Monday Report
Utah Economic Snapshot April 20th, 2009


Interactive Map - City Retail Sales - Change Jan 2008 - Jan 2009





  • Global Business Confidence -25.9%
  • Global business confidence remains very weak. Survey responses regarding sales, hiring and equipment investment are notably poor. Businesses also report little pricing power. It is encouraging that businesses are becoming steadily less negative about the economy's prospects later this year. Sentiment has also improved a bit outside the U.S since mid-March.
  • Treasury International Capital Flows +$22 B
  • TIC flows in February turned positive, reflecting renewed foreign appetite for U.S. financial assets. The desire for a safe haven was an important motivator. Foreign investors increased their holdings of U.S. long-term securities; net foreign purchases rose to $22 billion in February, in contrast to the prior month, when foreign investors reduced their holdings and net foreign purchases fell to -$36.8 billion.
  • Treasury Budget +300%
  • The unified budget deficit for March was $192 billion. Through the first six months of fiscal 2009 the budget deficit was $957 billion, more than three times greater than at the same point in fiscal 2008. The recession, the stimulus package, and the response to the financial crisis, including purchases of stock as part of the TARP, have greatly added to the deficit this fiscal year.
  • Industrial Production -1.5%
  • Industrial production fell 1.5% in March, matching the intensity of the decline seen in the prior month. Manufacturing output fell 1.7%, confirming a continued severe slide, despite the recent firming in consumer spending. The gap between the growth of production and sales is evidence of an inventory adjustment that is focused in the consumer sector, especially autos. The early April regional manufacturing data hint at a slower rate of contraction in industrial production beginning this quarter as this inventory adjustment winds down.
  • Business Inventories (MTIS) - 1.3%
  • Total business inventories decreased 1.3% in February, in line with expectations. Retail inventories were the only new data in this report, falling 1.2%. Inventories have been falling recently as businesses try to liquidate to bring supply in line with demand. This is showing up in the I/S ratio, which declined to 1.43 from 1.45 previously.
  • Producer Price Index -1.2%
  • Producer prices for finished goods fell sharply in March (-1.2%), primarily because of falling prices for food and energy products. When food and energy prices are excluded, core inflation remained flat, as expected. Although core prices for finished goods have not begun to fall, core prices among intermediate products fell for the sixth month in a row.
  • Jobless Claims -53k
  • In a surprise move, initial jobless claims fell 53,000 to 610,000 for the week ending April 11. Continuing claims, though, continued to rise, gaining 172,000 to 6.022 million for the week ending April 4, setting another new high. The large drop in initial claims may have been prompted by Good Friday. Other signs point to continued weakening in the labor market.
  • NAHB Housing Market Index +55%
  • Consistent with the recent increase in home sales, the NAHB Housing Market Index went from 9 in March to 14 this month, a 55% increase, though still close to the market bottom. All three of the HMI's components increased in April, as did all four regional HMIs. Although one month of data is not enough to announce a market rally, the index at least indicates that deterioration in homebuilding and sales took a breather in March and April.
  • New Residential Construction (C20) -2%
  • Housing starts came in well below expectations in March, at 510,000 annualized units, 11% down from February. Census also revised downward February's reading by 2%. On the face of it, the weak report splashes cold water on hopes that the housing downturn is near its end; however, the decline in starts is due to a drop in the volatile multifamily sector. Single-family starts are flat from February.
  • MBA Mortgage Applications Survey +4.7%
  • In the week ending April 10, after five weeks of consecutive growth, the MBA market index decreased 11% to 1,113.2. Both the purchase and refinance indices fared similarly. The purchase index decreased 11.3% to finish at 264.1. Meanwhile, the refinance index ended at 6,071.7, falling 10.9% over the previous week. Contract rates decreased slightly and remain near historic lows.
  • Consumer Price Index -0.1%
  • The top-line consumer price index decelerated in March, declining by 0.1% from February after seasonal adjustment. The top-line CPI is now down by 0.4% from March 2008 after seasonal adjustment. The core CPI increased by 0.2% from February and is up by 1.8% compared to one year ago. As expected, the downward shift in top-line CPI inflation is due to falling energy prices; in March the energy CPI fell by 3% compared with February.
  • Retail Sales (MARTS) -1.1%
  • Retail sales unexpectedly plunged 1.1% in March. Excluding autos, sales fell 0.9%. However, February results were revised higher. Total sales rose 0.3% (originally down 0.1%), and sales excluding autos rose 1% (originally up 0.7%). Declines in March were widespread, led by electronics and appliance stores, gas stations, and apparel stores. Gains were limited to grocery and drug stores. Core sales fell 0.8%.
  • Chain Store Sales +0.8%
  • Chain store sales rose 0.8% in the week ending April 11, the third consecutive gain. However, the year- ago decline increased marginally to 0.4%. Sales remain poor, still below year-ago levels, but significantly better than they were early in the year.
  • Oil and Gas Inventories +5.6 mb
  • Crude oil inventories surged by 5.6 million barrels during the week ending April 10, according to the Energy Information Administration, far exceeding expectations. Gasoline inventories fell by 900,000 barrels, and distillate inventories fell by 1.2 million barrels. Refinery operating capacity fell to 80.4% from 81.8%, falling well below consensus estimates. Total domestic petroleum demand fell. This report should send oil prices lower.
  • Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report+21 B cf
  • Working gas in underground storage rose by 21 billion cubic feet during the week ending April 10. The consensus estimate was for an increase of 20 bcf.

