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Greetings!
I want to begin by thanking all of you who are coming to our Wednesday night meetings. We really appreciate that. We are especially proud of those who have benefited from the meetings. This week Bryan Butcher is responsible for spotting three, yes the old hat trick. I grew up playing amateur hockey but for those who miss the significance this means scoring three goals in one game. The term originated in Cricket, which I did not play.
Now, does anyone other than Bryan have stock suggestions for us? A new person at the meeting this Wednesday will be Jim Williams who has been riding SNS-Steak and Shake. He is up over 50%. He thinks that we can help him improve his record. A tough job but we will try.At our Wednesday, February 17 evening meeting I'd appreciate it if everyone brought along one stock that he or she feels has investment potential. I'd like you to defend your choice based on on our rules. Nothing gets the brain engaged so well as finding out how much you really have learned. If we pick your stock it will be featured in our Execute Newsletter with full credit given to the one who selected it.
Those attending our Wednesday meeting on the 17th are in for a real treat. -- Our new tutorial written by my partner Jim Pedersen. It is spectacular and will help you polish the rough edges in your learning. It will also greatly accelerate your learning curve. Our goal is to get you into position to make money now. Many stocks are hitting our Red Zone in the Stochastic Panel. These are stocks that are severely oversold. When they break out you need to be ready to take advantage of the situation.
Have any of you used the "How it Works" section? What do you think of it? Are there any pages that you feel are especially well done? Any that could use serious constructive criticism?
In order to get you into a money making position as quickly as possible, we are now opening up one-on-one and small group meetings during the day. The charge is $25 per hour per participant. All we ask is that you book your time in advance and receive a confirmation number from our office. Unfortunately, we cannot deal with walk ins. We need to know who is coming and when.
We will continue to have our evening meetings on Wednesdays from 7:00PM to 8:30PM. No charge. Reservations are necessary. Call or email us to get a confirmation. We are trying to avoid turning these meetings into a lecture hall scenario. We want them to be small groups of 12 to 15 folks where you can network with your neighbors and work together to resolve issues. These meetings are scheduled for every Wednesday through February and March. You do not need to come to every seminar.
Dick Brenneke
February 16, 2010
503-233-9452 or 503-926-7567
Portland, Oregon 97202
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How are we Doing? Is there really any doubt?
... Where the real profit is
At February 16, 2010 |
January /February
| North of the Blue |
gain 12.5% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average |
loss -3.26% |
| S&P: |
loss -3.46% |
| NASDQ |
loss - 4.27% |
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| North of the Blue 13 sales; 10 gains 3 losses |
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Web Site Notes
.... February 16, 2010
Look at What Members Have at Their Fingertips.
Here is the detail regarding our Change List, Buy Watch List, Current Portfolio Holdings and our Cash in the Bank Portfoliio Listing. In addition, you can see how we have done in relation to the major indices. Just click here.
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Security
We have secured our Twitter account so that only registered users receive them. That means that when you set up your own Twitter account and say that you want to follow "northoftheblue" you are told that you need to be approved for you to be able to follow us. Several times a day I go to this site and allow our subscribers who have not registered with Twitter to use our accounts. |
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Educational Seminars
... in person
Monday, February 1, we held our first seminar for North of the Blue paid subscribers and trial subscribers. We had 13 people present which was just about what we wanted. According to everyone the meeting was an unqualified success.
We learned several lessons. Perhaps the most important was that one hour is not enough time. Next time we will shoot for two hours with the understanding that those who need to leave early are free to do so. The key thing that became clear to me was that I need to focus on two or three specific examples.
We have scheduled meetings every Wednesday evening from 7:00PM to 8:30PM at 11000 SW Barbur Blvd. Right now we are scheduled through the end of March. There is still room but don't wait too long. We have scheduled these meetings through February and March. Please call or email in advance to reserve your place. We want to avoid a lecture hall scenario. These seminars need to be smaller so that participants can network and work with each other to find solutions.
Yes, you will have plenty of time to ask your questions. The goal of these meetings and on our one-on-one daytime meetings is to get you up to the point where you can make prudent, profitable choices based on a thorough understanding of our very simple charts and rules.
