Brighton Bulletin

 

Issue: # 28

 

January 2011

Happy New Year and welcome to the January 2011
Issue of the Brighton Bulletin!
 

As we entered 2010, the rise in equity markets from the bottom in March of 2009 left us concerned equity markets were over-extended and facing a market correction. We had introduced several hedged equity strategies to help provide some downside protection just in case. We thought at the time that the S&P 500 could end 2010 around 1,200 which would have been roughly a 7.5% increase for the year (excluding dividends).  In fact, the S&P first crossed 1,000 the week of August 5, 2009 and trended between 1,000 and 1,200 until finally breaking free of the 1,200 "ceiling" the first week of December 2010. The result was an actual return, again excluding dividends, closer to 12.5%.

That's an above average year for domestic equities yet was roughly 1/4th of the increase in S&P 500 aggregate earnings, which were closer to 47%. What this means is we got a correction of sorts by trending in a rather narrow range while earnings recovered. The result is P/E ratios fell for all sectors but Consumer Staples and Telecommunications over the course of the year. Thus, it does appear that stocks are more appropriately valued today than they were twelve months ago.

Heading into 2011, we remain cautious regarding domestic equity market performance but less concerned about a severe correction. Economic indicators appear to be improving and persistently surprising positively rather negatively as they did in 09 and early 2010. Improving fundamentals and earnings suggest another positive year for stocks in 2011. We are cautious because unemployment remains high, the GDP output gap still exists and housing remains weak. These are all potential drags on earnings and stock price performance. Consequently, our forecast is for positive, albeit, below historical average performance is likely in 2011.

As for fixed income, we remain concerned about global sovereign debt levels, including here in the U.S., and the threat of rising inflation later in 2011, both of which could put upward pressure on rates. It does appear that corporations have dramatically improved their balance sheets, with substantial cash available, suggesting default risk is falling. So higher quality corporate debt may be attractive. Emering markets also remain interesting as their balance sheets, GDP growth potential and fiscal discipline appear much better than in developed markets. Our forecast is for performance similar to 2010 which was in the 5.5% to 6.5% range depending on the benchmark.

We do see opportunities in select markets and will incorporate appropriate investments into client portfolios during 2011. We are appreciative of our clients trust in us and will continue to work hard for you in 2011!

       
As always, if there is anything we can do for you, please contact us.  Follow us on Facebook, and on our blog, the Brighton Perspective!
Sincerely,
 
John P. Middleton, CFA, CAIA
Brighton Financial Planning 

The Best 529 College Savings Plans

   

529 college-savings plans are growing up quickly, but like a lot of teenagers, they have some awkward qualities.

These state-based savings plans have made significant strides forward over the past 18 months. Thirty of the nation's 82 529 plans have cut their fees, which is an immediate benefit to shareholders. Also, states have been relatively quick to get rid of unsuccessful investment options within 529 plans. These signs of maturity, however, are offset by a few less-desirable features. Fees at many plans could be lower, for example, and many investment choices fail the best-in-class test.

Morningstar's seventh annual study of 529 college-savings plans is based on months of research into more than 50 of the largest 529 college-savings plans that together represent 94% of the industry's $119 billion of assets. Morningstar's mutual fund analysts studied detailed comparisons of the plans' asset allocations, underlying investments, returns, fees, stewardship practices, and tax incentives. The team also discussed investment strategies with the plans' program managers and talked with the states' representatives to determine how they oversee, market, and administer their 529 plans.

From this work, Morningstar developed a new Analyst Rating for 529 plans, and it has been assigned to each of the 52 plans the analysts studied most closely. The Analyst Ratings are Top, Above Average, Average, Below Average, and Bottom. Investors can use these ratings to quickly identify which plans are the industry's best and worst, as well as where plans fall in between.

To earn a Top rating, plans must harness the industry's best practices. Specifically, Top plans have strong investment options run by talented management teams. Those managers typically work for asset-management companies that are good stewards of capital. Top 529 plans charge fair fees for their investment strategies and, in Morningstar's view, are likely to deliver strong long-term performances.

Five 529 plans received Top Morningstar Analyst Ratings and thus make Morningstar's Best 529 Plan list for 2010. These plans are the hands-down best choices for local residents, but they're also contenders for those willing to leave home for a best-of-breed plan. Among the college savers most likely to benefit from an out-of-state plan are those living in states with no tax incentives to stay put and those who intend to save tens of thousands of dollars in a 529 plan. (In-state tax benefits shrink in importance as one's nest egg grows larger.)

Here's what made each of the Top plans stand out:

T. Rowe Price College Savings Plan and Maryland College Investment Plan
Thoughtful Management: Both of these plans are sold directly to college savers (not through a financial advisor) and are run by T. Rowe Price. They feature nearly identical asset allocation and underlying funds. These are two of the few direct-sold 529 plans that emphasize actively managed funds, rather than index funds. As a result, college savers pay more than they would for an indexed-only plan, but they're getting a strong set of funds run by experienced managers. T. Rowe Price has used this lineup well elsewhere, including in the firm's target-date funds, which also earn Morningstar's Top Analyst Rating.