Dutch John Consulting Proposals being accepted

  • Notice of Invitation to submit a proposal for Planning and Development service for the Dutch John area. Daggett County announces its intention to accept proposals for consultant services for the planning and development of the Dutch John area. Proposals are due by 5:00 p.m. on Monday, June 8, 2009. An informational meeting will be held at the Dutch John Conference Hall on Friday, May 1, 2009 at 2:00 p.m.
  • For more information contact the Daggett County Commission Assistant at PO Box 219; Manila, UT 84046; (435) 784-3218 ext. 134 or by e-mail to .

2009 Monday Report Survey

Thank you to the 222 who participated:

Final Results Summary:

  • 85% Say they read the Monday Report Always or Frequently
  • 68.4% Say they want to receive the Monday Report Weekly
  • 73.8% Say they read all or most of the Monday Report
  • 66.6% Say they are very satisfied with the Monday Report
  • 22.5% Say they are somewhat satisfied with the Monday Report
  • 92.2% Say they find the Monday Report information very or somewhat relevant

See results: 7e2hfpqngfsc86z7x/results

Public Policy Initiatives

  • NJ - Corzine Works to Stimulate the Economy. New Jersey regulators are expected to approve $1 billion in accelerated energy infrastructure projects. The state Board of Public Utilities is taking action earlier than normal at the request of Gov. Jon Corzine. The governor sees the spending as a way to create jobs and stimulate the economy.
  • CO - Ritter Welcomes Opening of Solar Manufacturing Plant. Colorado solar panel manufacturer Abound Solar Inc. opened its first, full- scale manufacturing plant. At capacity, the plant is expected to produce enough panels to generate about 200 megawatts of power per year. Gov. Bill Ritter offered his congratulations to the company, "As we see local renewable energy companies expand operations and create jobs, we know that the New Energy Economy is leading Colorado forward, and will help Colorado to have a quick and strong recovery."
  • NM - Richardson Announces Recovery Funds for Veterans Projects. Gov. Bill Richardson announced that Veterans' Administration projects in New Mexico will receive more than $5 million dollars in federal recovery funding. A total of $5,076,251 will go towards construction and repair projects at the National Cemeteries in Ft. Bayard and Santa Fe, and at the Raymond G. Murphy VA Medical Center in Albuquerque. "Not only will this money help save hundreds of jobs here in the state, it will also create hundreds more as we build new projects or make badly-needed repairs to important Veterans' facilities," said Governor Richardson. "These important projects will go a long way towards improving access and service for the 180,000 veterans living in New Mexico." http://www.5-million-federal-recovery-funding-vete
  • NJ - Corzine Works to Expand Health Care Services for Children. Gov. Jon S. Corzine was joined by Human Services Commissioner Jennifer Velez to announce a new tax-time partnership to identify uninsured children who may be eligible for NJ FamilyCare. "Families across the nation continue to grapple daily with the effects of skyrocketing healthcare costs," Corzine said. "This new partnership demonstrates New Jersey's strong commitment to ensuring that our children have access to the healthcare services they deserve. By using this shorter, simpler application, New Jersey now has the opportunity to identify and cover even more of the uninsured. I am confident that we will emerge as a national leader using the Express Lane eligibility enrollment option."
