Tuesday 22nd April 2008
The Financial Fortnight That Was
In This Issue
Financial Topic Demystified - The importance of scientific research
Fascinating Financial Fact
Eureka Report Articles
Market News
On the Lighter Side
Monday's Money Minute Podcasts
No tax from managed funds this year? - Think again
Quick Links
 
 

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Greetings! 
 
Welcome to the latest edition of The Financial Fortnight That Was.  In this edition we introduce a new section - Fascinating Financial Facts.  We could have called it the Financial Fortnight Fascinating Financial Facts but thought better of this tongue twister.  We hope through adding this section we can provide some interesting and fun information about the financial world.
 
This edition looks at a scientific research approach to building investing portfolios, provides a summary of the movements in markets over the past fortnight and looks at the tax implications of distributions made by managed funds. We hope that you find the material informative and relevant.  As always, if you have any comments or suggestions for future editions please do not hesitate to be in contact.
 
Enjoy the read!

A Quote for Consideration

"The results of this study are not good news for investors who purchase actively managed mutual funds. No investment style generates positive abnormal returns over the 1965-1998 sample period. The sample includes 4,686 funds covering 26,564 fund-years."

James L. Davis

Mutual Fund Performance and Manager Style, Financial Analysts Journal 57, p. 19-27, 2001

 

Financial Topic Demystified 
The importance of scientific research
 

Every investment manager will report that they have the research capability to identify strategies to provide strong investment performance over a given timeframe.  This is one of the reasons people poor in billions of dollars into the coffers of managed funds (including superannuation).  This research can take on elements of a qualitative (investment manager style or expertise) and quantitative approach (statistical analysis).

 

So what is the research that investors should be taking notice of?

 

The following are excerpts from a document we have launched today on our website - Our Research Based Approach - which highlights the scientific research we rely on to build investment portfolios.

 

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Importance of Scientific / Academic Research

 

Our approach to building investment portfolios is focused on scientific / academic research.  We believe this is crucial as this research has stood up to the rigours of a peer review process whereby it is assessed for its quality before being published.  This scrutiny works to ensure that the research can be relied upon when making important investment decisions.

 

Click here to be taken to the research paper on Importance of Scientific / Academic Research

 

Importance of Asset Allocation

 

Research shows that this mix of asset classes is the number 1 determinant of investment returns.  The first and most important stage of the building an investment portfolio is to carefully consider what mix of assets is best for your portfolio.  This will be different for every person.

 

Click here to be taken to the research papers on Importance of Asset Allocation

 

Efficient Market Theory

 

Research shows that no investor or even professional fund manager can consistently gain a reliable advantage over all of the other market participants.  Asset prices quickly and fully reflect the knowledge and expectations of investors. i.e. stock selection and market timing provide little value.  Therefore we do not pick particular stocks or markets and consider that trying to time market entry is not productive.

 

Click here to be taken to the research papers on Efficient Market Theory

 

Active Fund Managers Underperform

 

The research overwhelmingly has shown that active investment managers do not consistently outperform the market.  We therefore choose an asset class approach to choosing investments using index style investments. 

 

Click here to be taken to the research papers on Active Fund Managers Underperform

 

Diversification

 

Research shows that diversification across different asset classes and within asset classes reduces portfolio volatility in the longer term.  We therefore recommend investment in all the major asset classes - cash, fixed interest, Australian shares, international shares and property and within those asset classes use an index style approach.

 

Click here to be taken to the research paper on Diversification

 

Three Factor Model

 

Research shows that exposing portfolios to three factors will very reliably explain virtually all portfolio performance - the market, company size and the value effect.  The research, which has been consistently repeated in markets around the world, shows that two factors - company size and value (or company health) are sources of above market average returns.  We therefore expose investment portfolios to all three factors.

 

Click here to be taken to the research papers on the Three Factor Model

 

Imputation Credits

 

Research shows that franking credits are not priced into the value of shares in Australia.  This is why we recommend holding a slightly greater higher allocation of Australian shares compared to international shares and property within portfolios.

 

Click here to be taken to the research paper on Imputation Credits

 

The Impact of Fees on Returns

 

The research shows that higher fees lead to poorer performance.  Investment portfolios should be accessed on a low cost basis thus adding to the bottom line investment result.

 

Click here to be taken to the research paper on The Impact of Fees on Returns

 

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How Do We Apply This?

 

We distil all of this research to come up with what we believe is the very best approach to building investment portfolios based on the best scientific research available.  Please take a look at our Building Portfolios page on our website for more detail.

