ECONOMIC NOTES:
- Global Business Confidence
- There is no respite from the dark pessimism
overhanging global businesses. Sentiment regarding
sales, hiring and investment all remain extraordinarily
poor. Most worrisome is the recent collapse in pricing
power; a record over one-third of respondents now
say they are cutting prices for their goods and
services. Confidence is weakest among those who
work in government, but it is bad across all industries.
If there is a distinction, it is that Asian businesses are
a bit less negative than businesses everywhere
else.
- The Conference Board Consumer
Confidence -12.4
- The Conference Board index of consumer
confidence tumbled to another record low in February.
The index fell to 25 from January's 37.4 (downwardly
revised from 37.7). The expectations component led
the decline, falling to 27.5 from 42.5 (previously 43).
The present situation component fell to 21.2 from 29.7
(previously 29.9). Assessments of current labor
market conditions deteriorated significantly, providing
more evidence of large, ongoing job losses.
- Durable Goods (Advance) -5.2%
- New orders for manufactured durable goods fell
5.2% in January following a 4.6% decline in
December. January marks the sixth consecutive
month of decline. Core capital goods orders fell 5.4%
following a larger drop in December. Orders excluding
transportation fell 2.5%, as expected. Shipments fell
3.7%, and core goods shipments were down 6.6%.
- Business Employment Dynamics
- Gross labor market flows through mid-2008
confirm the weakness in the labor market that began
in early 2008. Gross job losses escalated in the
second quarter of 2008, but gross job gains also
ticked higher. Nonetheless, job gains remained very
low in historic perspective. Expanding establishments
were the source of the modest improvement in hiring,
while job creation at new companies was flat. Gross
labor market flows through mid-2008 confirm the
weakness in the labor market that began in early
2008. Gross job losses escalated in the second
quarter of 2008, but gross job gains also ticked
higher. Nonetheless, job gains remained very low in
historic perspective. Expanding establishments were
the source of the modest improvement in hiring, while
job creation at new companies was flat.
- Mass Layoffs - 48
- The number of layoffs involving at least 50 workers
from a single establishment in January was 2,227
compared with 2,275 in December. The layoffs
involved 237,902 workers compared with 226,117 in
December. All numbers are seasonally adjusted. The
global recession is causing a large number of layoffs
in manufacturing as producers cut output to control
inventories.
- Jobless Claims +36K
- Initial claims for jobless benefits increased 36,000
to 667,000 for the week ending February 21, far
exceeding expectations for a small decline.
Continuing claims increased 114,000 to 5.112 million
for the week ending February 14, yet another new
high. This is grim news for the labor market, showing
that layoffs are rising and an increasing number of
people remain unemployed.
- New-Home Sales (C25) -10.2%
- New-home sales continued to fall in January,
coming in at 309,000, down by 10.2% from the revised
December figure of 344,000. New-home sales are
down by 48.2% from their January 2008 level. The
median sales price also fell to $201,100, a decrease
of 9.9% from December. The months' supply of new
homes also reached a new high. All told, the market
for new homes continued to deteriorate in
January.
- Existing-Home Sales -5.3%
- Existing-home sales slid by an unexpected 5.3%
in January, more than reversing December's gain. At
4.49 million units, the pace of sales has fallen well
below the 4.9 million to 5 million range that it had
been treading in for much of the last 16 months. The
months of inventory picked up slightly from 9.4 months
to 9.6 months, but this increase was likely due to
seasonal factors. Months of inventory in January were
below the year-ago reading of 10.2. Compared with a
year ago, listings were down by 13.5%, the largest
decline during this housing cycle, indicating that
supply conditions are improving. The median existing-
house price declined by 14.8% y/y, a tiny improvement
over the 15.2% decline that occurred in December.
- FHFA Purchase-Only House Price
Index
- The FHFA purchase-only index showed a slight
monthly increase of 0.1% for the U.S. in December,
although this slight increase was somewhat uneven.
Much of the improvement was due to a 2.7% monthly
increase in house prices in the West North Central
region. The West South Central region also improved
somewhat. Nevertheless, the purchase-only index is
still down by 8.7% from December 2007.
