BR Logo

Monday Report

From Bonneville Research June 1, 2009
Greetings!
 
May Sales Tax Distributions!
  • Who is down the most?
  • Who is down the least?
  • Why they down?
    • Vernal
    • Park City
    • St George
  • Very interesting map.

_____________________________________________________________________

 
On the Bonneville Research Web Site
 
 
A terrific article for all of us who thought Geography was just memorizing names of capitals.
 
The Geography of Recession
 
_____________________________________________________________________


All the past Monday Reports are also now available!

Thanks,
 
Bob & Jon
SCORECARD: 
 
 
 May 2009 and 2008 Sales Tax Distributions
 
These amounts represent the distribution by the State Tax Commission of the 1% Local Option Sales Tax imposed by local governments on taxable retail sales in their jurisdictions.  50% of the receipts are distributed according population (jurisdictions population % of State Total) and 50% point of sale (sales occurring in individual jurisdiction boundaries).
 
Sales tax revenues generally make up half or more of a jurisdiction's tax revenues with property taxes which are much more stable making up the balance.
 
The largest contributors to sales taxes are Grocery Stores, New Car Dealers, and Discount Stores.
 
Who is Down the Most?
 
Note: These cities and the unincorporated areas of Salt Lake County are the largest in the state
 
 

Rank

City

May-09

May-08

# Change

1

Salt Lake City

$3,610,651

$4,304,446

-$693,795

2

Salt Lake County (Uninc)

$1,650,015

$2,128,613

-$478,598

3

West Valley City

$1,598,810

$2,058,930

-$460,120

4

Sandy

$1,446,510

$1,814,293

-$367,783

5

St. George

$1,122,876

$1,467,137

-$344,261

6

Provo

$1,289,868

$1,610,546

-$320,678

7

Orem

$1,407,269

$1,700,073

-$292,804

8

West Jordan

$1,250,419

$1,475,068

-$224,649

9

Ogden

$1,127,915

$1,349,662

-$221,746

10

Murray

$1,029,292

$1,237,125

-$207,834

11

Layton

$925,655

$1,130,793

-$205,138

12

Park City

$424,940

$628,448

-$203,508

13

Vernal

$335,137

$497,341

-$162,204

14

South Salt Lake

$773,645

$932,621

-$158,976

15

Taylorsville

$637,410

$781,902

-$144,492

16

Bountiful

$491,434

$635,205

-$143,771

17

Logan

$646,395

$788,785

-$142,390

18

 Draper

$593,994

$719,970

-$125,977

19

American Fork

$467,588

$581,128

-$113,541

20

Midvale

$430,986

$536,422

-$105,436

21

Summit County

$407,950

$501,634

-$93,684

22

Cedar City

$393,291

$484,230

-$90,938

23

Pleasant Grove

$301,826

$387,650

-$85,824

24

Cottonwood Heights

$411,981

$496,209

-$84,228

25

Riverdale

$325,856

$402,007

-$76,152

26

Springville

$311,421

$387,518

-$76,098

27

Tooele City

$371,663

$446,646

-$74,983

28

Roy

$349,538

$419,815

-$70,277

29

Spanish Fork

$351,205

$412,076

-$60,870

30

Clearfield

$291,375

$351,494

-$60,119

31

Holladay

$276,480

$334,016

-$57,536



  
Who is Down the Least?
 
Note: These cities are all clustered in southwest Salt Lake County and northeast Utah County where new retail is catching up with housing.
 

Rank

City

May-09

May-08

# Change

% Change

1

Lehi

$498,708

$513,918

-$15,210

-3.0%

2

South Jordan

$632,596

$666,873

-$34,277

-5.1%

3

Riverton

$393,617

$419,640

-$26,023

-6.2%



 Who is Down the Biggest Percentage?
 
Note: Vernal is now in the "bust" cycle of petroleum development.  Park city and St George reflect declines in recreation spending.  Bountiful, West Valley, Pleasant Grove and Sandy likely reflect declines in automotive/truck sales.
 

