Is it just me ... or does it seem like Mother Nature has been getting increasingly grouchy and downright unpleasant these days?  From our home base here in normally calm North Carolina, we have recently experienced the combined drama of earthquakes, tornadoes and a nasty hurricane ... all in a matter of days apart.  Enough already!  Just as we are powerless in changing the path and fury of Mother Nature, we are also subject to wrath and vagaries of a volatile, fragile global economy.  We have described these times as ... The Era of Rampant Uncertainty.  A friend who studies numerology once told me that I was born under the sign of "uncertainty resolver" so you can imagine how that makes me feel these days!



by Nick Horney, Ph.D


Many organizations plan for the future - or, at least, for a future that they believe or hope will happen.  Often, this future is based on "best" or "worst" case projections of current trends and bears an uncanny resemblance to the present.  This approach works best for organizations that operate in stable, predictable environments - but most of today's businesses, educational institutions and public sector organizations are facing greater uncertainty and experiencing more change than ever before.  They need an approach that helps them make sense of what is going on, spot new trends and events that are likely to affect them in future, and, perhaps, make significant changes to what they do and how they work.

Agile scenario planning is a tool that organizations can use to help them imagine and manage the future more effectively.  The scenario process highlights the principal drivers of change and associated uncertainties facing organizations today and explores how they might play out in the future.  The result is a set of stories that offer alternative views of what the future might look like. 

Through discussion, organizations can explore what they would do differently in each scenario.  They can identify success criteria, suggest new ways of working and define new relationships.  Generally, these differ in each scenario - and the discussion can help participants build a shared understanding of how the increasingly complex changes taking place in the world are likely to affect their strategy and business plans.



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Nick Horney,  Ph.D., Principal



Tom O'Shea, CMC, Principal



Agility Consulting & Training, LLC

1901 Rosevilla Lane - Greensboro, NC 27455