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Featured Video China Real Estate Bubbling?
We know China is growing at an astronomical rate. But is it real or artificial growth created by the government? Watch the video as Adam Johnson reports on the construction boom in Kangbashi, a city in China's Inner Mongolia originally designed to accommodate around 1 million people that currently has only 30,000 residents. . |
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Dear Readers,
Inflation, deflation, stagflation. Lately, it seems all you hear about these days have the words "flation" at the end of it. Its either that or the printing press, QE, Bernanke, the Dollar, commodities, housing, and of course, gold.
In the media, one of the biggest problem our economy faces is inflation. The governments (both in the US and Canada) will undoubtedly have to raise interest rates which cannot remain at these levels.
We're seeing our purchasing power diminish substantially. Gas prices are too high, food prices are surging astronomically, and everything else just costs more.
Heck, I went to get my haircut the other day and guess what I saw? A big red sign telling me that prices have increased. If my hair dresser is feeling the effects of inflation, imagine what others are feeling?
When you combine the amount of money being printed with an extended period of record low current interest rates, it starts getting scary.
Generally, raising interest rates is the prime combatant of inflationary pressures. In the United States, short term interest rates are decided by the Federal Reserve (see What the Fed Doesn't Want You to Know by clicking here.)
Interest rates directly affect the credit market (loans) because higher interest rates make borrowing more costly. By changing interest rates, the Fed tries to achieve maximum employment, stable prices and level growth. As interest rates drop, consumer spending increases, and this in turn stimulates economic growth.
Contrary to popular belief, excessive economic growth can in fact be very detrimental. At one extreme, an economy that is growing too fast can experience hyperinflation, resulting in major problems.
But so far, has this happened?
Sure, we're experiencing some minor growth and a double-dip is unlikely (or so they say). But the fact is, current inflationary pressures are as a result of A LOT of new money being created - plain and simple.
While inflation is a major issue, it is not the only factor informing the Fed's decisions on interest rates. For example, the Fed might ease interest rates during a financial crisis to provide liquidity (flexibility to get out of investments) to U.S. financial markets, thus preventing a market meltdown. This has been the clear goal of our recent economic crisis.
While the meltdown already happened, the printing of money has stimulated the stock market enough to bring it back to the highs of 2008, and nearing the highs of 2007.
But while the stock market has performed, the economy really hasn't bounced back as strong. The amount of borrowing by the US is still not enough to get our economies back to where they were just a few years ago. Combine that with the growth our economies need to achieve to replace all the lost jobs, plus the amount of borrowing that's being done at current interest rates, and we end up with a serious problem.
How does that relate to your portfolio?
The impact of inflation on your portfolio depends on the type of securities you hold. If you invest only in stocks, worrying about inflation shouldn't keep you up at night. Over the long run, a company's revenue and earnings should increase at the same pace as inflation. I think we're already seeing that in our markets. As the money supply increases, so have the prices of everything else - including stocks.
The exception to this is stagflation.
The combination of a bad economy with an increase in costs is bad for stocks (which is what is happening as we speak.) Companies are in the same situation as a normal consumer - the more cash it carries, the more its purchasing power decreases with increases in inflation.
The main problem with stocks and inflation is that a company's returns tend to be overstated. In times of high inflation, a company may look like it's prospering, when really inflation is the reason behind the growth (especially when inflation wasn't created by growth). When analyzing financial statements, it's also important to remember that inflation can wreak havoc on earnings depending on what technique the company is using to value inventory.
Fixed-income investors are the hardest hit by inflation. Suppose that a year ago you invested $1,000 in a Treasury bill with a 10% yield. Now that you are about to collect the $1,100 owed to you, is your $100 (10%) return real? Of course not! Assuming inflation was positive for the year, your purchasing power has fallen and, therefore, so has your real return. We have to take into account the chunk inflation has taken out of your return. If inflation was 4%, then your return is really 6%.
This example highlights the difference between nominal interest rates and real interest rates. The nominal interest rate is the growth rate of your money, while the real interest rate is the growth of your purchasing power. In other words, the real rate of interest is the nominal rate reduced by the rate of inflation. In our example, the nominal rate is 10% and the real rate is 6% (10% - 4% = 6%).
As an investor, you must look at your real rate of return.
Unfortunately, investors often look only at the nominal return and forget about their purchasing power altogether.
