Monday Report
Job Gains/Losses - County Rankings - Small Business Stimulus $ March 30th, 2009


SCORECARD

Small Business Stimulus $
 

ECONOMIC NOTES:
  • Global Business Confidence -29.0%
  • Global businesses remain remarkably pessimistic. European business confidence has never been as dark and is near record lows everywhere else. Businesses say that sales fell sharply last week to a new record low, and pricing power continues to evaporate as close to one-third of businesses say they are cutting prices for their goods and services. Sentiment is bleak across all industries, particularly among manufacturing and business service firms.
  • GDP-6.34%
  • The contraction in real GDP in the fourth quarter was revised slightly downward in the final report, to 6.3% at an annualized rate, from 6.2% previously. This matched the consensus. There were downward revisions to inventories, service exports and nonresidential construction; somewhat offsetting these were a downward revision to service imports, boosting growth, and an upward revision to goods exports. Corporate profits fell $250 billion at an annualized rate in the fourth quarter, by far the biggest drop ever. The economy remains in the midst of the deepest downturn since the Great Depression and will continue to contract in the near term.
  • Durable Goods (Advance) +3.4%
  • Durable goods orders rose in February for the first time in seven months, up 3.4%. Excluding transportation, orders were up 3.9%, and new orders for core capital goods rose 6.6% on the strength of machinery orders. Shipments continued to fall, ticking down by half a percentage point, and core capital goods shipments fell 2.5%. Some improvement in new orders was expected, though the overall increase was unexpected.
  • State Personal Income -0.2%
  • Personal income fell 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2008 in the U.S. following an increase of the same magnitude in the third quarter. This was the first decline in nominal personal income since the first quarter of 1994. Income fell in 41 states, and declines were the largest in the goods-producing sector as well as in wholesale and retail trade. Personal income slowed to 3.9% for all of 2008 compared with growth of 6% in 2007. Every state except Alaska experienced slower income growth last year.
  • Jobless Claims +8k
  • Initial jobless claims increased by 8,000 to 652,000 for the week ending March 21, in line with expectations for a gain. Continuing claims increased by 122,000 to 5.56 million for the week ending March 14, setting yet another new high. Claims have been rising consistently thus far this year, and these latest data points add further evidence of considerable labor market strain.
  • FHFA Purchase-Only House Price Index +1.7%
  • The FHFA purchase-only monthly price index increased by 1.7% from December to January, led by significant increases in the East North Central, South Atlantic, New England, and Middle Atlantic census divisions, with only the Pacific division showing a monthly decline. However, the volume of sales in January was relatively low even when considering only the conforming loan segment of the housing market. Although the January data are good news, they should not be interpreted as the start of a housing market recovery. The monthly price index for the U.S. is still down by 6.3% since January 2008.
  • Existing Home Sales +5.1%
  • February's home sales report brings a bit of good news to the housing market. Existing-home sales surprised on the upside with a 5.1% m/m increase, pulling sales up to 4.72 million annualized units. February's gain was the strongest increase since July 2003. Further, the gain was broad-based across Census Bureau regions. The descent in house prices also improved, with a decline of 15.5% y/y, compared with a downwardly revised decline of 17% in January. The months of inventory were flat at 9.7, however, due to an increase in the number of homes available for sale. Finally, even with the strong increase, February's sales pace was still the third slowest in recent memory.
  • New Home Sales (C25) +4.7%
  • Sales of new homes came in surprisingly strong in February. A 4.7% increase brought sales up to 337,000 annualized units. Months of inventory slipped slightly but remained high at more than 12. The median sales price was down by 18%. Conditions appear to be improving, but one must be cautious when interpreting the monthly sales data.
  • MBA Mortgage Applications Survey +32.2%
  • In the week ending March 13, the MBA market index increased 32.2% to 1,159.4, the third week of a double percentage-point increase. Similarly, both parts of the composite also increased. The refinance index increased 41.5% this week, finishing at 6,363.2. The purchase index ended at 267.8, up 4.2%.
  • Chain Store Sales -0.4%
  • Chain store sales fell 0.4% in the week ending March 21, the third decline in the last four weeks. However, the year-ago decline held steady at 1.4%. Sales remain poor, steadily declining, but perhaps not as bad as they could be considering that Easter is in April this year.
  • Oil and Gas Inventories +356.6 mb
  • Crude oil inventories rose by 3.3 million barrels during the week ending March 20, according to the Energy Information Administration, above expectations of a 1.1 million barrel buildup. Gasoline inventories fell by 1.1 million barrels, more than the consensus estimate of a 650,000 barrel decline. Distillate inventories fell by 1.6 million barrels, slightly more than expected. Refinery operating capacity fell slightly to 82% from 82.1%. Total domestic petroleum demand rose. This mixed report will cause oil prices to fall.
  • Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report+3 B cf
  • Working gas in underground storage increased by 3 billion cubic feet during the week ending March 20. The consensus estimate was for a decline of 9 billion cubic feet.