Rank

City

% Change

1

Vernal

-32.6%

2

Park City

-32.4%

3

St. George

-23.5%

4

Bountiful

-22.6%

5

Salt Lake County (Uninc)

-22.5%

6

West Valley City

-22.3%

7

Pleasant Grove

-22.1%

8

Sandy

-20.3%

9

Brigham City

-20.2%

10

Provo

-19.9%

11

Midvale

-19.7%

12

Springville

-19.6%

13

American Fork

-19.5%

14

Riverdale

-18.9%

15

Cedar City

-18.8%

16

Summit County

-18.7%

17

Taylorsville

-18.5%

18

Layton

-18.1%

19

Logan

-18.1%

20

Draper

-17.5%

21

Kaysville

-17.5%

22

Holladay

-17.2%

23

Orem

-17.2%

24

Clearfield

-17.1%

25

Centerville

-17.1%

26

South Salt Lake

-17.0%

27

Cottonwood Heights

-17.0%

28

Murray

-16.8%

29

Tooele City

-16.8%

30

Roy

-16.7%

31

Ogden

-16.4%

32

Salt Lake City

-16.1%

33

Washington City

-15.4%

34

West Jordan

-15.2%

35

Spanish Fork

-14.8%



Source: Utah State Tax Commission, June 2009
 
http://tax.utah.gov/esu/sales/distribution.html




Interactive May 2008 - 2009 Sales Tax Distribution Map

http://local.commercecrg.com/Mapping/kml/Lawson/JuneMap.htm
 
Thanks to Commerce CRG's Mapping Group for producing this map.
www.commercecrg.com
Economic Notes: 
 
GDP Change - May 2008 - April 2009
US                      -2.6%
France                -3.2%
UK                      -4.1%
EU-27                 -4.4%
Italy                    -5.9%
Germany            -6.9%
Japan                 -9.1%
Russia                 -9.5%
Source: Stratfor 2009
 
Moody's Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence -16.8
Business confidence continues to make its way back from the abyss. Last week's reading was the best since late October. Sentiment remains very poor, but it is clearly improving across the globe. The biggest gain last week was in businesses' assessment of current conditions and a smaller but measurable gain in sales strength. Hiring and investment intentions remain disappointing. Businesses also say they have no pricing power.
 
Bleak state budgets through 2011
State budgets look bad now, but they are set to get worse. The bulk of funds from the federal government's stimulus package will be allocated by 2011, but tax collections aren't likely to be enough to take their place -- even if the economy is recovering.  Even if the national recession ends this year as many predict, state budgets will likely be in the red for the next two years, with budget gaps topping $230 billion as tax collections of sales, personal and corporate income lag, two new reports show.
 
North Dakota's 2008 economic growth tops in US
A new government report says North Dakota had the fastest economic growth of any state last year, led by agriculture and oil.
 
Construction Spending (C30) +0.8%
Construction spending gained ground in April, recording a total that was 0.8% above the revised March level. Total construction spending was still down by 10.7% from April 2008. Private construction spending came in at 1.4% above its March level. The two components of this gain are a 1.8% monthly increase in nonresidential construction spending and-best of all-a 0.7% increase in residential construction spending, the first such increase since August. Public construction spending for April came in 0.6% below March levels. Despite the slight decrease in public construction, the increase in total spending, especially in residential construction, is a very good sign for the struggling U.S. economy.

Personal Income +0.5%
Personal income rose 0.5% in April after falling 0.2% in March (previously reported as -0.3%). Wage income ended a string of five consecutive declines, but this was because a downward adjustment for smaller than normal bonuses was removed. Spending fell 0.1% following an upwardly revised decline of 0.3% in March. Real spending fell 0.1%. The core PCE deflator rose 0.3% following three consecutive 0.2% gains. The top-line deflator rose 0.1%. The saving rate soared to 5.7% as tax payments plunged due to stimulus effects.
 
ISM Manufacturing Index 42.8
The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index increased 2.7 points in May to 42.8. Although manufacturing is contracting, the details of the ISM index were encouraging. New orders were above the expansionary threshold of 50 for the first time since November 2007. Backlogged orders and production also improved over the month. The employment index was relatively unchanged, which is disappointing and suggests manufacturing payrolls will be another major drag on May nonfarm employment. Overall, the gradual improvement in the ISM index over the past several months is consistent with our forecast for a moderation in the decline in manufacturing industrial production and for the economy to resume growing in the second half.

Semiconductor Billings +6.4%
Global semiconductor sales improved once again in April. Global sales rose to $15.64 billion in April on a three-month moving average basis, up from $14.7 billion in March. Although demand remains weak, the worst is likely over for semiconductor sales.

Pending Home Sales +6.7%
The pending home sales index rose 6.7% in April, exceeding expectations for a smaller rise. The rise was the third consecutive month-ago increase in the index, which measures sales contract signings, and strengthens the evidence that existing-home sales are at a bottom. Pending home sales rose in most regions of the nation in April, although the Northeast recorded the sharpest increase.

Chain Store Sales Snapshot -0.6%
Chain store sales fell 0.6% in the week ending May 30, as the ICSC sales index is showing little trend in recent weeks. Sales were 0.6% above their year-ago level, slightly above the prior week's 0.5%, making it the best growth since late November.

