MMQ: Monday Morning Quarterbacking
and the Kentucky Derby
Some of you are perhaps thinking that I have come
here to gloat but you are wrong.
Granted, you are right in that I should be able to
gloat
but you are wrong because I didn't bet the way I
advised others to. As a result I can't gloat because I
failed to take my top pick (PioneerOf The Nile)
over-and-under ALL for a $1 exacta bet at a cost of 36
bucks and hence I lost out on half of the KD exacta
payout of $2,074.80.
For those of you who did follow my advice and cashed
in, I'm loving it and say, good job, nay ... GREAT JOB!
But for me, not.
And this "(k)not" is
not the first time I not follow my own
(betting) advice.
My betting history is filled with such examples.
Actually no, that's not exact (in fact, it's a tad
crybaby'ish). Truthfully I should say my betting history
is filled with a handful of such examples.
These
examples are the times when I know (all the
way
down to my tippy toes) that I could have
cashed and
should have cashed a biggie ticket but
due to some
inner flaw in me that I still haven't been able to figure
out I didn't.
(This inner flaw "conclusion" is AFTER I have
adjusted for all the permutation-combination
possibilities that are inherent in horse race
betting. If you consider that in a race of 20 horses
there are 6,840 possible trifecta outcomes and hence
trifecta bets and also 380 possible exacta outcomes
and bets and ... wait ... halt ... stop. Don't go here, it's
too complicated to get into this line of thinking in this
short blog so halt this line ... back to main points ... )
These handful of failed-but-shouldn't-have
betting
events are known to me as-much-as are all the
other
losses in my betting events are known to me to be
simple
losses; losses that are part 'n parcel of the
game
aspects of betting on horses. These cause me no
pain (payn?) and I simply chalk them
up to my
entertainment costs.
But now, today, The loss of bragging
rights is one of
the three things that have given
this particular Monday
morning something of a very, very, very negative
slant
to my psyche.
I felt so bad after the race on Saturday that I couldn't
even explain my own emotion(s) to me. I tried to let
them happen but I couldn't even do that.
Today I am still not (100%) over it. (I
feel however that I am more than 76% over
them and so I must
complete this particular PR as soon as I can, least I
loose interest in it.)
However, since--in my everyday world--my psychology
is the beneficiary of everything I do
I've decided to blog
about my emotions as means to figuring them
out.
Figuring out emotions isn't automatic and isn't as
easy as some people think.
At least it isn't for me.
But I think I have--that is, after hours and hours and
sleeping on them one night, I think I have-
properly
identified and named them.
They are: regret to the power of three.
(The Engineer
in me wants to write, -e = r3 but I won't let
him.)
FIRST and foremost it is either the money
or the
bragging rights that I regret the most
not winning.
THIRDLY, I regret not having the thousand bucks so
that I could have bought my wife a really nice mothers
day gift next Sunday as well as this week we could
have done some relaxing things as we both have the
same days off from work and could have done
some
of these relaxing things that do cost money.
But alas ...
I can do noa (none-of-the above) in part because by
my own, freely chosen choice years ago to "go
galt"
(though at the time I didn't call it this) has cost me a
high income so now I suffer the consequences.
But notice I also reap the rewards: more
and more
and more time for myself to do my
selfish things
(e.g., more time to write computer programs for
figuring out horse race outcomes, time to blog against
the evil bureaucrats whom we-have-allowed to
take
over control of our country and time to spend
developing the new science of psychometrics
that I
call teleömetrics (pronounced tell-e-oh-
metrics),
to
name just a few ... ).
I just love all this time for me so much that I
have to
argue that the "payment" of reduced income
wasn't that high.
Besides, I do have a high enough income to be
my
own patron of (my) arts so to speak.
{{{{{
(pause ... to be continued ... finished ... but first .... on
re-reading this just now as part of my editing
process ... at the paragraph above that starts
THIRDLY, etc ...
