Executive Newsletter North of the Blue
America's Stock Analysis System
April 12, 2010 |
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| Greetings! |  We felt it was important and very exciting for us to get you our weekly update early. Here's why: - We are now able to provide you with information on RED ZONE stocks as never before. Now you can see them when they enter the RED ZONE, while they are in the Zone and when they leave the Zone. Never before has anyone been able to pick up on stocks when they hit this critical buying period. To better understand the value of this we have segregated what we call our RUNNING RED ZONE stocks into their own selections. Now you can pinpoint where you are most comfortable selecting your own buy point. Click here to see our RUNNING RED ZONE listing or just scroll down this newsletter.
- For the first time we began using our INTEGRATION RULE. We discussed it at our last Wednesday meeting. We will work through it again at our next Wednesday get together. This is a chance for you to see what happens if you buy after someone else has used their money to prove that the stock has real value.
- Don't forget all that we bring you. At your fingertips you have information on the top 15 stocks world wide,just click here; the top ten U.S. sectors and the top stocks in each of these sectors, just click here;
- For our brand new RED RUNNERS listing click here.
Enjoy and let us know what your think. The best of all investing to you. Dick |
| What's New! |
 At our April 14 and 21 meetings we will go over a just move to production rule -- The Integration Rule. It is a six part rule that includes both buy and sell sides. We have had this in development and beta test for nearly two years. The response to the rule has been very positive. This led us to bring the rule out now.
We have also set up a new North of the Blue Red Runners Stock section. We are very proud of what we produce here and believe that you will find it is the fastest way to pinpoint new stocks as they meet our buy rules. |
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Indexes Year to Date | % Change Year-to-Date | Market |
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| 16.29% | North of the Blue Current Portfolio |
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| 8.15% | Nasdaq OTC Comp Index |
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| 7.76% | Amex Composite Index |
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| 7.11% | S & P 500 Index |
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| 5.46% | Dow Jones Industrials Index |
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| 5.46% | IBD New America Index |
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| 6.18% | N.Y.S.E Composite Index |
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| 7.15% | Gold Index |
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*For a detailed listing of the top stocks in each sector please go to the "List" section of our program. The first stocks will be those with the highest high last week. For example, the first 45 stocks in the "Retail" list is a listing of the stocks and their charts. After the "------" you will find those from the prior week and after the next "------" those from two weeks ago, etc. You get the picture.
Update 4/11/2010 | The Company you May Keep: Always investigate before you invest. Always check our chart. Does your stock meet one of our Buy Rules? Is the price up more than 5% from a defined Buy-Point for the rule you are using? Over 5% may be more risky. Fundamental research includes knowing annual and current earnings and sales increases, high return on equity, better profit margins, sponsorship, market in a confirmed upturn. When either a sector or the market overall are in a downturn you need to pay particular attention to your reasons for buying. What, for instance, convinces you that a particular stock can buck a broad trend?
A company's inclusion in one of our lists should not be viewed as a recommendation. Many are newer, smaller and highly volatile companies that require further research due to their speculative nature. Companies located outside the United States bring added risks because of the influence government policies may have on the company. Detailed research on your part is imperative. | |
Buy-Watch
North of the Blue's - Red Runners
April 11, 2010
| TNDM | Neutral Tandem, Inc. | Neutral Tandem, Inc. |
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| REASONING: TNDM 4/11Move to Buy Watch NOW. Could be near term buy when it meets our Basic Rule. Also need to wait for the Power lines to join. | | VISN | Vision China Media Ads | B-W 4/9 $4.91 at close. |
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| REASONING: VISN 4/11 Move to Buy Watch NOW. Power lines are climbing out of their RED ZONE. | | PALM | Palm Inc. | B-W 4/9/ $5.16. |
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| REASONING: PALM 4/11 If you are of the Top Gun mentality and have the money to live through a potential loss, this one is a buy right now. For the rest of the world let's wait for the Power lines to join. | | NTRI | Nutrisystems Inc. | B-W 4/9 18.93 at close. |
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| REASONING: NTRI 4/11 Definitely meets our North of the Blue Basic Rule AND our North of the Blue Early Buy Rule. If you are of the Top Gun mentality and have the money to live through a potential loss, this one is a buy right now. For the rest of the world let's wait for the Power lines to join. | | UQM | UQM Technologies Inc. | B-W 4/9 4.08 at close. |