- Case-Shiller Monthly Home Price
Indices
- Existing-house prices remained in free fall during
the three months ending in December, ending 2008
on a gloomy note. The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city house
price index fell 18.5% from a year ago in December, a
slightly greater decline than the consensus
expectation. The 10-city index posted a larger year-ago
decline of 19.2%. Both indices recorded greater year-
ago percentage decreases in December than during
November, establishing new record annual rates of
decline.
- MBA Mortgage Applications Survey -15.1%
- In the week ending February 20, the MBA market
index fell 15.1% to 743.5. Both parts of the composite
also declined. The purchase index fell 2.6% to 250.5,
while the refinance index fell 19.1% to 3,618. Contract
rates on both 30-year fixed and one-year adjustable
mortgages held somewhat steady.
- Chain Store Sales -0.8%
- Chain store sales rose 0.6% in the week ending
February 21, lifted by favorable weather, discounting,
and a dip in gasoline prices. The year-ago decline
shrank to 0.8%, the smallest decline in seven weeks
as a result of the gain. Despite the improvement,
however, sales are still falling, a sign of very
restrained spending.
- Oil and Gas Inventories +700kb
- Crude oil inventories rose by 700,000 barrels
during the week ending February 20, according to the
Energy Information Administration, below expectations
of a 1.25 million barrel buildup. Gasoline inventories
unexpectedly fell by 3.4 million barrels, compared with
expectations that they would remain unchanged.
Distillate inventories rose by 800,000 barrels,
exceeding expectations of a 1.2 million barrel decline.
Refinery operating capacity fell to 81.4% from 82.3%.
Total domestic petroleum demand fell. This mixed
report points to moderately higher oil prices.
- Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report -
101bvf
- Working gas in underground storage decreased
by 101 billion cubic feet during the week ending
February 20. The consensus estimate was for a
decline of 108 billion cubic feet.
- Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory
- Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory, Inc. trades as
Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory at 320 locations
nationwide and in Canada and Internationally.
- The stores, offering chocolates, candy, truffles and
caramels, occupy spaces of 600 sq.ft. to 1,000 sq.ft. in
malls and entertainment, mixed-use, outlet, specialty
and tourist centers.
- Growth opportunities are
sought nationwide during the coming 18 months.
-
Typical leases run five years. A vanilla shell and
specific improvements are required.
- Major
competitors include Godiva.
- The company is
franchising.
- For more information, contact
- Kraig
Carlson or Dave Ritchie,
- Rocky Mountain
Chocolate Factory, Inc.,
- 265 Turner Drive,
Durango, CO 81303
- Daily Grill and The Grill on The Alley
- Grill Concepts, Inc. trades as Daily Grill and The
Grill on The Alley at 32 locations throughout CA, IL, MA,
MD, OR, TX, VA, WA and Washington, DC.
- The
restaurants occupy spaces of 5,000 sq.ft. to 8,000
sq.ft. in freestanding locations, hotels, malls, office
buildings and mixed-use and specialty centers.
- Growth opportunities are sought throughout major
metropolitan markets in AZ, CA, FL, IL, Boston, MA;
MD, NV, TX, VA and Washington, DC during the
coming 18 months.
- Typical leases run 15 years
with options.
- Specific improvements are required.
- For more information, contact
- Robert
Chais,
- Grill Concepts, Inc.,
- PO Box 2546,
- El
Segundo, CA 90245;
- Web site:
www.dailygrill.com.
- Lenny's Sub Shop
- Lenny's Sub Shop operates 175 locations
nationwide.
- The restaurants, serving subs and
other sandwiches along with salads, occupy spaces
of 1,500 sq.ft. to 2,400 sq.ft. in endcaps of
entertainment, specialty and strip centers, in addition
to downtown/urban locations.
- Growth
opportunities are sought throughout the existing
markets during the coming 18 months.
- Typical
leases run five years.
- The company prefers to
locate in areas with strong daytime demographics.
- The company is franchising.
- For more information, contact
- Andrew
Bryant,
- Lenny's Sub Shop,
- 8295 Tournament
Drive, Suite 200,
- Memphis, TN 38125;
- Web
site: www.lennys.com
- Popeye's Chicken & Biscuits
- Popeye's Chicken & Biscuits operates 1,870
locations nationwide and internationally.
- The fast
food restaurants, serving Cajun-inspired fried chicken,
occupy spaces of 2,000 sq.ft. to 3,000 sq.ft. in inline
spaces and freestanding locations.
