As god is my witness
But.
Since I don't believe in god I have to modify this sentiment to:
"As my readers are my witness ..."
I have to use this PR release format as the way to get out my races for Santa Anita's opening 2010 season where I will be predicting AHEAD OF TIME a 100% "win" rate for my top 3 pics to contain the winner in each of the 10 or so races that I will be preselecting and putting online during the Opening week (12/26/10 thru 12/31/10).
More specifically, for all the 2 year old races with a $$$$ rating, which I am definining as any 2 y.o race where purse + claiming price is greater than $22,000 - which for Santa Anita could be all 2 y.o. races during the first week of the season which equals the last calendar week of the year.
That is, it is only this last week of the year/first week of Santa Anita's opening season that this "pattern" works for my Logical Choice computer program picks. That is, "works" based on last years performance which was tested (after the fact, not actually bet) by me based on some observations of mine during the Sax 2009 Breeder's Cup races run during the month of November, 2009. (See the "sure thing" bets/commentary from there on page 4.)
I would have preferred to have this material be a sub part of my December NewsLetter but I started the thing too late to be able to get this out before the 26th of December which is the first day of Santa Anita's 2010 season and for which I am planning on making available online for free my LC White Sheet of the preselected races to bet my top 3 pics to win.
So since I am expecting the aforementioned 2 Y.O. races at Santa Anita the week of 12/26/10 to be similar to those of 2009, if you want to look into the proverbial Crystal Ball and see the future then look at this report (TheCozySax2009.pdf) on these races from last year and then look for my postings for this years through the www.aLogicalChoice.com link through Pattern Bets there - there should be one for each race day of the week, that is, for Sunday 12/26/10; Monday 12/27/10; Tuesday track is closed; Wednesday 12/29/10; Thursday 12/30/10; Friday 12/31/10.
On Saturday, January 1, 2011 ALL 2 Year Old horses become 3 Year Olds and so my computer program breaks down in its ability to predict these races (until, that is, Monday, December 26, 2011 when the "pattern" will return.)
So it is a vanishing opportunity for me to check out my prediction skills, or lack thereof in the horse race prediction challenge.
Your Joint Venturists:
Gary Deering
PsycHHology Engineer
(helping phhilosophhy
build better humans)
and
Ary Ering,
the world's most consistent handicapper
12/20/10
FYIHere's a copy of the Results Evaluation page from last year's TheCozySax2009.pdf report:Results Evaluation:
11 races bet , 11 races "won" for a very cozy 100% "win" rate
Total Cost for $2 win bets = $6 per race (top 3 to win) * 11 races = $66 plus $2 per dot * 3 total dot's = $6 for a total cost of: $72
Total Payout =
5.0
6.2
7.0
8.4
4.0
11.6
22.4
6.8
7.4
13.8
7.6
---------
$100.2
roi = (100 - 72) / 72 = +38.9% round up is almost 40% ...
so a $10 win bet would have returned 5 * 28 = $140
and a $20, $280 ...
20 is too steep for me but I might do 10 ... this year (2010) at Sax ...
to be determined ... depends on how many races of type there are to bet ...
Neophytes BEWARE!
It has been my experience in the past whenever I identify such "to good to be true 'sure thing' bets" and then actually bet them in reality as I am proposing here for next week at Sax that I usually loose badly BUT I am going to still bet. (the results given here are my hindsight look at sax for these race types and I didn't bet it as shown last year but had I done it ... oh, well there's always this year which is next week! ... )
... about 250 bucks is all I'm going to risk and if it works this year like last year I should make 40% of total bet = number or races bet * $amt per race * 0.4 ...
checking the Horsemen's Conditions 1 book at santaanita.com suggests there could be 18 races or so over the 12/26 - 31/2010 week hence ... should make a clear profit of around a hundred bucks or so ...
tbd as when get closer to 12/26 will be looking for actual 2y.o. etc races to bet and will present their white sheets in the following file via the above mentioned aLogicalChoice link:
TheCozySax2010.pdf
PS
12/19/10
If this works I will be ... shocked and (really) looking forward to next year.
......................................................................
Check out the conditions book:
http://www1.drf.com/racing_links/links_tracks.html ŕ Santa Anita ŕ Horsemen>Condition Book>Condition Book 1
could be as many as 18 races during the week ...
......................................................................
aoa prepared 12/17,18,19,20/10 ... for PRESS RELEASE 12/20/10 ahead of December's 2010 NewsLetter for release somewhere in here: 12/26..31/10
gdd
12/20/10
