• Global Business Confidence
• Sentiment remains darkly pessimistic across the globe. Businesses reported last week that their sales were as weak as they have been on record. Hiring intentions remain very poor and pricing power has collapsed, suggesting that deflation is increasingly likely. Those that work in government are most worried, followed by businesses in financial and business services. The global economic downturn continues to intensify.

• FOMC Monetary Policy
• The Federal Open Market Committee announced it is keeping the fed funds target rate in a range from 0% to 0.25% and expects to keep it there "for some time." The committee's statement said that the "economy has weakened further" from the FOMC's previous meeting in mid-December. The FOMC expects economic growth to resume later this year, "but the downside risks to that outlook are significant." The statement expressed some concern about possible deflation. The statement said that the central bank will "employ all available tools" to boost growth but does not mention any steps beyond those it has already taken. One FOMC member dissented, calling for the Fed to purchase Treasuries.

• Conference Board Leading Indicators
• The Conference Board index of leading indicators surprised to the upside in December, rising 0.3%. However, without a large increase in the real money supply, leading indicators would be far weaker. The Federal Reserve is expanding its balance sheet beyond what is needed to keep rates at zero, increasing the size of the monetary base and broader measures of money supply to a lesser extent. The index's weakening trend indicates that the slowdown will persist, but it also suggests that the economy is moving through the point of maximum decline.

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence
• The Conference Board index of consumer confidence retreated slightly to another record low in January. The index fell to 37.7 from December's 38.6 (upwardly revised from 38). The expectations component was responsible for the bulk of the decline, falling to 43 from 44.2 (previously 43.8). The present situation fell to 29.9 from 30.2 (previously 29.4). Assessments of current labor market conditions remained very poor but improved slightly from December.

• California Manufacturing Survey
• California's manufacturing sector remains mired in recession. The composite index fell to 44.7 in the fourth quarter, down from 45.1 in the third quarter and well below the expansionary threshold of 50.

• Durable Goods (Advance)
• Durable goods orders fell 2.6% in December, following a 3.7% decline in November. This was a larger than expected decrease. New orders have fallen for five consecutive months now. Shipments fell 0.7%, following a 4.2% decline in November. Unfilled orders were down 1.3% over the month, and inventories rose 0.4%. Orders of core capital goods were down 2.8% over the month, reflecting ongoing weak business investment conditions.

• Mass Layoffs
• The number of layoffs involving at least 50 workers from a single establishment in December was 2,275, compared with 2,328 in November. The layoffs involved 226,117 workers, compared with 224,079 in November. All numbers are seasonally adjusted. Corporations are cutting payrolls to reduce expenses, as revenue growth is decelerating.

• Jobless Claims
• Initial jobless claims increased by 3,000 to 588,000 for the week ending January 24. This was in line with expectations. This latest data point suggests that the labor market continues to rapidly deteriorate.

• Case-Shiller Monthly Home Price Indices
• The descent of house prices slowed somewhat during the three months ending in November. Although house prices declined at the greatest year- ago rate on record in November, the rate of decline did not increase significantly from that recorded during October. The 10-city index declined 19.1% from a year ago, unchanged from the decline recorded in October. The 20-city index decreased by 18.2% from November 2007.

• Existing-Home Sales
• Existing-home sales ended last year on a surprisingly strong note. Home sales increased by 6.5% compared with November. This is the strongest one-month gain in sales since 2002. The months of inventory dropped sharply, from a peak of more than 11 months to 9.3, although seasonal factors may be behind the large improvement. Despite the cheerier sales figures, the housing market remains very weak, with only 4.74 million annualized units sold in December, the weakest pace since the late 1990s. November sales were revised downward slightly. The descent in the median house price accelerated in December to -15% y/y, likely a reflection of stepped-up foreclosure sales. For all of 2008, home sales were down by 13% and the median price declined by more than 9%.

• New-Home Sales (C25)
• The dismal housing market has taken a turn for the worse. Sales of new homes sank 14% m/m in December. At 331,000 annualized units, sales have sunk to a pace that goes back to 1963. Further, the Census Bureau revised downward the November sales data. Months of inventory soared to 13, a new record high, and the median sales price is down by 9%. Conditions appear dire.

• MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
• In the week ending January 25, the MBA market index fell 38.8% to 732.1. This was driven by a decrease in the refinance index, which fell 48% this week to close at 3,373.9. In step, the purchase index declined a mild 2.9% to finish at 294.3. These declines all occurred despite contract rates holding relatively steady.

