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What the Hedge Funds are Doing

How hedge funds invest can sometimes be an indicator of where the economy and markets are heading.

Vincent Deluard, global equity strategist at TrimTabs Investment Research, and Kenneth Heinz, president of Hedge Fund Research, talk with Bloomberg's Carol Massar and Matt Miller about their outlook for hedge funds in 2010.

Dear Members,

We live in a world where everything is go, go, go. A world where a yellow traffic light means speed through instead of slow down.

In last week's newsletter, Another Shot at Glory, we urged our readers to prepare for a correction that will soon take place before 2010 is over. Despite the fairy tales Wall Street is telling you about strong corporate earnings, market data, and insider buys, do not succumb to the glitter of green arrows. That's exactly what they want you to think...so they can dump their profits on you before the next crash.

The Obama administration, with the help of Wall Street, is leading us to believe that the markets have not only recovered, but are ready for growth. Is it really possible to experience what we have experienced over the last 2 years and already be on the road to strong economic recovery?

That's exactly the mentality that got us into this mess . And that's why we need to be patient.

Fundamentals, corporate earnings, market data, and historic events can all help us determine and predict what may happen in the future. We're not saying we can use this information to predict what happens tomorrow, but we can use it to help us predict what happens in the years ahead of us.

We need to look at the road ahead, and not just the road we are on.

Economics 101 teaches us about cycles. Right now, we're in a cycle of a long economic recovery that could stretch many, many years. Regardless of what we're being told by the press, we are still in a depression stage as true US unemployment numbers are closer to 20% (see A Hidden Agenda).

The economies of the world are still collapsing:

These are just a few of the signs that will ultimately lead to another correction this year or early 2011.  
 
Our recent stock market recovery since the bottoms of March 2009 to January 2010, reminded us of a comparable recovery during the crash of October 1929. The recovery in market prices, much like ours today, stemmed from government intervention via loose monetary policy, the spending of hundreds of billions of borrowed money, and extremely low interest rates.  This helped the Dow recover close to 50% of the losses incurred in the October 1929 crash.

In the past, government incentives gave investors a renewed optimism and sent retail investors flocking back towards stocks, only to see another correction months later in April 1930.

Despite being in a completely different era, we are expecting the same thing to happen again. We predict the markets will correct itself later this year, with debt being the catalyst for our next economic and stock market decline.

Even with the best banking system in the world, Canada is at risk. 

Household debt in Canada rose to record levels in 2009, with almost two-thirds of families reporting that they would be in financial trouble if their pay cheques were just one week late, according to a report by the Vanier Institute.

In its 11th annual assessment of the state of the Canadian family, the institute found that average household debt rose to $96,100 last year. That resulted in a debt-to-family-income ratio of 145%, the highest ever, with the level set to climb to 160% by 2012.

Based on our cycle theory, the debtload per household, and a rise in interest rates, we can expect real estate prices to drop significantly in Canada some time within the next three to five years.

It's scary, but it's not all bad


This time around, we can not only protect ourselves, but reward ourselves by being prepared (see We're Back and It's Time to Prepare)

Precious metals such as gold and silver were the investments that allowed investors to reap strong returns during the recovery of the 1930 crash, with precious metal shares outpacing metals prices themselves.

While we like the prospects of gold and silver, we favour the junior miners even more (see A Clear and Present Danger)

Which leads us to one of our featured companies, Trueclaim Exploration (TSX-V: TRM)

As we have mentioned before, the world of major gold discoveries and easy to spot formations are OVER! If you look at every gold company that is being funded right now and have access to capital, they all have one thing in common: Historical Data!

What smart geologists do now to find massive deposits is start by going back to the biggest and best of the old ones.

And that's what Trueclaim Exploration (TSX-V: TRM) has done, with their past producing property at Scadding.

Towards the end of last year, we announced Trueclaim Exploration (TSX-V: TRM) as one of our featured gold companies of 2009. During that time, Trueclaim (TSX.V: TRM) had some advantages over its peers including:
  • Existing underground ramp, open pit, tailings pond, powerline infrastructure and all-year access roads.
  • Potential for near-term restart of the past producing operations. 
  • Close to all major infrastructure, major mining camps and suppliers
  • Past producer with historic (non 43-101 compliant) resources in excess of 130,000 ounces
  • High potential for additional discoveries and an expanded high grade ore body
  • Prior production covered less than 10% of 2,240 acres (1,018 hectares) property (10.2 sq. km.) (They now cover over 41,000 acres)
  • A flagship property in one of the least hostile and most government friendly places in the entire world to operate a mine
This time around, they have even more.

Earlier this past week, Trueclaim released the results of its Phase I drill program for their Scadding property in Ontario.

