Executive Newsletter: North of the Blue
America's Stock Analysis System
Week of June 20, 2010 |
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| Greetings! |  Schedule of Events:
Did you know that we stay in touch with our subscribers at least 6 times every week? It's a fact. Check it out below.
I am following up on our simplification article. You will find it just what you need in these difficult times.
And give special attention to Ryan's work in the world of the Daytraders. Daytrading is one of the most fascinating of all investment strategies and is a great tool to use in this choppy market
Don't forget your stops Channel Analysis users! When in doubt, sell, move the money into a bond fund and wait for the next round of buying opportunities.
Have you been following Ryan's Notes? They give you a picture of how one man learned to use North of the Blue. He does not win every time, but as he pays more attention to the nuances in North of the Blue his investments become more profitable. You can reach him at Ryan@northoftheblue.com. See our phone list at the bottom of this letter for his phone number.
Dick Brenneke, on the other hand, was one of the co-authors of North of the Blue and has been solely responsible for the additions and changes we have made over the last 8 years. When he explains how North of the Blue functions it is from the perspective of a person who knows all the lines of code and what the program can do.
Our objective in writing North of the Blue was to meet the needs of two groups of people:
- Those who wanted to micromanage their capital on a daily basis -- these use the Channel Analysis.
- Those who wanted to manage their capital with a minimum amount of effort -- these use the 17 Month Ovcerview.
These two groups had one thing in common: They wanted to produce the maximum gain in the shortest time with the least amount of effort. We succeeded and produced a product with an overall accuracy rate exceeding 85% and annual gains exceeding 50%.
A note of thanks to Jim Pedersen. Jim just returned from a trip down to a mutual fund convention in California. He brought his North of the Blue information with him and just astounded his collegues. You see, Jim analyzed how well we do with ETF investing as opposed to others doing only mutual fund investing. While mutual funds are the only and often the best ways for users to put their money into the market, those who can use our system and do ETF investing can knock the socks off the competition. Jim will report on his analysis soon.
The best of all investing to you. Please stay in touch.
Dick
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| Being Here. |
 Did you know that we publish three newsletters every week? Compare our "Stay in Touch Approach" with any other subscription system.
Staying in Touch| Weekend |
Dick's Picks |
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| Weekend |
Ryan's Picks |
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| Monday | Red Runners |
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| Tuesday | Weekly Executive Newsletter |
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| Tuesday | Webinar 6:30 PM - 7:30 PM |
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| Wednesday | Weekly Seminar 6:30 PM - 8:00 PM |
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| Wednesday | Webinar done in conjunction with our Weekly Seminar |
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| Friday | Post Webinars to website |
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There is no substitute for face to face meetings no matter what the advertisers say. But not everyone lives within easy driving distance of Portland so we expect to add a webcast component to our Wednesday evening seminars. And ... you just cannot get into our rib barbecue over the web. Yes, this summer we will be doing at least one and possibly two barbecues this summer in the parking area behind our building. Who knows, we may even bring in professionals to do the cooking.
We also offer one-on-one sessions for $25 per person per hour between 8:30 AM and 5:00 PM. Additional family members are free. Call ahead to schedule. |
| Getting Started |
I was astonished last week when I read the comments of folks who decided not to continue their North of the Blue subscriptions. Many had subscribed for several months but had never made a trade using North of the Blue. One did not even have a stockbroker.
If you find yourself in this kind of a situation, please call on us for help. We'll help you find a broker and provide you with the education you need to monitor his or her work for you. Between the picks that Ryan and I send out, you have about ten purchases that you can copy each week.
Are you fearful in copying from Ryan's or my picks? Don't be. Because we are not investment advisors, we cannot tell you what to buy or what to sell. We can tell you what stocks meet our buy and sell rules.
So do this: Go to Yahoo or Google and set up a paper stock trading account. Set it up with a $5,000 cap. That's the amount you will be able to invest using 'play' money. Now follow Ryans Picks and Dick's Pick's. See whether you are gaining or losing money. Keep us updated on your picks.
To make this interesting , Ryan and I will set up an account and report our gains and losses to you. We will need to find a way to verify each person's losses or gains so that at the end we can pick our winners. Don't know what the winner(s) will get but we will make it worth your while.