The best way to combat this scenario is to invest in inflation-hedging bets while maintaining your diversity in stocks. This means putting your money in hard assets like real estate or precious metals such as silver and gold while adding stock positions tied to the mining and resource sectors.
As mentioned in the above scenario, If you invest only in stocks, worrying about inflation shouldn't keep you up at night as a company's revenue and earnings should increase at the same pace as inflation.
But if you factor in mining and resource based investments into the equation, there is an opportunity to not only beat inflation, but also protect yourself against stagflation.
One could write a 1,000 page paper on inflation, stagflation, or deflation. But the point I am trying to make is simple. We're in unchartered waters where inflation is apparent but growth isn't. The Fed is printing money and while it worked on the stock market, it has yet to take any major affect on both housing and employment.
The US' True Concerns
The Fed isn't worried about inflation. Its worried about deflation. One look at the housing situation and you can see the pressures of deflation on the US economy. Housing prices continue to drop while no amount of QE or record low interest rates can change that.
No one is buying US treasuries, except for the Fed (see Right Under Your Nose.) So regardless of Bernanke's hint of no QE3, I find it hard to believe it will just end. And if it does, it won't be long before it comes back. The Fed has no recourse but to continue quantitative easing to avoid an economic collapse. As I have said before, they'll just call it something else.
And guess what that means?
Stocks will continue to rise. Prices will continue to rise. And Gold will continue to rise.
Even after the recent commodities pullback, gold is once again hovering above $1500. I still think it's going higher.
Aside from the billionaire investors, pension funds, universities, and private individuals buying gold, the world's biggest and fastest growing national economies are in the process of accumulating mass amounts of gold.
Regardless of what you read in the headlines, the true buyers of gold are the biggest and fastest growing countries such as China, India, and Russia - not hedge funds and speculative investors.
A few weeks ago, I already told you that China will be diversifying its trillions of dollars of reserves into oil and precious metals (see Age of America Over.) They have already announced an intention to raise their national reserves by nearly 850%, or 10,000 tons by the end of the decade. That's an estimated half a trillion U.S. dollars worth of gold. In the first two months of this year, China has already boosted their national holdings by 200 tons.
As the world's largest gold producer, China churned out 350.9 tons in 2010, but it wasn't enough to satisfy the overall total demand of more than 700 tons. As demand continues to outpace supply, we can expect China to import more bullion. But China won't tell anyone how much it has bought, until it has actually bought it. Why would they bid up prices amongst themselves? As 2011 moves forward, I expect China to shock the world with a lot more purchases in gold. They're buying on the dips, why aren't you?
The Biggest Buyer of Gold
While China as a country is buying big, regular Chinese investors are also snapping up gold bars and coins, buying more than ever before in the first quarter of 2011 and overtaking Indian buyers as the world's biggest purchasers of the metal.
The World Gold Council said that China's investment demand for gold more than doubled to 90.9 metric tons in the first three months of the year, outpacing India's modest rise to 85.6 tons. That means China now accounts for 25% of the world's gold investment demand, while India accounts for 23%.
Last year, India purchased nearly 750 tons of gold, smashing their previous year's record by nearly 40%. Russia, not to be outdone, bought up two-thirds of their entire national production. We're seeing a major change in the world. The developing nations, both Russia and India, want to own more gold. China is undoubtedly doing what it can to beat out the US.
But as powerful and influential as these three developing countries are, they are still under the influence of the US dollar, the world's reserve currency. That means most of its international business is done using the Greenback...and that means they need to hedge against a falling Dollar.
So even as massive headlines appear, screaming a fall in commodities and precious metals prices, gold keeps climbing.
If you haven't already jumped on the bandwagon, it's not too late. Sure gold is at all time highs. But a smart investor knows to buy in a bull market and sell in a bear market.
The bulls are still stampeding. Don't get run over.
Until next week,
Ivan Lo
Equedia Weekly
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Great Results, Not So Great Market
A Kiska Metals Update
Kiska Metals (TSX-V: KSK) announced some great results this past Wednesday drilling 453.2 metres averaging 0.72 g/t Gold, 3.2 g/t Silver and 0.12% Copper at Raintree West.
That's equal to 1.01 g/t* gold over 453.2 metres!