Vehicle Sales - AutoData 9.9 mil
Vehicle sales improved in May to 9.9 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis. While this is the best sales pace of the year, sales below 10 million units are still remarkably weak. The run-up to the bankruptcy filing did not dampen sales of GM vehicles, which increased to their best pace of the year (SAAR). However, the same cannot be said for Chrysler. Ford has turned out to be the beneficiary of the turmoil in the domestic vehicle industry as its market share rose to its highest in nearly three years. Toyota and Nissan sales improved as well.
 
Challenger Report - 21.4K
The number of people affected by job cut announcements fell again in May to 111,182, down from 132,590 in April. This is the lowest number since last September and may be another sign that the severity of the recession is diminishing. On a year-ago basis, the total was only 7% higher than a year ago, also indicative of a tapering off in layoff activity.

Oil and Gas Inventories +2.9 MB
Crude oil inventories rose by 2.9 million barrels during the week ending May 29, according to the Energy Information Administration, more than expected. Gasoline inventories fell by 200,000 barrels, and distillate inventories rose by 1.6 million barrels. Refinery operating capacity rose to 86.3% from 85.1%. Total domestic petroleum demand plummeted. This report will cause crude oil prices to fall.

Factory Orders (M3) + 0.7%
Factory orders increased a smaller than expected 0.7% in April. Nondurable goods orders fell 0.1%, compared with the previous month's -1.6%. Meanwhile, durable goods orders rose 1.7%, their largest gain since the recession began in December 2007. Shipments of manufactured goods edged 0.2% lower, while unfilled orders fell 1.2%, their fifth consecutive decline in excess of 1%. The downturn in manufacturing is intense but is not worsening.

MBA Mortgage Applications Survey -24.1%
In the week ending May 29, a leap in mortgage rates rattled the MBA Market index. Dragged by a 24.1% decline in the refinance index, the composite index fell 16.2% to 658.7. The refinance index, highly sensitive to any large contract rate swings, fell to 2,953.6. The 44-basis point increase in fixed rate mortgages had little effect on purchases. The purchase index increased 4.3% to 267.7.

Source: Economy.com
Public Policy Initiatives
 
VA - Kaine Announces Grants to Department of Conservation and Recreation. Gov. Tim Kaine joined representatives from the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation and Environmental Protection Agency to announce federal grants awarded to the Virginia Department of Conservation and Recreation. The grants will fund projects that focus on innovative techniques and technologies to address nonpoint source pollution and environmental education related to the Chesapeake Bay watershed. "As residents of both the Commonwealth and the Bay's watershed, we have a stake in the health of these waters as well as a duty to protect them," Kaine said. http://www.allamericanpatriots.com/conservation- 
 
WA - Gregoire Announces Funds for Energy, New Jobs. Gov.
Chris Gregoire announced that the U. S. Department of Energy has awarded more than $2.2 billion in American Recovery and Reinvestment Act funds for Washington State energy recovery. Most of the investment will accelerate clean up efforts at the Hanford Nuclear Reservation in Richland. "This is great news for the state of Washington," said Gregoire. "This investment will support and create hundreds of jobs, it accelerates the cleanup of the most dangerous contaminated site in the nation, and it moves us toward a clean-energy economy for the 21st century." http://www.allamericanpatriots.com/recovery-funds

BONNEVILLE RESEARCH
 
Bonneville Research is a regional consulting firm focused on consulting services to state and local governments including economic analysis for real estate development, public-policy analysis, tourism and economic development. Since its founding in 1976, Bonneville Research has completed assignments throughout the intermountain west yielding unmatched experience in high quality public policy analysis and economic analysis.

In broad terms, Bonneville Research assists state and local governments find workable solutions and to establish quality and sustainable public policy.  We often work with private developers and public agencies in assessing the future economics and outcomes of real estate projects, economic development plans and opportunities for public/private partnerships. Bonneville Research offers a diverse array of economic analysis and tools to answer complex problems.
  • Market and Financial Feasibility Analysis
  • Concept and Development Programming
  • Operational Analysis and Budgeting
  • Service Delivery and Cost Effectiveness Analysis
  • Business Organization and Marketing Strategies
  • Services Repositioning and Disposition
  • Economic Development Plans
  • Demand Assessment for Public and Cultural Facilities
  • Public-Private Partnerships
  • Economic and Fiscal Impact
  • Grant-writing/Fundraising

Fusing talents of a multi-disciplined staff, the firm's experience has concentrated in four interrelated fields:

  • Economic development and community planning
  • Law enforcement, fire and public safety
  • Recreation, tourism and leisure time
  • Management, benchmarking and best practice services
Bonneville Research
170 South Main Street, Suite # 775
Salt Lake City, Utah 84101
801-364-5300
BobSpring@BonnevilleResearch.com

In This Issue
Map
Public Policy Initiatives
Which states will recover first?
Car Dealerships Closing
Recent Bonneville Research Projects:
Which states will be first to recover?
 