  • NM - Richardson Praises Green Filmmaking. Gov. Bill Richardson has commended Warner Bros. Pictures for its green initiatives on the film, "Observe and Report," shot in Albuquerque. Richardson says "Observe and Report" marks the company's first dedicated green filmmaking project. Warner Bros. measured the carbon footprint generated during production, which totaled 719 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent and the company bought renewable energy credits and verified emission reduction credits to create a carbon neutral production.
  • WI - Doyle Announces Recovery Funds for Public Safety. Gov. Jim Doyle announced a $30 million investment of Recovery Act funds to protect public safety, avoid cuts to police service and reduce future corrections costs. Byrne Justice Assistance Grant funds will be used to target youthful offenders, fight drug abuse and trafficking, and reduce the number of offenders entering the corrections system. Doyle also announced that Waukesha County will use $140,708 of Recovery Act funding to purchase equipment critical to officer and community safety. "Public safety is a top priority and an essential element of economic recovery," said Governor Doyle. "Through my budget and investments of Recovery Act funds, Wisconsin will continue to be one of the safest places to raise a family and do business." http://www.investment-public-safety

Current Bonneville Research Projects:

Bonneville Research is currently completing a "Blighting Analysis Survey" with Ogden City as part of a comprehensive redevelopment strategy for the future of their important 276 acre East Central Study Area.

  • Redevelopment is one of the most effective ways to breathe new life into deteriorated areas whose conditions act as a barrier to new investment by private enterprise.
  • Redevelopment enables communities to grow inward, not just outward.
  • Redevelopment enhances and expands local businesses, renovates declining housing stock and improves public infrastructure systems and facilities.
  • Redevelopment helps encourage new housing and businesses to locate within already developed areas.
  • Redevelopment tools: Urban Renewal/Economic Development/Community Development
    • Ability to assemble land for development
    • Ability to utilize tax increment and issue bonds
    • Ability to invest in infrastructure to "lure" private enterprise
    • Ability to create affordable housing opportunities
    • Establish a wide variety of partnerships to ensure "buy-in" and plan implementation.
  • Ogden anticipates using tax increment and developer incentive tools to enhance and redevelop key retail/economic centers in the East Central Study Area.


  • State Revenues
  • Local Government Revenues
  • Employment Losses
  • Who is gaining jobs?
  • Who is losing jobs?
  • Regular Features
    • Grants and Stimulus Opportunities
    • Public Policy Initiatives
    • Economic Notes
  • Cool map showing Jan 08 - Jan 09 Retail Sales!

  • Utah Economic Snapshot - First Nine Months FY2009 YTD

    Utah State Government

    • Sales and Use Taxes (Gen Gov't, Higher Education) -10.4% (-$860.48 M)
    • Individual Income Taxes (Public Education) -9.1% (-$150.31 M)
    • Individual Income Tax Withholding (Public Education) -10.6% (-$174.71 M)
    • Corporate Franchise Taxes (Gen Gov't) -19.7% ($44.76 M)
    • Motor Fuel Taxes (Transportation) -6.4% (-$11.93 M)
    • Severance Taxes (Gen Gov't) +53.8% (+36.19 M)
    • Education/USF Total-10.3% (-$194.31 M)