Included in that interval was 328.6 metres averaging 0.93 g/t Au, 3.7 g/t Ag, 0.16% Cu, 0.04% Pb, and 0.36% Zn (1.31 g/t gold equivalent).
Its not everyday you see results like that from just any junior. As a matter of fact, you rarely see results like this.
Its these continued positive drill results that has me comfortable with my investment into Kiska Metals.
Kiska has been consistently drilling significant numbers ever since they started a few years ago. Last year alone, they drilled 114.9 metres of 1.251 g/t gold and 0.23% copper (1.74 g/t gold-equivalent***) at Island Mountain and drilled 83.0 metres of 1.2 g/t gold, 11.8 g/t silver, 0.06% copper, 0.53% lead and 1.08% zinc at Raintree West (2.49 g/t gold-equivalent****.)
I think the market should've reacted a lot better to the news release but I understand this is not the best time for any junior explorer's share price, regardless of news. The markets overall are weak and will more than likely stay that way throughout the summer months.
But I am okay with that.
Based on Kiska's recent announcement, I expect even more good results to come.
Why?
Back in 2009, Kiska had drilled across a major fault structure at Raintree West and intersected a modest 97.2 metres averaging 0.61 g/t gold, 6.9 g/t silver, 0.16% copper, 0.24% lead and 0.59% zinc (1.04 g/t gold-equivalent).
This year's follow-up of that modest intercept has just shown us the potential for significant expansion.
The new results from their recent announcement indicate that the grades of the Raintree West porphyry system improve to the north and west, while remaining open to expansion to the north, west, south and at depth.
This new large porphyry centre has no clear geophysical signature which leads Kiska to conclude that other porphyry centres with subtle geophysical signatures may exist beyond the long list of obvious magnetic and IP-defined targets.
Kiska is not just exploring one small deposit. They are exploring and successfully drilling on a brand new district.
Take a look at some of these results:
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In the last few years since Kiska started exploration work on this property, they have continually impressed me with their drill results.
I am looking forward to more results from Kiska throughout this year as they continue with their massive 37,000m drill program.
You can read the original report on Kiska by Clicking Here
*Kiska Metals is both a client of ours, and an advertiser. We also own options, and stock purchased in the open market representing a significant portion of our junior exploration portfolio. Some of my friends own Kiska too.
* Gold equivalent calculations based on full recoveries and $990 per ounce gold, $15.40 per ounce silver and $2.91 per pound copper
** Gold equivalent calculations based on full recoveries and $990 per ounce gold, $15.40 per ounce silver, $2.91 per pound copper, $0.92 per pound lead and $1.14 per pound zinc.
****Gold equivalent calculations based on full recoveries and $550 per ounce gold, $8 per ounce silver, $1.50 per pound copper.
****** Gold equivalent calculations based on full recoveries and $550 per ounce gold, $8 per ounce silver, $1.50 per pound copper, $0.60 per pound lead and $0.45 per pound zinc.
X denotes end of hole and that the intersection quoted remains open.
1 "Late Ag-Pb-Zn" is comprised of zones of quartz-carbonate veins with sphalerite-galena-pyrite +/- chalcopyrite; Ag-Pb-Zn veins occur peripheral to Porphyry mineralization (see 2) and cross-cut Porphyry mineralization
2 "Porphyry + o/p" is comprised of zones dominated by "core-style" high-temperature porphyry alteration and gold-copper mineralization with an irregular overprint of "Late Ag-Pb-Zn"
3 "Composite" is comprised of broad intervals that include both styles of mineralization in discrete zones: "Late Ag-Pb-Zn " (with no earlier porphyry mineralization) and "Porphyry + o/p"
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Silver Price: The Least You Should Be Worried About
By Jeff Clark, Big Gold
I heard some disturbing reports about silver supply last month that I felt every investor should know. And while precious metals are currently in correction mode, the long-term concerns with supply won't disappear anytime soon.
In attempt to get a handle on the bullion market, I spoke to Andy Schectman of Miles Franklin, who has contacts that run deep in the industry. What he sees everyday might just compel you to count how many ounces you own...
Jeff Clark: Andy, tell us about your industry contacts and how you get the information you're privy to.
Andy Schectman: We source our product from three of the largest six primary U.S. mint distributors. Having 20 years of experience with these sources, as well as the dealers in the secondary market, we're as tied into the industry as anyone.
