Wednesday 2nd September 2009
The Financial Fortnight That Was
In This Issue
Quote for Consideration
Financial Topic Demystified - Index Hugging
Fascinating Financial Fact - Vanguard's Volatility Chart
Market News
Investment strategies for a delayed retirement
Eureka Report articles
From the Archives - Inflation-linked bonds
Three Factor Model in Action
Case Study - Benchmarking your financial position
Other resource of interest
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Top 

Welcome to the latest edition of The Financial Fortnight That Was.

Since that last edition, equity markets have continued to provide solid gains and many Australian and global economic indicators have improved.  We provide the updated data in our market news section.

When might we get back to the levels of late 2007?  Vanguard's updated volatility chart provides some insights in our Fascinating Financial Facts section.

We have also added a new section - From the Archives - which looks at previous articles that have pertinence to current events.  The first article looks at Inflation Linked Bonds which have come back on the agenda thanks to an announcement that the federal government will commence re-issuing these bonds.
 
Also in this edition we:
  • discuss the issue of index hugging by major Australian share funds,
  • look at investment strategies for a delayed retirement,
  • provide a link to Scott Francis' latest Eureka Report articles,
  • link to Russell Investments Investor Toolkit,
  • discuss benchmarking your financial progress, and
  • provide evidence of the three factor model in action.
Enjoy the read!!

A Quote for Consideration 

"Investing is a strange business. It's the only one we know of where the more expensive the products get, the more customers want to buy them."

Anthony M. Gallea, William Patalon III
Blue Chip Books/Contrarian Investing
 
Financial Topic Demystified 
Index Hugging
 
We are bombarded in the media by large financial institutions telling us that they have the personnel and skills to find investors the best place to invest.  This highlights their active management approach to investing.  You would therefore expect to see significant differences between the portfolio of investments chosen by these managers and a straight index fund which invests in companies according to the current market composition.  You would also expect that the performance created by these funds provides a premium over the index return.
 
Unfortunately it seems that neither is necessarily the case.  This is especially the case for the large Australian share funds.  They seem to be composed of very similar allocations as an index.  This phenomenon has been called "Index Hugging".

Why  do these active fund managers pursue this approach?

One suggestion is that these funds become so large that it is very difficult for them to look and perform much different than the index.  The other commonly proposed reason is that these fund managers do not want to risk significantly under-performing the index, the common benchmark for analysing fund performance.  Therefore they guarantee that they will remain in the same ball park by having a very similar portfolio to the index.

The problem with this is that investors are paying much higher fees to these active fund managers compared to using a much cheaper index fund to capture the same or similar market return.

Without going into any more detail I think a recent article written by Scott Francis for the Eureka Report outlines some of the research and data around index hugging -
 
Active funds' dark secret

--------------------
 
To see how we apply index style funds in practice please take a look at the Building Portfolios page on our website.

Fascinating Financial Fact

Vanguard's Volatility Chart

With much more positive equity market conditions over recent months, especially compared to early March 2009, many are starting to ask how long till we get back to the levels of early November 2007.

Vanguard have recently updated their Volatility Chart which provides some useful data proving insight into this question.  It charts the growth of $10,000 invested in the Australian share market at the beginning of July 1978.  Over that time it also reports on the extent and length of market declines and recoveries.

March 6th was the bottom of the most recent decline.  To get there the market fell 48.3% and it took 16 months to do so.  The average decline since mid 1978 has been 24.6% and lasted 8.6 months.  So this latest decline has been much deeper and longer than usual.  The average time to recover from a decline has been 15.3 months.
 
However, the longest time to recover has been 63 months after the crash of 1987 - a decline of 43.5%.  A decline similar in magnitude to the one we have experienced through 2008 and early 2009.

We are now 6 months into a recover which suggests there is some way to go before getting back to 2007 levels.  The years following 1987 suggest there is a long way to go.