 

Fascinating Financial Fact
 

Our first ever Fascinating Financial Fact looks at the results of a study conducted by David J. Leinweber, from Berkeley, that highlights the traps of data mining when researching investing strategies - Stupid Data Miner Tricks.  After analysing US stockmarket returns from 1982 to 1993 he found that:

 

The production of butter in Bangladesh explained 75% of the variation in US stockmarket returns.  The production of butter in Bangladesh and the US; the sheep population in Bangladesh and the US; and the production of cheese in the US explained 99% of the variation in US stockmarket returns (which is an extraordinarily high amount of explanatory power).

 

Of course this is an absurdity but highlights a problem with data mining investment returns.

 
Eureka Report Articles Update 

Since our last edition Scott Francis has contributed another article to Alan Kohler's Eureka Report.  Click on the link below to be taken to this article:

 

Prickly Hedges - If you are relying on a multi asset class fund manager, you need to be aware of - and comfortable with - how they are managing your underlying portfolio.

Click here to be forwarded to Scott's Eureka Report Articles

Market News
 

Market Indices

Since our previous edition, Australian and global sharemarkets have experienced mixed movements over the past fortnight.  The S&P ASX200 Index has fallen 3.38% from the 4th to the 18th of April.  It is now down 12.94% from the same time last year and down 14.36% for the calendar year (2008) so far.  The MSCI World - ex Australia, a measure of the global market, has risen 1.29% over the same period.  The index is down 9.47% from the same time last year and down 7.52% for the calendar year so far.

 

Emerging markets have also experienced positive movement with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rising 2.38% since the 4th of April.  It is up 14.95% from the same time last year but down 6.68% for the calendar year so far.

 

Property trusts have lost some of the upward momentum since the 4th of April with the S&P ASX 200 A-Reit Index (formerly known as the Property Trust Index) falling by 4.35%.  The index is down 32.25% from the same time last year and also down 20.99% for the calendar year so far..  The S&P/Citigroup Global Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) Index, a measure of the global property market, has fallen 0.40% over the same period.  It is down 19.74% from the same time last year but now only down 0.48% for the calendar year so far.

 

Exchange Rates

As of 4pm the 18th of April, the value of the Australian dollar had risen since the 4th of April with the Aussie dollar up 2.93% against the US Dollar at .9384.   It is up 12.21% from the same time last year and up 6.64% for the calendar year so far.  Since April 4th the Aussie has risen 2.47% against the Trade Weighted Index now at 70.5.  This puts it up by 4.14% since the same time last year and up 2.62% for the calendar year so far.  (The Trade Weighted Index measures The Australian dollar against a basket of foreign currencies.)

 

General News

Since our last edition the Australian Bureau of Statistics has released the latest employment data with the unemployment rate rising to 4.1% in March.  Participation rates have remained stable at 65.2% with employment growing by 14,800 over the month.  The ABS has also released that Australia's population has risen to 21,097,100 by the end of September 2007, an increase of 1.5% over the year.

 

On the Lighter Side

I'm thinking of leaving my husband, complained the stock broker's wife. "All he ever does is stand at the end of the bed and tell me how good things are going to be."

Monday's Money Minute Podcats Update
 

In the most recent podcast, Scott Francis looks at the issue of Planning for Longevity Risk.

 

Click here to be forwarded to Monday's Money Minute Podcasts

 
No tax from managed funds this year? - Think again
Scott's Financial Happenings Blog - Posted Monday 14 April
 

In the lead up to the end of financial year, we are starting to see a few media stories providing advice on how to prepare for the end of the "income tax" year.  At the same time we continue to see reports about the negative returns on equity markets with the red ink being pulled out of the drawer for the first time in a number of years for managed funds, including superannuation.

 

My guess is that many investors will be thinking that there will not be any nasty tax issues in their managed fund portfolios due to the negative performance figures being reported on websites and statements.  They might actually be hoping for some tax losses from these funds to write off against their other forms of income.  Unfortunately, the bottom line returns of managed funds hide the real story.

 

Many of the major managed fund providers report ongoing performance figures through their websites outlining the capital growth of the fund along with the distributions that have been paid out to unit holders.  Unfortunately not all providers provide this breakdown throughout the year and some have yet to provide the data up to the end of the March quarter 2008.  The broadest set of data available is up to the end of February 2008.  This sample is far from representative but provides anecdotal evidence of what is going on in terms of managed fund returns and distributions.