If you want to be in the right place when the recovery starts!
 
First to Recover: Colorado, Idaho, Oregon, Texas or Washington.
 
The recession didn't start at the same time in every state, and it won't end at the same time either. A new forecast from Moody's Economy.com predicts that jobs growth will return first in those five states, starting in the last quarter of this year. Four of those states benefit from strong high-tech industries, and the fifth, Texas, has a strong base of energy industries.
 
A second wave of jobs growth, in the first quarter of 2010, is predicted in seven states: Alabama, Georgia, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota and South Dakota.
 
Third to Recover: The next wave, in the second quarter of 2010, is expected in seven states: Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Tennessee and Wyoming.
 
Last to Recover: That leaves 31 states and the District of Columbia waiting until the third quarter of 2010 for jobs to start growing again, including Utah, Nevada, Montana, Arizona and California.
 
Note: Utah entered recession September 2008.  Employment is expected to rebound in the third quarter of 2010.
 
Source: Economy.com
 
Car Dealership Closings Could Hurt Commercial Real Estate Values With Excess Space Supply

As the U.S.'s auto manufacturers continue to restructure and cut costs, car dealership closings are spiking and generating a glut of excess space that might have a prolonged negative impact on the commercial real estate market, investment sales brokers say. There isn't nearly enough demand from other car brands to occupy all the dealerships about to be shed by Detroit's Big Three, and the skyrocketing vacancies in almost every sector of commercial real estate make it unlikely that most sites will be redeveloped in the near future. Rather, brokers expect that dealerships in the best locations in urban markets will be snatched up relatively quickly, while the vast majority of sites will languish and sit empty on highways around the country for several years.

Properties on high traffic intersections in major urban markets, including New York, Chicago, Los Angeles and Seattle, might get the most interest. For example, real estate services firm Colliers International recently received five offers within three weeks for a dealership site in South Florida, all of them close to the asking price. But markets that experienced run-ups in housing values and excess commercial real estate development, such as Phoenix, Salt Lake City, Reno, Houston and Atlanta, might have a tough time, adds.
 
Full Story  http://retailtrafficmag.com/news/car-dealership-closings-real-estate-0602/
 
Source: Retail Traffic Online  
 
This Weeks Leads:
 
Quick Links
Monday Report Archive

Visit the Monday Report Archive
Join Our Mailing List
Recent Bonneville Research Projects:
 
Heber City Annexation
 
Nestled in Utah's Wasatch Mountains and adjacent to Park City, Heber City is the economic hub of rapidly growing Wasatch County.  Bonneville Research recently concluded an effort for a major commercial and housing developer on a strategy to develop a large 60 acre parcel adjacent to the central core of Heber City.  Bonneville Research evaluated the current and future growth trends in the Heber Retail Center general market area, considering the current and future retail, commercial and residential development potential in the market area.  Of particular importance to Heber City public officials was the detailed analysis of the net economic benefits to Heber City as a result of the proposed retail, commercial and residential development options at the 60 acre site.  The issues considered included a net present value analysis of the economic impacts and 15 year projections of:
          Incremental Property Taxes
          Incremental Sales Taxes
          Impact and other Development Fees

Bonneville Research also evaluated the net incremental service delivery costs to Heber City as a result of the proposed retail, commercial and residential development options at the site, including:
          Core municipal services to include police, fire, public works, planning, streets and recreation.
          Administrative and support services to include Courts, general administration and capital investments in land and buildings.
 
The Bonneville Research report was adopted unanimously by both the Heber City Planning Commission and City Council.
 
Contact: Wade Williams, The Boyer Company, (801) 521-4781
Grants: 
 
Remediate Lead-Based Paint!
Lead-Based Paint Hazard Control Grant Program and Lead Hazard Reduction Demonstration
Grant Program
POSTED: 5/29/2009
FUNDING SOURCE: HUD
ELIGIBILITY: Public agencies
$ AVAILABLE: $117,000,000
GRANTS AVAILABLE: N.A.
MAX GRANT SIZE: $3,070,000
DEADLINE: 7/20/09
CONTACT INFORMATION: http://www.hud.gov/offices/lead/09NOFA/FY2009_Lead_Combo_NOFA.pdf
DESCRIPTION: Funding for rehabilitation of housing to remove or remediate lead-based paint hazards in privately owned housing for rental or owner occupied units.

