Statistical look at current equine sales market: Exchange Report to Sellers
This is a copy of our report to Sellers listed with The Exchange. It discusses prevalent trends in the industry and how they relate to the equine sales market. It also allows our Sellers to measure the success of their marketing campaign against horses of similar type.
Market Evaluation: Data through August 31, 2009
Welcome to the end of the 2009 Season, one I can describe as tumultuous at best. About a year ago the economy upended and the wealth bottomed out. Industries of all type were forced to reconsider strategies and futures, then adjust their practices to stay afloat. The term "economic stimuli" was coined, spun, and exploited nationwide to disguise prices suddenly half of their former selves. The equestrian industry was not immune.
Without resorting to gimmicks like "equinomic stimuli" we have sold horses and weathered the storm fairly well. As we head into what is typically The Season for buying and selling horses there has been a notable surge in activity and interest in the majority of horses listed with us. Here's what we've seen at The Exchange, plus tips on how to present your sale horse in this weakened market.
I. ExchangeHunterJumper.com: The ability to mine the data from our web site reveals interesting trends in the industry.
A. TRAFFIC: Though not without bumps and gurgles traffic has been on the rise overall. August 2009 saw 45,085 visitors to ExchangeHJ.com, up nearly 9% from August 2008. December 2008 recorded the lowest results of the period with 35,906 visitors; reflecting not only the distraction of holidays, but also the complete upheaval of the economy.
1. A year ago the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted over 3000 points between September 8 and October 10, and fell another thousand points to bottom out November 20 at 7552, an event worth noting as December posted our lowest numbers of the year.
2. A redesign of the site in January, 2009 saw an immediate 12% spike, bringing traffic totals back to 40,000 visitors for the month.
a. The new design greatly increased the number of pages viewed per visitor: From 48,813 page views in December, to 67,025 in January. August 2009 logged 96,199 page views, an increase of 79% over last year. Visitors are choosing to view 79% more pages (ie: more horses) than they were last year.
3. April traffic set a record high with 44,613 visits and 93,082 page views. Traffic then dropped to 38,820 visitors in June; and then broke another record in August with 45,085 visitors.
a. Puzzling at first these numbers indicate a "summer slump" brought on by school letting out and an overall increase in outdoor activities, including horse shows, that result in a decrease in computer activities and online horse shopping. Unfortunately, our host switched stat programs last year which means numbers from this time period are unavailable for comparison.
B. BEST/WORST DAYS: Monitoring monthly highs and lows for the site and horses, and correlating that data to our marketing activities helps us track the success of our efforts and the patterns of our internet users.
1. Best day each month (most visits recorded):
a. Monday, June 1: 5 horses and the home page logged their monthly highs.
b. Tuesday, July 7 - Wednesday, July 8: 10 horses plus the site logged their monthly highs.
c. Wednesday August 12 - Thursday, August 13: 13 horses and the site logged their monthly highs.
· This was the week after we returned from our large Pony Finals, promotion, which looks to have paid off nicely. Additionally, two of our ponies making Top 10 gave us lots to talk about!
2. Worst day each month (fewest visits recorded):
a. Monday, June 22 - Sunday, June 28: 10 horses, plus the site & home page logged lows this week.
b. Friday, July 3 - Saturday, July 4: 6 horses plus the home page logged lows.
· Holiday landing on a weekend. Next landmark was Saturday, July 25 with 5 horses logging lows.
c. Wednesday, August 26: 8 horses logged lows on this date.
3. Summary: We have only collected data through June for this section of the report and so far patterns are hard to discern, though it seems that the last week of each month is typically slower than the rest. Additional data in our next update will hopefully reveal more details.
C. POPULARITY OF TYPE: Here we compare the popularity of Hunters vs. Jumpers vs. Equitation Horses vs. Ponies
1. Hunters always have, and probably always will be, the most popular Type. Hunters consistently return at least twice as many visits as any other Type.