The results speak for themselves

Take a look:

Scadding Phase I Drill Results

(for a better view of the numbers, please click here)

Highlights of these results include:
  • TRM-10-07     19.29 metres of 12.9 g/t
  • TRM-09-02     10.10 metres of 3.5 g/t 
  • TRM-09-13     1.00 metre of 47.6 g/t
  • TRM-10-02     4.00 metres of 9.6 g/t
  • TRM-10-06     2.00 metres of 22.3 g/t
  • TRM-10-06     4.00 metres of 2.3 g/t
  • TRM-10-07     1.80 metres of 25.6 g/t
  • TRM-10-10     9.00 metres of 2.9 g/t
  • TRM-10-11     1.23 metres of 11.2 g/t
With the assay results of Phase I now complete, the Company is preparing to launch the Phase II drill program in early summer, 2010. The recent results, as the company has mentioned, offer oustanding potential for Scadding and Trueclaim.

We invest in every company we feature after our initial reports and our investment criteria ranges from one to two years, depending on the situation. Combine Trueclaim's advantages over it's peers and its recent drill results, you can see why we selected them as a featured company.

Next week, we will be heading over to the PDAC ( Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada) convention in Toronto, Canada to meet with Trueclaim's management, as well as other companies of interest. If there are any companies you'd like for us to check out there, let us know right away!

We are likely going to witness another a resumption of the economic and financial problems that began in 2007 this year. This will presage another move from fiat currency into gold and silver, driving precious metals prices higher once again.

Be prepared.
 
Forward this issue

Until next week,

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Featured News:
Trueclaim Exploration Inc. Hits Multiple High Grade Gold Intercepts on Phase I Scadding Drill Program - Click to Read
Casey Research

Gold, the IMF, and Dirty Jokes

Jeff ClarkJeff Clark, Senior Editor, Casey's Gold & Resource Report

How many IMF officials does it take to change a light bulb?

As you probably read, the International Monetary Fund announced they would proceed with selling the remaining 191.3 tonnes of gold from the 403.3 tonnes planned. The money is to be used for lending to poor countries. Lending implies the money will be repaid, which, in the case of the IMF, is a joke that isn't funny. But that's a topic for another day.

The IMF stated that sales will be conducted in the open market, which is interesting because until now, gold has only been made available to central banks. While the IMF remains open to central banks buying some of the gold, sales will be conducted "in a phased manner over time" to avoid disruptions to the open market.

So, will IMF sales depress the gold price? Well, remember the price rose with the first sale, when it was announced India was buying 200 tonnes of the 212 for sale. But that was an offtake deal, not an open market sale, so the question is legitimate.

One way to look at it is this: global mine production was 80.9 million ounces in 2009, so the IMF's 6.7 million ounces could be a market-jolting 8.2% addition if dumped all at once. And an 8.2% load would indeed upset a market if we were talking about strawberries or anything else that people buy only for the purpose of consuming.

But most gold isn't bought for the purpose of using it up. It's bought for the purpose of holding it. So the relevant comparison for the IMF's 6.7 million ounces isn't annual mine production. Instead, we should compare it to the world's existing stockpile of gold, which is roughly 2 billion ounces. The IMF sale would add just 0.3% to global inventory - hardly a market trasher.

Further, we've been down this road before with the IMF. When they sold gold in the 1970s, the price dropped upon the announcement of the sale, but then rose when actual sales took place.

And the dirty joke is this...

Click Here to Continue Reading

More Casey Research Articles

> Snow-cialism
> Is Ben Bernanke Smart Enough to Be a CEO?
> The ABCs of ETFs
> Colombia is Open for Business

Featured News:
Results From 2009 Indictor Mineral in Till Sampling Further Confirm and Focus the Source Area of the Alpha Train at Credit Lake, NT - Click to Read
Zacks Investment Research: Effects of Rising Rates and Rising Oil Prices

Click to PlayWith the market searching for direction our panel of experts share some of their top sectors and stock picks to invest in now.

Our experts weigh in with their views in this video segment of Zacks roundtable review.

Click the video to play.

More Zacks videos:

> PEG Ratio - Stock Screening Strategy
> Aggressive Growth Stock Picks - Feb. 23, 2010
> Growth & Income Stock Picks - Feb. 24, 2010
Featured News:
Volta Drilling Confirms A New Porphyry Copper Target At Its Gaoua Project In Southwestern Burkina Faso - Click to Read
Morningstar - The Three Questions Dividend-Seekers Must Ask

Click to Play VideoMorningstar dividend strategist Josh Peters outlines how his three-question framework plays out for one of his favorite dividend-payers.


Click the video to play.

