Tuesday 14th October 2008
The Financial Fortnight That Was
In This Issue
Quote for Consideration
Financial Topic Demystified - Personal finance strategies in the context of the 'Credit Crisis'
Fascinating Financial Fact - The Fear Index
Market News
Panic could prove costly
Eureka Report Articles
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Greetings! 
 

Welcome to the latest edition of The Financial Fortnight That Was.

What a fortnight since our last edition!  Thank goodness we have experienced a strong day on markets yesterday and today has also started favourably.

 

In this edition we take a look at those things you can control and discuss some personal finance strategies in the context of the cureent credit crisis, we take a look at the Fear Index, provide a summary of the movements in markets over the past fortnight and suggest that now is not the time to panic. We hope that you find the material informative and relevant!

A Quote for Consideration 

"To reduce risk it is necessary to avoid a portfolio whose securities are all highly correlated with each other. One hundred securities whose returns rise and fall in near unison afford little protection than the uncertain return of a single security."
Harry Markowitz, Portfolio Selection: Efficient Diversification of Investments, 1968
 

Financial Topic Demystified 
Personal finance strategies in the context of the 'Credit Crisis'
 

At A Clear Direction we like to focus on things that we can control.  The question to be asked in the current circumstances is what can we control?

 

Scott Francis has joined Warren Boland's ABC radio program - Weekends with Warren - for the past 4 Saturdays.  In the segment conducted on Saturday 4th October Scott talked through a range of strategies to be considered in the context of our current market

conditions

 

The following is a brief summary of the segment:

 

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Strategy 1 - Pay Down 'high interest' non - tax deductible debt (e.g. store cards and credit cards).

 

This strategy makes great sense - and probably should be undertaken with a greater sense of urgency than before.  This is because with the slowing of the economy comes increased unemployment and a tighter financial landscape (for example, perhaps taxes might be raised rather than the stream of tax cuts that we have had over recent times).

 

Therefore it is important to get rid of the high interest debt burden that takes some money (interest payments) out of your pocket every week.

 

There is more than $40 billion in credit card debt.  That is more than $2,000 for every man, women and child in America.

 

 

Strategy 2 - Regularly Investing in Growth Assets

 

For most people a long time from retirement, regular investments into growth assets is actually what is happening in their superannuation - their employer contributes 9% of their income and (after 15% contributions tax is taken out) this money is used to purchase investment assets.

 

Many people also contribute regularly to an investment portfolio. 

 

This is a great strategy for exactly times like these - when investment markets fall in value and you are making regular contributions it means that you are continuing to buy investments at lower prices - putting you in a great position when markets do rebound. 

 

 

Strategy 3 - Borrowing to Invest

 

Borrowing to invest in any growth assets - property or shares - increases the expected return and the volatility of the portfolio.

 

While investment returns are volatile, the real volatility of this strategy is revealed.  Whereas share markets have fallen in value by 30%, someone 50% geared into the market has seen the value of their worth fall by 60%.

 

Borrowing to invest intentionally increases the volatility of an investment portfolio - and should always be used with caution.  It is a legitimate strategy - however there are risks that you must be aware of.

 

 

Strategy 4 - Making Additional Mortgage Repayments

 

This is a sound strategy at any time.  You increase your financial position by reducing your debt, you free up future cash flow because you now have a lower loan and you are on the way to being debt free more quickly.

 

There are forecasts about property prices falling in value.  Certainly we have seen this happen in the USA.  I don't put a lot of faith in forecasts either way - let's face it the future is unknown - however if property prices did fall then a person who had a smaller mortgage is in a better position to cope with that (for example if they sold their property).

 

Making extra mortgage repayments 'earns' you the rate of interest saved, likely to be around 9% at the moment - and is tax free.  Getting ahead on the mortgage also puts you in stronger financial shape to weather any increase in interest rates (although at the moment it looks like rate cuts are more likely in the short time).

 

It remains a sound and sensible financial strategy.  If we do get an interest rate cut next week, and if that cut is passed on to mortgage holders, then a strategy might be to keep your repayments at the same level and pay off more of your loan.

 

 

Strategy 5 - Salary Sacrificing to Superannuation

 

The core of this strategy is that there is a tax saving between taking income, or redirecting it to superannuation as a salary sacrifice.