Jeff: You made some interesting comments to me about supply and premiums. Tell us what you're hearing and seeing in the bullion market right now.
Andy: I feel as though I'm the boy who cries wolf or that I've been beating the same drum for too long. But in reality, it has been my feeling since late 2007 that ultimately this market will be defined less by the price going parabolic - which I think ultimately will happen - and more by a lack of supply. You see occasional reports that state it's just a lack of refined silver or lack of silver in investable form. But as far as I'm concerned, there is a major supply deficit issue, and it's getting worse.
Take the U.S. Mint, for example. Right now, as we talk, you can barely get silver Eagles. We're seeing delivery delays of three to four weeks, and premium hikes of a dollar or more in the last three weeks. Most of the suppliers in the country are reluctant to take large orders on silver Eagles because they don't know (a) when they'll get them, and (b) what the premiums will be when they arrive.
I was talking to the head of Prudential Bache and asked him about silver Eagles. He said, "You know, as soon as the allocations come in, they're sold out. We can't keep them in." This is coming from one of the largest distributors of U.S. Mint products in the country.
And this is all occurring in an environment that has only minimal participation by the masses. Few people in this country have ever even held a gold or silver coin. So, if it's this difficult to get bullion now, what's it going to be like when it becomes evident to the masses they need to buy? This is what keeps me up at night.
Jeff: Some analysts say it's a bottleneck issue, that the mints have enough stock but just need more time or more workers to fabricate the metal into the bars and coins customers want.
Andy: No, I don't believe that. What business do you know that if they had that much profit potential wouldn't increase production and hire more workers to meet demand? To me, the "inefficient model" argument is an excuse.
Look at what the U.S. Mint alone has done: they haven't made the platinum Eagle since 2008. They make maybe one-tenth as many gold Buffalos as they do gold Eagles. They've made hardly any fractional-ounce gold Eagles. Heck, they can't even keep up with the demand for the products they do offer. Does that sound like a bottleneck to you? Or is it because there is far more demand than there is available supply? It's pretty clear to me it's the latter.
Jeff: What are you seeing in the secondary market; are investors selling bullion?
Click Here to Continue Reading
More Casey Research Articles
> Buying Silver at 10% Off
> The Fracking Controversy
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Options Strategy: The Iron Butterfly
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There are numerous startegies when trading options and Iron Butterfly is one of them.
While it is an options strategy that's seldom talked about, it is a great strategy to know.
Iron Butterfly is considered a neutral strategy, and you would employ this method if you believe a stock will trade within a certain range by its option's expiration. Watch the video as Kevin Matras walks you through the Iron Butterfly strategy.
More Zacks Videos:
> Momentum Stock Picks - May 19, 2011 > Aggressive Growth Stock Picks - May 18, 2011 > Why Some Have More 'Luck' In Options |
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A Metal Miner's View of the Market - Click to Read
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Technical Trading with Harry Boxer
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Harry has more than 40 years of Wall Street investment and technical analysis experience, including eight years on Wall Street as chief technical analyst with three brokerage firms. Watch the video as he walks you through his technical analysis on a whole bunch of stocks he thinks you should be watching from last week. To see more videos, Click Here.
Like his analysis?
Click Here to receive a Free 15-Day Trial to Harry Boxer's Real-Time Technical Trading Diary for Equedia members. |
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Embedding is simple. Just copy and paste the embed codes from another website ino the main blog section of your post (not the exceprt).
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Embed codes for videos are usually right beside a video.
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Equedia Tips - The Markets Tab
Using the search function at the top right corner of the website, search for any company. Let's use Research in Motion as an example. Once you reach their profile page, click on the MARKETS TAB. You should now see 12 seperate tabs underneath their logo. Try clicking on them and you will find in-depth information such as:
Detailed Quotes - Depth/Level II - Options - Java Charts - News - Profile - Financials - Insiders trades - Filings - Analyst Consensus - Earnings - Historical Data (Highs/Lows, Volumes, Closing/Opening Prices)
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Markets Tab: Under any corporate profile, you will find this tab. Under this tab, you can find the company's news, level 2 depth (delayed), options, charts, profile, financials, insider trades, filings, analyst overviews, earnings, and historical data (these may not be available for all companies)
There are many more useful features on Equedia.com but we think its better if you experience them for yourself. The more associates you have, the more useful Equedia will become for you. So use the new "invite my contacts" function and get started!