Public Policy Initiatives

  • CO - Ritter Announces Third Round of Recovery Projects. Gov. Bill Ritter has certified the third round of Colorado transportation projects that will be paid for with federal recovery money. The state is to receive about $400 million for highway and bridge projects and another $103 million for transit projects. So far, Ritter has certified more than 80 road and transit projects valued at $415 million. http://www.denverpost.com/technology/ci_11961015
  • MD - O'Malley Announces $15 Million FAA Grant for BWI. Gov. Martin O'Malley says BWI Thurgood Marshall Airport has received a $15 million grant from the Federal Aviation Administration's Airport Improvement Program to reconstruct two aprons at the airport. The project will include markings, airport signs and lights, drainage improvements and the installation of a new deicing collection system, and is projected to employ some 200 people. http://www.washingtonpost.com/2602754.html
  • MA - Patrick Sees Help for Colleges. Students at the University of Massachusetts preparing to pay an additional $1,500 in fees next year could see that amount reduced dramatically under a plan by Gov. Deval L. Patrick to use federal recovery money to offset cuts to higher education funding. Patrick's plan will use $162 million in federal recovery money to aid state colleges and universities, including $82 million for the University of Massachusetts. The money should allow UMass trustees to make good on their promise to students to rebate much of the fee increase if recovery money became available. http://www.berkshireeagle.com/1982916
  • NJ - Corzine Announces Recovery Funds for Community Health Centers. Two New Jersey community health centers will receive $2.6 million in federal recovery funds over the next two years to provide health care to low-income medically underserved residents. The funding is being provided by the Health Resources Services Administration, a branch of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, as part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. Gov. Jon Corzine said: "New Jersey's healthcare safety net must remain strong during this economic crisis. It is reassuring to know that New Jersey has a true partner in health care in Washington." http://atlanticville.gmnews.com/page/009.html
  • ME - Baldacci Announces First Recovery Funded Project. Maine's first federal recovery funded project will put $31.5 million worth of pavement, pavers, truck drivers, equipment operators, diesel fuel and wooden stakes into action this spring and summer, repaving the northbound lanes of Interstate 295 from Topsham to Gardiner. Gov. Baldacci said estimates from the Federal Highway Administration and the state's experience rehabilitating the southbound I-295 lanes last year indicate the project could create about 840 jobs, directly and indirectly. "This project will put Mainers back to work," Baldacci said, "and we all know that a good job is the best social program. The economic recovery package is already starting to put people back to work here in Maine and around the country." http://morningsentinel.mainetoday.html
  • DE - Markell Lays Out Energy Plan. Delaware's quasi-public energy-efficiency program, already getting millions from a regional carbon-tax program, could also share in $24 million in federal recovery funds directed to the state energy program. Delaware's letter, certified by Gov. Jack Markell, said the funds would be used for energy-efficiency improvements for homes and businesses, including energy audits and installation of efficient heating and cooling systems; replenishment of the Green Energy Fund, a state tax-credit program that provides cash incentives to install renewable-energy systems like solar panels; and energy-efficiency upgrades for state facilities. http://www.delawareonline.com/334/1003
  • WI - Doyle Kicks Off Infrastructure Construction. Gov. Jim Doyle kicked off construction on the Interstate 94 north-south freeway project that will modernize and expand the corridor to eight lanes. About $1.9 billion in improvements are planned for the freeway that runs from the Illinois- Wisconsin state border to Milwaukee. The project is expected to create more than 2,300 jobs and be complete in 2016. "Improvements to the North-South will create thousands of jobs and will support Wisconsin's overall economy by accommodating business and recreational travelers for years to come," Doyle said. "The state and federal investments being made to Wisconsin's transportation system mean we will emerge from the national economic situation stronger, more modern, with an improved infrastructure that will help Wisconsin succeed in the worldwide economy." http://www.bizjournals.com/milwaukee/daily15.html
  • KY - Beshear Welcomes Statewide Health Information Progress. The Louisville Health Information Exchange has selected 3M Health Information Systems to provide the electronic health record banking system and interoperability solution to enable health information exchange across the greater Louisville area. 3M and its partner, InterComponentWare, Inc. will design, build, and pilot an integrated health information network that will offer free health record banking services to all 1.2 million citizens in the greater Louisville community. "LouHIE will work closely with Kentucky state officials working on statewide health information exchange," said Gov. Steve Beshear. "The state is excited about the opportunity to collaborate with LouHIE, 3M, ICW, and the Louisville area leaders in creating Kentucky's e- health research laboratory for the nation." http://www.businesswire.com/Lang=en