 

For the average income earner their tax rate is 31.5%.  The rate of tax on a superannuation contribution is 15%.

 

So, if you earn $10,000 usually you pay tax of $3,150 and end up with $6,850 working for you.

 

However, if you salary sacrifice your money to superannuation you end up with $8,500 working for you after paying 15% tax ($1,500).

 

Keep in mind that you can control where your superannuation contributions go - you can direct these to be made to a cash investment option, a share based investment option or (most commonly) a 'balanced' superannuation fund made up of some shares, cash and property assets.

 

The strategy still works well despite the current market volatility because the key to the strategy is the saving in tax.  For people close to retirement they might choose to see their salary sacrifice contributions invested in a more conservative option such as a 'cash' option - proving them with greater certainty that their superannuation account is increasing in the lead up to retirement.

 

 

Strategy 6 - Income Planning for Retirement

 

More and more people are using their superannuation assets at retirement to pay them a pension (income stream) in retirement - particularly now that all superannuation withdrawals after the age of 60 are tax free.

 

For example, a couple with superannuation assets of $200,000 might want to draw on these assets at the rate of $10,000 a year, to supplement the age pension that they would receive (assuming that they are of age pension age).

 

The best way to plan for this income is to have at least 5 - 7 years of drawings set aside in cash and fixed interest investments.  That way, regardless of how volatile investment markets are (and they are extremely volatile at the moment), you know where the next 5 - 7 years of drawing are set aside.

 

If the rest of the money is invested in shares and property, these investments would be paying income (dividends and distributions) over time - so they are topping up the cash account.  The income from shares and property tend to grow over time, which helps protect your situation from inflation.

 

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A copy of the notes can be found on our ABC Radio Segment Materials page on our website.
Fascinating Financial Fact
 

The Fear Index - Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX)

 
A term which has been referred to a lot more often in the financial press of late is the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) otherwise known as the Fear Index.
 
Commentators refer to this index as a proxy for the amount of volatility in trading levels in the S&P 500 Index in the USA.  The index measures the cost of using options as insurance against declines in the S&P 500 and as such represents a measure of the market's expectation of volatility over the next 30 day period.  Investors believe that a high value of VIX translates into a greater degree of market uncertainty, while a low value of VIX is consistent with greater stability.
 
A chart of the price history of the index can be found at the following site:
From the chart you can see that the index has risen sharply over recent weeks.  October the 10th saw the VIX reached its intraday high of 75.92 suggesting there is a great deal of fear in the USA market at present.  Some good news though, it has fallen by 15 points through Monday's trade (13th October) on the S&P 500.  So fingers crossed this is a trend that will continue.
 
Another interesting consideration at this point in time is Warren Buffett's much quoted statement - "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful" - something to ponder.
 
For more complex information on how the VIX is calculated take a look at the following website -
 
 
Market News

ASX P/E Ratio and Dividend Yields

The P/E ratio is a common broad indicator of the price of shares.  It is a calculation of the price of shares compared to expected earnings.   A higher ratio indicates that share prices are more expensive.  The historical P/E ratio for the ASX has been between 14 & 15.  The dividend yield is the calculation of dividend payments divided by the market capitalisation of the company or index.  The historical average in Australia is around 4%.

As of October 7th the P/E ratio for the S&P/ASX 200 was 10.18.  The dividend yield was 5.39%.
 
Market Indices
Since our previous edition, all growth asset markets have fallen significantly in value.  The S&P ASX200 Index has fallen by 19.25% from 26th of September to the 10th of October.  It is now down 41.22% from the same time last year and down 37.53% for the calendar year so far.  (The ASX200 clawed back 5.56% on Monday 13th)
 
The MSCI World Index - ex Australia, a measure of the global market, has fallen 25.20% over the same period.  The index is down 44.13% from the same time last year and down 40.82% for the calendar year so far. (The index clawed back 9.20% on Monday 13th)
 
Emerging markets have also experienced negative movement with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index falling 21.81% since the 26th of September.  This index is down 46.67% from the same time last year and down 45.56% for the calendar year so far. (The index clawed back 5.54% on Monday 13th)
 
Listed property has not been spared over the past fortnight.  Australian listed property trusts have fallen 21.83%.  The index is down 54.09% from the same time last year and also down 46.21% for the calendar year so far. (The index clawed back 7.67% on Monday 13th)
 
The S&P/Citigroup Global REIT - Ex Australia Index has fallen over the fortnight by 4.41%.  This measure is down 16.49% from the same time last year and down 4.21% for the calendar year so far.
 
