MMQ: Monday Morning Quarterbacking
and the (5/1/2010) Kentucky Derby
Oops! or Yikes! or Egads! or ... Disaster! ... take your
pick (pun not intended) as any or all apply to my LC
KD's "ability" (or should I say, lack thereof?) to pick w
inners and p lacers and s howers is concerned.
It was a bad day for my picks as I lost everything I
bet--which for my new institutionalized standard KD
bet was $78 = $68 for the formularized exacta bet and
10 bucks on my top 5 to win plus let me add here that
until and unless I come up with a KD formula for
trifectas I'll add 4 deep 1 dollar trifecta boxes to this so
that I lost 102 bucks this year. (It might be interesting
to note for those of you who don't think things are
predictable that had you only bet 2 bucks to win on
every horse in the race over the last two Kentucky
Derby races you would have spent 78 bucks per 2
buck bet and cashed $121 per 78 dollars bet for a
100% "win" rate with an roi = +55%. Hence, it appears
as if the KD is still a good paying opportunity to bet
from year to year. Notice by comparison that the Stock
Market--as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial
Average during this same time period encompassing
two KD's--went from the low 8000's to about 11,000
for a gain of only about 33%.)
I of course could blame my bad performance on the
weather as my LC program assumes a fast track (it
does this of course as a
matter of convience--that is, it can't do anything yet
about a non-fast track because unlike human beings
it isn't "smart enough" to so do--that is, it isn't infinite in
its capacity to deal with new variables--that is, it
doesn't have the potential to forever add one
more variable to its list of variables--that is, it's a
but "they" say sloppy tracks (as opposed to muddy or
even good) are as fast as and sometimes faster than
Though I've checked this out anecdotally with there
seeming to be some truth to it, I haven't checked it out
scientifically so I don't know for sure if this is the case.
But here's the thing, last year if I am to believe my
history files on the KD the track was sloppy also and
my top pick over and under won half of two grand so
this year was simply, too bad, you loose.
But here is the other thing that's kinda cool about the
Kentucky Derby: there's always next year.
See you back here then?
aka gAry deEring
the worlds most consistent handicapper and
erratic bettor ...
For those of you besides me who are keeping track of
my ability to predict (non-horse race outcome) things
you will notice that up to and including the Friday just
before this KD, my
score was Reality 1,
Gary 0.24 but since last year (just
like this year) I predicted (am predicting) that the
Kentucky Derby will be run the first Saturday in
May "next year" my new score now is, Reality 2, Gary
1.24. This is an improvement for me of 24% to 62%
as the KD (inspite of the threatening weather) did run
this past Saturday and though this may seem a bit tic
(tongue-in-cheek) to some of you non "scientist" types
it remains a fact that volition in man and prediction in
science are not self-canceling ideas. (Some cognitive
behavioral scientist types think they are and argue that
because of it a science of human psychology is
This science still has to be developed I will agree
as I am working on it albeit very slowly as I have too
many other interests to pursue. Consequently, I
strongly advise you to not wait around for me to come
up with this science before you use it to solve all your
own life problems.
Rather buy all my stuff that you can (and view it as
the works-in-progress for the emerging science that
will be called PsycHHology, The Science
Psychology) and read and use them as well as read
all my free stuff online and figure out this new science
for yourself. I will continue as fast as I can to
contribute more to it in the future to help you along on
your earthly path to happiness and self-fulfillment as
you live your life day-to-day.
What more can I say, the Objectivists and
Biocentric Psychology'ists have helped me
path and I think it justice to openly acknowledge it and
express it rather than hide it or cover it up.
build better humans)
It just dawned on me (actually it didn't but ... for the
purposes of this particular writing I can use my poetic
liscense to say, it did just dawn on me) that real
MMQ'g is or should be about reviewing the "game"
and seeing where your errors as well as your
strengths and weaknesses were/are and where your
opponents are too.
But who or what in horse race predicting/betting is
The opponent has to be other bettors because all
of us by the picks we choose and the bets we make
determines the payout odds of the winners and hence
contribute big time to whether or not eventually we
come out with a positive roi (return on investment).
For example, if the majority of bettors thought and bet
on the worst horse in the race as if it were the best
and the best in the race as if it were the worst then
those who knew bettor could make a lot of return on
their betting by betting the real best.
But of course which horse is the real best is the
sixty-four thousand dollar question.
Since horse races involve a goodly amount of
human volition--from owners choosing
trainers to trainers choosing work out
races to run in to jockeys choosing to
zig & not
vice versa during many multiple moments within any
given race and not to forget the bettors
choosing which to bet--in addition to which we
the variables inherent in individual horses qua
organisms and all of this along with physical
conditions such as track condition, weather and so on
to say it is a difficult game to "win" is
understatement at (or near) its best.
Consequently, the one and only thing we know for
sure about horse race betting is that it is not an easy
game to win and like most gambling (except perhaps
the Stock Market where it appears that those who have
the inside track to Government bailouts ... wait ...
stop ... don't go there ... ok ... but ... No. In horse race
betting like most gambling) the gambler does
not "win" more money than he or she wagers.
I've heard there are exceptions to this rule but
since I've never met such an exception personally I
don't know this to be the case. (Though that "guy" who
I caught a glimpse of on TV making the $100,000
cash-in-a-briefcase win bet on Super Saver the
eventual winner leads me to believe there are such
successful bettors--I just am not one of them.)
So then the "reward" has to be more than just
money even though money is enough by itself if your
roi is positive but since in most cases (I surmise) it
isn't there has to be more rewards and there is: the
reward of being right and being paid for it when you do
cash winning tickets.
There also is "locker room" bragging
rights "rewards" and there is satisfaction
having figured something out to the best
possible-to-you qua individual figure-outter.
So ... why can't your horse race handicapping
computer program not predict horse race outcomes
better than it does - that is, why did we loose the
Kentucky Derby game to other bettors this past
Ans: because of enthalpy (or is that entropy?).
And now since I am on the verge of involking
some theory from Thermodynamics and tieing it,
through the amatuer scientist and professional
Objectivist Dr. Harry Binswanger to Philosophy I have
Because I just don't have time to get into it here
and so I will let this be a thing to continue in my
f.u.t.u.r.e just like I still have to be motivated enough
AFTER the Kentucky Derby to follow up and get as
many KD race samples in my database as I can.
But right now this year again as last year at this
post KD time frame this motivation has left me.
So maybe next year I'll do it.
Just had a thought: I have met the (betting)
oponent and he is I?
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