2. Jumper listings are our second most popular category with Equitation a close third, and every once in awhile stepping into second.
a. We are running very low on Jumper listings and eventually this will affect overall success of this Type. It is the only group that shows the same Daily Average of Visits for August 2008 and 2009, all other Types have increased their Daily Average over that period. We would like to build support for this category and encourage Sellers to list their quality Jumpers and Jumper Prospects - see how we have targeted and built interest for Ponies below. The benefit of listing now is there is very little competition in this category.
3. Ponies have always been our lightest category, in entrants and interest, and we aimed to increase the popularity of this category. A massive promotion for Pony Finals included profiling qualified ponies, extensive social networking , passing out "Equi Cards" at Finals, and follow up reporting on the event, resulting in a 28% increase in Pony interest in August, 2009, up 34% from numbers reported by Ponies in 2008.
D. PRICE RANGES: Possibly the most interesting numbers to compile, popular Price Ranges can tell us not only about the state of the equine Buyer, but also about the economy in general. Here are some factors to keep in mind as you consider the results:
· Due to its popularity, and thus large quantity of data, I have selected Price Ranges among Hunters for comparison.
· Just as it affects the popularity of Type described above, the number of horses available in any one Price Range will affect its popularity to some degree. We currently have a very strong showing of 6 Figure Hunters.
1. The Low 5 Figure Price Range (Under 25K) remains our most popular category but showed recent decline, down 13% from August, 2008 numbers.
a. I view this as a good thing. It has never been our desire to solicit this range of Buyer, which shows evidence of more window shoppers, hopeful children, and backyard types than others. I don't mind listing the show pony or older horse stepping down, or the quality youngster, but our focus remains on horses suitable for competition at a USEF Rated venue. This decline in lower end interest shows our site continues to distinguish itself as a portal for the more quality horse.
· While decline in interest for other Price Ranges paralleled the "Summer Slump" (see Section I.3.a), both the Low 5 Figure and Low-Mid 5 Figure Price Ranges dropped more dramatically, suggesting many of its visitors suddenly spent less time at the computer, such as happens when school lets out.
2. The 6 Figure Price Range is the second most popular range on our site. It has grown almost steadily over the past year, up 22% from August 2008, and averages 11 visits each day.
a. Only about 50% of our visitors elect to further sort horses by price once they hit the gateway "Hunters All" page, so this survey tracks only 50% of buyer activity. It can be safely assumed that the average popularity of our 6 Figure horses is actually higher than 11 visits per day.
b. The 6 Figure Range has often battled the Low-Mid 5 Figure Range for 2nd place in the popularity rankings, often matching it but never surpassing it. April 2009 showed the 6 Figures first triumph in this battle, and it has held the 2nd place position consistently for the past 3 months (June, July, August).
c. I'm very impressed with these results overall. Aside from attending a horse show their are few opportunities to expose your horse to the interest of multiple 6 Figure inquiries each and every day.
3. The High 5 Figure Range concerns me: It is down 50% from the totals it was pulling in August 2008, and is currently tied for least popular Price Range in the Hunter Type.
a. Popularity of the High 5 Figure range has dropped from third to sixth place in our site rankings over the past year. Combined with the rise in 6 Figure interest, historically a range less affected by economic downturn, I believe this to be the biggest tell on our economy. Many in this range lost considerable worth over the past year; home value, stock market, layoffs, etc, and others finally recognized the extent to which they were living beyond their means. As several factors suggest, including declined attendance at horse shows all season, many of our previously prominent equestrians have been forced to either forego their equine hobbies altogether, or budget them far more strictly.
· Things may be looking better: Traffic in the High 5 Figure range showed a welcome increase in August which brought numbers back to pre-recession levels. Additionally, Seller reports from September include a successful sale plus an offer on a horse in this price range.
Believe it or not, there's plenty more to this report. If you've stuck with us so far thanks, I appreciate your appreciation for my nerdom. To continue reading (and even access a printable PDF of the report, yippee!) please click here to read from our blog. |