THIS WEEKS LEADS:

  • Port of Subs
  • Port of Subs, Inc. trades as Port of Subs at 140 locations throughout AZ, CA, ID, NV, OR, UT and WA.
  • The sandwich shops occupy spaces of 1,600 sq.ft. to 1,800 sq.ft. in freestanding locations and strip centers.
  • Growth opportunities are sough throughout the existing markets during the coming 18 months.
  • Typical leases run five years with options.
  • Preferred demographics include a population of 15,000 within one mile earning $40,000 as the average household income.
  • For more information, contact
    • Director of Real Estate,
    • Port of Subs, Inc.,
    • 5365 Mae Anne Avenue, Suite A-29,
    • Reno, NV 89523
  • Bahama Breeze
  • Darden Restaurants, Inc. trades as Bahama Breeze at 23 locations nationwide.
  • The restaurants, offering Caribbean cuisine, occupy spaces of 8,000 sq.ft. to 8,600 sq.ft. in endcaps, freestanding locations and power and strip centers.
  • Plans call for one to two openings throughout major metropolitan markets nationwide during the coming 18 months.
  • For more information, contact
    • John Doshna,
    • Darden Restaurants, Inc.,
    • 5900 Lake Ellenor Drive,
    • Orlando, FL 32809
Greetings!

  • Job Gains/Losses - County Rankings
    • Who is gaining jobs?
    • Who is losing jobs?
    • How you rank?
  • Small Business Stimulus $
  • Public Policy Initiatives
  • Economic Notes
  • This Weeks Leads
  • SCORECARD
    		•

    Utah Community Development Block Grant Stimulus Allocations

    GranteeAllocation Amounts
    SALT LAKE CITY$1,098,281
    SALT LAKE COUNTY$657,866
    PROVO$457,954
    OGDEN$310,838
    WEST VALLEY$250,336
    OREM$164,094
    LOGAN$158,804
    WEST JORDAN$132,778
    ST GEORGE$128,777
    SANDY CITY$106,502
    TAYLORSVILLE$99,705
    LAYTON$91,212
    CLEARFIELD$62,148
    UT NONENTITLEMENT$1,776,702
  • Source: American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009: CDBG Formula Allocations, 3/24/09

    Utah Labor Market Indicators February -2009 (January, December, November, October) 2008

    • Employment Growth: -2.1% (-1.6%, -1.9%, - 0.9%, -0.2%)
    • Employment Peaked September 2008: 1,261,050
    • Unemployment Rate:
      • February 5.1%
      • January 4.6%
      • December 4.3%
      • November 3.7%
      • October 3.5%
      • September 3.5%
      • August 3.7%
      • July 3.5%
      • June 3.3%
      • May 3.2%
      • April 3.1%
      • March 3.3%
      • February 3.0%
      • January 2008 3.0%
      • December 2007 2.9%
      • November2007 2.8%

      Source: Utah Dept of Workforce Services, 3/24/09

    Who is Gaining Jobs - February 2009

    Ranked by Change

    CountyJanuary FebruaryChange% Change
    State Total1,224,7031,221,606 -3,097-0.3%
    Weber93,69293,914 2220.2%
    Grand3,755 3,948 1935.1%
    Summit27,028 27,1741460.5%
    Box Elder19,71919,847 1280.6%
    Uintah15,44215,561 1190.8%
    Tooele14,963 15,0811180.8%
    Iron16,384 16,492 1080.7%
    Washington49,960 50,049890.2%
    Carbon9,99910,066 670.7%
    San Juan3,8923,959 67 1.7%
    Sevier7,890 7,939490.6%
    Duchesne8,718 8,765470.5%
    Garfield1,976 2,019 432.2%
    Juab3,048 3,084 361.2%
    Kane2,724 2,756 321.2%
    Beaver1,998 2,029 311.6%
    Sanpete7,5997,619 200.3%
    Millard3,805 3,821 160.4%
    Daggett334 348 144.2%
    Piute329336 72.1%
    Morgan1,707 1,713 60.4%
    Wasatch5,8705,871 10.0%
    Emery3,623 3,623 00.0%
  • Source: Utah Dept of Workforce Services, 3/24/09

    Who is Losing Jobs - February 2009

    Ranked by Change

    CountyJanuary FebruaryChange% Change
    State Total1,224,7031,221,606 -3,097-0.3%
    Salt Lake588,452585,538 -2,914-0.5%
    Utah180,984 179,958-1,026-0.6%
    Cache50,300 49,700-600-1.2%
    Davis98,93798,828 -109-0.1%
    Rich623620 -3-0.5%
    Wayne951950 -1-0.1%
  • Source: Utah Dept of Workforce Services, 3/24/09
  • Small Business Stimulus $
    		•

    Small businesses represent 97% of all Utah employers and create 87% of the states net new jobs.