We are open to any suggestions you have as to how we should do this. |
| Investing in 30 minutes a Week! |
A comment we hear from some users is that investing takes too much time, especially when you have to learn the ins and outs of a new system. In truth, investing can be as simple or as complex as you like. Here's a way to use North of the Blue and cut your investing time requires considerable time and analysis. Yes, it does.
Since not everyone wants to spend time every day analyzing stocks highlighted by North of the Blue or sent by others, we have an alternative. This allows you to apply one single rule in less than one half an hour per day.
First, Use our 17 Month Overview.
Second: remember this rule:
Buy a stock when it is gaining value and passing through our Blue Moving Average (BMA), i.e. going North of the Blue. Sell a stock when it's price is declining and is dropping down through our BMA.You can apply this rule either to our 17 Month Overview or our Channel Analysis.
Our 17 Month Overview was written for the investor who wants to devote as little time as possible to his or her investments and is looking for long term gains.
Here are some examples of real investing using our 17 Month Overview:
Put these symbols into your "Symbol" Window in the 17 Month Overview chart section and look at the results:
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IShares Lehman Aggregate Bond Fund (AGG) where you could have bought December 8, 2008 at $94.03 and still be holding the stock today where it has a value of $105.87. You would have a gain of $11.84 per share or 12.59% plus the dividends on these bonds. At the least you have an annualized gain of 25.18%. Since you are holding United States' Treasury Bonds you have no risk of a default.
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Dow Jones Industrial Trust I (DIA) where you could have bought on July 15 of last year at $82.71 and sold on June 7, 2010 at $99.92 with a gain of $17.21 a share or 20.80%. If you had used the Early Sell Rule you could have sold on May 3 at $111.40 for a gain of $28.69 per share or 34.68%. Again, you are dealing with a very conservative trust.
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IShares Cohen Steers Realty (ICF). We have all heard about how dangerous real estate investing is, haven't we. Check this: Buy 7/29/09 at $36.89 and sell 12/31/09 at $53.71 with a gain of $16.82 per share or 45.59%. What a way to end 2009!
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NetFlix Inc (NFLX). Buy February 2 at $60.87. Continue to hold with today's closing price of $115.43 for a gain of $54.56 or plus 89.63%.
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Of course, by doing this they will sacrifice some of their possible gains. We asked ourselves this question: What does North of the Blue offer that would allow users to take a more passive role in their stock management? If users did not want to work with Buys and Sells on a daily basis how could they deal with the very turbulent market we see today?
Here are some other examples of how the 17 Month Overview could have helped you:
- MED, 350% gain over 8 months;
- ACL, 48% gain over 6 months;
- CAAS, 321% over 9 months;
- OKSB, 26% over 1 month;
- VIT, 57% over 1 month;
- RGLD, 10% over 1 month;
- EGO, 33% over about 1 month;
- SA, 14% over about 1 month.
Simplifing your investing just got much, much easier. |
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An Offer you Simply Cannot Refuse! |
Would you like to see five stocks that are poised to follow our North of the BlueRule using our 17 Month Overview charts?.
If you call Dick Brenneke at 503-233-9452, email rjbrenneke@northoftheblue.com or come to this week's Wednesday evening seminar or dial in to our Tuesday evening Webcast you will hear what we have to say. The time is limited so don't put this off. Contact me and hitch your wagon to a star. These selections are available only to Paid Subscribers or registered, active Trial Subscribers.
What have you got to lose? |
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What's New! |
Ryan's newsletters continue to generate true interest. Please check them out since they can save you houirs of research every week. Not only do we tell you what stocks meet our buy rules, we telll you why. |
| What Do You Want From Us? |
This has become a regular question. How can we help you do a better job of investing and making a profit. Please let us know. Please don't leave and tell us that you just did not have enough time to master our system.
You learn to apply one rule to one chart platform and you are ready to go. We provide you with stock information nearly every day so you don't have to do any serious research. Your work time is about 30 minutes a week. How much easier can your investing life be? |
| North of the Blue's Vision |
Three principles set us apart from other stock analysis companies:
Support
Whether you are a paying subscriber or are using our system on a trial basis you will get world class support from your fellow Americans. American's wrote this program, support this program and help the program's users. Want to meet us in person, drop by our office in Portland, Oregon.