 

Fund

Growth

Distribution

Total Return

AXA Aust Equity Growth Fund

-20.10%

19.80%

-0.30%

AXA Equity Imputation Fund

-26.30%

25.90%

-0.40%

BT Aust Share Fund

-11.41%

12.28%

0.87%

BT Imputation Fund

-4.42%

5.06%

0.64%

Challenger Aust Share Fund

-14.66%

6.88%

-7.78%

MLC Aust Share Fund

-14.70%

11.60%

-3.10%

MLC Vanguard Aust Shares Index

-5.20%

3.30%

-1.90%

Suncorp Aust Shares Fund

-21.42%

15.87%

-5.55%

 

The dividend yield across the ASX200 at the end of February was 4.3%.  If we use this as a proxy assume the best case scenario that all of this dividend yield is fully franked and is received by investors on the 30% marginal tax bracket, this part of the distribution quoted above would be received free from tax.

 

By implication, this means that the remaining part of the distribution is a capital gain that has been realised by these funds.  If we again assume the best case scenario that these capital gains are from assets held for greater than 12 months, and thus receive the 50% discount on capital gains, this would leave the following level of distributions to be taxed at an investor's marginal tax rate:

 

Fund

Distribution after removing franked div

Taxable distribution

AXA Aust Equity Growth Fund

15.50%

7.75%

AXA Equity Imputation Fund

21.60%

10.80%

BT Aust Share Fund

7.98%

3.99%

BT Imputation Fund

0.76%

0.38%

Challenger Aust Share Fund

2.58%

1.29%

MLC Aust Share Fund

7.30%

3.65%

MLC Vanguard Aust Shares Index

0.00%

0.00%

Suncorp Aust Shares Fund

11.57%

5.79%

 

Only MLC Vanguard Australian Shares Index (an Index fund) would not be passing on any (or very little) taxable distributions to investors.  It is interesting to note that this is the only index fund amongst the list.

 

In all likelihood, the MLC Vanguard Australian Shares Index would be passing on some taxable distributions as well but it would be significantly less compared to the other funds.

 

If we take this analysis to next level and reduce total returns by the tax on the taxable distributions (assuming a marginal tax rate of 31.5%) it provides the following data

 

Fund

Total Return before tax

Taxable dist

Reduction in return at 31.5% tax rate

Total Return after tax

AXA Aust Equity Growth Fund

-0.30%

7.75%

2.44%

-2.74%

AXA Equity Imputation Fund

-0.40%

10.80%

3.40%

-3.80%

BT Aust Share Fund

0.87%

3.99%

1.26%

-0.39%

BT Imputation Fund

0.64%

0.38%

0.12%

0.52%

Challenger Aust Share Fund

-7.78%

1.29%

0.41%

-8.19%

MLC Aust Share Fund

-3.10%

3.65%

1.15%

-4.25%

MLC Vanguard Aust Shares Index

-1.90%

0.00%

0.00%

-1.90%

Suncorp Aust Shares Fund

-5.55%

5.79%

1.82%

-7.37%

 

An already disappointing investment result just became that bit worse.  It is really this after tax return that is most important to investors as it provides the return that is actually going into (or in this case out of) their pockets.

 

The same type of analysis is relevant to the superannuation environment; however the impact is not as great due the maximum 15% tax rate for income produced within a superannuation fund.

 

At this point some may be saying hang on, what about the capital loss (negative growth) that has been reported by the funds.  Unless investors sell their units held in the fund on or before the 30th of June, these losses would not be realised and therefore not be able to be claimed as a write-off for tax purposes.

 

I openly admit this is a fairly simplistic approach to the data, but definitely provides some anecdotal evidence of the impact of an active approach to investing in terms of tax consequences.

 

Regards,

Scott

 

Other blogs over the past fortnight:

 

17th April - The cost of trying to beat the market

20th April - The Untouchabulls? - or maybe not so Untouchables

Scott Francis interviewed on Channel 9's Brisbane Extra

Since our last edition Scott Francis has been interviewed for a Channel 9 Brisbane Extra story on the planned MBF merger with BUPA and whether MBF policy holders should decide to vote in favour of the merger.  Click on the link below to be taken to a transcript of this story:

 

MBF Merge

 
We hope you have enjoyed reading the latest edition.  If you have any comments or suggestions for future topics please do not hesitate to get in contact.
 
Have a great fortnight!
 
Cheers,
The Two Scotts
 

The Financial Fortnight is a publication of A Clear Direction Financial Planning.  It contains general financial advice.  Readers should check this advice with a professional financial adviser before acting on any of the material contained in this email.

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