Watching the salmon heading up those fishing ladders at the hatchery is a site to behold.  Watching some of these senior housing developers in recent months begin their annual migration upstream is also a sight to behold. A friend of mine who conducts feasibility studies for senior housing and multifamily housing is busier right now than that proverbial "one-armed paper hanger."

When comparing notes about the senior housing trends...what's really working and what is not...invariably the discussion leads to what is going on in the minds of senior housing developers.  When talking to developers we hear about the market feasibility process for certain products and there are some things that I find to be pretty scary:

• Many are dusting off those 2005 development plans for that stand-alone assisted living outdated model of independent living
• There are attempts to cram as much as possible on that 2 acre site -  an especially big thing in California
• There is a notion that the higher the acuity model the higher the return ($)!  Hmmmmm, can you say 72 units of dementia care?  

As a result, value and lifestyle are lost in small type - it's care, care, care.  Remember this, the higher the acuity, the smaller the market demand - as evidenced by the fact that assisted living residents moving in today are close to age 90!  Point two - your annual turnover rate with a high acuity model will approach 60-70 percent at maturity.  Was this fact considered in your demand analysis?

There is no magic to creating a successful senior housing development and operations model in any market condition - including this one. The key is intelligent strategy based upon thorough research and a keen understanding of the critical components of market supply and demand.

When you take a pre-recession model and couple it with today's realities, it's like putting that square peg in a round hole - it simply doesn't fit.  Developing new senior housing is not all about demographics. So, here are four simple suggestions to also consider:

1. Audit every under-performing senior project you own, operate or work for:
• Conduct a thorough strategic marketing and sales audit.
• Be objective and think about how to create a new product, at a new price or brand point.
• Consider repositioning that product from scratch. 
• Be realistic with your pro-forma.  Are you really going to get $4,000 a month?
2. Re-examine your old design before building your new product. Look at every design angle and consider the profile of people that will be living in your community 2 years and 10 years from now.  Out with the care look, the institutional feel and the inflexible common spaces I say!
3. Hire the best sales team possible. Trust me, 70 percent of the people in senior housing sales today are not capable of filling communities. If you don't believe me just look at the facts - occupancies down for three years straight (NIC), and every town has two to three communities at 60% or 70&% occupancy.  It's a quiet little topic many in our industry don't want to admit or talk about. So, look outside the industry, find selling stars, pay and incentivize them well. It's money very well spent.
4. Be collective and be an aging leader in your plan. It's not just about the building anymore. It's about being part of the big picture - home and community-based services, the greater community around you, your city planners and leaders.

So, when your development friends start licking their chops as they dust off those old architectural plans and read all the glowing silver tsunami articles, take a tour of all those struggling senior communities in your area...as you munch on a salmon sandwich!

For senior living selling skills and tips, visit us at www.MatureMarketSales.com