Exchange Rates
As of 4pm the 10th of October, the value of the Australian dollar has fallen sharply against major benchmarks since the last edition.  It is down 21.18% against the US Dollar at .6511.  It is now down 27.11% from the same time last year and down 25.69% for the calendar year so far.  Since September 26th the Aussie has also fallen 18.78% against the Trade Weighted Index, with the index now at 53.2.  This puts it down by 25.34% since the same time last year and down 22.56% for the calendar year so far.  (The Trade Weighted Index measures The Australian dollar against a basket of foreign currencies.)
 
General News
 
Last Tuesday the board of the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to reduce the official cash rate by 100 points from 7% to 6% in response to the concerns in credit markets around the world.  Commentary also suggests that the RBA will continue to reduce rates in coming months.
 
The Australian Bureau of Statistic has released the latest employment data to the end of September 2008.  The unemployment rate has increased 0.2 points to 4.3% with participation rates remaining steady at 65.1% and employment growing by 2,200 persons.
 
The ANZ job survey has found that the number of jobs advertised in September has fallen by 1.4%
 
The ABS has also released the following data:
- personal finance commitments have decreased 5.2% in August
- building activity has remained flat in the June quarter 2008
- Australia's trade surplus has risen in August increasing by $318 million compared to July

Panic could prove costly - Courier Mail article
Scott's Financial Happenings Blog - Posted Sunday 05 October

Scott Francis has provided commentary towards an article written by Melanie Christiansen and published on page 10 0f Saturday's Courier Mail - 4th October 2008 - Panic could prove costly.
 
In the article, the following comments were attributed to Scott:
 
"Another financial planner, Scott Francis, said the situation might be worrying for those close to or newly retired, but he said for cashed up younger investors, there was "a little stench of opportunity'' in the air".
 
"I think this is a really exciting time for people far enough away from retirement not to be threatened,'' he said.
 
THE current financial market turmoil presents an "exciting'' opportunity for well-placed investors.
 
Instead of worrying about reduced values and selling shares when prices are low, he urges investors to take advantage of the situation.
 
"The price of shares now reflects all the fear and uncertainty, so you're potentially selling at a really bad time,'' he says.
 
"I think this is a really exciting time for people far enough away from retirement not to be threatened.''
 
Mr Francis says it is important to remember that shares should not just be judged on their values, but also the "pretty attractive income stream'' from dividends and also their franking credits.
 
He also advises people to stick with their superannuation, despite recent falling returns.
 
"Right now, it's distressing that the value of super is falling. But the nice thing if you are far enough away from retirement, you're still buying more assets at significantly lower prices than you had to pay 12 months ago.''
 
But he would encourage more people to take control of their super, rather than simply accepting the fund's default holding. 

Other blogs over the past fortnight have included:

 
30th September
 
30th September
 
1st October
 
6th October

 

Eureka Report Articles
 
Since our last edition Scott Francis has contributed another three articles to Alan Kohler's Eureka Report.  Click on the link below to be taken to this item:
 
29th September - LICs show their mettle - Market participants expect listed investment companies to continue the outperformance they have shown in the past 12 months.
 
6th October - Inside the Future Fund - Like SMSFs, the Future Fund is investing to provide retirement income. Unlike most SMSFs, a big slice of its portfolio is in global shares.

8th October - Yields the new king? - One big rate cut, and the possibility of more, take cash rates below yields on shares.
 
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We hope you have enjoyed reading the latest edition.  If you have any comments or suggestions for future topics please do not hesitate to get in contact.
 
Have a great fortnight!
 
Cheers,
The Two Scotts
 

The Financial Fortnight is a publication of A Clear Direction Financial Planning.  It contains general financial advice.  Readers should check this advice with a professional financial adviser before acting on any of the material contained in this email.

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