In the Financial Happennings Blog in this edition Scott Keefer has been asked a similar question by Morningstar journalist Fiona Harris.  Scott has looked at historical returns data to estimate how long it might take for investors to make up the losses experienced in 2008.

Please clink on the following link to view Vanguard's Volatility Chart for yourself.

Return to Top
Market News
 

ASX P/E Ratio and Dividend Yields

 

The P/E ratio is a common broad indicator of the price of shares.  It is a calculation of the price of shares compared to expected earnings.   A higher ratio indicates that share prices are more expensive.  The historical P/E ratio for the ASX has been between 14 & 15.  The dividend yield is the calculation of dividend payments divided by the market capitalisation of the company or index.  The historical average in Australia is around 4%.

 

As of August 25th the P/E ratio for the S&P/ASX 200 was 13.73.  The dividend yield was 4.24%.


Volatility Index (VIX)

 

Another index we are keeping an eye on in the USA is the CBOE Volatility Index.  This index purports to be a key measure of market expectations of near term volatility conveyed by the S&P 500 share index.  The higher the level of index, the higher are expectations for volatility in the S&P 500 index.  For more information on how the VIX is calculated please take a look at  - www.cboe.com/micro/vix/introduction.aspx

 

The close for the VIX on the 31st of August was at a level of 26.01.  This is slightly higher than the 12 month closing low of 18.81 but well off the 12 month closing high of  80.86.

 

Market Indices

 

 

Since last ed.

Since Start of 2009

1 Year

3 Year

5 Year

10 Year

Australian Shares

 

 

 

 

 

 

S&P - ASX 200 (accum)

5.54%

20.33%

-8.06%

7.00%

9.48%

NA *

International Shares

 

 

 

 

 

 

MSCI World - Ex Australia

3.66%

17.04%

-17.16%

-6.23%

2.21%

-0.26%

MSCI Emerging Markets

0.08%

42.81%

-2.32%

6.37%

15.70%

10.87%

Property

 

 

 

 

 

 

S&P - REIT (accum)

16.09%

4.49%

-34.14%

-20.69%

-6.65%

2.99%

S&P/Citigroup Global REIT - Ex Australia - World - AUD

10.99%

-2.46%

-24.52%

-14.73%

-2.01%

6.40%

Currency

 

 

 

 

 

 

US Exchange Rate

1.35%

21.15%

-2.85%

3.24%

3.66%

2.78%

Trade Weighted Index

0.91%

19.24%

-2.07%

1.34%

1.98%

1.70%

 * - Data unavailable as ASX 200 only commenced on 31st March 2000

 

General News
 
The following major economic parameters have been announced since the previous edition:
  • GDP for the June quarter up 0.6% - slightly better than expected.
  • 44% of company results better than expected, 18% below expectations during the recent company reporting season.
  • Business investment levels have risen by 3% in the 3 months to June rather than an expected fall of 5%.
  • RBA left official interest rates at 3.0% in the September board meeting.
  • Westpac-Melbourne Institue consumer confidence index has risen to 113.4 in August, a 3.7% rise on the back of a 9.3% rise in July.
Return to Top
Investment strategies for a delayed retirement - Morningstar article
Scott's Financial Happenings Blog - Posted Tuesday 21 July
 
Scott Keefer has recently asked for input by Fiona Harris,  contributor to the Morningstar online information site.  The topic Fiona was looking at was investment strategies for a delayed retirement.  The following is a copy of  the article.  To view the original please click on the link - Investment Strategies for a Delayed Retirement.

Delaying retirement calls for a back to basics approach to investing and a shift in attitude and expectations.
 
Financial advisers are telling clients to delay retirement and change their thinking when they say the global financial crisis (GFC) has robbed them of their retirement dreams.

"Clients are definitely reconsidering options to be more certain that they have sufficient assets to sustain the cost of living they require," A Clear Direction Financial Planning principal financial adviser Scott Keefer says.