- Growth
opportunities are sought nationwide during the
coming 18 months.
- For more information, contact
- Bob Faller,
- Popeye's Chicken & Biscuits,
- 5555 Glen Ridge
Connector Northeast, Suite 300,
- Atlanta, GA
30342.
Grants
Improve Wind Energy!
20% Wind by 2030: Overcoming the
Challenges
- POSTED: 12/30/2008
- FUNDING SOURCE: Golden Field Office
- ELIGIBILITY: Nonprofits, for-profits, and public
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Greetings!
- Home and Condo Sales and
Prices
- How do we rank?
- Who is doing better?
Public Policy Initiatives
Economic NotesGrants
This Weeks Leads
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SCORECARD |
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Existing Home Sales - State/Region 2006 -
2008
Ranked by %
Change
State | 2006 |
2007 | 2008 | Yr. %
Change |
United
States | 6,478 | 5,652 |
4,91 | -5.9% |
West | 1,346 |
1,084 | 1,070 | 26.5%
|
Midwest | 1,483 |
1,327 | 1,129 | -12.4%
|
South | 2,563 |
2,235 | 1,864 | -13.4%
|
Northeast | 1,086 |
1,006 | 849 | -13.9%
|
NEVADA | 70.2 |
45.3 | 65.5 | 133.7%
|
ARIZONA | 142.9 |
105.5 | 116.3 | 42.6%
|
COLORADO | 123.7 |
118.2 | 106.8 | -9.7%
|
WYOMING | 13.6 |
12.9 | 10.0 | -14.3%
|
NEW
MEXICO | 58.2 | 44.5 |
33.3 | -20.9% |
MONTANA | 26.8 |
24.1 | 19.9 | -21.4%
|
IDAHO | N/A |
36.3 | 26.5 | -21.8%
|
UTAH | 51.7 |
41.9 | 30.8 | -24.4%
|
Source: National Association of Realtors, February
2009
Metropolitan Area Apartment, Condo-Coops
Sales - State/Region 2006 - 2008
Ranked by %
Change
State | 2006 |
2007 | 2008 | Yr. %
Change |
U.S. | 221.9 |
226.3 | 210.0 | -15.8%
|
NE | 249.7 |
256.1 | 252.7 | -6.3%
|
MW | 190.9 |
195.2 | 188.2 | -10.1%
|
SO | 184.0 |
185.1 | 167.2 | -17.0%
|
WE | 264.7 |
263.3 | 218.7 | -30.1%
|
Albuquerque,
NM | 138.6 | 149.2 |
151.4 | 8.6% |
Colorado Springs,
CO | 148.1 | 151.5 |
143.5 | -3.2% |
Boulder,
CO | 213.1 | 214.0 |
214.2 | -3.7% |
Salt Lake City,
UT | 137.6 | 163.1 |
164.4 | -4.3% |
Tucson,
AZ | 162.5 | 151.5 | 135.6
| -9.8% |
Austin-Round Rock,
TX | 150.4 | 172.3 |
170.2 | -10.5% |
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale,
AZ | 182.0 | 186.3 |
162.4 | -24.1% |
Reno-Sparks,
NV | 191.4 | 197.2 |
152.0 | -39.0% |
Las Vegas-Paradise,
NV | 201.9 | 193.1 |
128.9 | -48.9% |
Source: National Association of Realtors, February
2009
Metropolitan Area Home Prices -
State/Region 2006 - 2008
Ranked by %
Change
State | 2006 |
2007 | 2008 | Yr. %
Change |
U.S. | 221.9 |
217.9 | 197.1 | -12.4%
|
WE | 350.5 |
342.5 | 275.4 | -25.1%
|
MW | 164.8 |
161.4 | 150.5 | -10.6%
|
SO | 183.7 |
178.8 | 170.0 | -7.5%
|
NE | 280.3 |
288.1 | 271.5 | -4.7%
|
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale,
AZ | 268.2 | 257.4 |
191.3 | -35.5% |
Las Vegas-Paradise,
NV | 317.4 | 297.7 |
220.5 | -33.6% |
Reno-Sparks,
NV | 347.2 | 321.4 |
259.1 | -23.3%
|
---|
Tucson,
AZ | 244.9 | 244.8 |
204.3 | -21.2% |
Boise City-Nampa,
ID | N/A | 206.0 |
188.7 | -14.7% |
Denver-Aurora,
CO | 249.5 | 245.4 |
219.3 | -12.7% |
Boulder,
CO | 366.4 | 376.2 |
359.0 | -12.6% |
Colorado Springs,
C | 218.2 | 217.5 |
205.5 | -11.2% |
Albuquerque,
NM | 184.2 | 198.5 |
192.6 | -6.2% |
Salt Lake City,
UT | 203.0 | 232.0 |
229.6 | -1.6% |
Source: National Association of Realtors, February
2009
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Public Policy Initiatives |
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CO - Ritter Creates Board to Oversee Stimulus
Spending.Gov. Bill Ritter has created a new board
to oversee how Colorado spends its federal stimulus
money. Ritter said he has appointed his economic
development director, Don Elliman, to lead the group.
