Monday Report - End of Year
Housing Prices Index December 29th - 2008

Industry trends in recessions



National Housing Price Index 12 Month Change - Single Family Detached, Top CBSAs as of October 2008

  1. Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario CA - 28.79%
  2. Oakland-Fremont-Hayward CA -28.55%
  3. Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall FL -27.34%
  4. Las Vegas-Paradise NV -26.56%
  5. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale CA - 26.48%
  6. Cape Coral-Fort Myers FL -25.94%
  7. Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale AZ -23.19%
  8. San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos CA - 23.06%
  9. Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach FL -22.03%
  10. Orlando-Kissimmee FL -18.92%
  11. San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City CA -16.28%
  12. Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater FL - 16.13%
  13. Washington-Arlington-Alexandria DC-VA-MD-WV -13.74%
  14. Honolulu HI -13.28%
  15. National Average -11.20%
  16. Chicago-Naperville-Joliet IL -10.32%
  17. Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington MN-WI - 10.30%
  18. Seattle-Bellevue-Everett WA -9.40%
  19. Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton OR-WA -9.05%
  20. Detroit-Livonia-Dearborn MI -7.45%
  21. Boston-Quincy MA -7.39%
  22. Edison-New Brunswick NJ -5.34%
  23. New York-White Plains-Wayne NY-NJ -5.23%
  24. Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor OH -4.94%
  25. Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord NC-SC -3.93%
  26. St. Louis MO-IL -3.29%
  27. Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta GA -3.14%
  28. Philadelphia PA -2.52%
  29. Salt Lake City UT -2.45%
  30. Denver-Aurora CO -1.86%
  31. Raleigh-Cary NC -0.88%
  32. San Antonio TX 1.39%
  33. Dallas-Plano-Irving TX 2.43%
  34. Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown TX 4.43%
  35. Austin-Round Rock TX 5.26%

Source: First American CoreLogic, LoanPerformance HPI, Single Family Detached Series as of October 2008


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Teaching American History Grant Program

  • POSTED: 12/23/2008
  • FUNDING SOURCE: Dept. of Education
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  • MAX GRANT SIZE: $2,000,000
  • DEADLINE: 1/22/09 (LOI); 3/9/09 (final)
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Grants to Explore the Humanities in New Ways!

America's Media Makers Development and Production Grants

  • POSTED: 11/25/2008
  • FUNDING SOURCE: National Endowment for the Humanities
  • ELIGIBILITY: Nonprofit and public agencies
  • MAX GRANT SIZE: $75,000 / $800,000
  • DEADLINE: 1/28/09
  • CONTACT INFORMATION: _development.html
  • DESCRIPTION: Grants to support media projects that explore significant events, figures, or developments in the humanities in creative and new ways.

Economic Notes:

  • International Business Confidence
  • Another week and another new record low for global business confidence. Business investment in equipment and software and demand for office space led the decline in sentiment last week. Hiring intentions improved a bit, but remain consistent with job losses of close to 500,000 per month in the U.S. Businesses are equally pessimistic in North America, South America and Europe, and while Asian business confidence is not quite as dark, it is weakening rapidly. Businesses have little pricing power. The entire global economy is mired in recession according to the business confidence survey results.
  • GDP
  • The contraction in real GDP in the third quarter was unrevised in the final report. There was an annualized decline of 0.5%, the same as in the preliminary report; this matched the consensus. There were upward revisions to investment in nonresidential structures and farm inventories, which were offset by downward revisions to private nonfarm inventories and investment in equipment and software. Profits saw a small downward revision to $1.52 trillion, a decline of $18.5 billion from the second quarter; this compares with an estimated decline in profits of $14.6 billion in the preliminary report. Real GDP will contract further over the next few quarters.
  • Personal Income
  • Personal income fell 0.2% in November, more than expected, after increasing 0.1% in October (downwardly revised from 0.3%). Wage income fell for the second time in the last three months, driven by large job losses. Spending fell 0.6% after falling 1% the prior month, more in line with expectations. Real spending rose 0.6% following five consecutive declines due to falling prices. The core PCE deflator was unchanged for the second straight month, while the top-line deflator fell 1.1%. The saving rate rose to 2.8% from 2.4% in October.
  • Durable Goods (Advance)
  • New orders for manufactured durable goods fell 1% in November following an 8.4% decline in October. This was the fourth monthly decline in new orders but was a smaller than expected drop. Orders excluding transportation were up 1.2% after three consecutive monthly declines. Shipments fell 2.6%, the fourth monthly decline in a row. Unfilled orders were down by 0.6%, and inventories rose 0.5%. The inventories- to-shipments ratio is the highest since the early 1990s.
  • Jobless Claims
  • Initial jobless benefit claims increased by 30,000 to 586,000 for the week ending December 20. This included more first-time claims than expected. Initial claims are very elevated from trends earlier in the year, indicating persistent weakening in the labor market.
  • Existing-Home Sales
  • Existing-home sales dropped from an annualized pace of 4.91 million in October to 4.49 million in November, a reading well below expectations and a new cycle low. Because existing-home sales measure contract closing, the November figures show how demand responded to the intensification of economic and financial problems that arose in September. A large inventory overhang continues to depress prices. Sales volumes will be supported by more distress sales and lower mortgage rates, but it is clear from this report that the hurdle to recovery is high.
  • New-Home Sales (C25)
  • The housing market remains dismal. Sales of new homes sank by another 3% m/m in November. At 407,000 annualized units, sales are as low as they have been since January 1991. Further, Census revised downward the October sales data. Months of inventory remain elevated at 11.5, and the median sales price is down by 12%.
  • MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
  • In the week ending December 19, the MBA composite market index increased 48.0% to close the week at 1,245.4. The increase in the refinance index was even larger, gaining 62.6% to end at 6,758.6. The purchase index increased 10.6% to 316.5. Both the market and refinance index are well above year-ago levels.
  • Oil and Gas Inventories
  • Crude oil inventories decreased by 3.1 million barrels during the week ending December 19, according to the Energy Information Administration, a marked break from expectations for a mild increase. Gasoline inventories increased by 3.3 million barrels, strongly beating expectations. Distillate supplies increased by 1.8 million barrels, exceeding the consensus forecast for a 400,000-barrel increase. This report shows evidence of weakening demand for energy products.
  • Natural Gas Storage Report
  • Working gas in underground storage decreased by 147 billion cubic feet during the week ending December 19. The consensus estimate was for a draw of 139 billion cubic feet.


Housing Prices Index

Where does the Salt Lake area rank?

