California State University-Chico.
This economic output - defined in the report as revenue to all private businesses and public organizations - included $163 million in purchases and contracts to California businesses, $155 million in employee compensation and benefits, and $1.4 million in state corporate tax. Combined, those three components amount to $319 million, the total direct injection into the California economy.
Indirectly, impacts of Sandia's spending are responsible for an additional $24 million in revenue to California's state government and $612 million in additional revenue to other businesses and organizations in the state. In sum, the total output impact is $955 million.
About half Sandia's economic impact in California occurs in the San Francisco Bay Area, home of Sandia's campus in Livermore. The Bay Area's share of the total economic impact of Sandia is $474 million in output, $304 million in household income, and more than 2,500 jobs.
Sandia's other primary location is in Albuquerque, N.M.
"This report demonstrates that Sandia is a significant economic engine for the state of California," said Denise Koker, senior manager of human resources and business operations at Sandia's California site. "And because the state - especially the Bay Area - is recognized as a global leader in energy innovation and a center of high-tech R&D and industry, we believe California and Sandia are natural partners. Those two entities should continue to strengthen their bond and seek out ways to jointly support both the state's and the country's missions through technology and innovation."
California households, according to the report, saw $497 million in financial benefits, including direct employee compensation plus $342 million in payroll, self-employment, and other household income paid by other California businesses and organizations. The household income benefit supports more than 4,800 California jobs.
At the end of 2010, Sandia employed 1,072 regular and temporary employees and approximately 130 staff augmentation (contract) employees in the state of California, primarily at its Livermore site and at the Joint BioEnergy Institute (JBEI) in Emeryville just outside San Francisco.
Also in 2010, out of 726 new hires at Sandia's New Mexico and California locations, 71 obtained their highest degree from a California university. About 106 students from around the country held internships at Sandia's California site. Sandia researchers regularly team with professors and students at California universities such as the University of California (at Berkeley, Davis, Los Angeles and San Francisco), Stanford, Caltech, Harvey Mudd and the University of Southern California. In 2010, Sandia funded more than $2.1 million to California-based universities for work that supports Sandia programs.
Cal State-Chico's CED utilized the IMPLAN economic impact analysis system (version 3.0) to estimate the overall impact of Sandia's spending on all California businesses, organizations and households. ###
Sandia's internally-produced 2010 Economic Impact on the State of California report can be found online at www.sandia.gov.
Sandia National Laboratories is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration. With main facilities in Albuquerque, N.M., and Livermore, Calif., Sandia has major R&D responsibilities in national security, energy and environmental technologies, and economic competitiveness. |
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Crime Rate Statistics are Not Fair to Rural Communities
| The FBI recently came out with its 2010 violent crime data by city. As with past years, the City of Oroville ended up near the top in terms of violent crime rate per 1,000 people, with Oakland at the top of the list of cities with more than 10,000 people. However, at its core, this is an unfair characterization of the city based solely on how crime rates are calculated.
Most violent crime occurs in commercial areas. The City of Oroville, population 15,000, sits in an urban area of about 45,000, and is the urban area's only incorporated city. Nearly all of the commercial area in the Oroville urban area is within the city limits. Therefore, crime rates in places like Oroville are based on calculations that include larger numbers of violent crimes, but fewer numbers of people. That artificially raises the city's crime rate.
A more fair comparison would be to calculate the crime rate for the entire urban area, where all of the community's population can be captured. This, of course, is difficult to tabulate. However, if you assume that just half of all violent crimes occur in commercial areas, and the other half in residential areas, the CED calculate's Oroville's crime rate at 9.8 per 1,000 population, much lower than the FBI's rate of 14.8. That would make Oroville's crime rate only 2/3 that of Oakland rate of 15.3. Other rural communities where small portions of the urbanized area are incorporated, such as Nevada City (crime rate = 12.3) and Red Bluff (crime rate = 10.3), are subject to this calculation bias as well.
This demonstrates how important it is to understand how statistics are calculated before anyone makes judgements based on them. |
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