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North of the Blue Stock Charts
... simple, unique and driving gains out of this world
February 16, 2010
Here is a summary of a North of the Blue Chart. All use the same basic structure. Please click on "Chart Image" below to see a comprehensive explanation of North of the Blue Stock Charts.
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North of the Blue Buy/Sell Rules
... Building Block Strategy
North of the Blue is not built on magic dust, mirrors or slight of hand. It is built on one simple rule that allows an investor to control his or her own destiny. It is based on investments in solid stocks and analysis using our easy to understand charts and rules. Our algorithms and insights make North of the Blue a unique approach to making money in the stock market. |
| North of the Blue does not depend on bells, whistles, arrows all over the chart and rulers that you put over a graph. Instead it builds on a single, very simple rule, to generate unbelievable profits. "Unbelievable" that is until you put the money into your bank account.
Here are our basic rules. We suggest that you clip these and keep them by your computer until they become second nature.
North of the Blue Basic Rule (NOTB BASIC RULE): A stock should be bought when its price is increasing up through our Blue Moving Average (BMA) and sold when its price is declining through our BMA.
But using the BASIC RULE leaves a considerable amount of money on the table. We do not capture this money because we wait for the sell half of the BASIC RULE to complete.
In order to recoup more of the gain without adding any risk we modify our BASIC RULE by adding to it our EARLY SELL RULE. The Early Sell Rule states that a stock should be sold when its High Price Strength and Upward Price Strength drop below 85%. We usually incorporate this as a confirming or auxiliary rule. Here's the complete rule:
North of the Blue Basic Rule with Early Sell: A stock should be bought when its price is increasing up through our Blue Moving Average (BMA) and sold (a) when its price is declining through our BMA OR (b) when its High Price Strength and Upward Price Strength drop below 85% on our green stochastic panel, whichever comes first.
In order to capture price gains before the stock price reaches the North of the Blue Moving Average we introduce a final modification of our BASIC RULE. The rule now provides more accurate (and more risky) early buying as well as early selling. Here's the complete rule:
North of the Blue Basic Rule with Early Buy and Early Sell: A stock should be bought (a) when its price is increasing up through our Blue Moving Average (BMA) OR (b) when its High Price Strength and Upward Price Strength join or nearly join and leave a severely oversold Red Zone, turn sharply up and climb through 50% and it should be sold when its High Price Strength and Upward Price Strength drop below 85%.
Another rule is based solely on the behavior of our Upward Price and High Price Strength for any given stock. This rule, called our STOCHASTIC "W" or POWER "W". It is a stand alone rule that does not depend on our Basic Rule. Here it is:
Stochastic "W" or Power "W": A stock can be safely bought when its Upward Price Strength and High Price Strength join and form a clearly identified "W" under our 15% Stochastic or Price Strength Line. The stock can be bought before the last part of the "W" climbs over 15%. To maximize profit the stock should be bought before the upward Price Strength line reaches 50%.
There is one more stand alone rule that does not depend upon our Basic Rule. As you might expect when programmers and other technocrats get together to codify their rules for technical stock analysis, at least one rule will be based on how computers are used or programmed. Don't be disappointed because we left this until last. The rule is our MACHINE TRADING RULE. Here is the rule in a nutshell.
MACHINE TRADING RULE: A stock may be safely bought when it passes through one of our green, horizontal lines going up (Resistance Lines) OR when it rebounds up from one of these lines (Support Lines). The Machine Trading name comes from the points at which institutional investors have their computers set to buy and sell. If you look at how prices behave around these points you will see that these are the points that major market drivers come into play. More on this in a later newsletter.
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Changes
... buys, sells and moves to Buy-Watch since our earlier Executive Newsletter.
