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May 8, 2011

Dear Readers,

 

Calm down guys. It's not as bad as you think.

 

Wherever you looked last week, it was pretty hard to escape the talk about commodities. Oil was down, gold was down, and silver continued its slump. Even cocoa, sugar, wheat, and corn tumbled. The series of mini flash commodities crashes bring back memories of last year's market meltdown.

 

But do you remember what happened last year after the flash crash? That's right. We went straight back up.

 

What is going on here? Are hedge funds running for the exit signs? Were the jumps in job loss claims driving all of this?

 

To make a long story short, this is simply a continuation of liquidation which has been happening for the last few weeks and months. As we rose, shorts had to cover and as we went down, longs had to liquidate. Next week, we should see some back-to-basic stabilization.

 

If you read last week's letter (see Age of America Over), you would've been prepared for the major selloff in commodities and the stock market that took place earlier in the week.

 

If you missed last week, I had taken some profits off the table in the prior week and said that:

 

"Commodities and resource prices are at near all time highs, yet many of the mining stocks are struggling to keep up. I've been speaking with some of the top brokers and money managers and many of them are looking for liquidity. That could mean a temporary drop in prices as the big money sells."

 

And that is exactly what happened this week. Gold, silver, oil, and other commodities and related stocks took a major tumble, with silver leading the way with one of its biggest short term declines in the last 36 years.

 

Silver

 

Silver, what call the Devil's metal (I call it the Human Metal), has turned millionaires into billionaires but has also left many traders and investors broke because of its major volatility.

 

The big selling started last Sunday night in the Asian markets when some hedge funds and other money managers decided that silver had gotten ahead of itself and liquidated huge amounts of silver. Of course, this led to the dumping by the retail investors, who often conform to the big names and try to follow everything they do.

 

Billionaire Carlos Slim has been selling silver futures for "weeks" in an effort to actively hedge the production of his silver mine. George Soros has been liquidating his precious metals position over the last month. Sprott Asset Management was also rumoured to have sold a large part of their silver ETF position, the Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV). CEO Eric Sprott later clarified that while part of his fund did sell some PSLV, it was only an "incredibly small" sale relative to what they owned, and the proceeds were used to reinvest into other silver-related plays and physical silver that were underperforming the iShares Silver Trust (SLV). He also reinforced that their silver position in ounces is higher than it has ever been. 

 

Profit taking was not the only catalyst for the selloff. An 84 percent rise in trading costs by the CME group forced many traders and funds to liquidate. And as the saying goes, we have the domino effect. 

 

The CME, which typically raises margins when volatility in markets increases, announced successive margin hikes raising the margins from $8,700 per contract as of April 25, 2011 to $21,600 effective this coming Monday, May 9. Each contract holds 5,000 ounces of silver, or $178,000 in today's prices.

 

While the short term squeeze forced a lot of money out of the silver markets, it's only a short term blip in silver's climb. 

 

We are still in a secular bull market for precious metals and as I said last week, any selloffs would be temporary and we should, "use these pullbacks as buying opportunities." Especially when you have a 30% correction in a secular bull market...

 

Silver didn't get ahead of itself. It was manipulated. I think that a group of traders not only took profits from longs and shorts, but wanted to slam the price of silver so that they could pick it back up at cheaper prices. My theory will soon be put to the test if silver strengthens next week and we see an uptick in the prices of precious metals. If we don't, take it as an added week of accumulation opportunity. While short term volatility remains as others sell, I wouldn't be surprised to see silver back up to $45-$50 with ease in the near term.

 

Fundamentally, nothing has changed. This applies to both gold and silver. If gold or silver continues to dip, it will only be short term. As a matter of fact, the recent correction is healthy for both the stock market as a whole, and for commodities and resources.

 

Investors have been spoiled by quick returns over the last few years and the reality of the markets are giving us a swift kick in the butt. I am still looking to put up some stink bids in hopes they get filled, as the market quiets for the junior miners and explorers over the summer. This happened last year, and it will more than likely happen again this year.  