The board will be composed of another dozen people
from state government and Colorado's business
community. Ritter said the group will answer
questions about how the money will be spent but said
that information probably won't be known until federal
agencies establish their rules.
http://www.koaa.com/aaaa_top-spending
DE - Markell Announces Boost for Electric Car
Company.Gov. Jack Markell announced that the
Delaware Economic Development Office will give a
$94,140 grant to AutoPort, Inc., for a project designed
to retrofit existing gasoline-powered Toyota Scions so
they can run on electric battery power. Markell's office
described it as one step in his "economic prosperity"
plan that puts a clean environment at the heart of
economic development efforts.
http://www.delawareonline.com/902180332/1003
WV - Manchin Positioning State as Leader in
Energy.West Virginia is well positioned as the
nation moves toward alternative energy, clean-coal
technology and a lesser dependence on foreign oil,
national energy and mining officials say. West Virginia
moved forward with its own energy plan Thursday as
state lawmakers introduced Gov. Joe Manchin's
Alternative and Renewable Energy Portfolio Act. It calls
for 10 percent of the state's energy to come from
alternative or renewable sources by 2015 and 25
percent by 2025. "Right now we're 99 percent
dependent on coal in the form that we burn it in right
now," Manchin said. "We know that we have to
change, and we can make it much better."
http://www.dailymail.902190654
WY - Freudenthal Works to Increase Power
Lines.Gov. Dave Freudenthal plans to meet with
federal officials in Washington to urge the construction
of more power lines and to push for the state's
involvement in any federal coal research projects.
Freudenthal said he wants to learn about the Obama
administration's support for developing clean coal
technology. Wyoming is the nation's largest coal-
producing state. "If they're going to open that up, we
want to be part of that discussion through the School
of Energy Resources and our partnership with
General Electric," Freudenthal said.
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2009/02/20/ap607716
3.html
NJ - Corzine Participates in Health Care
Discussion.Gov. Jon S. Corzine addressed AARP
members in a unique news conference where they
were featured in front of a live audience at AARP's
state office. "As the economic meltdown continues,
and unemployment rises, our nation's broken health
care system will worsen as tens of thousands, if not
millions, more will lose insurance around the nation,"
said Governor Corzine. "Today, we have a new
partnership with Washington that recognizes there is
a huge cost for doing nothing to repair that system --
for individuals, for businesses, for the economy, for
the state, and for the future of the nation. We must
work together to develop substantial, meaningful,
comprehensive health care reform."
http://www.app.com/article/-1/HOMETOWNS
NC - Perdue Announces Leader of Office of
Economic Recovery and Investment.Gov. Beverly
Perdue announced that Dempsey Benton, the former
secretary of the state Health and Human Services
Department, will lead the state new Office of
Economic Recovery & Investment and provide
accountability for use of NC's stimulus money. "This
money and these programs must be put to use
quickly and effectively to create jobs, provide important
services and get our economy moving again," Perdue
said in the news release. "Dempsey Benton brings
the skill and experience to oversee this important
effort. He will bring the transparency and accountability
to this office that our citizens expect."
http://abclocal.go.com/wtvd=6662839
AR - Beebe Promises College Tuition Aid to
High School Students.Gov. Mike Beebe told Little
Rock Hall High students that they don't have to be
wealthy to attain a college education, but if they
prepare in high school and apply for college, the state
will help eliminate logistical and financial
barriers. "You don't have to be rich to go to college,
and you don't have to have all your money set aside
already to go to college," Beebe said at an event
kicking off the "Say Go College Week" campaign in the
state's high schools. "We have a variety of aid
opportunities," the governor said, citing about 20
different funding programs. "Part of the problem is
sometimes they are hard to understand and hard to
access. We are going to fix that. We are going to
simplify that process where it will not be your problem,
and you won't have to worry about that."
http://www.nwanews.com/adg/News/252636/
DE - Markell Makes Green Jobs a Priority.