    A "small" business generally means a privately held enterprise with up to 19 employees, or a sole proprietorship.

    Utah entrepreneurs are the creators, risk takers, inventors, and leaders of our economy.

    These individuals and businesses demonstrate why Utah really is a great place to start and grow a successful business.

    SBA Stimulus Bill - Quick Small Business Impact

    The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act contains a package of loan fee reductions, higher guarantees, new SBA programs, secondary market incentives, and enhancements to current SBA programs that will help unlock credit markets and begin economic recovery for the nation's small business sector.

    The tax incentives and credit stimulus elements of the Recovery Act will truly help small business owners affected by the credit crunch, and will provide financing opportunities to help them create new jobs in their communities.

    The bill provides $730 million to SBA and makes changes to the agency's lending and investment programs so that they can reach more small businesses that need help.

    The funding includes:

    • $375 million for temporary fee reductions or eliminations on SBA loans and increased SBA guaranteed shares, up to 90 percent for certain loans
    • $255 million for a new loan program to help small businesses meet existing debt payments
    • $30 million for expanding SBA's Microloan program, enough to finance up to $50 million in new lending and $24 million in technical assistance grants to microlenders
    • $20 million for technology systems to streamline SBA's lending and oversight processes
    • $15 million for expanding SBA's Surety Bond Guarantee program
    • $25 million for staffing up to meet demands for new programs
    • $10 million for the Office of Inspector General

    The bill also authorizes refinancing for certain SBA loans so borrowers can expand their businesses on favorable terms, and expands leverage capability for Small Business Investment Companies.

    The stimulus bill takes a comprehensive approach and attacks several problems facing small businesses at once by reducing fees, guaranteeing a greater share of certain loans, expanding capacity in the Microloan program, providing new loans to help small businesses keep their doors open through economic hardship, as well as new mechanisms to help unfreeze the secondary markets for SBA-backed loans.

    Declines in SBA lending volume last year, which are continuing in FY 2009, reflect problems in the broader credit markets, and present hurdles to small businesses that are seeking credit in the current economy. The financial crisis has created a variety of conditions that impact small businesses, including a lack of liquidity in the banking system, a reluctance of many lenders to extend new loans, tightened credit standards, weaker finances at small businesses, and uncertainty about taking on new debt on the part of many entrepreneurs.

    The Recovery Act addresses small businesses' lending problems, and addresses key investment and contracting issues. The bill helps Small Business Investment Companies better leverage investment capital to reach more small companies. The bill also increases the current contract limit for SBA's Surety Bond Guarantee program, which will help small businesses compete for contracts.

    90 Percent Guarantee

    The bill allows SBA to raise its loan guarantee from the current levels to as much as 90 percent for some loans. At present, SBA can guarantee loans up to 85 percent on loans up to $150,000, and up to 75 percent on loans greater than $150,000. The 50 percent guarantee on SBA Express loans would remain unchanged. Increasing the SBA guarantee percentage will encourage lenders to extend more capital to small businesses by increasing the share covered by an SBA guarantee.

    Continued Next Week With:

    • Business Stabilization Loans
    • Microloans
    • Refinancing
    • Secondary Market Expansion
    • Investment Program
    • Surety Bonds

    Source: SBA, April 2009

  • SOLVING PROBLEMS - CREATING OPPORTUNITIES
    		•
    BONNEVILLE RESEARCH

    Bonneville Research is a regional consulting firm focused on consulting services to state and local governments and private companies seeking winning strategies and achieving impressive results.

    Services include economic analysis for real estate development, public-policy analysis, tourism and economic development

    Since its founding in 1976, Bonneville Research has completed assignments throughout the Intermountain West yielding unmatched experience in high quality public policy analysis and economic analysis.

    Helping Clients Succeed

    Our services include:

    • Financial Analysis
    • Business License Studies
    • Impact Fee analysis
    • Urban Renewal & Redevelopment Analysis and Budgets
    • Strategy and Policy Analysis
    • Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis
    • Statistical and Survey Research
    • Public Sector Mission Effectiveness

    Each of our studies is tailored to address the unique needs of our clients and their communities.

    Successful client work requires a superior team of outstanding people working fluidly together.

    Bonneville Research is the one firm with the experience and expertise to help businesses, governments and nonprofit organizations solve their toughest problems.

    We work to help clients achieve enduring results and improve the communities in which we live.

    If we can help you, please call or email us at:

    • Bob
      • 801-364-5300
      • BobSpring@BonnevilleResearch.com
    • Jon
      • 801-746-5706
      • JonSpring@BonnevilleResearch.com

    Bonneville Research

    :: 801-364-5300

    Email Marketing by