CollegeAdvantage 529 Savings Plan
Low-Cost All-Star Team: This 529 plan, managed by the Ohio Tuition Trust Authority, mixes sought-after money managers from a number of firms. Vanguard runs a set of age-based indexed options, while another track of investments mixes active managers from PIMCO, Vanguard, Oppenheimer, and GE, along with some Vanguard index funds. Morningstar has found it's usually more expensive to offer multiple firms' strategies in a single 529 plan, but this plan's total expenses are among the lowest for their respective strategies.

The Vanguard 529 College Savings Plan
Cheap Indexed Options: The cost of buying index funds in 529 plans went way down in 2010 when Fidelity first announced steep fee cuts within the plans it manages, particularly among indexed options. Vanguard--the industry's leader in indexing strategies--has followed suit, though not for every plan it manages. The Vanguard 529 College Savings Plan, sold through the state of Nevada, features an expense ratio of 0.25% on its age-based options, making it a top choice for college savers. If the $3,000 minimum investment for this plan is too steep, New York's 529 College Savings Program (Direct), another Vanguard-run, direct-sold suite of indexed options, charges the same but requires just $25 to get going. The New York plan, however, lacks international exposure in the age-based tracks.

CollegeAmerica
Steady-Eddie Investments: This Virginia-based plan is the nation's largest, and it's no wonder why. American Funds, a broker-sold family of funds known for its patient, risk-aware investing style, offers its complete lineup here for advisors to mix for their clients. Many broker-sold 529 plans are significantly more costly than their namesake mutual funds, but these are barely higher, and the funds' long-term records are enviable.

Some Plans Have Shortcomings
Not surprisingly, the plans that didn't earn passing marks from Morningstar--those with Below Average and Bottom ratings--fall short where the best plans excel. Two of the three plans earning Below Average ratings are mostly indexed options that now look too expensive relative to the now-lower fees on indexed options from Fidelity and Vanguard. Georgia's Path2College 529 Plan  is run by TIAA-CREF and charges nearly twice as much as The Vanguard 529 College Savings Plan's 0.25% per year. The same is true of The Upromise College Fund 529 Plan, which also hails from Nevada and is a clone of The Vanguard 529 College Savings Plan but charges double.

The other plan with room to improve is Tomorrow's Scholar College Savings Plan, one of two broker-sold plans based in Wisconsin. It's rated Below Average because the plan's investment options, which are mostly from Wells Fargo, together have turned in some of the worst risk-adjusted performance relative to similar peers. The plan's asset-weighted expenses are also high.

The only plan to get Morningstar's Bottom rating, CollegeBound fund of Rhode Island, also has a poor long-term track record, but of greater concern is personnel turnover at program manager AllianceBernstein. The firm was hard-hit during the 2008 market downturn. Since then, investors and AllianceBernstein's own personnel have voted with their feet. Many of the funds have been in net redemptions, and key personnel--including several chief investment officers--have left the firm. There are a few bright spots in the organization, but they're not enough to instill confidence that the firm is back on solid footing.

by Laura Pavlenko Lutton | 2010-12-31-

Laura Pavlenko Lutton is an editorial director in Morningstar's fund research group.

 

 

2010 Income Tax Key Numbers
  

We have provided the 2010 Key Numbers for Income Tax Preparation and Planning on our website!

 

Click below to view the Key Numbers Tables.


In This Issue
The Best 529 College Savings Plans
2010 Income Tax Key Numbers
Tax Act Quick Guide
 
 
 
 
Quick Links
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Tax Act Quick Guide

  

The Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010 was signed into law on December 17, 2010. Here's a quick guide to some of the changes.

 

Click on the Link below to view the Video

 

 Tax Relief Video 

 

 

  

 


 
 
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Disclosures

  • The views expressed herein represent the opinion(s) of Brighton Financial Professionals as of the date of this posting, and may change at any time without prior notification.
  • The links to other websites provides a path to other entities' websites that are not affiliate with BFP.  BFP is not responsible for the content or information practices by websites linked to Brighton.  Often we provide links to other sites solely as pointers to information or topics that may be of interest to users of our website. Such links do not imply BFP's endorsement of any information or material on any other site and BFP disclaims all liability with regard to your access to and use of such linked websites.
  • Brighton Financial Planning utilizes information from third party sources. Brighton Financial Planning is not responsible for verifying the accuracy of any information sourced by such third-party information providers. 

  • Any mention of products or securities does not constitute a recommendation, investment, legal or tax advice, as BFP is not holding itself out as providing such advice. 
  • Any mention of securities does not represent an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell such securities, particularly in those jurisdictions where such solicitation or offer is prohibited by law. 

  • As with all investments, there are inherent risks to investing that may not be able to be mitigate through responsible investing.  You should consult with a qualified investment adviser prior to investing.