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US Imposing Sanctions on China?

Watch as Stephen Orlins, president of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, discusses Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao's speech in New York and the prospects of U.S. sanctions against China if that country doesn't revalue its currency.

Wen said a 20 percent rise in the yuan would cause severe job losses and trigger social instability, putting the nation on course for a clash with U.S. lawmakers demanding a stronger currency.


Dear Members,

The money is starting to pour in.
 
Hedge funds and institutions that once sat on the sidelines are beginning to show their strength. That's why this past Friday, the markets roared.

Not only did new economic data show that demand for American equipment is improving, two powerful hedge fund managers came out with overly optimistic comments on equities.

One of the hedge fund managers, Doug Kass, said that betting against bonds would be the "trade of the decade." Moving out of bonds will undoubtedly take money out of that asset class and shift into equities. David Tepper, the other hedge fund manager, said that equities are all but guaranteed to go higher because of the U.S. Federal Reserve's pledge this week to intervene with more stimulus if needed (see The Double Take.)

Of course it's not just their comments that added to Friday's rally.
 
Recent events are making equities look very strong. The Dow once again made substantial gains this week, making it the fourth straight week in the green. To add to the rally, U.S. lawmakers will postpone a vote on whether to extend the U.S. tax cuts - a development shows a strong possibility that most of them will be extended. We also have the possibility that the Republicans - often regarded as business friendly - are going to take control of the U.S. House of Representatives after the November elections.

But more importantly for us, gold and silver once again hit new highs.

Silver reached as high as $US21.48. A few dollars may not seem like much, but this is the highest level for a most-active contract for silver in over 30 years! Gold also finally surpassed the $1300 mark, reaching a record $US1301.60, before settling back down.

Every time gold or silver goes up, contrarians scream bubble - yet, both gold and silver have continued to push new highs.

As mentioned last week (see the Breakout), with the rise in both gold and silver prices, we are now looking at the beginning of a renewed junior market sector.
 
Funds are slowly beginning to flow back into the junior mining segments, which means that we may see a strong breakout over the next year for junior miners and explorers (see the Breakout). Combine that with the continued increase in gold and precious metal prices, the juniors are set to continue their run (see It's Almost Over.)
 
Nobody is expecting the US Dollar to do much in the next little while. So you can bet that gold and silver will find a way to work itself higher. With more stimulus and spending in the works, the Fed is cranking up the printing press again, and the dollar is going to suffer for it.
 
But that's exactly what the US wants...

The Printing Press Strategy
 
Everyone thinks the US dollar is tumbling and the US is losing its power and control of the world. But what's really happening may shock you.
 
In US' current economic state, it wants to devalue its currency. It needs to. It's their secret way of rebuilding a bigger, stronger economy.
 
And it will work.
 
The US, and its citizens, are known to be a big spenders. But that was before the world collapsed. The US no longer wants its citizens to spend money - not outside of the US anyway. It wants everyone to spend money in the US. And what better way to do that than by reducing its own purchasing power against foreign markets. What better way to do that than to print more money.
 
Think about it. Not only is the US encouraging exports by devaluing its currency (thus bringing more money from the foreign markets and into the US economy), it's also using the money from the printing press to make the US better through growth and innovation.  Two birds, one stone.
 
The Battle for the Number One Spot
 
The trade war between China and the US is evidence of US' "printing press" strategy.

As the two biggest economic powers in the world, China and the US are constantly battling over currency value. On the one hand, China's financial position is strong and they have growth. On the other hand, they have no innovation. They rely on manufacturing and exports from cheap labour. (see Time to Think Again)

That is why there is so much controversy surrounding China's currency value.  China doesn't need to print more money - it has more than enough. That's why they have no excuse to devalue their currency. The US, on the other hand, is printing money so it can devalue its currency to encourage exports, while fuelling growth and innovation.

By limiting China's exports, it slows down China's growth and encourages the growth of the US. This strategy is already starting to take place. A bill that would give the U.S. government the power to impose economic sanctions on China and other countries found to be manipulating their currencies to gain trade advantages has just won approval from a key House committee.

American manufacturers say that China's currency is undervalued by as much as 40 percent against the Dollar. That makes Chinese products cheaper and more competitive in the United States and American products more expensive in China. For example, China ranked No. 3 among Florida's top merchandise trading partners in 2009, with $5.8 billion in trade, which includes $5.2 billion in imports, according to the Orlando EDC. In other words, Florida buys more from China than it sells there. That means money out of the US, and into China. That's not good for the US.

Beating the Competition

When you want growth, you need to be competitive. What better way to do that than to devalue your own currency and increase the value of your strongest competitor?

As the US dollar slumps, China's Yuan prospers. In the short term, this may seem like China is winning the battle. But at the end of the day, a lower US dollar makes US exports much more attractive to foreign investments, fuelling money into the US economy.

