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MMQ: Monday Morning Quarterbacking and the Kentucky Derby

 

Some of you are perhaps thinking that I have come here to gloat but you are wrong.

Granted, you are right in that I should be able to gloat but you are wrong because I didn't bet the way I advised others to. As a result I can't gloat because I failed to take my top pick (PioneerOf The Nile) over-and-under ALL for a $1 exacta bet at a cost of 36 bucks and hence I lost out on half of the KD exacta payout of $2,074.80.

For those of you who did follow my advice and cashed in, I'm loving it and say, good job, nay ... GREAT JOB!

But for me, not.

And this "(k)not" is not the first time I not follow my own (betting) advice.

My betting history is filled with such examples.

Actually no, that's not exact (in fact, it's a tad crybaby'ish). Truthfully I should say my betting history is filled with a handful of such examples. These examples are the times when I know (all the way down to my tippy toes) that I could have cashed and should have cashed a biggie ticket but due to some inner flaw in me that I still haven't been able to figure out I didn't.

(This inner flaw "conclusion" is AFTER I have adjusted for all the permutation-combination possibilities that are inherent in horse race betting. If you consider that in a race of 20 horses there are 6,840 possible trifecta outcomes and hence trifecta bets and also 380 possible exacta outcomes and bets and ... wait ... halt ... stop. Don't go here, it's too complicated to get into this line of thinking in this short blog so halt this line ... back to main points ... )

These handful of failed-but-shouldn't-have betting events are known to me as-much-as are all the other losses in my betting events are known to me to be simple losses; losses that are part 'n parcel of the game aspects of betting on horses. These cause me no pain (payn?) and I simply chalk them up to my entertainment costs.

But now, today, The loss of bragging rights is one of the three things that have given this particular Monday morning something of a very, very, very negative slant to my psyche.

I felt so bad after the race on Saturday that I couldn't even explain my own emotion(s) to me. I tried to let them happen but I couldn't even do that.

Today I am still not (100%) over it. (I feel however that I am more than 76% over them and so I must complete this particular PR as soon as I can, least I loose interest in it.)

However, since--in my everyday world--my psychology is the beneficiary of everything I do I've decided to blog about my emotions as means to figuring them out.

Figuring out emotions isn't automatic and isn't as easy as some people think.

At least it isn't for me.

But I think I have--that is, after hours and hours and sleeping on them one night, I think I have- properly identified and named them.

They are: regret to the power of three. (The Engineer in me wants to write, -e = r3 but I won't let him.)

FIRST and foremost it is either the money or the bragging rights that I regret the most not winning.

THIRDLY, I regret not having the thousand bucks so that I could have bought my wife a really nice mothers day gift next Sunday as well as this week we could have done some relaxing things as we both have the same days off from work and could have done some of these relaxing things that do cost money.

But alas ...

I can do noa (none-of-the above) in part because by my own, freely chosen choice years ago to "go galt" (though at the time I didn't call it this) has cost me a high income so now I suffer the consequences.

But notice I also reap the rewards: more and more and more time for myself to do my selfish things (e.g., more time to write computer programs for figuring out horse race outcomes, time to blog against the evil bureaucrats whom we-have-allowed to take over control of our country and time to spend developing the new science of psychometrics that I call teleömetrics (pronounced tell-e-oh- metrics), to name just a few ... ).

I just love all this time for me so much that I have to argue that the "payment" of reduced income wasn't that high.

Besides, I do have a high enough income to be my own patron of (my) arts so to speak.

 

{{{{{

(pause ... to be continued ... finished ... but first .... on re-reading this just now as part of my editing process ... at the paragraph above that starts THIRDLY, etc ...

In this paragraph I bust into tears (that's right, burst as in uncontrollably and so this is my "clue"... remember in my Yes book I said, emotions aren't tools but they are clues ... that the third thing, in actuality, was the highest of the three as is evidenced by the intensity of its felt effect on me and the other two not nonexistent but simply lower by comparison ) and then I had a good, soft, 19 or 20 second cry ... and by "had-a-cry" I mean, I "allowed" it to be, I DID NOT block it. Now I feel 100... well not quite but for sure, at least 97% over it and ready to get on with June's NewsLetter ... the theme of which I think will be about moral equivalency and the failure of liberals to define "torture" .... And ... halt, stop. This is way way off track. Back to issues at hand.)

wait ... first ... now ... it is 7:22 am Monday, 5/4/2009 and the foregoing KD loss was known to me for certain at precisely 6:28 EST + 122.66 seconds (winners time to run the race) + a tad more for PioneerOf the Nile to cross the finish line second = about 6:30 pm EST or 5:30 pm my CDT Saturday 5/2/2009 ... that is, it "only" took me ... ... 37 hours to feel the payne of loss and to identify the major component in this feeling ... not all bad but not all good either ... some I'm sure, e.g., little kids, could do it a hell of a lot faster, like say by 5:30:01 pm CDT on Saturday 5/2/2009 (albeit without any of the understanding as to the "whys and wherefores" and hence doomed to being a child forever unless they learn to use these natural "talents" to grow ... up ... and become mature adults ... a mature adult is ... stop. ) but since the last time I was aware of such a delay in some of my feeling id's I ... wait ... halt ... this for sure is way way too complicated to get into here so drop it for now ...

}}}}}

 

I lost everything I bet on the KD but I am over it now.

Thank god.

Or rather (Dr. Branden et. al Objectivist types ... ).

TBC (ToBeContinued ... sometime, somewhere in my f.u.t.u.r.e as I am feeling a tad closer to being able to maybe finish--in my lifetime--my teleömeter. For more on this go here.)

 

Gary Deering
PsycHHology Engineer
(helping phhilosophhy
build better humans)
05/06/09

PS
Not all is lost ... maybe ... as we will have to wait and see next year. Because of the foregoing experience--as well as some things I don't have time to explain right now--I have generated a new "formula" for betting my Logical Choice™ Picks in such a way as to win Kentucky Derby exactas. I identified last year that the "formula" for this was to do my top pick over and under all and I had waited a whole year to bet it and so you can see the added angst I felt for failing to do so. But when I looked back over the other KD's (I know some of you will say, "see you overanalyze things too much" but which I still reply to these critics, "No, I think you are an underanalyzer" ... so when I looked back to 2005 when Giacomo won and the exacta paid over 9800 bucks I noticed that my top pick over and under would not have won it so I generated a new formula (I know this greed factor is part of that inner flaw explanation) and now I have combined both into a new new betting formula for next year. Without comment now, here it is:

Bet $1 exacta (Z) on Logical Choice™ LC1p53.exe White Sheet Picks as follows:

{ZTotal}KD = {α5x + $RK6x} x + {α1 o/u rest}

at a total average cost ranging between a minimum of 58 bucks and a maximum of 128.

If "we" had bet this formula over the almost dozen KD's I listed in the last email (see it for link or see archive list if you failed to save it) we would be up more than five thousand bucks.

PPS
I guess hope does spring eternal.

See you next year (online) at the KD?

FPS
Historically, for me, the Preakness has been a boring bet but the Belmont not, so I don't plan any Preakness stuff but may do something with the Belmont.

tbd.

 

AE
The World's most consistent Handicapper
05/06/09

RaIse Books LLC
Gary Deering

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