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| REASONING: UOM 4/11 Move to Buy Watch NOW. Will meet NOTB with Early Buy Rule if both Power lines merge. | | BWEN | Broadwind Energy Inc. | B-W 4/9 close at $4.34 |
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| REASONING: BWEN 4/11 Both Power lines falling below 15% and stock will enter Red Zone in a day or two.Put on Buy Watch until the stock is out of the Power Red Zone. | | YTEC | Yucheng Tech Ltd BVI | B-W 4/9 $4.00 at close; |
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| REASONING: YTEC 4/11 Moved out of Red Zone and stock may cross the BMA WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. If so, it would meet our NOTB Basic Rule. | | CML | Compellent Tech | B-W 4/9 $ | | REASONING: CML on 4/11 Power falling under 15% for both components. Just entering a Power Red Zone. Certainly a Buy Watch. | |
ABT | Abbott Labs | Action: BW: 4/9 at $52.73 (close price) |
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| REASONING: ABT just left the Red Zone and has climbed through 15%. It is too early to buy but this one now but it definitely goes on our Buy Watch List. If High Price and Upward Price Strength both continue to gain this will soon fit our Early Buy Rule. Watch this as it climbs out of the current RED ZONE buy watch. |
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Simple Buy-Watch
Non Red Runners
April 11, 2010
| Symbol | Company | Actions |
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| AMAT | Applied Materials Inc. | Action: BW 4/9 at $13.47 close. |
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| REASONING: AMAT has been on and off our lists for several weeks now. has finally fought its way through the thicket of Resistance Lines and has settled above the top line for two days in a row. One more day of watching should confirm whether this will still meet our tests for a buy. We also need to watch and see if the Upward Price Strength and High Price Strength remain over 85% .4/11 Stock has climbed out of the RED ZONE and past the BMA. But, it is still held up by the numerous Resistance Lines. | |
APOL | Apollo Group, Inc. | Action: BW: 4/5 at $61.50 (open price) |
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| REASONING: ABT fell sharply and today rebounded up from our Blue Moving Average. However, rather than going back up, it hit a Machine Generated Resistance Line. We need to wait and see how it resolves itself here. We also need to see what happens with the Upward Price and High Price Strength lines. They separated and the High Price Strength looks to be leveling off at about 50% while the Upward Price Strength appears to be leveling in the 60% area. This stock does not meet our tests now but will if the Strength lines turn and begin to climb. On 3/30 we thought it might have turned the corner but it had not. Within a day (before we could buy) the stock had turned down and so remains a Buy Watch. | | CAGC | China Agritech | Action: BW 4/5 at $22.99; 4/11 RED ZONE buy watch. |
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| REASONING: CAGC just bounced off the Blue Moving Average alter a very steep decent. The Channel shows a definite climb. But, both the High Price Strength and the Upward Price Strength have fallen severely with the Blue Line nearing 15% and the Black nearing 50%. This is not a good sign. With power dropping like this, the buy signals do not line up and we are in a definite wait and see situation. Monday is a Blue buying day but the last few days have been Red selling days. All in all, we need to watch this stock. | |
APOL | Apollo Group, Inc. | Action: BW: 4/5 at $61.50 (open price) |
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| REASONING: ABT fell sharply and today rebounded up from our Blue Moving Average. However, rather than going back up, it hit a Machine Generated Resistance Line. We need to wait and see how it resolves itself here. We also need to see what happens with the Upward Price and High Price Strength lines. They separated and the High Price Strength looks to be leveling off at about 50% while the Upward Price Strength appears to be leveling in the 60% area. This stock does not meet our tests now but will if the Strength lines turn and begin to climb. On 3/30 we thought it might have turned the corner but it had not. Within a day (before we could buy) the stock had turned down and so remains a Buy Watch. 4/11 still waiting for APOL to clear the thicket of Resistance Lines. | | | |
Current Portfolio Holdings
April 11, 2010
| Symbol | Company | Actions |
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CSCO | Cisco Systems | Action Buy: 2/1 at open $22.65; hold with stops; 2/23 sold at $24.20 gain 6.84%. This may be eligible for another buy.3/2 buy 3/2 $24.66. Gain 6.83%. 3/18 HOLD at $26.42 with a gain of 16.64%. 3/23 26.75 gain 18.1% 4/6/ high $26.38 gain 16.46%; 4/9 $26.60 at close. HOLD up 17.42% in nine weeks. Annualized = 100% |
