Monday Report
October Sales Tax Distributions November 10th 2008


ECONOMIC NOTES:


 

SCORECARD

Sales Tax Distributions October 2007 & 2008

RankLocalityTotal October 2007 Total October 2008%Change
1Salt Lake City$4,136,015 $3,879,228-6.2%
2West Valley$1,947,889 $1,795,089-7.8%
3Sandy $1,686,784$1,576,605 -6.5%
4Orem $1,689,078$1,560,711 -7.6%
5Salt Lake County$1,853,314 $1,559,116-15.9%
6Provo $1,475,055$1,357,291 -8.0%
7West Jordan$1,318,638 $1,326,9950.6%
8St. George$1,362,685 $1,193,224-12.4%
9Murray $1,151,700$1,127,568 -2.1%
10Ogden $1,196,665$1,103,253 -7.8%
11Layton $1,059,698$1,014,852 -4.2%
12South Salt Lake$930,823$758,227 -18.5%
13South Jordan$608,489 $704,66015.8%
14Logan $703,893$675,395 -4.0%
15Taylorsville $700,168$661,276 -5.6%
16Draper $625,707$606,201 -3.1%
17Bountiful $519,463$530,339 2.1%
18Lehi $540,905$506,510 -6.4%
19American Fork$512,638 $485,287-5.3%
20Vernal $430,612$475,992 10.5%
21Midvale $492,580$474,434 -3.7%
22Cedar City$470,389$447,741 -4.8%
23Cottonwood Heights$439,569 $441,4710.4%
24Summit County$449,036 $430,541-4.1%
25Riverton$362,288 $402,84111.2%
26Tooele City$384,479 $378,035 -1.7%
27Roy $367,521$361,648-1.6%
28Spanish Fork$351,871$359,217 2.1%
29Riverdale $367,542$342,623 -6.8%
30Springville $343,270$334,026 -2.7%
31Pleasant Grove$334,957 $326,251 -2.6%
32Clearfield $307,001$288,719 -6.0%
33Uintah County$193,238 $280,49345.2%
34Kaysville $279,472$276,557 -1.0%
35Holladay $301,952$273,606 -9.4%
36South Ogden$249,347 $259,0993.9%
37Centerville $252,799$256,115 1.3%
38Farmington $196,984$248,92126.4%
39Washington City$258,260$237,417 -8.1%
40Lindon $295,252$236,604-19.9%
41Syracuse $220,952$228,958 3.6%
42Clinton $212,260$223,888 5.5%
43North Salt Lake$223,731$219,678 -1.8%
44Park City$238,435$219,016 -8.1%
45Brigham City$247,354$218,254 -11.8%
46Price $192,347$204,375 6.3%
47Payson $216,293$200,497 -7.3%
48Naples $152,035$172,079 13.2%
49Herriman $145,260$167,068 15.0%
50North Logan$161,154$165,576 2.7%
51North Ogden$164,759 $164,632-0.1%
52West Bountiful$161,475 $163,1151.0%
53Richfield $163,872$157,480 -3.9%
54Roosevelt $138,031$143,469 3.9%
55Tooele County$143,120 $139,396-2.6%
56Eagle Mountain$147,178 $138,613-5.8%
57Weber County$180,932 $137,880-23.8%
58Woods Cross$184,855$136,511 -26.2%
59Moab $117,255$121,907 4.0%
60Utah County$131,713$79,655 -39.5%

Big Winners - Sales Tax Distributions October 2007 & 2008

  1. Uintah County = +45.2%
  2. Farmington = +26.4%
  3. South Jordan = +15.8%
  4. Duchesne County = +15.0%
  5. Naples = +13.2%

Big Losers - Sales Tax Distributions October 2007 & 2008

  1. Utah County = -39.5%
  2. Woods Cross = -26.2%
  3. Weber County = -23.8%
  4. Lindon = -19.9%
  5. South Salt Lake = -18.5%

Source: Utah State Tax Commission Division of Revenue Accounting Sales Tax Distribution Final Distribution Report for October 2007 and October 2008, 10/27/08

Grants

    Improve Affordable Housing!

