Note: If you missed last month's (November 2008) article introducing FutureSigma, please let me know and I will send it to you. Email me at cbiesemeyer<at>pdssinc.com.
In the previous article (Introduction to FutureSigma), we introduced the concept of FutureSigma, which is all about shaping the future state you desire with an intense focus on preventing problems. We outlined some fundamental differences between the approaches of Lean Six Sigma (LSS) and FutureSigma. This month's article highlights FutureSigma's application context and elaborates further on its predictive orientation for problem prevention.
FutureSigma is also distinguished from Lean Six Sigma by the context in which it is applied. Traditional LSS has five steps applied to problem-solving; Define the problem, Measure the process where the problem exists, Analyze the data to identify the root causes of the problem, Improve the process and Control the process based upon a well designed control plan.
A lot of fuss has been made over this 5-step problem-solving process and keeping the "DMAIC" nomenclature consistent across a company. FutureSigma, however, does not use the 5-step DMAIC process because we are not solving a problem with it. Rather, FutureSigma is applied to prevent problems within the five strategic, tactical and operational processes that are used every day to run your business or enterprise. These five processes must be viewed as an integrated system of interdependent flows of work. There are three strategic processes that set the stage for your long-term future;
1. Product Portfolio Definition & Development
2. Basic & Applied Research
3. Technology Development
the tactical processes that set the stage for your short-term future;
4. Product Development & Commercialization
and the operational processes that deal with the here and now;
5. Product Line Management & Discontinuance.
Strategic and tactical processes are "developmental" processes. Operational processes are focused on sustaining, adapting and discontinuing. These processes can all be illustrated with a phase and gate model (or phase and milestone, in the case of the operational processes). FutureSigma's methods of problem prevention are applied within the phases and gates or milestones.
LSS is applied in five steps (DMAIC), while FutureSigma is applied within and across the phases and gates of the five major processes. That is a big difference! We are not solving a process problem - we are working within a flow of interrelated processes to prevent problems. It is a bigger model!
Here we illustrate (Figure 1) the five major hand-offs where information flows into and out of the enterprises' processes. FutureSigma is a feed-forward methodology and is primarily concerned with the flow of information represented by the solid black lines...
Fig 1: Process Information Hand-Offs
FutureSigma does not ignore the feed-back information flowing out of this integrated process environment. In fact, it draws upon that information to help define probable future input distributions, ranges and variable characteristics. FutureSigma conducts data mining on the Xs as a priority - not the Ys. The Ys are important, but are not the primary focus.
The probabilistic nature of preventing problems requires that we focus on the likely ways the inputs to our processes can actually vary and shift. While LSS is mainly output or Y-oriented, FutureSigma is mainly input or X-oriented. We cannot prevent problems by measuring outcomes or Ys. They represent what has happened and are analyzed using statistics. We are focused on what is probably going to happen and that forces us to pay close attention to the Xs or inputs that are leading indicators of what our outcomes, Ys, are most likely going to be. We want to shape the future and that is done through the Xs.
The reason for FutureSigma is simple; to help people who previously used classic Lean Six Sigma for problem-solving transition to a new discipline that prevents problems in the first place. It builds on the advice that Albert Einstein gave us about such a transition:
The significant problems we have cannot be solved at the same level of thinking with which we created them.
Albert Einstein
The extension: we must change our way of observing, innovating, planning and acting so that we do not create so many new problems!
