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        | ECONOMIC NOTES:
 
        
         
Global Business Confidence -26%
A pall continues to hang over global business 
confidence as it has since sentiment collapsed last 
fall. Confidence remains near a record low. Views 
regarding sales, hiring and investment all remain 
extraordinarily poor. Indeed, there are very few positive 
responses to any of the questions across all of the 
respondents. Most worrisome is the recent collapse 
in pricing power; a record over one-third of 
respondents now say they are cutting prices for their 
goods and services. Confidence is uniformly weak 
across all industries and regions of the globe.
 GDP -6.2%
There was a major downward revision to GDP for 
the fourth quarter of 2008. Real GDP fell 6.2% at an 
annualized rate in the fourth quarter, according to 
Friday's release; in the advance release in January, 
the reported decline had been 3.8%. This is the 
biggest contraction in real GDP since the first quarter 
of 1982. The downward revision was much larger than 
expected. Most components contributed to the 
downward revision, especially lower investment in 
inventories, lower exports, and weaker consumer 
spending on nondurable goods. The enormous 
contraction in the fourth quarter is a further sign of how 
serious the problems in the U.S. economy are.
 Personal Income +0.4%
Personal income unexpectedly rose 0.4% in 
January, a number distorted by several special 
factors, after falling 0.2% in December. Wage income 
fell for the third consecutive month, driven by large job 
losses. Spending rose 0.6%, reversing only part of 
December's 1% decline, although this is not a sign of 
a resurgence of spending. Real spending rose 0.4%. 
The core PCE deflator rose 0.1% after being 
unchanged for three straight months. The top-line 
deflator rose 0.2% after declining for three straight 
months. The saving rate rose to 5% as inflation 
adjustments reduced taxes. The rate was revised 
upward for prior months, along with wage income 
from the inclusion of third quarter QCEW data in the 
report.
 Semiconductor Billings -11.9%
Global semiconductor sales slumped to $15.3 
billion in January from $17.4 billion in the prior month 
on a three-month moving average basis. A deepening 
global recession and very tight credit conditions 
continue to weaken demand in consumer, 
manufacturing and automotive sectors for 
semiconductors. 
 Agricultural Prices -8.6%
The preliminary All Farm Products Index of Prices 
Received by Farmers declined 8.6% in February. The 
crop index is down 7.5% and the livestock index 
decreased 4.4%. The index of prices paid for means 
of production is down 1.1%.
 Bankruptcy Filings +32%
With the recession intensifying, both business and 
personal bankruptcy filings grew rapidly in the fourth 
quarter. The number of personal filings remains low, 
however, still impacted by reforms enacted in late 
2005. Filings were 32% above last year but remained 
more than 20% below the fourth quarter of 2004, 
before reform legislation and in a better credit 
environment. Business bankruptcies are high by any 
measure, with filings up 62% from last year to the 
highest level since 1997
 Productivity and Costs
There was a significant downward revision to 
productivity in the fourth quarter and upward revisions 
to unit labor costs in both the third and fourth quarters. 
Stronger unit labor costs can be traced to a faster 
pace of economic contraction and higher labor 
compensation to a lesser extent. The report is bad 
news with respect to corporate profits.
 Factory Orders (M3) -1.9%
Factory orders fell 1.9% in January, the sixth 
consecutive monthly decline. The decline was smaller 
than expected due to an increase in nondurable 
goods orders, which was the result of smaller 
nominal price declines over the month for petroleum 
products. Durable goods orders, which were first 
published last week, received an upward revision, 
cutting January's decline to 4.5%. Shipments fell for 
the sixth consecutive month, also the longest streak of 
declines since the series was first published.
 Employment Situation - 651K
February was a disastrous month for the nation's 
labor market. Payroll employment declined by 651,000 
while losses increased to 655,000 in January and 
681,000 in December. Thus, payroll employment 
declined by nearly 2 million jobs in just three months. 
Such a plunge was last seen in the mid-1940s when 
wartime production was winding down. The 
unemployment rate increased by 0.5 percentage 
point, to 8.1%. 
 Monster Employment Index -26%
Online recruitment ads placed by U.S. employers 
during February rose modestly from a month ago. The 
Monster Employment Index rose 4 points between 
January and February, ending four straight months of 
declines. Of the 20 industries tracked by the index, all 
but three reported month-ago increases in job 
availability. The index, however, was down 26% on a 
year-ago basis, identical to the annual rate of decline 
recorded in January, which suggests that the labor 