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Forward-Looking Statements
Except for the statements of historical fact, the information contained herein is of a forward-looking nature. Such forward-looking information involves known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievement of the Company to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by statements containing forward-looking information.
Although the Company has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially, there may be other factors that cause results not to be as anticipated, estimated or intended. There can be no assurance that statements containing forward looking information will prove to be accurate as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Accordingly, readers should not place undue reliance on statements containing forward looking information. Readers should review the risk factors set out in the Company's prospectus and the documents incorporated by reference.
Cautionary Note to U.S. Investors Concerning Estimates of Inferred Resources
This presentation uses the term "Inferred Resources". U.S. investors are advised that while this term is recognized and required by Canadian regulations, the Securities and Exchange Commission does not recognize it. "Inferred Resources" have a great amount of uncertainty as to their existence, and great uncertainty as to their economic and legal feasibility. It cannot be assumed that all or any part of an Inferred Resource will ever be upgraded to a higher category. Under Canadian rules, estimates of "Inferred Resources" may not form the basis of feasibility or other economic studies. U.S. investors are also cautioned not to assume that all or any part of an "Inferred Mineral Resource" exists, or is economically or legally mineable.
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This Week's Most Wanted
The Stock Market's Most Interesting Videos That You Should Watch
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 Companies Under Evaluation This Past Week
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Rants and Raves
Inside the mind of Equedia's editor - unrated, uncut, and unedited
Sometimes, great news releases are overshadowed by a poor market. One of my investments, Kiska Metals, announced some great results this past week - results that in a bull market would've sent the stock flying, as it did late last year when strong results from its Raintree prospect took the stock to a new high of $1.74.
Anyway, I expect management to continue with strong results throughout the year, so when the market turns around, I expect Kiska to bounce back strongly.
Last week, I was bored and posted some interesting but random facts. It seems a lot of you liked it, so here are some more for the long weekend:
Google held $34 billion in cash and marketable securities at the end of 2010
One foreclosure can result in as much as an additional $220,000 in reduced property value and home equity for nearby homes.
43 percent of American households spend more than they earn each year.
Moments before the US started bombing Baghdad, nearly $1 billion dollars was stolen from the Central Bank of Iraq and considered the largest heist in history. $650 million was later recovered in the walls of one of Saddam's palaces but the balance is still missing.
A quadrillion is a big number: 1,000 times a trillion. Yet according to one of the world's leading derivatives experts, Paul Wilmott, who holds a doctorate in applied mathematics from Oxford University, $1.2 quadrillion is the so-called notional value of the worldwide derivatives market. To put that in perspective, the world's annual gross domestic product is between $50 trillion and $60 trillion.
The US Government does not have to follow Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP).
There are 8.5 million people receiving unemployment insurance and over 40 million receiving food stamps.
At the current pace of job creation, the economy won't return to full employment until 2018.
Middle-income jobs have been replaced by low-income jobs, which now make up 41% of total employment.
In 2010, for the first time ever more than a million U.S. families lost their homes to foreclosure, and that number is expected to go even higher in 2011.
When you adjust wages for inflation, middle class workers in the United States make less money today than they did back in 1971.
Only 45.4% of Americans had a job during 2010. The last time the employment level was that low was back in 1983.
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, at least 8 million Americans are at least one month behind on their mortgage payments at this point.
The number of homes that were actually repossessed reached the 1 million mark for the first time ever during 2010.
According to a recent census report, 13% of all the homes in the United States are sitting empty.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average length of unemployment in the U.S. is now an all-time record 39 weeks.
A staggering 25 percent of all American adults now have a credit score below 599.
China is now the number one supplier of components that are critical to the operation of U.S. defense systems.
The U.S. trade deficit with China in 2010 was 27 times larger than it was back in 1990.
U.S. government spending in 2011 is projected to be $3.7 trillion. That's over $500 billion more than China, the UK, Canada, and Australia spent combined in 2009.
The U.S. plans to spend $366 billion more on defense in 2011 than China, the UK, France, Russia, and Germany spent combined in 2009.
Government revenues will be only 15% of GDP in 2011. That's the lowest level since 1950.
The U.S. government will spend $225 billion on interest payments on its debt in 2011, $13 billion more than the entire market cap of GE.
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