• Chain Store Sales
• Chain store sales dropped 1.8% in the week ending January 24, continuing the erratic weekly pattern and downward trend as consumers remain very hesitant to spend. The year-ago decline shrank expanded to 2.4%, the largest decline in decades.

• Oil and Gas Inventories
• Crude oil inventories increased by 6.2 million barrels during the week ending January 23, according to the Energy Information Administration, far surpassing expectations of a 2.9 million barrel build. Gasoline inventories fell by 100,000 barrels, contrasting with expectations of a 2 million barrel build. Distillate inventories fell by 1 million barrels, in line with expectations. Refinery operating capacity fell to 82.8% from 83.3%, more than expected, from 85.2%. Total domestic petroleum demand rose considerably. This mixed report points to higher oil prices.

• Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
• Working gas in underground storage decreased by 186 billion cubic feet during the week ending January 23. The consensus estimate was for a decline of 170 billion cubic feet.

• Schlotzsky's Deli
• Focus Brands, Inc. trades as Schlotzsky's Deli at 370 locations throughout 32 states nationwide and internationally.
• The deli's occupy spaces of 2,800 sq.ft. in entertainment, power and strip centers.
• Plans call for 40 openings throughout the central, Mid-Atlantic, midwestern and southwestern regions of the U.S. during the coming 18 months.
• Typical leases run for terms of 10 years.
• A vanilla shell and specific improvements are required.
• Preferred demographics include a population of 50,000 within three miles earning $55,000 as the average household income.
• Major competitors include Quiznos, Panera Bread and McAlisters Deli.
• The company is franchising.
• For more information, contact
  • Mark Whittle,
  • Focus Brands, Inc.,
  • 200 Glenridge Point Parkway,
  • Atlanta, GA 30342;
  • Web site: www.focusbrands.com.

• Dairy Queen, DQ Grill & Chill and Orange Julius
• American Dairy Queen trades as Dairy Queen, DQ Grill & Chill and Orange Julius at 5,893 locations nationwide and internationally.
• The dessert shops/restaurants, offering burgers, ice cream, smoothies and fries, occupy spaces of 2,600 sq.ft. to 3,600 sq.ft. in freestanding locations.
• Plans call for 50 openings nationwide during the coming 18 months.
• Typical leases run 30 years.
• Preferred cotenants include Target and Wal*Mart.
• Preferred demographics include a population of 30,000 within three miles earning $35,000 as the minimum household income.
• Major competitors include Burger King, Culvers, McDonald's, Steak & Shake and Wendy's.
• A land area of 34,000 sq.ft. is required.
• For more information, contact
  • American Dairy Queen,
  • PO Box 390286,
  • Minneapolis, MN 55439-0286;
  • 952-896-8604,
  • Web site: www.dq.com.

• Wendy's
• Wendy's International, Inc. trades as Wendy's at 6,500 locations nationwide and internationally.
• The fast food restaurants occupy spaces of 2,800 sq.ft. to 3,300 sq.ft. in freestanding locations, lifestyle, power and strip centers, in addition to urban/downtown areas.
• Growth opportunities are sought nationwide during the coming 18 months.
• Typical leases run 15 years with 15-year options.
• Preferred demographics include a population of 20,000 within two miles.
• A land area of one acre is required for freestanding locations.
• For more information, contact
  • Kris Kaffenbarger,
  • Wendy's International, Inc.,
  • One Dave Thomas Boulevard,
  • Dublin, OH 43017

Capital Funds for Homeless Shelters!

Homeless Providers Grant and Per Diem Program

• POSTED: 1/23/2009
• FUNDING SOURCE: Dept. of Veterans Affairs
• ELIGIBILITY: Nonprofit and public agencies, including states and local governments
• $ AVAILABLE: $15,000,000
• GRANTS AVAILABLE: N.A.
• MAX GRANT SIZE: N.A.
• DEADLINE: 3/25/09
• CONTACT INFORMATION: http://edocket.access.gpo.gov/2009/E9-1509.htm
• DESCRIPTION: Grants for capital improvements to housing for homeless persons.

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Improve Transportation in Federal Parks!

• Paul S. Sarbanes Transit in Parks Program
• POSTED: 1/23/2009
• FUNDING SOURCE: Dept. of Transportation
• ELIGIBILITY: Federal land management agencies
• $ AVAILABLE: $26,900,000
• GRANTS AVAILABLE: N.A.
• MAX GRANT SIZE: N.A.
• DEADLINE: 2/27/09
• CONTACT INFORMATION: http://edocket.access.gpo.gov/2009/E9-1258.htm
• DESCRIPTION: Funds for capital and planning expenses for alternative transportation systems such as buses and trams in federally-managed parks and public lands.

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