Best Wishes for a Terrific New Year

  • Afgani - Saale Nao Mubbarak
  • Afrikaans - Gelukkige nuwe jaar
  • Albanian - Gezuar Vitin e Ri
  • Armenian - Snorhavor Nor Tari
  • Arabic - Kul 'am wa antum bikhair
  • Assyrian - Sheta Brikhta
  • Azeri - Yeni Iliniz Mubarek!
  • Bengali - Shuvo Nabo Barsho
  • Breton [Celtic Brythonic language] - Bloavezh Mat
  • Bulgarian - (pronounced "Chestita Nova Godina")
  • Cambodian - Soursdey Chhnam Tmei
  • Catalan - FELI ANY NOU
  • Chinese - Xin Nian Kuai Le
  • Corsican Language - Pace e Salute
  • Croatian Sretna Nova godina!
  • Cymraeg (Welsh) - Blwyddyn Newydd Dda
  • Czech - Stastny Novy rok
  • Danish - Godt Nytr
  • Dhivehi - Ufaaveri Aa Aharakah Edhen
  • Eskimo - Kiortame pivdluaritlo
  • Esperanto - Felican Novan Jaron
  • Estonians - Head uut aastat!
  • Finnish - Onnellista Uutta Vuotta
  • French - Bonne Annee
  • Gaelic - Bliadhna mhath ur
  • Galician - [NorthWestern Spain] Bo Nadal e Feliz Aninovo
  • German - Prosit Neujahr
  • Greek - Kenourios Chronos
  • Gujarati - Nutan Varshbhinandan
  • Hawaiian - Hauoli Makahiki Hou
  • Hebrew - L'Shannah Tovah
  • Hindi - Naye Varsha Ki Shubhkamanyen
  • Hong kong (Cantonese) - Sun Leen Fai Lok
  • Hungarian - Boldog Ooy Ayvet
  • Indonesian - Selamat Tahun Baru
  • Iranian - Sal -e- no mobarak
  • Iraqi - Sanah Jadidah
  • Irish - Bliain nua fe mhaise dhuit
  • Italian - Felice anno nuovo
  • Japan - Akimashite Omedetto Gozaimasu
  • Kabyle - Asegwas Amegaz
  • Kannada - Hosa Varushadha Shubhashayagalu
  • Khmer - Sua Sdei tfnam tmei
  • Korea - Saehae Bock Mani ba deu sei yo!
  • Kurdish - NEWROZ PIROZBE
  • Latvian - Laimigo Jauno Gadu!
  • Lithuanian - Laimingu Naujuju Metu
  • Laotian - Sabai dee pee mai
  • Macedonian - Srekjna Nova Godina
  • Madagascar - Tratry ny taona
  • Malay - Selamat Tahun Baru
  • Marathi - Nveen Varshachy Shubhechcha
  • Malayalam - Puthuvatsara Aashamsakal
  • Mizo - Kum Thar Chibai
  • Maltese - Is-Sena t- Tajba
  • Nepal - Nawa Barsha ko Shuvakamana
  • Norwegian - Godt Nyttr
  • Papua New Guinea - Nupela yia i go long yu
  • Pampango (Philippines) - Masaganang Bayung
  • Banua - Pashto Nawai Kall Mo Mubarak Shah
  • Persian - Sal -e- no mobarak
  • Philippines - Manigong Bagong Taon!
  • Polish - Szczesliwego Nowego Roku
  • Portuguese - Feliz Ano Novo
  • Punjabi Nave sal di mubarak
  • Romanian - AN NOU FERICIT
  • Russian - S Novim Godom
  • Samoa - Manuia le Tausaga Fou
  • Serbo-Croatian - Sretna nova godina
  • Sindhi Nayou Saal Mubbarak Hoje
  • Singhalese - Subha Aluth Awrudhak Vewa
  • Siraiki - Nawan Saal Shala Mubarak Theevay
  • Slovak - Stastny Novy rok
  • Slovenian sreno novo leto
  • Somali - Iyo Sanad Cusub Oo Fiican!
  • Spanish - Feliz Ano ~Nuevo
  • Swahili - Heri Za Mwaka Mpya
  • Swedish - GOTT NYTT R! /Gott nytt r!
  • Sudanese - Warsa Enggal
  • Tamil - Eniya Puthandu Nalvazhthukkal
  • Tibetian - Losar Tashi Delek
  • Telegu - Noothana samvatsara shubhakankshalu
  • Thai - Sawadee Pee Mai
  • Turkish - Yeni Yiliniz Kutlu Olsun
  • Ukrainian - Shchastlyvoho Novoho Roku
  • Urdu - Naya Saal Mubbarak Ho
  • Uzbek - Yangi Yil Bilan
  • Vietnamese -Chuc Mung Tan Nien
  • Welsh - Blwyddyn Newydd Dda!

    Bob and Jon Springmeyer

    Bonneville Research

  • Industry trends in recessions
    • Many companies can anticipate the performance of their sectors in a recession.
    • McKinsey research shows that during the 1990-91 and 2001-02 downturns, for example, US consumers reprioritized their spending rather than cutting it across the board.
    • Consumer spending dropped in discretionary categories like dining out, personal care products, and charitable donations.
    • But expenditures for groceries, reading materials, and other options that substitute for more expensive ones actually rose.
    • So did outlays on insurance, health care, and, above all, education.

      Source: McKinsey and Company, December 2008.

    Industry trends in recessions
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