Stocks
You will receive regular stock suggestions from us. The stocks we send out meet one or more of our buy or sell rules. That's right, we tell you when stocks meet our sell tests too.
Simple and Transparent Rules
As you all know, we have one basic rule, our North of the Blue Rule. In essence it says that a stock meets our buy test when it climbs North of (up through) our Blue Moving Average (BMA) and meets our basic sell test when it drops South of (down through) our BMA. The rest of our rules are variations on this theme.
This is the reason that we have so many professional people as subscribers. CPA's, lawyers and others who deal with rules in their daily lives appreciate the fact that we not only tell you that a stock meets our buy or sell test but we also tell you why. |
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Indexes Year to Date
June 20, 2010 | % Change Year-to-Date | Market |
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| +18.53% | North of the Blue Current Portfolio |
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| +1.79% | Nasdaq OTC Comp Index |
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| +3.22% | Amex Composite Index |
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| +0.22% | S & P 500 Index |
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| +0.22% | Dow Jones Industrials Index |
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| +2.52% | IBD New America Index |
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| -2.74% | N.Y.S.E. Composite Index |
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| +17.47% | Gold Index |
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Update 6/21/2010 | The Company you May Keep: Always investigate before you invest. Always check our chart. Does your stock meet one of our Buy Rules? Is the price up more than 5% from a defined Buy-Point for the rule you are using? Over 5% may be more risky. Fundamental research includes knowing annual and current earnings and sales increases, high return on equity, better profit margins, sponsorship, market in a confirmed upturn. When either a sector or the market overall are in a downturn you need to pay particular attention to your reasons for buying. What, for instance, convinces you that a particular stock can buck a broad trend?
A company's inclusion in one of our lists should not be viewed as a recommendation. Many are newer, smaller and highly volatile companies that require further research due to their speculative nature. Companies located outside the United States bring added risks because of the influence government policies may have on the company. Detailed research on your part is imperative. | |
Buy Watch
June 20, 2010
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Please read Ryan's List and Dicks List.
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Current Portfolio Holdings
June 23, 2010
| Symbol | Company | Actions |
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| AU | Anglogold Ashanti Ltd. | Action Buy:5/21 at $38.04. Current price: $44.14. Gain $6.10 or 16.03%. |
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| REASONING: AU has blown through our Blue Moving Average and all of the resistance lines. It is a winner. | |
ABX | Barrick Gold | Action:: Buy 6/7 at $41.13 Today 44.96. Gain $3.83 or 9.31% |
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| REASONING:ABX continues to bounce off our Blue Moving Average. It continues to show a strong trend. | | BVN | Compania de Minas Buenaventu | Action: Buy 5/20 at $33.03; today $39.01 gain $5.98 or 18.10%. |
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| REASONING: BVN has developed a strong base and passed through two Resistance Lines with ease. Gold has been off but indications are that it will regain its status as a haven.. Serious money always neeeds a home. | | DGL | Powershares DB Gold | Action: Bought5/24 at $42.30. Sold 6/21 at $44.90. Gain $2.60 or 6.14% |
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| DGL is yet another gold based stock. Don't overbuy gold, but do keep it on your radar screen. | |
| Average Gain for this Portfolio |
12.39% | |
| Average hold time for this Portfolio |
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| Annualized Gain for this Portfolio |
214% |
| | Cash in the Bank Portfolio | |
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| Rules -- Expanded |
North of the Blue Stock Charts and Buy/Sell Rules
... Building-Block Strategy
... NOTB is simple, unique and driving gains out of this world
Click on "Master NOTB Chart" below. It links to a summary of North of the Blue's Chart outline. All charts use the same basic structure
North of the Blue is not built on magic dust, mirrors or slight of hand. It is built on one simple rule that allows an investor to control his or her own destiny. It is based on investments in solid stocks and analysis using our easy to understand, proprietary algorithms, charts and rules. Our algorithms and insights allows North of the Blue to give you a unique approach to making money in the stock market. | | North of the Blue does not depend on bells, whistles, arrows all over the chart and rulers that you put over a graph. Instead it builds on a single, very simple rule, to generate unbelievable profits. "Unbelievable" that is until you put the money into your bank account.
