• GDP
• Real GDP contracted at a 3.8% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2008, much better than the consensus expectation for a 5.4% decline. Still, this was the biggest contraction in the economy since the first quarter of 1982. Consumer spending, business investment, and investment in housing all declined in the fourth quarter. The U.S. remains in the midst of the worst recession since the Great Depression. Real GDP contracted at a 3.8% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2008, much better than the consensus expectation for a 5.4% decline. Still, this was the biggest contraction in the economy since the first quarter of 1982. Consumer spending, business investment, and investment in housing all declined in the fourth quarter. The U.S. remains in the midst of the worst recession since the Great Depression.

• Personal Income
• Personal income fell 0.2% in December, as expected, after falling 0.4% in November (downwardly revised from 0.2%). Wage income fell for the third time in the last four months, driven by large job losses. Spending fell 1% after falling 0.8% the prior month (previously 1%), similar to expectations. Real spending fell 0.5%, more than reversing November's gain. The core PCE deflator was unchanged for the third straight month, although the top-line deflator fell 0.5%, its third straight decline. The saving rate rose to 3.6% from 2.8% in November.

• Agricultural Prices
• The preliminary All Farm Products Index of Prices Received by Farmers rose for the first time in several months in January, gaining 1.5% from December. All upward pressure was from the crop index, which gained 5.4%, while the livestock index dropped 3.4%. Prices rose for soybeans, oranges, lettuce and broccoli, while producers received lower prices for milk, cotton, tomatoes and onions. Prices paid by farmers for the means of production on average were unchanged in the past month but remain 3.6% higher than in January 2008. Farmers paid less for mixed fertilizers, potash and phosphates, complete feeds, and diesel fuel. Feeder cattle cost more, and higher taxes, cash rates and interest expenses also dented farmers' bottom lines.

• Productivity and Costs
• Nonfarm business productivity in the fourth quarter advanced 3.2% at an annual rate, and unit labor costs increased at a moderate 1.8% pace. A sharp decline in hours worked more than offset the reduction in output during the quarter, supporting the gain in productivity.

• Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey
• The January Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey from the Federal Reserve Board indicates that while credit conditions are still tightening, the pace of the tightening has slowed measurably since the last survey. Though the share of banks that continue to tighten standards is high relative to previous peaks during 2001 and in the early 1990s, nearly all measures of lending standards either held the same since the October survey or were down slightly. This could be an indication that the aggressive actions taken by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury to restore credit market operations are beginning to take hold.

• Employment Cost Index
• Employer costs rose 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2008, below expectations and following increases of 0.7% in each of the first three quarters of the year. Both wage and salary growth and benefits cost growth decelerated, to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively. Tame wage pressures will reduce inflationary concerns for the Fed, but slower wage growth will squeeze consumers facing numerous economic headwinds.

• Monster Employment Index
• U.S. employers placed fewer online recruitment ads during January than in December, bringing recruitment activity to a new cycle low. The Monster Employment Index fell 13 points between December and January, a slightly larger decrease than the 12- point drop between November and December. Of the 20 industries tracked by the index, all but two reported month-ago decreases in job availability. The decline dragged the index down 26% on a year-ago basis, a greater annual rate of decline than the 22% drop recorded in December. The greater rate of decline points to a weak start for employment in 2009.

• Factory Orders (M3)
• Factory orders fell 3.9% in December, only a slightly larger decline than expected. This was the fifth consecutive month of decline, which sets a series record for consecutive declines. Orders excluding transportation were down 4.4%. Orders for durable goods were revised down further from their first estimate to a 3% drop, and nondurables shipments fell 4.8%. Durables shipments and unfilled orders also were revised lower. Durables inventories rose 0.4%, while nondurables inventories fell 4.4% because of a drop in petroleum inventories.

• Semiconductor Billings
• Global semiconductor sales fell to $17.4 billion in December from $20.8 billion in the prior month on a three-month moving average basis. Weak demand in consumer, manufacturing and automotive sectors is depressing demand for semiconductors.

• Jobless Claimsv
• Initial claims for unemployment benefits increased by 35,000 to 626,000 for the week ending January 31, exceeding expectations for a milder gain. Continuing claims also edged higher, rising by 20,000 to 4.788 million for the week ending January 24. This indicates the labor market is still rapidly deteriorating.