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| REASONING: Cisco has been one of the most active stocks on the NASDAQ Exchange over the past ten days. It moved out of the Red Zone while forming a near perfect "W". I say "near perfect". It is a good sign although it could be better. But, the High Price Strength and Upward Price Strength joined an dare now climbing in lockstep. This stock is poised to go North of the Blue with real strength. We are looking at a serious buy in the next day or so. Stock climbed back through the BMA and ma be in line for another buy. Cicso went back through the Blue Moving Average. Trend still good. 4/6 hold. | |
GCI | Gannett Inc. | Action: BW: 31/2/10 at $15.95; 3/9 16.00 gain 3.1%. 3/18 $16.84 hold gain 5.58% 3/23 16.80 gain 5.3% in 2 weeks; 4/6 $17.54 gain 10.59%; 4/9 close at $17.79. Hold, up 11.54% in five weeks. Annualized = 120%. |
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| REASONING: GCI broke through our BMA* on March 1 at $15.22. If the Upward Price and High Price Strength lines join and continue to 85% this could be a winner. In fact, three are a number of very good reasons to buy now. It looks like it is resuming the trend which started in July of 2009. 4/6/10 Good trend. Hold. | |
INTC | Intel CP | Action:: BW: 2/7; buy 3/2 $21.00; 3.9 21.20 hold gain 1%; 3/18 HOLD with a gain of 6.14%. 3/23 22.75 gain 8.33%; 4/6/10 high $22.48 gain 7.05% hold; HOLD 4/9 at $22.55 close. Gain 7.38% in 5 weeks. Annualized = 47.97% annualized. |
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| REASONING: Intel is beginning to show serious strength. It broke through our Red Zone with ease and is now beginning to climb toward 50%. We will have to wait until the Strength lines join and the price to work its way through the numerous Resistance Lines between the current price and our BMA*. Keep this one on your radar screen. Everything I see and read tells me that silicon chip makers (That's what they make computer chips out of.) are very, very busy. 3/2 If you have any money left after buying the gold stocks look hard at Intel. I think it is poised to generate another trend line like the one we saw from July through November. Hold for very good trend. Also look at significant growth in silicon wafer sector. | | MRVL | Marvell Technology Group | Action: B-W 3/29 $20.16; 3/6 high $21 gain 4.96% in 1 week; 4/9 hold at close of $20.97. Gain 4.02% in two weeks. Annualized = 104.52%. |
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| REASONING: MRVL is ratcheting up its price every day. There are no giant leaps, but each day brings another step back and then up again. Fortunately the ups are greater than the downs and the trend line has begun to swing up. Another day or two should make this a solid buy. | |
NEWP | Newport CP | Action: Buy at $8.67; 2/23 hold 3/9 11.41 hold gain 31.60%; 3/18 HOLD with a gain of 38.29%. 3/23 11.94 gain 37.71%; 4/6 $13.13 gain 51.444% one month hold; 4/9 HOLD closed at $13. Gain 49.94% in four weeks. . Annualized = 649% |
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| REASONING: This stock has shown significant buying volume over the past week or so. Upward Price Strength and High Price Strength have joined forces and are continuing to climb. However, we need to see them pass the 85% marker before this becomes a serious contender. As you can see, the price line is poised to pass through our BMA*. 2/2 stock rebounded off Machine Generated Support Line; climbed through BMA*. Strong upward trend, hold. | | PFE | Pfizer, Inc. | Action: 3/23 worth a buy at $17.54. 4/6 hold; 4/11 hold. |
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| Watch PFE to see that the black Upward Price Strength continues to push toward 85% and that neither hooks or goes flat or that they separate further. go flat. Now it qualifies as an early buy so watch with that in mind. PFE is climbing well now and the power lines show signs of joining soon. | | TLAB | Tellabs, Inc. | Action: Bought 2/16/10 at open at $6.70; 3/2 $7.16 gain 6.87%; 3/9 7.45 gain 11.19% ; 3/18 HOLD with a gain of 17.13%. 3/23 7.66 gain 14.32%; 4/6 high $8.00 gain 19.42% hold; 4/9/ hold at $7.90 close. Gain 17.91% in eight weeks. Annualized = 116.41% |
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| I bought TLAB a little late but believe I can still participate in the growth based on its well established trend line. 4/6 hold as the trend line strengthens. | |
| Average Gain for this Portfolio |
16.29% | |
| Average hold time for this Portfolio |
5 weeks | |
| Annualized Gain for this Portfolio |
169.41% |
| | Cash in the Bank Portfolio | |
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| Rules |
North of the Blue Stock Charts and Buy/Sell Rules
... Building-Block Strategy
... NOTB is simple, unique and driving gains out of this world
Click on "Master NOTB Chart" below. It links to a summary of North of the Blue's Chart outline. All charts use the same basic structure
North of the Blue is not built on magic dust, mirrors or slight of hand. It is built on one simple rule that allows an investor to control his or her own destiny. It is based on investments in solid stocks and analysis using our easy to understand, proprietary algorithms, charts and rules. Our algorithms and insights allows North of the Blue to give you a unique approach to making money in the stock market. | | North of the Blue does not depend on bells, whistles, arrows all over the chart and rulers that you put over a graph. Instead it builds on a single, very simple rule, to generate unbelievable profits. "Unbelievable" that is until you put the money into your bank account.