To work with North of the Blue you need to be kept current with our thinking. So, we keep you advised of our progress either in these weekly newsletters or by Twitter. In depth analysis can be found on our web site. On our web site you will see an example of how we used our basic rule and our building blocks for one stock in 2009 that led to gains ranging from 76% to 214%.Click here to see the how this happened.
Adding a rule, The Channel Rule. Click here for a well written explanation.
Here are our basic rules. We suggest that you clip these and keep them by your computer until they become second nature.
North of the Blue Basic Rule (NOTB BASIC RULE): A stock should be bought when its price is increasing up through our Blue Moving Average (BMA) and sold when its price is declining through our BMA.
But using the BASIC RULE leaves a considerable amount of money on the table. We do not capture this money because we wait for the sell half of the BASIC RULE to complete.
In order to recoup more of the gain without adding any risk we modify our BASIC RULE by adding to it our EARLY SELL RULE. The Early Sell Rule states that a stock should be sold when its High Price Strength and Upward Price Strength drop below 85%. We usually incorporate this as a confirming or auxiliary rule. Here's the complete rule:
North of the Blue Basic Rule with Early Sell: A stock should be bought when its price is increasing up through our Blue Moving Average (BMA) and sold (a) when its price is declining through our BMA OR (b) when its High Price Strength and Upward Price Strength drop below 85% on our green stochastic panel, whichever comes first.
In order to capture price gains before the stock price reaches the North of the Blue Moving Average we introduce a final modification of our BASIC RULE. The rule now provides more accurate (and more risky) early buying as well as early selling. Here's the complete rule:
North of the Blue Basic Rule with Early Buy and Early Sell: A stock should be bought (a) when its price is increasing up through our Blue Moving Average (BMA) OR (b) when its High Price Strength and Upward Price Strength join or nearly join and leave a severely oversold Red Zone, turn sharply up and climb through 50% and it should be sold when its High Price Strength and Upward Price Strength drop below 85%.
Another rule is based solely on the behavior of our Upward Price and High Price Strength for any given stock. This rule, called our STOCHASTIC "W" or POWER "W". It is a stand alone rule that does not depend on our Basic Rule. Here it is:
Stochastic "W" or Power "W": A stock can be safely bought when its Upward Price Strength and High Price Strength join and form a clearly identified "W" under our 15% Stochastic or Price Strength Line. The stock can be bought before the last part of the "W" climbs over 15%. To maximize profit the stock should be bought before the upward Price Strength line reaches 50%.
There is another stand alone rule that does not depend upon our Basic Rule. As you might expect when programmers and other technocrats get together to codify their rules for technical stock analysis, at least one rule will be based on how computers are used or programmed. Don't be disappointed because we left this until last. The rule is our MACHINE TRADING RULE. Here is the rule in a nutshell.
MACHINE TRADING RULE: A stock may be safely bought when it passes through one of our green, horizontal lines going up (Resistance Lines) OR when it rebounds up from one of these lines (Support Lines). The Machine Trading name comes from the points at which institutional investors have their computers set to buy and sell. If you look at how prices behave around these points you will see that these are the points that major market drivers come into play. More on this in a later newsletter.
Here is a rule we introduced in April of this year, our Integration Rule. It emphasizes the fact that North of the Blue is an integrated, cohesive system. All of the pieces must function together to provide valid buy and sell decisions.
INTEGRATION RULE: A stock may be safely bought using this rule when: (1) it is rising in value; (2) the Blue Moving Average (BMA) displays a smooth, upward trend; (3) there are no significant Resistance Lines above the stock price; (4) the Upward Price Strength and the High Price Strength are joined above 85%; (5) there is continuous buying volume and that volume is near or above 100% of our Average Volume. The stock should be sold when any of these conditions are no longer true.
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| How to Find Us |
Telephones:
General Office: (503) 233-9452
Support: (503) 446-9390
Address, meetings by appointment:
11000 SW Barbur Blvd, Ste 100
Portland, Oregon 97219
Mail:
North of the Blue
P.O. Box 569
Lake Oswego, Oregon 97034
North of the Blue is a dba owned by Custom Computer Programming, LLC. Billings for North of the Blue come from Custom Computer Programming, LLC |
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Sincerely,
Richard Brenneke
North of the Blue, America's Stock Analysis System
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