More Morningstar videos:

> What's the Downside Risk for GE?
> Home Depot Rewarding Shareholders
> Will This Energy Drink Maker Peter Out?
> Malls on the Mend, Soup Psychic and Greenwashing
> Prognosis for Health-Care Reform Improved
> How to Avoid Tax Surprises in ETF
Featured News:
Silver Wheaton exercises right to acquire 12.5% of life of mine silver production from the Loma de La Plata zone of the Navidad project - Click to Read
Technical Trading with Harry Boxer

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Harry Boxer has more than 40 years of Wall Street investment and technical analysis experience, including eight years on Wall Street as chief technical analyst with three brokerage firms.

Watch the video as he walks you through his
technical analysis on Astrotech Corp., Netlist Inc., PositiveID, TASER International Inc., and a whole bunch of other stocks. To see more videos, Click Here.

Harry BoxerLike his analysis?

Click Here to receive a Free 15-Day Trial to Harry Boxer's Real-Time Technical Trading Diary for Equedia members.

Featured News:
Stornoway Closes $11.5 Million Equity Financing - Click to Read
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Rainy River Announces Closing of $55 Million Private Placement - Click to Read
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In This Issue
Trueclaim Hits Multiple High Grade Gold Intercepts
Gold, the IMF, and Dirty Jokes
Arctic Star Results From Indictor Mineral in Till Sampling Further Confirm and Focus the Source Area of the Alpha Train at Credit Lake
Effects of Rising Rate and Rising Oil Prices
Volta Drilling Confirms A New Porphyry Copper
Three Questions Dividend-Seekers Must Ask
Silver Wheaton exercises right to acquire 12.5% of life of mine silver production from the Loma de La Plata zone
Technical Trading Videos with Harry Boxer
Stornoway Closes $11.5 Million Equity Financing
Equedia Newest Feature: Embed!
Rainy River Closes $55 Million PP
Equedia Tips- Markets Tab
Build Your Network
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Forward-Looking Statements
This Week's Most Wanted
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Disclaimer and Disclosure Equedia.com & Equedia Network Corporation bears no liability for losses and/or damages arising from the use of this newsletter or any third party content provided herein. Equedia.com is an online financial newsletter owned by Equedia Network Corporation We are focused on researching small-cap and large-cap public companies. Our past performance does not guarantee future results. Information in this report has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete.  This material is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or commodities.

Equedia.com has been compensated to perform research on specific companies and therefore information should not be construed as unbiased. Each contract varies in duration, services performed and compensation received. Equedia.com is not responsible for any claims made by any of the mentioned companies or third party content providers. You should independently investigate and fully understand all risks before investing. We are not a registered broker-dealer or financial advisor. Before investing in any securities, you should consult with your financial advisor and a registered broker-dealer. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities.  Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report OR ON Equedia.com will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Please view our privacy policy and disclaimer to view our full disclosure at http://equedia.com/cms.php/termsr. Our views and opinions regarding the companies within Equedia.com are our own views and are based on information that we have received, which we assumed to be reliable. We do not guarantee that any of the companies will perform as we expect, and any comparisons we have made to other companies may not be valid or come into effect. Equedia.com is paid editorial fees for its writing and the dissemination of material and the companies featured do not have to meet any specific financial criteria.  Equedia Network Corporation., owner of Equedia.com is being paid $7,500 Canadian dollars plus gst  per months of advertisement coverage on Trueclaim Exploration Inc. in an on-going contract. We have been paid by the company. We have also been compensated 30,000 shares of Trueclaim Exploration by a third party for other marketing services as well as 50,000 warrants at $0.10. These services includes but is not limited to the creation and distribution of reports such as this one written by Equedia.com. Equedia.com and its affiliates own shares in Trueclaim Exploration at the time this  report was released and we may purchase more shares in the company and sell them for our own profit, without notice to our subscribers. The companies represented by Equedia.com are typically development-stage companies that pose a much higher risk to investors. When investing in speculative stocks of this nature, it is possible to lose your entire investment over time. Statements included in this newsletter may contain forward looking statements, including the Company's intentions, forecasts, plans or other matters that haven't yet occurred. Such statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Further information on potential factors that may affect, delay or prevent such forward looking statements from coming to fruition can be found in their specific Financial reports. Equedia Network Corporation is a distributor (and not a publisher) of content supplied by third parties and Subscribers. Accordingly, Equedia Network Corporation has no more editorial control over such content than does a public library, bookstore, or newsstand. Any opinions, advice, statements, services, offers, or other information or content expressed or made available by third parties, including information providers, Subscribers or any other user of the Equedia Network Corporation Network of Sites, are those of the respective author(s) or distributor(s) and not of Equedia Network Corporation. Neither Equedia Network Corporation nor any third-party provider of information guarantees the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any content, nor its merchantability or fitness for any particular purpose.


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