Gov.
Jack Markell announced that Delaware will be the only
state participating in a national project that puts green
jobs at the top increase incomes, productivity and
competitiveness. The state will implement strategies
that reduce energy costs for businesses, making
them more competitive, and for homeowners,
returning dollars to the local economy. It will also
implement strategies to help Delaware's existing
businesses become participants in the green
economy, and it will create a workforce trained to
power green industries in Delaware, such as electric-
vehicle manufacturing and the constructing of parts for
wind
turbines.http://www.ledgerdelaware.com/articles/.txt
NJ - Corzine Praises Recent SCHIP
Expansion.Gov. Jon S. Corzine said the recent
reauthorization of the State Children's Health
Insurance Program mirrors one of his top priorities for
the state: ensuring health care for all children. Corzine
said "ensuring that children have access to health
insurance so they have a healthy start in life" has been
one of his top priorities as governor and through
SCHIP and NJ FamilyCare, "we are making great
strides to reach these children and we will continue
our outreach efforts to enroll every eligible child."
http://www.ifawebnews.com/f48b369619632.txt
NM - Richardson to Introduce Stronger Ethics
Reform Bills.Gov. Bill Richardson announced that
he would introduce legislation this week to ban
campaign contributions from corporations, contractors
and lobbyists. A second piece of legislation his office
will introduce will require contractors to register with
the state and disclose information such as campaign
contributions. "I'm proud of the reforms we've enacted
since I've taken office, including gift limits, public
financing for appellate judges, and a ban on
contractor campaign contributions during the
procurement process," Richardson said. "I'm urging
lawmakers to expand on those reforms and to break
the logjam that has blocked our past efforts to create
strong and meaningful ethics laws."
http://newmexicoindependent.-government-record
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Commercial Real Estate Outlook - National |
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The NAR forecast for four major commercial
sectors analyzes quarterly data in the office, industrial,
retail and multifamily markets. Historic data were
provided by Torto Wheaton Research.
- Office Market
- Losses in the job market continue to reduce
demand for office space. Vacancy rates are projected
to increase to 16.7 percent in the third quarter of 2009
from 13.4 percent in the third quarter of 2008.
- Annual rent in the office sector is expected to
decline 4.2 percent this year following a 0.4 percent
dip in 2008. In 57 markets tracked, net absorption of
office space, which includes the leasing of new space
coming on the market as well as space in existing
properties, is seen as a negative 77.4 million square
feet in 2009.
- Industrial Market
- The industrial sector is now beginning to feel the
impact of the global economic slowdown, which is
reducing the demand for exports. Vacancy rates in the
industrial sector are forecast to rise to 12.2 percent in
the third quarter of 2009 from 10.7 percent in the third
quarter of last year.
- Annual rent is estimated to fall 4.1 percent this
year, after declining 0.8 percent in 2008. Net
absorption of industrial space in 58 markets tracked
should be a negative 148.1 million square feet this
year. Because much of recent construction has been
built to suit specific needs, many obsolete structures
are on the market.
- Retail Market
- The slowdown in consumer spending has hit
retailers hard. The retail vacancy rate will probably rise
to 13.4 percent in the third quarter of this year from 9.8
percent in the third quarter of 2008. Average retail rent
is expected to fall 9.0 percent this year; it declined 2.0
percent in 2008. Net absorption of retail space in 53
tracked markets will likely to be a negative 49.8 million
square feet this year.
- Multifamily Market
- The apartment rental market - multifamily
housing - has held its own as a result of depressed
home sales as potential buyers seek rental housing.
Multifamily vacancy rates are forecast to edge up to 6.0
percent in third quarter of this year from 5.8 percent in
the third quarter of 2008.
- Average rent is projected to grow 1.7 percent this
year, following a 2.9 percent gain in 2008. Multifamily
net absorption should be 127,500 units in 59 tracked
metro areas in 2009.
Source: National Association of Realtors, 2/19/09
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