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Change List February 16, 2010
*BMA = Blue Moving Average
| Symbol |
Stock |
Actions |
| REASONING: What rules were applied, why and when. |
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BDH |
Broadband Holders
seeks to diversify your investment in the broadband business through a single, exchange-listed instrument representing your undivided beneficial ownership of the underlying securities. The trust holds shares of common stock issued by specified companies that, when initially selected, were involved in the broadband industry. Except when a reconstitution event, distribution of securities by an underlying issuer or other event occurs, the group of companies will not change. There are currently 22 companies included in the Broadband HOLDRS. The top ten are in our "Lists" under BDH_BROADBAND_ETF. |
Action: Bought 2/1/10 at $5.91; sell 2/5 at $6.77; gain 14.55% |
| REASONING: A clear Stochastic-W has formed under the 15% line. The final leg of the "W" does not have the 60 degree angle of climb we would lke to see but it is comin up. This stock has never been a fast mover, but it has been one that does not bounce around. It is worth a buy, which we executed at the open on 2/16 at $11.07. |
| BRCM |
Broadcom CP CLA One of the prime movers for BDH. |
Action: Bought 2/12/10 at $30.30; |
| REASONING: The stock blew through the BMA* at the speed of light. Absolutely no hesitation. I'm watching this carefully because it has a history of small gains. |
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CAAS |
China Automotive Systems |
Action: Bought 2/16/10 at $17.00; |
| A perfect Stochastic-W formed last week. Bryan Butcher found this one. Kudos Bryan. Well worth a buy this Tuesday. I would suggest caution since the "W" appears to be flattening out. However, buying is still very good and the price is still rising. |
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CYD |
China Yuchai International Limited |
Action: Bought 2/16/10 at $14.20; |
| A perfect Stochastic-W formed last week. Bryan Butcher found this one. Nice going Bryan. Well worth a buy this Tuesday. I would suggest caution since the "W" appears to be flattening out. However, buying is still very good and the price is still rising. |
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HMIN |
Home Inns Hotels Management |
Action: Bought 2/16/10 at open $31.61; |
| A perfect Stochastic-W formed last week. Bryan Butcher found this one. It looks like Ryan pulled off the "hat trick". Very nice going. |
| MOT |
Motorola, Inc. |
Action: Bought 2/16/10 at open at $7.29; |
| Motorola formed a nearly perfect Stochastic-W last week. That ant the fact that it is a driver in the Broadband ETF make it an Early Buy in my book. |
| TLAB |
Tellabs, Inc. |
Action: Bought 2/16/10 at open at $6.74; |
| I boujght TLAB a little late but believe I can still participate in the growth based on its well established trend line. | |
Buy-Watch List February 16, 2010
| Symbol |
Company |
Actions |
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ABX |
Barrick Gold |
Action: BW: 1/23/10 |
| REASONING: Watch for rebound off of Support Level. |
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APOL |
Apollo Group Inc. CL A |
Action: BW:1/23/10 |
| REASONING: Watch for rebound off of Support Level |
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GG |
Goldcorp Inc New |
Action: BW: 1/23/10 |
| REASONING: Watch for rebound off of Support Level. Price touched the BMA*. Good rebound. Watch to see if the Upward Price Strength and High Price Strength both point up in the next day or so. |
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GLD |
SPDR Gold Trust |
Action: BW: 1/23/10 |
| REASONING: Watch for rebound off of Support Level |
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GOLD |
Rangold Resources Ltd. |
Action: BW: 1/23/10 |
| REASONING: Watch for rebound off of Support Level. Price touched the BMA*. Good rebound. Watch to see if the Upward Price Strength and High Price Strength both point up in the next day or so. |
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INTC |
Intel CP |
Action:: BW: 2/7 |
| REASONING: Intel is beginning to show serious strength. It broke through our Red Zone with ease and is now beginning to climb toward 50%. We will have to wait until the Strength lines join and the price to work its way through the numerous Resistance Lines between the current price and our BMA*. Keep this one on your radar screen. Everything I see and read tells me that silicon chip makers (That's what they make computer chips out of.) are very, very busy. |
| REASONING: News Corporation could buck the industry trend by posting real profits. Moreover, we see a solid Stochastic "W" that formed over the past few days. The buy high price average looks like a rocket poised for lunar lift off. It is easy to see this coming out of the Red Jail Bars and climbing north of our BMA*. Watch this one closely. |