China, on the other hand, whose main power relies on manufacturing and exports, will eventually suffer as their currency increases in value.

So for those of you who believe the US is digging its own grave by spending so much money, you may have to rethink that philosophy.
 
But this is all great news for investors. The Dollar will fall but stocks will rise through growth and innovation. The Dollar will fall but precious metals will rise through safe haven investing. All in all, if the markets hold, this may be one of the best times to invest for the long term.

It may be a bumpy ride, but the destination will be rewarding.


Until next time,


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Casey Research

Alaska's New Gold Rush

Louis JamesLouis James, Senior Editor, Casey's International Speculator

Alaska is one of the most prospective and yet most underexplored areas in the world. There are good reasons for the neglect, most notably the long, cold winters and the lack of infrastructure. Whether the latter is a result of, or a cause of, there being few people in the state is an open question.

One clear result, however, is a rather small economy: Alaska's 2009 GDP was US$47.3 billion, comparable to that of the Dominican Republic or Bulgaria. The state is ranked 44th by GDP among its U.S. peers.

In terms of metals, Alaska produces gold, silver, copper, lead, and zinc. Being well endowed with natural resources, Alaska's mining history dates back to the early 1800s, when Russian explorers prospected the region, looking for placer gold. But not until after Russia sold Alaska to the United States did exploration activities start to develop rapidly, both on placer and hard rock deposits.

Alaska has undergone not one but a series of gold rushes, the most famous being the 1890s Klondike Gold Rush, which actually centered on gold found just over the border in the Yukon Territory. That event drew many immigrants and spawned numerous settlements on the way to the Klondike, one of the principal routes having been through Alaska. Almost 13 million ounces of gold were produced by placer miners in the area. Since the end of the 19th century, mining has become an integral part of the state's economy.

The following chart shows Alaska increased its gold production to 800,000 oz in 2008 (most recent data available), up 10% from 2007. That's also about a 10% share of total U.S. gold production. Alaska is the second largest gold-producing state behind Nevada. It is remarkable to see production in Alaska rise while total U.S. production has been in decline for more than a decade.

Gold Production Chart by Top Six States

Yet, most Alaskan gold comes from only a handful of mines - and that tells you something about the size of the deposits being worked. The two largest mines, Fort Knox and Pogo, account for more than 80% of 2008 total gold production, or 640,000 ounces. The Kensington project, which started producing gold just a month ago, is set to become the third largest. Perhaps. But these mines are small potatoes compared to some of the current projects being advanced toward production. Given that a million ounces of contained gold is considered a large gold mine, Alaska's major deposits are genuine monsters: Pebble has 107.3 million ounces of gold, Donlin Creek has 42.3 million, and Livengood has 19.7 million. If these go into production, Alaska will rank as one of the world's top gold producers.

Alaskan Moose vs. African Elephant

I like Alaska. I like the fact that many, if not most, Alaskans own guns - it's one of the last remnants of American "rugged individualism" (though sometimes it seems that more Alaskans take pride in the rugged part than in the individualism part).

Now this is an Alaskan cabin!
Alaskan Guns Cabin

But in my professional capacity as Doug Casey's rock-kicker, it's not Alaskan culture that I like the most. It's the almost unique combination of being a huge, highly prospective mineral district in a stable, pro-mining jurisdiction. Many people argue that all the big deposits in safer jurisdictions have been found - but you don't have to go to Africa and put up with corrupt, kleptocratic regimes to hunt big game.

Alaska is unquestionably elephant country (well, moose country, and moose are almost as big as elephants and much more foul-tempered) with work done this cycle identifying genuine monster deposits. And there is plenty of room in that great empty place to find more.

The Pebble Controversy

What about Pebble - doesn't that cast doubt on Alaska as a mining jurisdiction?

No.

The fight over Pebble does not stem from a groundswell of anti-mining sentiment among Alaskans, but from objections by specific interests to the potential mine's proximity to salmon spawning grounds. Alaska's economy has been dependent on resource extraction from the get-go, and remains so. Fish are an important resource, but mining has also long been a part of local culture and is no more horrifying to most Alaskans than guns are. In contrast to the views of the parasitical class that inhabits Washington DC, guns are simply necessary and useful things to most Alaskans. Similarly with mining.

Culture aside, the basic fact of life in Alaska is that the economy has always been driven by natural resources, and for Alaskans, this is not just an abstract theory. The State of Alaska cuts a check to each resident every year, paying them a dividend on the royalties the state has collected from the oil industry. Most of the money in the state Permanent Fund that pays these dividends came from the North Slope oil fields - and those are in decline. The Alaska Pipeline is operating at half capacity now, and if it drops below 30% or so, they'll have to shut it down. That opens up some interesting conjectures about the future, but the point at the moment is that individual Alaskans get a substantial check in the mail every year ($1,305 in 2009) that reminds them of the importance of the resource industry.