 

Kiska Metals, for example, is now trading at $0.80. A big decline from our initial coverage price (I haven't sold a single share). In Raymond James' recent mining report on May 6, 2011, Kiska Metals has been given a Strong Buy recommendation and is one of their favoured precious metal exploration-oriented names. It also has the highest total return to target of 128%, with a revised target price of $1.80 - the highest return target of the 18 companies covered in their recent report. Kiska remains one of my biggest holdings in my junior exploration portfolio.  

 

Bernanke is still printing (although he claims otherwise), interest rates will remain low in the near term, and oil prices are hurting the consumer. According to the Wall Street Journal, the amount of people paying income taxes in the US are now a minority. A new congressional study concludes that the percentage of U.S. households owing no federal income tax climbed to 51% for 2009.

 

At the same time, there are millions of Americans, who pay practically no taxes at all.

 

About fifteen million American households, or 10 percent of all taxpayers, receive more cash from the IRS than they contribute in federal income taxes and payroll taxes, thanks to "refundable credits." 

 

With the dwindling participation of foreign investments into US debt and taxpayers who don't pay taxes, it's only natural that the purchasing power of the Greenback will fall against Gold and Silver. Rates around the world are remaining at all time lows and the European Union bailout deals clearly indicate continued troubles in those nations.

 

Take major pullbacks as an opportunity to pick up some cheap shares of silver or silver related stocks.

 

Uranium

 

I have now turned bullish on uranium.

 

While uranium has taken a major blow since Japan's recent earthquake, it still remains a much needed resource. At current prices, I think those who wanted to sell have sold and shares of uranium miners are now in much stronger hands. Moving forward in the longer term, uranium shares look attractive, as do uranium prices.

 

I understand  that the recent events in Japan are devastating. But we have to remember that it was caused by an earthquake, and not any major fault of the power plants themselves. There are still many power plants around the world and many of them do not lie on any earthquake fault lines.

 

Furthermore, nuclear power plants have a long standing history of safety. While the average person is quick to shy away from nuclear energy, I think they forget that more power plants exists in their own backyard than any other country. The US currently has 104 reactors in operation, 1 under construction, 9 more planned, and 23 proposed.

 

Even though the Chinese government reacted to the crisis in Japan by announcing a moratorium on nuclear project approvals, I doubt that will change their plans. Right now, the Chinese has 13 operating nuclear reactors, 27 under construction, 50 planned, and get this...110 more proposed. By 2020, the country's nuclear capacity is expected to increase tenfold.

 

Worldwide uranium required in 2011 is estimated at 68,971 tonnes. Worldwide uranium production in 2010 was only 54,000 metric tons, which is still up over 6% from the previous year.

 

Of the 479 new nuclear reactors planned globally, a third are to be built in China. With barely enough uranium output to meet half its current needs, China is tapping global producers aggressively. Last year, its uranium imports more than tripled to 17,000 metric tons - about 37.5 million pounds. 

 

While uranium isn't especially scarce, it is difficult to extract profitably in large quantities. That means price will need to rise in order to meet demand. 

 

I think the uranium sector has bottomed. It's time to go long. There are many attractive stocks in this sector. Cameco, Denison Mines, First Uranium, Hathor Exploration, Uranium One, Uranium Participation, Paladin Energy, Ur-Energy, and Strathmore Minerals all look attractive.

 

I don't own shares in any of the uranium names, but I will look to accumulate on dips.   

 

Happy Mother's day to all of the mothers out there!  Happy Mother's day mom! Thanks for...everything! 

 

"God could not be everywhere and therefore he made mothers.

 

   

 

Until next week,

 

Ivan Lo

Equedia Weekly  

 

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We are biased towards Kiska Metals because we own shares. We are also biased because they are a client of ours and we own options in the Companies. Our reputation is built upon on the companies we feature. That is why we invest in every company we feature in our Special Report Editions, including Kiska Metals. 

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Casey Research  

Hyperinflation and Double-Dip Recession Ahead

 

Interview with John Williams   

  

John WilliamsEconomic recovery? What economic recovery? Contrary to popular media reports, government economic reporting specialist and ShadowStats Editor John Williams reads between the government-economic-data lines. "The U.S. is really in the worst condition of any major economy or country in the world," he says. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, John concludes the nation is in the midst of a multiple-dip recession and headed for hyperinflation.

