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Welcome to the August Issue of the Brighton Bulletin!
We hope you are having a wonderful summer. In this issue we discuss some portfolio changes, as well as, the financial reform bill recently signed into law. Also, check out our Complementary RoadMap and see if you're on track. We hope you find the bulletin informative, if so, please pass along, we welcome all referrals!
As always, if there is anything we can do for you, please contact us. Follow us on Facebook, and on our blog, the Brighton Perspective!
Enjoy the remainder of the summer! Sincerely,
John P. Middleton, CFA, CAIA Brighton Financial Planning |
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Portfolio Changes |
We recently removed our commodities exposure from client accounts and replaced it with managed futures exposure. Why? We originally added the exposure in June 2009 as we expected potentially higher inflation than experienced in the recent past. The exposure was a positive contributor to performance over the last twelve months but the dynamics of our global economy have changed. We are now more concerned with the increasing risk of deflation in the U.S. economy, a slowdown in the Chinese economy (they are largest buyer of commodities globally) and a continued weak global economy. Under this analysis, we anticipate commodities will not appreciate significantly over the next 12 months and thus believe better investment opportunities exist elsewhere.
We continue to believe the equity markets offer limited potential over the next twelve months. While corporate earnings growth for the 2nd quarter of 2010 has been better than expected, this improvement comes while economic leading indicators appear to be weakening substantially. For example (data from David Rosenberg at Gluskin, Sheff):
· ISM was 60.4 in April and was down to 56.2 in June and likely down to 54 to start Q3.
· Philly Fed was 31.9 in April; was down to 19.6 in June and down to 5.1 to start Q3.
· NY Empire index was 20.2 in April and was down to 8.0 in June; and down to 5.1 in July to start the third quarter.
· NAHB was 19 in April, fell to 16 by June and was down to 14 as Q3 began.
· Consumer confidence was 57.7 to start Q2 and closed the quarter at 52.9.
· The NFIB index also started Q2 as 90.6 and finished at 89.
Additionally, also per David Rosenberg -"To little fanfare, the ECRI just hit -10.5 for the July 16th week from -9.8. It's never been here before without there being a recession. Our in-house logit model actually pegs recession odds at 67%, up from 45% one month ago and 0% at the turn of the year. What is remarkable is that the ECRI was not mentioned in one newspaper over the weekend - outside of Randy Forsythe's bond column in Barron's where it was once again discredited for exaggerating recession risks. What is even more remarkable is that nobody was talking about how useless this indicator was when it was soaring back in late 2008. The baseline trend in real final sales is 1.2% and the inventory cycle has peaked. Meanwhile, we have at least 1.5 percentage points of fiscal drag coming our way next year so it will be interesting to see what it is that ends up preventing the U.S. economy from contracting.
Next year's scheduled tax hikes are significant - the top marginal income tax rate goes from 35% to 41%; capital gains goes from 15% to 20%; the top dividend rate rises from 15% to 39.6%; and estate taxes from 0% to 55%. These are big bites, and according to an article on page A2 of last Friday's WSJ, the Administration does not seem bent on backing away ("Geithner: Taxes on Wealthiest to Rise"). Only three other times in the post-WWII era has the tax bite been this aggressive, and hard landings in the economy followed soon thereafter in two of those three episodes.
It all boils down to the consumer, which is showing signs of fatigue. This assertion is backed up not just by the recent sales data but also by what the CEO of American Express (Kenneth Chenault) said last week after its earnings results were released:
"While spending among affluent consumers and businesses remains strong, today's card members are borrowing less and paying down more of their outstanding debt. We remain cautious about the economy and the challenging regulatory environment". "
Consequently, we replaced the commodities exposure with a managed futures strategy. This passive strategy is an open-end mutual fund that attempts to match the performance of the S&P Diversified Trends Indicator. Per Standard & Poors, the Index is a "composite of 24 highly liquid futures grouped into 14 sectors, evenly weighted between financials and commodities". The Index positions each sector long or short (except Energy) based on its price behavior relative to its moving average. The position was added to provide potential long-term positive total return while also providing a potential downside hedge (short exposure) and contributing to a potential reduction in total portfolio volatility. This should be achieved because long/short strategies generally and managed futures strategies particularly, tend to be poorly correlated with traditional asset classes.
For more information on the S&P DTI click here: SS&P DTI&P DTIS&P DTI
For more information on managed futures click here:Managed FuturesManaged Futures
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The financial reform bill recently signed into law is an attempt to address some of the problems that contributed to the 2008 financial crisis. The legislation, officially known as the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, is considered the most wide-ranging overhaul of the U.S. financial system since the aftermath of the Great Depression. Because the problems it addresses are complex, the legislation itself is complex; much of the real impact will be felt only after regulations are developed to implement the law's provisions. Also, some provisions, such as those dealing with lending practices, will have a direct impact on individuals and investors; others will primarily affect the ways in which Wall Street functions.