    Source: Utah State Tax Commission, TC-23 4/14/09

    Local Government

    • Sales and Use Taxes (includes food) -7.1% (- $25.43 M)
    • Transient Room Tax -13.6% (-$2.93 M)
    • Tourism, Recreation, Cultural, Convention -4.9% (-$1.76 M)
    • County Option Sales & Use Tax -6.0% (-$5.33 M)
    • County Option Zoo, Arts & Parks Tax -13.4% (- $3.25 M)
    • Municipal Telecommunications License -6.6% (-$2.27 M)
    • Emergency Services Phone Charge -6.5% (-$1.36 M)
    • Public Transit -9.7% (-$14.87 M)

    Source: Utah State Tax Commission, TC-23 4/14/09

    Utah Labor Market Indicators - March 2009 (February, January, December, November, October) 2008

    • Employment Growth: -2.6% (-2.1%, -1.6%, - 1.9%, -0.9%, -0.2%)
    • Employment Peaked September 2008: 1,261,050
    • Unemployment Rate:
      • March 5.2%
      • February 5.1%
      • January 4.6%
      • December 4.3%
      • November 3.7%
      • October 3.5%
      • September 3.5%
      • August 3.7%
      • July 3.5%
      • June 3.3%
      • May 3.2%
      • April 3.1%
      • March 3.3%
      • February 3.0%
      • January 2008 3.0%
      • December 2007 2.9%
      • November2007 2.8%

      Source: Utah Dept of Workforce Services, 4/16/09

    Who are gaining jobs? February to March 2009 By County

    • Grand + 625 (+16.1%)
    • Kane + 159 (+5.8%)
    • Wayne + 520 (+5.4%)
    • Daggett + 15 (+4.2%)
    • San Juan + 132 (+3.3%)
    • Garfield + 62 (+3.3%)
    • Beaver + 51 (+2.5%)
    • Box Elder + 450 (+2.3%)
    • Juab + 65 (+2.3%)
    • Rich + 12 (+1.9%)
    • Millard + 67 (+1.7%)
    • Uintah + 127 (+0.8%)
    • Tooele + 108 (+0.7%)
    • Iron + 113 (+0.6%)
    • Carbon + 60 (+0.6%)
    • Sanpete + 41 (+0.5%)
    • Emery + 19 (+0.5%)
    • Weber + 444 (+0.5%)
    • Davis + 422 (+0.4%)
    • Sevier + 24 (+0.3%)
    • Duchesne + 13 (+0.1%)

    Source: Utah Dept of Workforce Services, 4/16/09

    Who are losing jobs? February to March 2009 By County

    • Summit -641 (-2.5%)
    • Piute - 5 (-1.5%)
    • Wasatch - 29 (-0.5%)
    • Salt Lake - 2,850 (-0.5%)
    • Utah - 703 (-0.4%)
    • Morgan - 5 (-0.3%)
    • Cache - 100 (-0.2%)
    • Washington - 70 (-0.1%)

    Source: Utah Dept of Workforce Services, 4/16/09

  • Interactive Map - City Retail Sales - Change Jan 2008 - Jan 2009
  • Thanks to Matt Liapis, Mapping Director, Commerce CRG for this Map.

    Source: Utah Tax Commission, 4.09

    Click to see Interactive Map!
  • Applications Now Being Accepted for Assistance to Firefighters Grants

    The Department of Homeland Security/ Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is now accepting applications for the Assistance to Firefighters Grant Program. This is not the AFG money included in the stimulus for fire station renovation and construction, but the customary annual AFG solicitation. The goal of the program is to enhance response capabilities and to more effectively protect the health and safety of the public from fire hazards. This is the single biggest opportunity from the federal government to support fire safety on an annual basis. FEMA will start accepting applications on April 15th. The application period closes at 5pm eastern standard time on Wednesday, May 20, 2009.