The Gold Report: Standard & Poor's (S&P) has given a warning to the U.S. government that it may downgrade its rating by 2013 if nothing is done to address the debt and deficit. What's the real impact of this announcement?

John Williams: S&P is noting the U.S. government's long-range fiscal problems. Generally, you'll find that the accounting for unfunded liabilities for Social Security, Medicare and other programs on a net-present-value (NPV) basis indicates total federal debt and obligations of about $75 trillion. That's 15 times the gross domestic product (GDP). The debt and obligations are increasing at a pace of about $5 trillion a year, which is neither sustainable nor containable. If the U.S. was a corporation on a parallel basis, it would be headed into bankruptcy rather quickly.

There's good reason for fear about the debt, but it would be a tremendous shock if either S&P or Moody's Investor Service actually downgraded the U.S. sovereign-debt rating. The AAA rating on U.S. Treasuries is the benchmark for AAA, the highest rating, meaning the lowest risk of default. With U.S. Treasuries denominated in U.S. dollars and the benchmark AAA security, how can you downgrade your benchmark security? That's a very awkward situation for rating agencies. As long as the U.S. dollar retains its reserve currency status and is able to issue debt in U.S. dollars, you'll continue to see a triple-A rating for U.S. Treasuries. Having the U.S. Treasuries denominated in U.S. dollars means the government always can print the money it needs to pay off the securities, which means no default.

TGR: With the U.S. Treasury rated AAA, everything else is rated against that. But what if another AAA-rated entity is about to default?

JW: That's the problem that rating agencies will have if they start playing around with the U.S. rating. But there's virtually no risk of the U.S. defaulting on its debt as long as the debt's denominated in dollars. Let's say the U.S. wants to sell debt to Japan, but Japan doesn't like the way the U.S. is running fiscal operations. It can say, "We don't trust the U.S. dollar. We'll lend you money, but we'll lend it in yen." Then, the U.S. has a real problem because it no longer has the ability to print the currency needed to pay off the debt. And if you're looking at U.S. debt denominated in yen, most likely you would have a very different and much lower rating.

TGR: Is there a possibility that people would not buy U.S. debt unless it's in their currency?

JW: It is possible lenders would not buy the Treasuries unless denominated in a strong and stable currency. As the USD loses its value and becomes less attractive, people will increasingly dump dollar-denominated assets and move into currencies they consider safer. And you'll see other things; OPEC might decide it no longer wants to have oil denominated in U.S. dollars. There's been some talk about moving it to some kind of basket of currencies-something other than the U.S. dollar, possibly including gold. This would be devastating to the U.S. consumer. You'd get a double whammy from an inflation standpoint on oil prices in the U.S. because the dollar would be shrinking in value against that basket of currencies.

TGR: Different countries are starting to discuss the creation of an alternative to the USD as reserve currency. How rapidly could an alternative currency appear?

JW: That would involve a consensus of major global trading countries; but just how that would break remains to be seen. Let's say OPEC decides it no longer wants to accept dollars for oil. Instead, it wants to be paid in yen. It's done. It's not a matter of creating a new currency-it's a matter of how things get shifted around.

TGR: What other commodities or monetary issues would that create?

JW: Again, the dollar's weakness is doubly inflationary. It is the biggest factor behind the ongoing rise in oil prices. Let's say you're a Japanese oil purchaser. Oil, effectively, is purchased at a discount in a yen-based environment due to the dollar's weakness. Usually, the market doesn't let such advantages last very long. As the dollar weakens, you see upside pressure on oil prices. If, hypothetically, you're pricing oil in yen, there's no reason for anybody to hold the USD. The dollar would sell off more rapidly against the yen and oil inflation would be even higher in a dollar-denominated environment.

TGR: You've mentioned that hyperinflation will happen as soon as 2014. If that is true, wouldn't OPEC want to shift off dollar pricing as quickly as possible?

JW: From a purely financial standpoint, that would make sense. Other factors are at play, though, including political, military and unstable times in both North Africa and the Middle East. Those who are able to get out of dollars, I think, will do so rapidly and as smoothly as possible.

TGR: And how will they do that?