market endured yet another month of steep job 
losses.
 Mass Layoffs + 158%
Employers announced job cuts that will hit 
186,350 workers in February. This is down from the 
January total of 241,749 but is still indicative of a 
sharply contracting labor market. Last month's figure 
was 158% higher than the total for February 2008. The 
auto industry led all others, by far, in the number of 
announced cuts, followed by industrial goods, retail, 
financial services and electronics. 
 Jobless Claims -31K
Initial claims for jobless benefits decreased 
31,000 to 639,000 for the week ending February 28, 
exceeding expectations for a milder decline. 
Continuing claims decreased as well, dropping 
14,000 to 5.106 million for the week ending February 
21. Although both indicators dropped in the week, they 
still remain very high and appear to be generally 
heading higher. Layoffs are rising, and it is difficult for 
the unemployed to find new work.
 Construction Spending (C30) -3.3 %
Construction spending for January fell by 3.3% 
from the revised December total and is now down by 
9.1% from January 2008. Private construction 
spending for January fell by 3.7% compared with 
December, led by a 4.3% decline in nonresidential 
construction spending, though residential 
construction spending also fell by 2.9% from 
December to January. Public construction spending 
fell 2.3% from December to January. As expected, 
construction spending for January continued to 
deteriorate because of the economy's worsening 
conditions, but the spending decline was worse than 
forecast. 
 Pending Home Sales - 7.7%
Contracts signed for sales of existing homes 
plummeted from December to January, indicating that 
sales of existing homes are likely to decline in the first 
quarter. The pending home sales index fell 7.7% in 
January to 80.4, a much larger decline than had been 
expected. Further, the index value for December was 
revised downward slightly. On a year-ago basis, the 
national index is down 6.4%.
 MBA Mortgage Applications Survey -12.6%
In the week ending February 27, the MBA market 
index fell 12.6% to 649.7. Both parts of the composite 
also declined. The purchase index fell 5.6% to 236.4, 
while the refinance index fell 15.3% to 3,063.4. These 
are relatively large swings considering contract rates 
held steady; the 30-year fixed rate increased 7 basis 
points, while the one-year adjustable rate fell 1 basis 
point.
 MBA Delinquency Rates +89bp
Mortgage delinquency rates set a new all-time 
record in the fourth quarter, surging 89 basis points to 
7.88%. The performance of mortgage loans has 
deteriorated significantly as house prices plummeted 
and the unemployment rate soared. There was a 
slight increase in the rate of new foreclosures. On a 
not seasonally adjusted basis, 1.08% of mortgages 
entered foreclosure, up 1 basis point from the prior 
quarter. Foreclosure moratoriums prevented the 
number of foreclosures from being higher.
 Consumer Credit (G19) +$1.8b
After declining over the past three months, 
consumer credit balances increased unexpectedly in 
January. Total credit expanded by $1.8 billion to a total 
of $2.564 trillion. Revolving and nonrevolving lines of 
credit contributed equally to this increase. 
 Vehicle Sales -40% 
The weak economy combined with constrained 
access to credit pushed vehicle sales down another 
notch in February. Vehicle sales fell to a seasonally 
adjusted annualized rate of 9.1 million units. This was 
down from 9.5 million units in January and more than 
40% below the year-ago pace. Domestic and 
international manufacturers alike are selling 
significantly fewer vehicles, and sales are falling to 
both consumers and fleets.
 Chain Store Sales -0.1%
Chain store sales improved in February with the 
majority of retailers reporting better than expected 
same-store sales. In aggregate, sales fell 0.1% for 
the month, according to the ICSC, the fifth consecutive 
decline, but better than January's 1.6% decline and 
expectations. Excluding Wal-Mart, sales fell 4.3%, an 
improvement from January's 4.6% drop but less so. 
Gasoline prices again were a significant drag on 
sales for the month, undermining sales at warehouse 
clubs. Luxury sales continued to tumble as 
consumers remain intensely focused on necessities 
as the overall spending picture remains weak.
 Oil and Gas Inventories -700kb
Crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell by 700,000 
barrels during the week ending February 27, 
according to the Energy Information Administration, 
below expectations of a 1 million barrel buildup. 
Gasoline inventories rose by 200,000 barrels. 
Distillate inventories rose by 1.7 million barrels. 
Refinery operating capacity rose to 83.1% from 81.4%. 
Total domestic petroleum demand rose. This is a 
bullish report. 
 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report -
102bvf
Working gas in underground storage decreased 
by 102 billion cubic feet during the week ending 
February 27. The consensus estimate was for a 
decline of 100 billion cubic feet.
 