• Major Job Cuts
• Job cut announcements surged in January in tandem with announcements of plunging fourth quarter earnings or losses and the expectation of very weak market conditions in 2009. Companies announced job cuts totaling 241,749, the highest total in more than seven years and 45% more than in December 2008.

• Pending Home Sales
• The pending home sales index rose 6.3% in December, significantly exceeding expectations for a 1% increase. November's preliminary reading underwent a small upward revision. The increase in pending home sales in December suggests that more buyers took advantage of low interest rates and bargain-basement house prices. This reading provides a hopeful indication that sales of existing homes could firm modestly over the next few months.

• MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
• In the week ending January 30, the MBA market index rose 8.6% to 795.4. This was driven by an increase in the refinance index, which climbed 15.8% this week to close at 3,906.3. For a second week, the purchase index declined 11.2% to finish at 261.4. These relatively large swings occurred despite slight increases in contract rates.

• Chain Store Sales
• Consumers continued to cut spending in January but at a slower pace than in recent months. Chain store sales fell 1.6% for the month, according to the ICSC, compared with December's 2% decline. Excluding Wal-Mart, sales tumbled 4.8%, slightly more than December's 4.6% drop but still less than November's sharp decline. Gasoline prices again were a significant drag on sales for the month, undermining sales at warehouse clubs. The few bright spots were discounters selling food and drug stores.

• Oil and Gas Inventories
• Crude oil inventories ballooned by 7.2 million barrels during the week ending January 30, according to the Energy Information Administration, far surpassing expectations of a 3 million barrel build. Gasoline inventories rose by 300,000 barrels. Distillate inventories fell by 1.4 million barrels. Refinery operating capacity rose to 83.5% from 82.8%. Total domestic petroleum demand rose slightly. This report points to lower oil prices.

• Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
• Working gas in underground storage decreased by 195 billion cubic feet during the week ending January 30. The consensus estimate was for a decline of 190 billion cubic feet.

• Bellini Juvenile Designer Furniture
• Bellini Juvenile Designer Furniture operates at 60 locations nationwide.
• The stores, offering upscale furniture and accessories for children, occupy spaces of 3,500 sq.ft. to 5,500 sq.ft. in lifestyle, specialty and strip centers.
• Growth opportunities are sought throughout major metro markets nationwide during the coming 18 months, with representation by Sommers Consultants.
• Typical leases run 10 years.
• A vanilla shell is required. T
• he company is franchising.
• For more information, contact
  • Ron Sommers,
  • Sommers Consultants,
  • 01 North Main Street,
  • New City, NY 10956

Grants for Fire Departments!

Assistance to Firefighters Grant Program

• POSTED: 1/29/2009
• FUNDING SOURCE: FEMA
• ELIGIBILITY: Fire departments and nonaffiliated EMS organizations
• $ AVAILABLE: $35,000,000
• GRANTS AVAILABLE: N.A.
• MAX GRANT SIZE: $2,750,000
• DEADLINE: 3/6/09
• CONTACT INFORMATION: http://www.firegrantsupport.com/docs/2008FPSguidan ce.pdf
• DESCRIPTION: Grants to enhance fire departments' and nonaffiliated EMS organizations' firefighting and emergency response needs by funding additional tools and resources necessary to more effectively protect the health and safety of the public.

Increased Financial Lending in Distressed Communities!

Bank Enterprise Award Program

• POSTED: 1/30/2009
• FUNDING SOURCE: Dept. of Treasury
• ELIGIBILITY: Insured Depository Institutions, including CDFIs
• $ AVAILABLE: $20,000,000
• GRANTS AVAILABLE: N.A.
• MAX GRANT SIZE: $500,000
• DEADLINE: 3/13/09
• CONTACT INFORMATION: http://edocket.access.gpo.gov/2009/E9-1576.htm
• DESCRIPTION: Grants to encourage Insured Depository Institutions to increase their levels of loans, investments, services, and technical assistance within Distressed Communities, and financial assistance to Community Development Financial Institutions (CDFIs) through grants, stock purchases, loans, deposits, and other forms of financial and technical assistance.