JW: They will sell their dollar-denominated assets. They will convert dollars to other currencies. They will buy gold. Generally, they will dump whatever they hold in dollars and sell the dollar-denominated assets they don't want. There's a market for them; it's just a matter of pricing. As the pressure mounts to get out of the USD, the pricing of dollar-denominated assets will fall, which in turn would intensify that selling. The dollar selling will intensify domestic U.S. inflation, which is one factor that picks up and feeds off itself and will help to trigger the hyperinflation.

TGR: The U.S., even in recession, is still the largest consuming economy. If the U.S. continues in, or goes into a deeper, recession, doesn't that impact the rest of the world?

JW: If the U.S. is in a severe recession, it will have a significant negative economic impact on the global economy. That doesn't necessarily affect the relative values of other currencies to the USD. If you look at the dollar against the stronger currencies, a wide variety of factors are in effect-including relative economic strength. The U.S. is probably going to have an economy as bad as any major country will have, with higher relative inflation. The weaker the relative economy and the stronger the relative inflation, the weaker will be the dollar. Relative to fiscal stability, the worse the fiscal circumstance in the U.S., the weaker is the dollar. Relative to trade balance, the bigger the trade deficit is, the weaker the currency. As to interest rates, the lower the relative interest rates in the U.S., the weaker will be the dollar.

Part of the weakness in the dollar now is due to the way the world views what's happening in Washington and the ability of the government to control itself. That's a factor that may have forced S&P to make a comment. So, even having a weaker economy in Europe would not necessarily lead to relative dollar strength.

TGR: If the U.S. experiences a continued, or even greater, recession, doesn't that impact spill over into Canada?

 

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Forward-Looking Statements

Except for the statements of historical fact, the information contained herein is of a forward-looking nature. Such forward-looking information involves known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievement of the Company to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by statements containing forward-looking information.

 

Although the Company has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially, there may be other factors that cause results not to be as anticipated, estimated or intended. There can be no assurance that statements containing forward looking information will prove to be accurate as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Accordingly, readers should not place undue reliance on statements containing forward looking information. Readers should review the risk factors set out in the Company's prospectus and the documents incorporated by reference.

 

Cautionary Note to U.S. Investors Concerning Estimates of Inferred Resources

 

This presentation uses the term "Inferred Resources". U.S. investors are advised that while this term is recognized and required by Canadian regulations, the Securities and Exchange Commission does not recognize it. "Inferred Resources" have a great amount of uncertainty as to their existence, and great uncertainty as to their economic and legal feasibility. It cannot be assumed that all or any part of an Inferred Resource will ever be upgraded to a higher category. Under Canadian rules, estimates of "Inferred Resources" may not form the basis of feasibility or other economic studies. U.S. investors are also cautioned not to assume that all or any part of an "Inferred Mineral Resource" exists, or is economically or legally mineable.


In This Issue
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Options Strategy: Intrinsic and Time Value
Featured BNN Clip: Sinking Silver
Technical Trading with Harry Boxer
Morningstar: Five Caution Signs in the Market
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Rants and Raves 

 

Inside the mind of Equedia's editor - unrated, uncut, and unedited

 

I am sick as a dog. And as I write this, I am trying to get myself out of bed to watch the Manny/Mosley fight.

 

This past week has been a crazy swing of events. I had a gut feeling and after looking at the technicals and talking to the smart money, I knew it was time to take profits last week, before the commodities sell off this week.  

 

But that doesn't mean I sold everything. There are just some stocks that I feel is better for the long term play...perhaps a big bull run on mining juniors after summer - just like last year.  

 

In the last week alone, my portfolio of juniors that I held (and didn't take profits on) has swung from negative $100,000+ to positive in just a few days. Did it have me worried? Panicked? Not one bit. Thats the nature of the juniors. That's the nature of speculation. 

 

Too often, people forget that you can't always bat 100%. Its like sending soliders to war and expecting everyone to come back. That is why I own a basket of juniors. All it takes is one to make up for any losses I incur on the others. Of course, off the record, I expect most of them to do well but that doesn't always happen. You have to be patient and not attach emotions to your investments. They are speculative bets.  

 

I have a strong feeling that many of the stocks in my current junior portfolio will do extremely well after the summer doldrums. Time to be patient and enjoy the weather. 

 

 

 


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