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        |  | Greetings! 
             Public Policy Initiatives
Car Dealership Closures Accelerate
Economic NotesGrants
This Weeks LeadsUtah EmploymentWhere the jobs are?How do you rank?
Who is doing better?Who is being hit the 
hardest?
 
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        | SCORECARD |  
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About 20,400 more Utahns were out of work in 
January compared to the same month last year, with 
the historically high number of claims for 
unemployment benefits labeled "stunning." The 
state's unemployment rate also climbed to 4.6 percent 
in January, up from an adjusted December rate of 4.1 
percent, the Utah Department of Workforce Services 
said. In January of 2008, the jobless rate for the state 
was 3.2 percent.  
             Utah Employment - County January 2007 - 
2009Ranked by % 
Change
 | County | Jan 2007 | Jan 2008 | Jan 2009 | # Change 08-09 | % Change 08-
09 | 
|---|
 | Duchesne | 6,989 | 7,828 | 8,760 | 932 | 11.9% |  | 
|---|
 | Uintah | 13,647 | 14,143 | 15,514 | 1,371 | 9.7% |  | 
|---|
 | Carbon | 8,947 | 9,365 | 10,046 | 681 | 7.3% |  | 
|---|
 | Garfield | 1,803 | 1,858 | 1,985 | 127 | 6.8% |  | 
|---|
 | Summit | 24,407 | 26,447 | 27,155 | 708 | 2.7% |  | 
|---|
 | Beaver | 1,931 | 1,977 | 2,007 | 30 | 1.5% |  | 
|---|
 | Kane | 2,756 | 2,703 | 2,737 | 34 | 1.3% |  | 
|---|
 | Wayne | 914 | 945 | 956 | 11 | 1.2% |  | 
|---|
 | Grand | 3,653 | 3,742 | 3,773 | 31 | 0.8% |  | 
|---|
 | Rich | 602 | 623 | 626 | 3 | 0.5% |  | 
|---|
 | Sanpete | 7,366 | 7,644 | 7,635 | -9 | -0.1% |  | 
|---|
 | Sevier | 7,723 | 7,975 | 7,927 | -48 | -0.6% |  | 
|---|
 | San 
Juan | 3,896 | 3,941 | 3,910 | -31 | -0.8% |  | 
|---|
 | Piute | 313 | 334 | 331 | -3 | -0.9% |  | 
|---|
 | Tooele | 15,064 | 15,174 | 15,034 | -140 | -0.9% |  | 
|---|
 | Millard | 3,908 | 3,875 | 3,823 | -52 | -1.3% |  | 
|---|
 | Weber | 93,588 | 95,485 | 94,092 | -1,393 | -1.5% |  | 
|---|
 | State 
Total | 1,219,288 | 1,244,564 | 1,224,120 | -20,444 | -1.6% |  | 
|---|
 | Davis | 100,378 | 101,059 | 99,346 | -1,713 | -1.7% |  | 
|---|
 | Utah | 182,042 | 184,695 | 181,405 | -3,290 | -1.8% |  | 
|---|
 | Cache | 48,797 | 51,157 | 50,200 | -957 | -1.9% |  | 
|---|
 | Salt 
Lake | 586,290 | 598,499 | 586,087 | -12,412 | -2.1% | 
|---|
 | Box 
Elder | 19,492 | 20,284 | 19,812 | -472 | -2.3% |  | 
|---|
 | Iron | 17,013 | 16,928 | 16,462 | -466 | -2.8% |  | 
|---|
 | Washington | 51,334 | 52,004 | 49,845 | -2,159 | -4.2% |  | 
|---|
 | Juab | 3,728 | 3,204 | 3,062 | -142 | -4.4% |  | 
|---|
 | Emery | 3,838 | 3,864 | 3,640 | -224 | -5.8% |  | 
|---|
 | Morgan | 1,865 | 1,861 | 1,715 | -146 | -7.8% |  | 
|---|
 | Wasatch | 6,672 | 6,553 | 5,898 | -655 | -10.0% |  | 
|---|
 | Daggett | 332 | 397 | 336 | -61 | -15.4% |  | 
|---|
 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services, 
March 2009
 
