Market Corner
By Lane Steinberger
The extreme volatility of the 2008 stock markets was unnerving to most investors. While we hope for the best, we expect 2009 to be similar. Clients are obviously wondering how we are positioning our portfolios for such an environment.
I want to first start by saying our allocations are based on long term historical trends. Thus, we do not typically try to time the market by picking individual stocks. The futility of this strategy is evidenced on the pages of so many 2008 brokerage statements holding the ticker symbols AIG, LBC (Lehman Brothers), and (CFC) Countrywide Mortgage.
Instead we devise a disciplined investment strategy using a well diversified global portfolio and rebalance to a strategic allocation on a set schedule. It is a strategy that has worked throughout history and will reap rewards over an extended period of time.
However given the current market conditions, I think the likely long-term scenario will be similar to the early 70's, when the market dropped substantially and took several years to recover. Here is an excerpt from my previous newsletter explaining how our strategy, a broad allocation of global stocks and bonds rebalanced on a set schedule, would have fared in such a market:
"In May 1972, if you had $100 invested in the S&P 500, that $100 would have dropped to $50 by the end of 1973. Yet, if you stayed put, your investment would have grown to $193 by the end of 1982. However, if you had the same 80/20 portfolio stated above and rebalanced annually, your investment would have grown to $278, returning over 10% a year."
While there is obviously no guarantee that the next 10 years will be similar to this period, there are similarities to the current economic situation. Regardless, our investment strategy should prove effective in most market environments.
The advisors at Redwood constantly monitor the micro and macro economic trends and may overweight and underweight certain asset classes based on the current market situation. The economic environment has changed dramatically over the course of the year and we have several observations we want to highlight.
Inflation: The Fed and Treasury are expected to spend over a trillion dollars to stimulate the economy over the next year. While I believe in free markets and do not typically like government involvement, I do believe in extreme circumstances like this we need to pump the economy with money to stave off a depression. However, the downside to printing money, as we have seen throughout history, is the threat of inflation. Thus, we want to have assets in our portfolio that will hedge against a hyperinflationary environment, while also offering a sufficient return and diversification benefits. Given this, we have an over-allocation to Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS), in addition to Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), and in some cases commodities.
US Large company stocks versus US small company stocks: Small company stocks have historically offered a higher return over large company stocks. Our typical portfolio has an equal weight toward US small and US large company stocks. However, large company stocks have dramatically underperformed over the past 10 years. From 1998-2008, the S&P 500 lost over 1% a year, while small cap stocks increased over 3 % a year. This leads us to overweight US large cap stocks in our portfolios.
*In our international equity portfolio we take a slightly different approach. In this asset class, large cap foreign stocks tend to be highly correlated with US large cap stocks. Thus, we overweight international small caps and emerging market stocks since they offer better diversification benefits.
Low interest rates: In all our portfolios, we spread risk among domestic and foreign equities, large and small companies, growth and value stocks, etc. This helps to reduce price volatility in the portfolio but we also need to use fixed income (bonds) to help minimize risk. Our expectation for fixed income is to perform well when equities do not. Thus, the overall bond portfolio will always favor high quality short-term instruments. We favor short term bonds over long term one since it is our belief that longer maturity bonds do not provide adequate return for the risk. For example, since 1964, a five-year treasury has provided basically an equivalent return as a 20 year government bond but with almost half the risk.* In addition, with the interbank borrowing rate at 0% and a potential inflationary environment in the years to come, interest rates have nowhere to go but up. Thus, we are maintaining a short maturity bond portfolio to give you some protection you in this environment.
Corporate bonds: Bonds and other credit instruments have suffered along with stocks in this downturn. However, the suffering has been unprecedented and investors have demanded record high rates on debt. Yield spreads on corporate bonds are the highest since the great depression - the Barclays short-term credit index is yielding around 5% more than the treasury index. Given this situation, we will have more corporate bonds than usual in the portfolio.
*January 2005, Dimensional Fund Advisors, Fixed Income Investing, David A. Pleca