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VPRT |
VistaPrint NV Ord The Netherlands |
Action BW:1/23/10 |
| REASONING: Stock failed to cross BMA; Stochastics fell off sharply. |
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Also check "DickPicks" in your "DicksPicks"List in our program and NOTB-BUY-WATCH list. |
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| Current Portfolio Holdings
February 16, 2010 |
| Symbol |
Company |
Actions |
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BBNK |
Bridge Capital Holdings |
Action: Buy: 1/29/10 at $6.79; 2/16 hold still well North of the Blue |
| REASONING: Used Basic Rule. Stock crossed the BMA* on 1/29/10. Both the Upward Price and High Price Strength lines joined as the climbed from the 50% stochastic area and went through the 85% line on 1/29. I waited until later in the day to make sure the stock climbed through the strong Resistance Lines. Note the solid buy volume on the two preceding days. |
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BDH |
Broadband Holders
seeks to diversify your investment in the broadband business through a single, exchange-listed instrument representing your undivided beneficial ownership of the underlying securities. The trust holds shares of common stock issued by specified companies that, when initially selected, were involved in the broadband industry. Except when a reconstitution event, distribution of securities by an underlying issuer or other event occurs, the group of companies will not change. There are currently 22 companies included in the Broadband HOLDRS. The top ten are in our "Lists" under BDH_BROADBAND_ETF. |
Action: Bought 2/1/10 at $5.91; sell 2/5 at $6.77; gain 14.55% |
| REASONING: A clear Stochastic-W has formed under the 15% line. The final leg of the "W" does not have the 60 degree angle of climb we would lke to see but it is comin up. This stock has never been a fast mover, but it has been one that does not bounce around. It is worth a buy, which we executed at the open on 2/16 at $11.07. |
| BRCM |
Broadcom CP CLA One of the prime movers for BDH. |
Action: Bought 2/12/10 at $30.30; |
| REASONING: The stock blew through the BMA* at the speed of light. Absolutely no hesitation. I'm watching this carefully because it has a history of small gains. |
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COHR |
Coherent, Inc. |
Action Buy: 2/1/10 at $29.66; 2/16 hold still well North of the Blue |
| REASONING: Used Basic Rule. Stock crossed the BMA* on 1/29/10. We could have bought at that point. However, I waited until the Upward Price and High Price Strength lines joined, left the stochastic Red Zone and climbed through the 85% line. This could have been bought on !/30 but I decided to wait and see if the Upward and High Price Strength lines would settle above 85%. |
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CSCO |
Cisco Systems |
Action Buy: 2/1 at open $22.65; hold with stops |
| REASONING: Cisco has been one of the most active stocks on the NASDAQ Exchange over the past ten days. It moved out of the Red Zone while forming a near perfect "W". I say "near perfect". It is a good sign although it could be better. But, the High Price Strength and Upward Price Strength joined an dare now climbing in lockstep. This stock is poised to go North of the Blue with real strength. We are looking at a serious buy in the next day or so. |
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CYD |
China Yuchai International Limited |
Action: Bought 2/16/10 at $14.20; |
| A perfect Stochastic-W formed last week. Bryan Butcher found this one. Nice going Bryan. Well worth a buy this Tuesday. I would suggest caution since the "W" appears to be flattening out. However, buying is still very good and the price is still rising. |
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EDZ |
Emerging Markets Bear 3X Shares FD |
Action: Buy: 1/22 at $5.37; sell 2/16 at $5.37 |
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REASONING: stock reacted very well to $87 Machine Generated Resistance Level; set new Machine Generated Resistance Level at $89.80 (always a positive sign); stock hesitated at multiple Machine Generated Resistance Levels but continue slow climb. Stock does not seem to be going anywhere. Watch to rebuy. |
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HMIN |
Home Inns Hotels Management |
Action: Bought 2/16/10 at open $31.61; |
| A perfect Stochastic-W formed last week. Bryan Butcher found this one. It looks like Ryan pulled off the "hat trick". Very nice going. |
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IEF |