 
             Utah Labor Market Indicators - January 2009 
(December, November, October) 2008
 
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        | PUBLIC POLICY INITIATIVES |  
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NH - Lynch Announces New Online Resource 
to Help Citizens Facing Mortgage Problems.  Gov. 
John Lynch announced a new online resource aimed 
at helping consumers address potential mortgage 
problems. "With the national recession and ongoing 
mortgage crisis, many New Hampshire families are 
seeing their dreams of home ownership put at risk. In 
these difficult economic times, many New Hampshire 
families are struggling to keep their homes and are 
looking for help. This new website will help connect 
families with the resources they need," Gov. Lynch 
said.
http://www.allamericanpatriots.com/citizens-facing 
 Midwest Governors Move on Plan to Reduce 
Carbon Emissions.  Wisconsin is among a group 
of Midwestern states poised to unveil a regional plan 
to limit carbon dioxide emissions that many scientists 
say contribute to global warming, Gov. Jim Doyle said. 
Doyle said an announcement could come this fall, but 
a lot depends on what happens with efforts in 
Congress to establish a national energy plan that 
calls for reducing greenhouse gases and spurring the 
development of clean energy. The regional accord, 
which includes Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, 
Minnesota, Wisconsin and Manitoba Province in 
Canada, calls for a cap-and-trade system to curb 
carbon dioxide emissions by 15 to 25 percent by 2020 
and 60 to 80 percent by 2050. Doyle said Midwestern 
governors prefer a national cap-and-trade strategy, but 
they believe their states should take the initiative and 
they are doing could help inform lawmakers as they 
write energy legislation. 
http://www.htrnews.com903040472/1984/MAN04 
 MD - O'Malley Calls For 'Rational 
Regulation.' Gov. Martin O'Malley proposed to give 
the state government the power to order construction 
of new energy plants, reversing a decade of 
deregulation of electric utilities. "Deregulation has 
failed us," O'Malley said. "Rather than relying on 
market forces that have failed to deliver for us, we'll put 
those important decisions about securing our energy 
future into the hands of the Public Service 
Commission." Under the plan, power companies 
would only be allowed to recoup their costs when 
building a plant, plus a reasonable rate of return, 
rather than charge consumers what the market would 
bear. http://www.dcexaminer.com/03_03-
40575037.html
 NJ - Corzine Launches Green Jobs Program. 
Gov. Jon S. Corzine helped launch a training 
program that will create hundreds of so-called green-
collar jobs for high school graduates. The governor 
unveiled the $2 million training program at Isles, a 
community development organization in the city that 
has created a Center for Energy and Environmental 
Training, which expects to train several hundred 
people this year, and roll out its training program 
throughout the state. It's expected that thousands of 
jobs, which will involve completing energy audits and 
retrofitting buildings to save energy, among others, 
will be created in the state during the next few years, 
as part of Corzine's goal to reduce greenhouse gas 
emissions by 20 percent by 2020. 
http://www.njbiz.com31335302.016&aID2=77431 
 OH - Strickland Supports Solar Panels at 
Guard 
Sites.  The federal stimulus package will help to 
fund installation of solar panels at three Ohio National 
Guard facilities, including in Toledo. In Ohio, 22 
facilities will be funded with the focus chiefly on 
roofing and energy efficiency projects. "Not only will we 
extend the lives of the facilities, but we will reduce our 
operating expenses and be more environmentally 
friendly," Gov. Ted Strickland said. 
http://toledoblade.03903030385/-1/NEWS24
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        | THIS WEEKS LEADS: |  
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 Tuesday Morning 
 Tuesday Morning, Inc. trades as Tuesday Morning 
at 854 locations nationwide.  The stores, offering 
rugs, lamps, books, luggage, china, toys, bed and 
bath accessories, holiday decorations and 
accessories, garden accessories, stationery, 
women's accessories, dinnerware and fine art and 
frames, occupy spaces of 8,000 sq.ft. in 
entertainment, lifestyle, power, strip, tourist and value 
centers, malls, freestanding locations and 
urban/downtown locations.  Growth opportunities 
are sought throughout the existing market during the 
coming 18 months.  Typical leases run five years 
with two, five-year options.  A vanilla shell is 
required.  Preferred demographics include a 
population of 100,000 within a five-mile radius.
                For more information, contact 
Melissa Dean,  Tuesday Morning, Inc.,  
6250 LBJ Freeway,  Dallas, TX 75240;  Web 
site: www.tuesdaymorning.com
  Sleep Number By Select Comfort 
 Select Comfort Retail Corp. trades as Sleep 
Number By Select Comfort at 465 locations 
nationwide.  The stores, offering air controlled, 
adjustable-firmness mattresses, occupy spaces of 
1,600 sq.ft. to 2,500 sq.ft. in entertainment, lifestyle 
and specialty centers, as well as malls.  Growth 
opportunities are sought throughout the existing 
market during the coming 18 months.  Typical 
leases run five years.  Preferred cotenants include 
Williams Sonoma, Pottery Barn, Eddie Bauer, Coach, 
Brookstone, Banana Republic, J. Crew, The Limited 
Too, The Cheesecake Factory and P.F. Chang's. 
Preferred demographics include a population of 
150,000 within a five-mile radius earning $50,000 as 
the average household income.
                For more information, contact 
John Key,  Select Comfort Retail Corp.,  9800 
59th Avenue North,  Minneapolis, MN 55442
 