"A lot of clients are playing it year by year, but we do have clients [delaying retirement]," HLB Mann Judd partner Michael Hutton says.

A survey recently conducted by Mercer of 519 working Australians aged 40-65 reveals just how many people are facing the retirement age dilemma.

Some 42 per cent of the survey's participants said they will have to delay their retirement as a result of the downturn. This number jumped to 60 per cent for those aged over 60.

In practical terms, this means working longer.  About 33 per cent of respondents said they could have to work up to four years longer. Meanwhile, 19 per cent said the impact of the downturn could mean an extra six years in the workforce.

"That's a fairly significant change to lifestyle," Ascent Private Wealth principal Gordon Thoms says. "That's a big change to have to work for another four years."
So is this possible? Can a pre-retiree get their retirement back on track in four to six years?

"Four to six years is an OK horizon," HLB Mann Judd Sydney partner Michael Hutton says. "Particularly if you're not drawing on assets plus you're putting money back and investment markets are behaving themselves."

Hutton calls it the "triple whammy" effect - but in a good way. He says by working longer, investors can save extra money. Also, they will need less money in retirement because it will be shorter. Finally, investment markets are on the way up, so investors can capitalise on the upswing.

Thoms agrees that a four to six year time horizon presents a good opportunity.

"Four to six years is plenty of time if you are invested in good quality assets."
The key is having a long-term investment strategy, investing in quality assets, achieving good diversification and not paying too much for this diversification. It's pretty straight forward really.

"It's not the most riveting story," Thoms says.

Making the money back

While financial planners interviewed were optimistic about investors' chances of recouping their losses by delaying retirement, the two wild cards are the amount that has been lost and how the investment portfolio is structured.

According to Keefer, the key factor is the value of assets an investor has lost.

"Let's say it is a balanced investor [with] 70 per cent growth assets and 30 per cent defensive assets whereby they have lost 18 per cent over the past 21 months (Nov 2007 - July 2009).  So $500,000 at the top of the market has now become $410,000.  But the other aspect to remember is that unless the portfolio has been rebalanced they now probably have a 40/60 portfolio with $240,000 of growth assets," Keefer says.

He says if the long term average return from the growth assets was consistently achieved of 6 per cent above inflation or 9 per cent per annum, it would take about four years for the $240,000 of growth assets to grow to $340,000.

Add inflation to the equation and it would take six years.

Regards,
Scott Keefer

Other blogs since the last edition have included:
 
Eureka Report Articles

Since our last edition Scott Francis has contributed another six articles to Alan Kohler's Eureka Report.  Click on the link below to be taken to this item:
 

7 August -  Can small caps stay ahead? - Small caps deserve a place in portfolios, but investors should not judge them on this year's performance alone.
 

14 August -  Why MTAA's wheels fell off - The 25% fall by what had been a stellar performer fuels critics arguments against its 'alternative asset' model.
 
26 August - Active funds' dark secret - Actively managed funds promise market-beating performances, but often have trouble just keeping pace.
 
Case Study - Benchmarking your financial progress
 
Recently a number of younger clients have held appointments with part of the discussion evolving around how well they were positioned to meet their future financial goals.

The difficulty at earlier stages of wealth accumulation is that you tend to be on lower levels of income compared to latter years of life and you therefore tend to have very luttle if any ability to save and build wealth.  Therefore it is difficult to know whether you will be able to reach long term goals such as retirement and the like.

A simple tool we use is Benchmarking your financial position in terms of stages of life.

One formula set out in Stanley and Danko's "The Millionaire Next Door" is Age multiplied by Pre Tax Household Income divided by 10.
By this formula, a 30 year old person with an income of $30,000, would have a target wealth of (30 � $30,000) / 10 which equals $90,000. 
 
This is a useful start, but we decided that a model more suited to the Australian context, and the realities of life, and could be developed.  Importantly, we think that the formula proposed by Stanley and Danko is unrealistic for people just starting work, and for those at the point of retirement.