I'm not worried about Alaska turning anti-mine; Pebble's problems are specific to that project.

Real Obstacles

The main problems for resource industries in Alaska boil down to two things...


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> Doug Casey: Exception Among Equities
> How High Will Gold Go This Fall?
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> The Smoking Ruin Solution
> Gold Confiscation: Straws in the Wind
> China and India: Still Hungry for Coal
> The Genetics of Investing: Kill the Messenger
> Should You Buy a House Now?
> Moving into Bonds: From Frying Pan to Fire
> Oil's Out - Find Out What's In
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Silvermex Resources Ltd. and Genco Resources Ltd. Enter into Business Combination Agreement - Click to Read
Why You Shouldn't Be Afraid to Buy 52-Week High Stocks

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Lots of stocks are making new 52-week highs this year. Does that mean its too late to invest? Have we missed the boat?

Watch the video as Kevin Matras talks about stocks making new highs and why you shouldn't be afraid to buy them in this week's Screen of the Week.

More Zacks Videos:

> Aggressive Growth Stock Picks - September 23, 2010
> Value Stock Picks - September 21, 2010
> Momentum Stock Picks - September 22, 2010

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Gold: Up to $1,500? - Interview with John Brimelow

John Brimelow is an independent gold analyst from Connecticut.

Q: What will be the price of gold by the end of the year?

A: I think there's a reasonable chance it will make a stab at $1,500. But I'm not going to say it's going to stay there forever. The final quarter in recent years has become the best quarter for gold. The basic reason for it is that the major buyer is India. The final quarter of the year is when their marriage season peaks.

Q: How important is India in the gold market?

A: They are the largest single buyer; they buy a fifth of world gold production. Actually, however, their impact on the world gold trade is a great deal higher for two reasons. One is that India itself produces little gold, in contrast to China, which is frequently cited as a major influence on the world gold market. This simply isn't true. China consumes apparently north of 300 tons of gold a year, a considerable amount more than it did a few years ago. But it also mines a tremendous amount of gold, so the amount the Chinese need to import has only recently risen over 100 tons. Whereas the Indians have been importing 500 to 800 tons for a number of years.

Q: What's the second reason?

A: India is an extremely well-managed economy. Amazingly enough, after 40 to 50 years of socialism. Rather like Canada, which must be given credit for completely side-stepping the current mess, which essentially stemmed from reckless activities by the banking sector in many countries, particularly in America. Consequently, India is absolutely booming. This morning they published their industrial production numbers, which are over 13% higher than last year. And India is one of those countries that when wealth rises, a significant amount of it is spent of gold.

Q: Is the gold bought for jewellery or as an investment?

A: Most of it is fabricated into jewellery, but there is an issue of as whether the jewellery is actually adornment or investment, because as you probably know they won't buy jewellery unless it's .995 or higher. So it's tantamount to an investment instrument. Traditionally, Indian women get to keep their own gold, and it remains their property in the event of divorce. Indian brides are sometimes married wearing a pound or more of gold.

Q: Is gold rising because investors see it as a safe haven?

A: The thing about gold is that every culture in the world has some appetite for it to a greater or lesser extent, but it is never zero. Every community has a different approach. There's no doubt that in the West over the last two or three years there has been a tremendous...

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Forward-Looking Statements

Except for the statements of historical fact, the information contained herein is of a forward-looking nature. Such forward-looking information involves known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievement of the Company to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by statements containing forward-looking information.

Although the Company has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially, there may be other factors that cause results not to be as anticipated, estimated or intended. There can be no assurance that statements containing forward looking information will prove to be accurate as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Accordingly, readers should not place undue reliance on statements containing forward looking information. Readers should review the risk factors set out in the Company's prospectus and the documents incorporated by reference.

Cautionary Note to U.S. Investors Concerning Estimates of Inferred Resources

This presentation uses the term "Inferred Resources". U.S. investors are advised that while this term is recognized and required by Canadian regulations, the Securities and Exchange Commission does not recognize it. "Inferred Resources" have a great amount of uncertainty as to their existence, and great uncertainty as to their economic and legal feasibility. It cannot be assumed that all or any part of an Inferred Resource will ever be upgraded to a higher category. Under Canadian rules, estimates of "Inferred Resources" may not form the basis of feasibility or other economic studies. U.S. investors are also cautioned not to assume that all or any part of an "Inferred Mineral Resource" exists, or is economically or legally mineable.

In This Issue
United Mining Group Appoints New CEO and Director
Alaska's New Gold Rush
Silvermex Resources Ltd. and Genco Resources Ltd. Enter into Business Combination
Why You Shouldn't Be Afraid to Buy 52-Week High Stocks
Significant Results from Successful Summer Field Work
Gold: Up to $1,500? - Interview with John Brimelow
Teck to Partner With Suncor on Wintering Hills Wind Power Project
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