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        | Car Dealership Closures Accelerate |  
        |  | 
             
 
While General Motors and Chrysler Corp. remain 
on financial life support and demand for cars and 
trucks wanes, the number of shuttered dealerships is 
piling up. Since 2005, 1,795 dealerships have closed, 
says  the National Automobile Dealers Association 
(NADA).
This year, the industry projects a net of 900 
closings, dropping the total number of dealerships to 
19,075. The closures provide an opportunity for 
retailers, office developers and hotel operators to buy 
prime sites rarely available for sale.
 "Most of those properties are valuable and there 
will be rather strong interest in them," says Chuck 
Lanyard, president of the Goldstein Group, based in 
Fair Lawn, N.J. "As bad as things are, this economy is 
creating a lot of good opportunities for people as well."
For instance, a year ago Rutherford, N.J.-based 
developer Eden Property Co. and partner Landmark 
Realty bought a 1.7-acre site in New Jersey from Ford 
Motor Co. In June, the site will re-open as a 28,350 sq. 
ft. shopping center.
With car sales slumping by double digits on a year-
over-year basis at each of Detroit's Big Three - 
General Motors, Ford and Chrysler - a new wave of 
dealership closures appears inevitable. Last year, 
vehicle sales in the U.S. declined by 18% to 13.2 
million. In 2007, there were 16.1 million sales, 
according to NADA.
To maintain sales at the 2007 level, when each 
dealership sold an average of 750 cars, the industry 
would need to shutter at least 3,800 locations, reports 
Southfield, Mich.-based Grant Thornton. General 
Motors has announced closure of up to 2,146 
dealerships by 2014. Ford and Chrysler are expected 
to follow suit.
The automotive real estate services group of 
Miami-based Colliers Abood Wood-Fay is working on 
25 dealership dispositions and expects that figure to 
rise by 50% over the next few months, says Michael 
Fay, president. The team of Nelson Kramer, a vice 
president for CB Richard Ellis in Atlanta, has sold 
three dealerships in the past month and has listings 
for another eight.
How the dealership properties will be disposed of 
will vary. The assets can either be sold or leased, 
depending on the owner's preference.
Sites in "auto malls," which consolidate several 
dealer franchises, might be harder to sell, as their 
zoning use is often limited to auto sales by 
municipalities dependent on sales tax revenues, says 
Cheryl Bloodworth, a vice president with brokerage 
Grubb & Ellis in Newport Beach, Calif. Since few 
manufacturers are expanding, they could be vacant a 
while.
Stand-alone dealerships, which often boast 
locations on heavily trafficked thoroughfares with good 
frontage, easy vehicle access and flexible zoning, are 
highly desirable for retailers, says Scott Schafer, a 
managing director with Cushman & Wakefield in 
Buffalo, N.Y. Medical office buildings, hotels and 
storage facilities might also find the properties 
attractive.
Older dealership sites that contain car service 
facilities may suffer from environmental problems 
related to fuel spillage, which can take hundreds of 
thousands of dollars to clean up, Fay notes. However, 
many dealers carry environmental insurance and offer 
to pay for remediation.
With real estate investment at a standstill, 
dealership sites have been slow to move, says 
Schafer. In the fourth quarter of 2008, there were 73 
land sales nationwide, a 72% decrease from the 
fourth quarter of 2007.
Dealerships boast some major advantages and 
many will eventually sell, says Kramer. "Historically, 
they've sold at a premium over other [property] types." 
 Source: NREI, March 2009
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        | SOLVING PROBLEMS - CREATING OPPORTUNITIES |  
        |  | 
        
        	| 
                BONNEVILLE RESEARCH
Bonneville Research is a regional consulting firm 
focused on consulting services to state and local 
governments and private companies seeking winning 
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 Services include economic analysis for 
real 
estate development, public-policy analysis, 
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 Helping Clients Succeed
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 Helping West Valley City Bonneville 
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 Bob801-364-5300 
BobSpring@BonnevilleResearch.com
Jon801-746-5706
JonSpring@BonnevilleResearch.com 
 
 
            
            
            
            
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