- iShares TR; Lehman 7 - 10 year Treasury Bonds |
Action: Buy: 1/22/10 at $90.46; watch for break through Resistance Level. |
| REASONING: Buy:Basic Rule with Early Buy. Stock moved rapidly out of Stochastic Red Zone then jumped very quickly tot 50%. Not surprising since bonds are a traditional hedge in troubled times such as we have now. Here you get the equity gain as well as the interest But watch to see if Strength lines continue to climb. Upward Price Strength is lagging. (Note: interest is paid if you hold the bond for at least one quarter.)XXXXXXXX; |
| MOT |
Motorola, Inc. |
Action: Bought 2/16/10 at open at $7.29; |
| Motorola formed a nearly perfect Stochastic-W last week. That ant the fact that it is a driver in the Broadband ETF make it an Early Buy in my book. |
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NEWP |
Newport CP |
Action: Buy at $8.67; 2/7 hold |
| REASONING: This stock has shown significant buying volume over the past week or so. Upward Price Strength and High Price Strength have joined forces and are continuing to climb. However, we need to see them pass the 85% marker before this becomes a serious contender. As you can see, the price line is poised to pass through our BMA*. 2/2 stock rebounded off Machine Generated Support Line; climbed through BMA*. |
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NWSA |
News Corporation CLA |
Action: Buy 2/1 with WEAK STOCHASTIC "W" at $4.59; 2/7 hold to see if it breaks through the Resistance Line. |
| REASONING: News Corporation could buck the industry trend by posting real profits. Moreover, we see a solid Stochastic "W" that formed over the past few days. The buy high price average looks like a rocket poised for lunar lift off. It is easy to see this coming out of the Red Jail Bars and climbing north of our BMA*. Watch this one closely. 2/1 buy. 2/7 Stochastic W did not hold; fell below BMA*; hold for trend line to continue. |
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SHY |
iShares TR Lehman 1 - 3 Year Treasury Bonds |
Action: Buy: 1/22/10 at $83.52 |
| REASONING: Buy:Basic Rule with Early Buy. Stock moved rapidly out of Stochastic Red Zone then jumped very quickly past 50%. Not surprising since bonds are a traditional hedge in troubled times such as we have now. Here you get the equity gain as well as the interest (Note: interest is paid if you hold the bond for at least one quarter.) |
| TLAB |
Tellabs, Inc. |
Action: Bought 2/16/10 at open at $6.74; |
| I boujght TLAB a little late but believe I can still participate in the growth based on its well established trend line. |
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TLT |
iShares TR Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bonds |
Action: Buy:: 1/22/10 at $91.86 |
| REASONING: Basic Rule with Early Buy. Stock moved rapidly out of Stochastic Red Zone then jumped very quickly tot 50%. Not surprising since bonds are a traditional hedge in troubled times such as we have now. Here you get the equity gain as well as the interest But watch to see if Strength lines continue to climb. (Note: interest is paid if you hold the bond for at least one quarter.) |
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Cash in the Bank Portfolio Summary
... Where the real profit is
At February 16, 2010 |
| North of the Blue, JANUARY |
1/31/2010 |
gain 12.50%* woth holdings |
1 month |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average |
1/31/2010 |
loss -3.26% |
1 month |
| S&P: |
1/31/2010 |
loss -3.46% |
1 month |
| NASDQ |
1/31/2010 |
loss -4.27% |
1 month |
| Stock |
Sell Date |
Gain / Loss |
Time Held |
| APA |
1/12/2010 |
+ 6.32% |
3 weeks |
| ATPC |
1/12/2010 |
+ 2.78% |
3 weeks |
| BRY |
1/12/2010 |
- 3.55% |
3 weeks |
| CISG |
1/12/2010 |
- 6.95% |
1 week |
| EEE |
1/12/2010 |
+ 63.83% |
3 weeks |
| HAL |
1/12/2010 |
+ 9.60% |
2 weeks |
| ISSI |
2/5/2010 |
+ 14.55% |
4 days |
| IYT |
1/12/2010 |
+ 14.35% |
2 months |
| KWK |
1/12/2010 |
+ 5.60% |
1 month |
| LL |
1/12/2010 |
+ 6.86% |
1 week |
| OIS |
1/12/2010 |
+ 9.53% |
3 weeks |
| OKSB |
2/12/2010 |
+5.30% |
2 weeks |
| OXY |
1/12/2010 |
+ 1.86% |
3 weeks |
| PL |
1/29/2010 |
- 2.72% |
5 weeks |
| VIP |
1/12/2010 |
+ 7.37% |
1 week |
| WRLS |
2/5/2010 |
+ 5.51% |
1 week | | |
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Sincerely,
Richard Brenneke
North of the Blue Stock Analysis System |
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| Read why then use your North of the Blue tools to check out our Buy-Watch list.
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| Featured Articles |
| Look at our Buy-Watch selections then follow them into our Current Portflio and our Cash in the Bank "Portfolio". The thinking behind our selections is in our Education section at our web site. | |
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