The Foresight Newsletter
August 2008 brought to you by Patrick Gray 
Prevoyance Group
Greetings!

Welcome to the Foresight Newsletter, a free monthly publication by Patrick Gray, president of Prevoyance Group Inc.  This newsletter shares tips for high performance IT organizations and observations that we hope will prove informative and enjoyable.
 
We're late this month! No excuses other than perhaps enjoying the summer a bit too much. Hopefully you are enjoying the same and we wil be back on schedule next month.
WORK 
Prepare for the Uptick
Perhaps the biggest lament of the recent economic downturn was some variation of "we never planned for this!" Certainly hindsight is always in more abundant supply than foresight, and we would all be retired to a tropical island if we accurately predicted the economic downturn, but rather than lamenting the past, we can apply its lessons to the future. While no one is precisely sure when the economy will turn for the better, chances are the trajectory will change at some point, and while less financially ruinous, missing the opportunity to have a plan in place for a growth market is equally as bad as having missed the signs of the downturn.

While nearly everyone does well during an economic uptick, those who see it first, and have a plan to take the best advantage of the uptick will be most successful. The recent downturn can actually be quite instructive in that regard. Look back at the leading indicators in your business that raised the first warning flags of doom and gloom on the horizon. Many of these factors are the same ones that will show the first signs of an uptick. Determining the three to five key indicators of changing fortunes as related to your business will give you an accurate barometer of the future, while competitors are simply looking out the window hoping for sunshine. These indicators are likely unique to a particular industry or even an individual business, so expect that they may not be the metrics spouted by economists on the evening news and your indicators may precede or lag the overall economy.

Just as cutting plans were hastily thrown together as the economy stalled by less savvy companies, pulled from the shelf and implemented thoughtfully by the more prepared, having an expansion plan waiting in the wings will allow you to take maximum advantage of an economic uptick. Which areas will you focus on in good times? How rapidly will demand increase and how will you cope with the increased demand? How should your products be positioned in a growth economy? Ask these types of questions and it will drive your plan.
 
Just as many organizations were caught flat-footed as the recession hit, many will sit idly by as a growth cycle returns, happy to see back ink on the P&L rather than red. The tragedy is that those who do not plan for the uptick as carefully as the downturn will happily experience marginal growth while those with a detailed playbook for expansion blast them out of the water.
LIFE 
The Joys of a Good Book
At the risk of sounding like a grade school teacher admonishing his or her children to spend more time with a book than with the television, I would like to take a moment to extol the virtues of a good book, especially one that is outside the genres or styles you normally read.

In a world of mass communication, where technologies range from social networking to ubiquitous internet forums and product feedback technologies, books are one of the few uninterrupted links between you and one other person. A book gives you several hours of unadulterated prose from another person's mind, whether that prose is little more than a good yarn, or a detailed investigation into current events, history, business or technology. The book is the antithesis of sound bite culture, and a fine respite from the banalities of the masses often found on the Internet.

I hated history while in school, yet on a lark pulled a history book of the shelf one day and have been hooked ever since. Some of my favorite books have been outside what I normally would read, and have introduced me to new thoughts, perspectives, insights and even more pragmatic subjects like food, good drink and new places to travel. Even muscling through one of those "classics" a past teacher recommended, whether it be the 1200 page leviathan of Atlas Shrugged or a Hemmingway novel gives a sense of accomplishment that other sources of media simply cannot match. With a few months of summer left, grab that dusty tome you have been meaning to read for years, and give it a try.
HEARD IN THE HALLWAYS 
Holy Wars
The great debate in the US political sphere these days is around healthcare. I try and avoid politics in this newsletter, and will wade carefully into this issue and spare you from any political commentary, but this issue is a fine example of a political technique that often goes awry: the holy war.

Healthcare has morphed from a point of debate to a "you're either with us or against us" argument, with each side drawing battle lines, calling names, pointing fingers and refusing to budge an inch. Detractors of either side have been called everything from political pawns and stooges, to Nazis. As in politics, holy wars can arise in a corporate environment, and are occasionally effective. If you can bring enough pressure to bear on the opposing viewpoint and ostracize its supporters, you can often steamroll a policy through an organization more quickly than might have been possible with polite debate and long consideration. While this may be quick, like any war there are a raft of casualties in its wake, and perhaps more insidious, once a holy war begins, it is difficult to declare détente before the issue is resolved, since the question at hand is no longer one of pros and cons or rational analysis, but one with quasi-religious significance.

Watch for the outbreak of a holy war around a contentious issue. When debate over the question turns into name calling and the tenor of communications about an issue turn from attempts to convince the skeptical to attempts to shame and ridicule the non-believers, the debate may be turning into a holy war and immediate remedial action is called for if you do not intend to launch a holy war. Finally, if you do decide to launch a holy war around an issue, make sure you can win, and have a plan to pick up the metaphorical bodies after the smoke has cleared.
TRAVELS WITH PATRICK 
The Road Less Traveled
I spent the last several weeks traveling across the United States via motorcycle, riding solo from South Carolina to the mountains of Colorado. One of the biggest surprises for me was the demise of the small American town. I avoided highways during my trip to Colorado, and dotted along miles of seemingly uninhabited country were small towns that were eerily quiet. Many had signs of former greatness, with a main street that had signs of several retail or dining establishments, most now largely empty and adorned with "For Lease" or "For Sale" signs. The only two businesses that seemed to be universally successful in these towns were churches of some sort, and tax accountants, lending some credence to the old adage that the only certainties in life are death and taxes.

I wondered about the story behind each town I passed through. What stories of triumph and tragedy were behind each closed business? What did the people in the tightly shuttered houses do for a living, and how many generations had lived in the town before children left for the draw of somewhere else? As someone who considers themselves fairly well-travelled it was a bit humbling to see parts of my home country suffering through circumstances I had never imagined. While Kansas or Missouri may not be the most exotic locations, the journey was proof of all the nuances and outright differences that exist between the major airports and motorways, if only one takes the time to take the road less traveled.
Thanks for reading this month's Foresight newsletter. We love hearing from our readers, so please feel free to email info@prevoyancegroup.com with any comments or suggestions.
 
Warm Regards,
 

Patrick Gray
Prevoyance Group
In This Issue
Work
Life
Heard in the Hallways
Travels with Patrick
Quick Links
BreakthroughIT
Breakthrough IT Turns 1
Patrick Gray's debut book, Breakthrough IT: Supercharging Organizational Value through IT celebrated its first "birthday" in November. You can purchase the book on Amazon.com or request signed copies or volume orders by emailing info@prevoyancegroup.com.