    Source: FEMA, April 2009

    USDA Rural Development Recovery Act Funding Single Family Housing Guaranteed Loan Program

    • Alaska $43,339,500
    • Arizona $98,454,000
    • Colorado $81,451,500
    • Idaho $81,233,306
    • Montana $66,892,976
    • Nevada $22,383,600
    • New Mexico $80,981,340
    • Utah $78,033,116
    • Wyoming $23,710,380

    Source: USDA, April 2009

    • Save-A-Lot
    • Save-A-Lot operates 1,180 locations nationwide.
    • The supermarkets, carrying a limited assortment of grocery items, occupy spaces of 14,000 sq.ft. to 16,000 sq.ft. in strip and value centers in addition to downtown/urban and freestanding locations.
    • Plans call for 60 openings throughout the existing market during the coming 18 months.
    • Typical leases run five years.
    • A vanilla shell and specific improvements are required. Preferred cotenants include value retailers.
    • Preferred demographics include a population of 50,000 within a three-mile radius earning an average household income of $40,000.
    • Major competitors include Aldi.
    • A land area of two acres is required for freestanding locations.
    • The company is franchising.
    • For more information, contact
      • Fred Rudolph,
      • Save-A-Lot,
      • 100 Corporate Office Drive,
      • Earth City, MO 63045
    • Little Caesars Pizza
    • Little Caesar Enterprises, Inc. trades as Little Caesars Pizza at locations nationwide.
    • The pizzerias occupy spaces of 1,200 sq.ft. to 1,400 sq.ft. in endcaps with a drive-thru, freestanding locations and strip centers.
    • Growth opportunities are sought throughout the existing market during the coming 18 months.
    • Typical leases run five years with options.
    • The company prefers to locate near supermarkets, video stores and pharmacies.
    • Preferred demographics include a population of 25,000 within three miles earning $50,000 as the average household income.
    • The company is franchising.
    • For more information, contact
      • Mike Atwell,
      • Little Caesar Enterprises, Inc.,
      • 2211 Woodward Avenue, Detroit, MI 48201-3400
    • Priscilla of Boston
    • David's Bridal, Inc. trades as Priscilla of Boston at 13 locations throughout CA, CO, GA, IL, MA, MN, NJ, PA, TX and VA.
    • The specialty boutiques, featuring top designer brands for wedding dresses and formal wear, occupy spaces of 5,500 sq.ft. in lifestyle and specialty centers.
    • Growth opportunities are sought throughout major metro markets nationwide during the coming 18 months.
    • Typical leases run 10 years.
    • Preferred demographics include a population of 500,000 within 15 miles earning $75,000 as the average household income.
    • For more information, contact
      • Michael Mirsky,
      • David's Bridal, Inc.,
      • 1001 Washington Street,
      • Conshohocken, PA 19428
    • David's Bridal
    • David's Bridal, Inc. trades as David's Bridal at 300 locations nationwide.
    • The stores, offering bridal and bridesmaid gowns, formal wear, in addition to invitations and gifts, occupy spaces of 5,500 sq.ft. and 8,000 sq.ft. to 12,000 sq.ft. in freestanding locations and lifestyle, power, specialty and strip centers.
    • Growth opportunities are sought throughout the existing market during the coming 18 months.
    • Typical leases run 10 years.
    • A vanilla shell and specific improvements are required.
    • Preferred demographics include a population of 600,000 within 20 miles earning $45,000 as the average household income.
    • For more information, contact
      • Michael Mirsky,
      • David's Bridal, Inc.,
      • 1001 Washington Street,
      • Conshohocken, PA 19428
    • Windsor
    • Windsor operates 48 locations throughout AZ, CA, CT, MI, NJ, NV, NY and TX.
    • The stores, offering junior apparel and accessories, occupy spaces of 4,000 sq.ft. to 5,000 sq.ft. in super regional centers.
    • Growth opportunities are sought throughout major metro markets nationwide during the coming 18 months, with representation by Zorehkey & Associates.
    • Typical leases run 12 years.
    • A vanilla shell and specific improvements are required. Preferred cotenants include Macy's, Nordstrom and junior and fashion apparel retailers.
    • Preferred demographics include a population of 200,000 within a four-mile radius earning an average household income of $60,000.
    • Major competitors include bebe and Ann Taylor Loft.
    • For more information, contact
      • Ed Zorehkey,
      • Zorehkey & Associates,
      • 30021 Tomas Street, Suite 300,
      • Rancho Santa Margarita, CA 92688


    Bonneville Research is a regional consulting firm focused on professional services to state and local governments and private companies seeking winning strategies and achieving impressive results.

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