To work with North of the Blue you need to be kept current with our thinking. So, we keep you advised of our progress either in these weekly newsletters or by Twitter. In depth analysis can be found on our web site. On our web site you will see an example of how we used our basic rule and our building blocks for one stock in 2009 that led to gains ranging from 76% to 214%.Click here to see the how this happened.
Adding a rule, The Channel Rule. Click here for a well written explanation.
Here are our basic rules. We suggest that you clip these and keep them by your computer until they become second nature.
North of the Blue Basic Rule (NOTB BASIC RULE): A stock should be bought when its price is increasing up through our Blue Moving Average (BMA) and sold when its price is declining through our BMA.
But using the BASIC RULE leaves a considerable amount of money on the table. We do not capture this money because we wait for the sell half of the BASIC RULE to complete.
In order to recoup more of the gain without adding any risk we modify our BASIC RULE by adding to it our EARLY SELL RULE. The Early Sell Rule states that a stock should be sold when its High Price Strength and Upward Price Strength drop below 85%. We usually incorporate this as a confirming or auxiliary rule. Here's the complete rule:
North of the Blue Basic Rule with Early Sell: A stock should be bought when its price is increasing up through our Blue Moving Average (BMA) and sold (a) when its price is declining through our BMA OR (b) when its High Price Strength and Upward Price Strength drop below 85% on our green stochastic panel, whichever comes first.
In order to capture price gains before the stock price reaches the North of the Blue Moving Average we introduce a final modification of our BASIC RULE. The rule now provides more accurate (and more risky) early buying as well as early selling. Here's the complete rule:
North of the Blue Basic Rule with Early Buy and Early Sell: A stock should be bought (a) when its price is increasing up through our Blue Moving Average (BMA) OR (b) when its High Price Strength and Upward Price Strength join or nearly join and leave a severely oversold Red Zone, turn sharply up and climb through 50% and it should be sold when its High Price Strength and Upward Price Strength drop below 85%.
Another rule is based solely on the behavior of our Upward Price and High Price Strength for any given stock. This rule, called our STOCHASTIC "W" or POWER "W". It is a stand alone rule that does not depend on our Basic Rule. Here it is:
Stochastic "W" or Power "W": A stock can be safely bought when its Upward Price Strength and High Price Strength join and form a clearly identified "W" under our 15% Stochastic or Price Strength Line. The stock can be bought before the last part of the "W" climbs over 15%. To maximize profit the stock should be bought before the upward Price Strength line reaches 50%.
There is one more stand alone rule that does not depend upon our Basic Rule. As you might expect when programmers and other technocrats get together to codify their rules for technical stock analysis, at least one rule will be based on how computers are used or programmed. Don't be disappointed because we left this until last. The rule is our MACHINE TRADING RULE. Here is the rule in a nutshell.
MACHINE TRADING RULE: A stock may be safely bought when it passes through one of our green, horizontal lines going up (Resistance Lines) OR when it rebounds up from one of these lines (Support Lines). The Machine Trading name comes from the points at which institutional investors have their computers set to buy and sell. If you look at how prices behave around these points you will see that these are the points that major market drivers come into play. More on this in a later newsletter.
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| How to Find Us |
Telephones:
General Office: (503) 233-9452
Support: (503) 446-9390
Address, meetings by appointment:
11000 SW Barbur Blvd, Ste 100
Portland, Oregon 97219
Mail:
North of the Blue
P.O. Box 569
Lake Oswego, Oregon 97034
North of the Blue is a dba owned by Custom Computer Programming, LLC. Billings for North of the Blue come from Custom Computer Programming, LLC | |
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Remember to join us for a detailed view of our latest rule, The Integration Rule, where you let someone else spend the dollars proving that the stock is a good buy and you join to collect some cash. Almost too good to be true. But, it does not cost you a penny to find out.
Sincerely,
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Richard Brenneke
North of the Blue, America's Stock Analysis System
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