With experts predicting economic recovery to be revved up by the middle of 2010, many leaders are wondering what to do about staffing.  The conservative viewpoint is to wait and see, because who among us truly knows when the recovery will be in full swing?
 
Some hiring experts are predicting a hiring frenzy in 2010.  We agree with this prediction.  Why?  Employers who have cut back have tried to retain their best people.  In many cases, they have eliminated bonuses and/or asked people to accept pay cuts, reduced hours, reduced benefits, etc.  Yet these great people are working harder, shouldering a bigger burden from the reduced head count.

Most high potential people in this situation will begin to think about a job change.  They will say to themselves, "I'm now even more overworked and underappreciated than ever, and the grass must be greener on the other side."  It is human nature to think we have it worse than others!  Many of these "A" players are actually already looking for another job.  Employers too often take key people for granted.  Bosses are often very focused on the business, not their top asset - people - and may ignore the symptoms and side effects (employee dissatisfaction) because of the disease (business downturn). 
 
The result of this pervasive discontent is a perfect storm - the minute a few good jobs become available, your top person jumps ship, hoping for something better.  Some employers may even realize, "Wow, I had Joe doing the job of two people.  I'd better hire two right now."  But even one change causes a ripple effect, and soon people are playing musical chairs, seeking the brighter tomorrow. 
 
If this theory is correct, there will be a lot of hiring happening, even before an actual recovery.  The key question is:  Do you want to find yourself on the leading edge or the trailing edge of this phenomenon?  Employers who seek internal upgrades (of low-performing people) and/or key additions to their staff sooner, will in fact capture the best people early, rebalance their workload to be more tolerable, and will be better positioned to thrive in the recovery.  Salary expectations are realistic right now, but will surely go up as the market becomes competitive.  You could end up with a less valuable choice, for a higher cost.
 
If the job market is as dynamic as we believe it will be next year, employers on the front end of the wave will have the advantage.