Lenders
The Act requires originators of residential mortgages to disclose any conflicts of interest and compare costs and benefits of mortgages offered to a potential borrower. Lenders also will be required to verify whether, based on income, credit history, and other data, a borrower has a reasonable ability to repay a loan plus its associated taxes, insurance, and other costs. Lenders will no longer be able to give loan officers financial incentives that induce them to steer customers to a mortgage with a higher interest rate simply to increase their own commission. Their ability to impose prepayment penalties when a borrower repays a loan early also will be more limited, and a holder of a hybrid adjustable rate mortgage must receive notice of any change in the interest rate six months in advance. Lenders are prohibited from refinancing an existing mortgage unless the new mortgage offers a net benefit to the borrower, and they may not coerce or induce an appraiser to make a faulty appraisal of a property's value. High-cost mortgages are subject to special regulations. Any balloon payments on high-cost mortgages cannot be more than twice as large as the average of earlier payments, and a borrower must receive qualified counseling on the advisability of a high-cost mortgage before credit can be extended. Homeowners who are unable to make mortgage payments as a result of losing their jobs or because of a medical condition may now qualify for up to $50,000 in assistance loaned through HUD's existing Emergency Mortgage Assistance Fund.
Investments
Institutional investors' inability to determine the amount of global financial exposure to derivatives--investments based on the value of other investments--contributed to the panic at the height of the financial crisis. Over-the-counter derivatives must now be traded on a public exchange, and trades must be cleared through a registered clearinghouse. Nonstandard derivatives can still be traded privately, but must be reported to a central authority in order to increase regulators' ability to monitor the overall level of activity. Hedge funds and private-equity advisors will be required to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and disclose to the commission information such as investment positions and the amount of leverage involved. Also, the $1 million minimum net worth required to be an accredited investor eligible to invest in such funds will no longer include a principal residence, and that $1 million threshold will be reviewed every four years.
Credit rating firms, which were criticized for being too lax in their evaluations of securities based on subprime mortgages, will be subject to oversight by the SEC, which can fine those that issue too many faulty ratings over time. Also, investors will now have the right to sue an agency for issuing ratings it knew or should have known were flawed. Shareholders of public companies will have the right to a nonbinding vote on compensation for the company's executives. Also, protections for people reporting securities law violations have been enhanced. Whistle-blowers with information that leads to monetary sanctions of more than $1 million will be eligible for 10 percent to 30 percent of the funds collected from the offender; if an employer retaliates, a whistle-blower can sue without waiting until administrative remedies have been exhausted.
Banks
Banks will be required to hold additional capital to cover potential losses, and some securities are no longer acceptable as vehicles for capital reserves held by large banks. Banks also will be required to retain at least 5 percent of a loan on their books if the loan is sold and/or repackaged with other loans and securitized. (However, some relatively low-risk mortgages, such as fully documented loans with a fixed interest rate, are exempted.) Banks also will be more limited in their ability to engage in proprietary trading in their own accounts, which could represent a conflict of interest with their responsibility to their clients. They also will have to set up separate operations to handle their most risky derivative trades, such as swaps. A bank will not be permitted to invest more than 3 percent of its core capital in hedge funds and private equity, but it may still organize and offer them as long as certain conditions are met. A Consumer Financial Protection Bureau overseen by the Federal Reserve will be created to regulate consumer financial products and services.
A new Financial Stability Oversight Council is charged with assessing and managing risks that could threaten the entire U.S. financial system. Also, the FDIC will manage the liquidation of a bank whose failure the Treasury Secretary determines would disrupt the stability of the nation's financial system. That will include firing corporate management responsible for the failure and prohibiting any payments to shareholders until all other claims are paid. The FDIC may borrow from an Orderly Liquidation Fund to pay for a liquidation, but those costs must be replenished not from taxpayer funds but from claims on the bank and, if necessary, assessments on large financial institutions. The Act does not permit the Federal Reserve or the FDIC to lend to or provide a guarantee for individual or insolvent companies or banks, but both may lend funds to provide liquidity. During the financial crisis, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) temporarily increased from $100,000 to $250,000 the amount it will insure on deposit accounts in FDIC-insured banks. The $250,000 limit is now permanent. That means that a couple who each had separate deposit accounts as well as a single joint account could qualify for up to $750,000 worth of protection on those accounts. | |
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Where are you on your road to the future?
Most of us start with a plan, then rarely revisit it. As life situations change, how do you know if you are still on track?
Click on the link below to find out!
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Disclosures
The views expressed herein represent the opinion(s) of Brighton Financial Professionals as of the date of this posting, and may change at any time without prior notification. |
The links to other websites provides a path to other entities' websites that are not affiliate with BFP. BFP is not responsible for the content or information practices by websites linked to Brighton. Often we provide links to other sites solely as pointers to information or topics that may be of interest to users of our website. Such links do not imply BFP's endorsement of any information or material on any other site and BFP disclaims all liability with regard to your access to and use of such linked websites.
Brighton Financial Planning utilizes information from third party sources. Brighton Financial Planning is not responsible for verifying the accuracy of any information sourced by such third-party information providers.
Any mention of products or securities does not constitute a recommendation, investment, legal or tax advice, as BFP is not holding itself out as providing such advice.
Any mention of securities does not represent an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell such securities, particularly in those jurisdictions where such solicitation or offer is prohibited by law.
As with all investments, there are inherent risks to investing that may not be able to be mitigate through responsible investing. You should consult with a qualified investment adviser prior to investing. |
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