Our approach is slightly more complex and rather than replicate the entire analysis here, for those interested please click on the following link to be taken to the article on our website -
 
Other resource of interest - Russell Investments - Investment Toolkit 

During my regular scan of the financial media I came across the Russell Investment website and was drawn to their Investor Toolkit section.

I thought they did a good job of simply covering important aspects of investing including:
- The case for investing
- A look at asset classes
- Diversifying your investments
- Compound Interest
- Inflation
- What not to do when it comes to investing
- The risk/return tradeoff
- The cycle of market emotions
- Timing or time in
- Risk v Return historical data - 2009 Financial Year edition
- When markets bounce back
- Positives outweigh the negatives
 
For a refresher on the core fundamentals of investinmg a small amount of time spent reading through these publications would be time well spent.
 
Click on the following link to be taken to the article - Investment Toolkit
Return to Top
From the Archives
Inflation-linked bonds need just one ingredient - Eureka Report article - 5th May 2009
 
PORTFOLIO POINT: Inflation-linked bonds, likely in the budget, might not be as exciting an opportunity as the concept suggests.
 
Return to top
Three Factor Model in Action 
Dimensional Fund Performance Graphs updated to the end of July 2009
 
Since our last edition we have updated the Dimensional Fund Performance Graphs page on our website.  The graphs show the performance of the Dimensional funds that we use to build investment portfolios for our clients.  They have been updated to contain data up until the end of July 2009.
 
Commentary:
 
The graphs show strong monthly returns over the month for the Australian share asset classes and Emerging Markets with international share investments relatively flat.
 
Over the long run, the graphs continue to clearly show the existence of the risk premiums (small, value and emerging markets) that the research tells us should exist.
 
Australian Share Trusts - 7 Year returns:

 

7 Yr Return

to July 2009

Premium over ASX 200

Accumulation Index

ASX 200 Accumulation Index

10.61%

-

Dimensional Australian Value Trust

13.50%

2.89%

Dimensional Australian Small Company Trust

15.06%

4.45%

 
International Share Trusts - 7 Year returns:
 

 

7 Yr Return

to July 2009

Premium over MSCI World (ex Australia) Index

MSCI World (ex Australia) Index

0.01%

-

Dimensional Global Value Trust

1.92%

1.91%

Dimensional Global Small Company Trust

3.46%

3.45%

Dimensional Emerging Markets Trust

13.04%

13.03%


NB - These premiums are higher than what we would expect going forward.
 
Please click on the following link to be taken to the graphs - Dimensional Fund Performance Graphs.
 
For anyone new to our website, it is important to point out that we build investment portfolios for clients based on the best available academic research.  Take a look at our Building Portfolios and Our Research Based Approach pages for more details.  In our view, this research compels us to use the three factor model developed by Fama and French.  In Australia, the most effective method of investing using this model is through trusts implemented by Dimensional Fund Advisors (www.dfaau.com).  We do not receive any form of commission or payment from Dimensional for using their trusts.  We use them because they provide the returns clients are entitled to from share markets.
 
However, academic theory is nothing if it can not be implemented and provide the returns that are promised by the research.  Therefore, we like to provide the historical returns of the funds that we use to build investment portfolios.

Please let us know if you have any feedback regarding these graphs by using the Request for More Information form to the right or via our User Voice feedback forum.
 
Requesting feedback 
   

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We welcome your feedback. 
 
I hope you have enjoyed reading the latest edition.  If you have any comments or suggestions for future topics please do not hesitate to get in contact.
 
Have a great fortnight!
 
Cheers,
Scott Keefer
 

The Financial Fortnight is a publication of A Clear Direction Financial Planning.  It contains general financial advice.  Readers should check this advice with a professional financial adviser before acting on any of the material contained in this email.

Scott Keefer
1 Park Road - PO Box 1688
Milton QLD 4064
(07) 3876 6223

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