------------------------------------------------------

Help Families of Children with Disabilities!
Projects of National Significance: Family Support Training
POSTED: 5/26/2009
FUNDING SOURCE: ACF
ELIGIBILITY: Nonprofits
$ AVAILABLE: $2,000,000
GRANTS AVAILABLE: 10
MAX GRANT SIZE: $200,000
DEADLINE: 6/22/09 (LOI); 7/21/09 (final)
CONTACT INFORMATION: http://www.acf.hhs.gov/grants/open/HHS-2009-ACF-ADD-DN-0094.html
DESCRIPTION: Grants to provide and promote leadership training by and for families of children with disabilities.

------------------------------------------------------

Reduce Crime!
National Initiatives: Preventing Crime
POSTED: 5/28/2009
FUNDING SOURCE: DOJ
ELIGIBILITY: Nonprofit and public agencies, including police departments
$ AVAILABLE: N.A.
GRANTS AVAILABLE: N.A.
MAX GRANT SIZE: $800,000
DEADLINE: 6/22/09
CONTACT INFORMATION: http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/BJA/grant/09NationalPreventingCrimeSol.pdf
DESCRIPTION: Grants for project concepts designed to prevent crime through police and neighborhood efforts.

------------------------------------------------------

Help for Cops!
National Initiatives: Enhancing Law Enforcement

POSTED: 5/28/2009
FUNDING SOURCE: DOJ
ELIGIBILITY: Nonprofit and public agencies, including police departments
$ AVAILABLE: N.A.
GRANTS AVAILABLE: N.A.
MAX GRANT SIZE: $1,780,000
DEADLINE: 6/25/09
CONTACT INFORMATION: http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/BJA/grant/09NationalLawEnforcementSol.pdf
DESCRIPTION: Grants to improve a wide array of police functioning.

------------------------------------------------------
Firestation Construction Grants: 
 
On Friday, May 29, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) released a competitive grant solicitation for fire station construction grants. Funding for this grant program was provided by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA). All non-federal fire departments and state and local governments that fund/operate fire departments are eligible to apply for this funding.  Applications will be accepted between June 8 and July 10.
 
Funding will be awarded for two purposes:
 
1.       Construction of new fire stations (funds must support firefighting operations and therefore awards will not support non-fire response or business); and/or
2.       Renovation of fire stations to enhance response capacity or firefighter safety.
 
Construction of any facilities other than fire stations (e.g., structures for training or emergency operations centers) is not eligible for funding.
 
Eligible Expenses
 
          Building construction
          Environmental assessment
          Building site preparation, including demolition, if necessary
          Design, planning, and engineering expenses incurred after award
          Expenses necessary to comply with the most current edition of NFPA1500
          Expenses necessary to comply with the locally adopted building, fire, plumbing, mechanical and electrical codes.
          Sprinklers or other life safety and fire protection systems
          Vehicle exhaust extraction systems
          Decontamination areas
          Space for training (up to 600 square feet)
          Space for gender-segregated sleeping
          Gender-segregated restrooms
          Space for exercise equipment
          Kitchens
          Kitchen appliances
          Dining/eating area
          ADA compliance
          Gear racks, storage and shelving for gear/equipment
          Internet cabling
          Energy conservation systems (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design - LEED™)
          Renewable energy for HVAC and power systems
          Other expenses detailed in the grant guidance
 
Ineligible Expenses
 
          Land acquisition
          Cost overruns
          Fire station staffing
          Pre-award costs (including but not limited to design, planning, and engineering expenses incurred prior to award)
          Grant writing fees
          Space for public use (ballrooms, community meetings, fund raising)
          Furnishings (including office/training equipment)
          Exercise equipment
          Firefighting equipment
          Personal protective equipment
          Washers/extractors
          Apparatus
          Vehicle mounted exhaust extraction systems
          Landscaping
          Security systems
          Decorative items (curtains, wall hangings, etc.)
          Projects that duplicate any other Federal awards
          Demolition costs not related to the funded project
 
ARRA directs FEMA to limit the funding for any one grant to $15.0 million per award. In order to maximize the benefits of the stimulus funding, FEMA will also impose a $5.0 million funding limitation on each project within an application. There is no limit to the number of projects that can be included in an application as long as no one project exceeds the $5.0 million limit and the total request does not exceed the $15.0 million limit. In instances where an applicant submits a request with multiple projects, each project will be considered in all levels of the evaluation of the application - preliminary review, the panel review, and the subsequent technical reviews.
 
To read the full grant solicitation and access the application go to http://www.fema.gov/pdf/government/grant/arra/fy09_arra_fsc_guidance.pdf