In this paragraph I bust into tears (that's right, burst as
in uncontrollably and so this is my "clue"... remember
in my Yes
book I said, emotions aren't tools but they
are clues ... that the third thing, in actuality, was the
highest of the three as is evidenced by the intensity of
its felt effect on me and the other two not nonexistent
but simply lower by comparison ) and then I had a
good, soft, 19 or 20 second cry ... and by "had-a-cry" I
mean,
I "allowed" it to be, I DID NOT block it. Now I
feel 100...
well not quite but for sure, at least 97% over it and
ready to get on with June's NewsLetter ... the theme of
which I think will be about moral equivalency and the
failure of liberals to define "torture" .... And ... halt,
stop.
This is way way off track. Back to issues at hand.)
wait ... first ... now ... it is 7:22 am Monday, 5/4/2009
and the foregoing KD loss was known to me for
certain at precisely 6:28 EST + 122.66 seconds
(winners time to run the race) + a tad more for
PioneerOf the Nile to cross the finish line
second =
about 6:30 pm EST or 5:30 pm my CDT
Saturday
5/2/2009 ... that is, it "only" took me ... ... 37 hours to
feel the payne of loss and to identify the major
component in this feeling ... not all bad but not all
good either ... some I'm sure, e.g., little kids,
could do it
a hell of a lot faster, like say by 5:30:01 pm CDT on
Saturday 5/2/2009 (albeit without any of the
understanding as to the "whys and wherefores" and
hence doomed to being a child forever unless they
learn to use these natural "talents" to grow ...
up ... and
become mature adults ... a mature adult is ... stop. )
but since the last time I was aware of such a delay in
some of my feeling id's I ... wait ... halt ... this for sure
is way way too complicated to get into here so drop it
for now ...
}}}}}
I lost everything I bet on the KD but I am over it now.
Thank god.
Or rather (Dr. Branden et. al Objectivist types ... ).
TBC (ToBeContinued ... sometime, somewhere in my
f.u.t.u.r.e as I am feeling a tad closer to being able to
maybe finish--in my lifetime--my
teleömeter. For more on this go here.)
Gary Deering
PsycHHology Engineer
(helping phhilosophhy
build better humans)
05/06/09
PS
Not all is lost ... maybe ... as we will have to wait and
see next year. Because of the foregoing
experience--as well as some things I don't have time
to explain
right now--I have generated a new "formula" for betting
my Logical Choice Picks in such a way as to
win
Kentucky Derby exactas. I identified last year that
the "formula" for this was to do my top pick over and
under all and I had waited a whole year to bet it and so
you can see the added angst I felt for failing to
do so.
But when I looked back over the other KD's (I know
some of you will say, "see you overanalyze things too
much" but which I still reply to these critics, "No, I think
you are an underanalyzer" ... so when I
looked back to
2005 when Giacomo won and the exacta paid
over
9800 bucks I noticed that my top pick over and under
would not have won it so I generated a new formula (I
know this greed factor is part of that inner flaw
explanation) and now I have combined both
into a new
new betting formula for next year. Without comment
now,
here it is:
Bet $1 exacta (Z) on Logical Choice
LC1p53.exe
White Sheet Picks as follows:
{ZTotal}KD =
{α5x + $RK6x}
x + {α1 o/u rest}
at a total average cost ranging between
a minimum of 58 bucks and a maximum of
128.
If "we" had bet this formula over the almost dozen
KD's I listed in the last email (see it for link or see
archive list if you failed to save it) we would be up
more than five thousand bucks.
PPS
I guess hope does spring eternal.
See you next year (online) at the KD?
FPS
Historically, for me, the Preakness has been a
boring bet but the Belmont not, so I don't plan
any Preakness stuff but may do something with
the Belmont.
tbd.
AE
The World's most consistent Handicapper
05/06/09
RaIse Books LLC
Gary Deering
|
|
Copyright � 2009 RaIse Books, LLC. All rights
reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part is
prohibited. RaIse Books, LLC is a for profit
organization. Contributions to RaIse Books, LLC are
not tax-exempt. gdeering.com,
egoAerodynamics.com,
theREALinconvenientTRUTH.com and certain other
dot coms are owned by Gary Deering. All material on
Gary's dot com websites and websides, including
RaIseBooks.com is copyrighted. Reproduction in
whole or part is prohibited without express
permission. If you are interested in publishing any of
Gary's material, please contact him at
[email protected] with the details to request
permission. Thank you.