  • Affordable Housing Built Responsibly Grant Program
  • POSTED: 11/7/2008
  • FUNDING SOURCE: Home Depot Foundation
  • ELIGIBILITY: Nonprofit and public agencies
  • $ AVAILABLE: N.A.
  • GRANTS AVAILABLE: N.A.
  • MAX GRANT SIZE: $125,000
  • DEADLINE: LOIs due 11/15/08, 3/1/09 and 7/1/09
  • CONTACT INFORMATION: http://homedepotfoundation.org/
  • DESCRIPTION: Grants to support the production and preservation of affordable, efficient, and healthy housing.

    Make the Roads Safer!

  • 2009 Motor Carrier Safety Assistance Program (MCSAP) High Priority Grant Program
  • POSTED: 10/10/2008
  • FUNDING SOURCE: Dept. of Transportation
  • ELIGIBILITY: Nonprofits, cities, states, and counties
  • $ AVAILABLE: $15,000,000
  • GRANTS AVAILABLE: 75
  • MAX GRANT SIZE: N.A.
  • DEADLINE: 12/1/08
  • CONTACT INFORMATION: http://www07.grants.gov/search/search.do? &mode=VIEW&flag2006=false&oppId=43032
  • DESCRIPTION: Grants for innovative traffic safety programs, such as state data quality improvement, high visibility traffic enforcement, public information and education, enhancements to state training, safety and special research efforts, and the like.

    Economic Development Grants!

  • Economic Development Assistance Programs
  • POSTED: 10/1/2008
  • FUNDING SOURCE: EDA vELIGIBILITY: Public agencies (including cities), nonprofits, IHEs and Indian tribes
  • $ AVAILABLE: $216,927,372
  • GRANTS AVAILABLE: N.A.
  • MAX GRANT SIZE: N.A.
  • DEADLINE: 9/30/09; first come, first served
  • CONTACT INFORMATION: http://www07.grants.gov/search/search.do? &mode=VIEW&flag2006=false&oppId=42952
  • DESCRIPTION: Funding to plan and/or implement a wide variety of economic development projects, including community facilities and infrastructure, in economically distressed communities.

    Improve History Knowledge!

  • We the People Challenge Grants in United States History, Institutions, and Culture
  • POSTED: 10/8/2008
  • FUNDING SOURCE: National Endowment for the Humanities
  • ELIGIBILITY: Nonprofit and public agencies
  • $ AVAILABLE: N.A.
  • GRANTS AVAILABLE: N.A.
  • MAX GRANT SIZE: $1,000,000
  • DEADLINE: 2/3/09
  • CONTACT INFORMATION:
  • http://www07.grants.gov/search/search.do? &mode=VIEW&flag2006=false&oppId=43007
  • DESCRIPTION: Grants to secure long-term improvements in and support for humanities activities that
  • explore significant themes and events in American history.

STORE CLOSINGS COULD DOUBLE IN 2009

    Circuit City filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection from its more than 100,000 creditors today but gave no indication as to the company's future other than that it expects to continue to operate during the proceedings. The second-largest CE retailer in the U.S. suffered from a tighter credit market and a downturn in consumer spending on big-ticket items as well as losing market share to rival Best Buy and discounters such as Wal-Mart.

    Circuit City's pervious announcement that it was closing 155 stores, or 21 percent of its 721 U.S. locations, and planning to start lease renegotiations for others, will be echoed by numerous retailers throughout 2009, with the total number of stores shuttered in the United States expected to double the figure predicted for this year.

    By the end of 2008, store closing announcements will total 6,100, according to an October forecast from ICSC. But that figure might reach 14,000 next year, according to industry insiders. Store closings are already projected to be up 25 percent in 2008 compared to 2007, according to TNS Retail Forward, a Columbus, Ohio-based retail consulting firm.

    "My personal feeling is that we have not seen the worst of it," says Matthew Bordwin, managing director and national co-head of the real estate services team in the Melville, N.Y. office of KPMG Corporate Finance LLC, a middle-market investment bank.

    Landlords should brace themselves for tough times ahead, after already watching one tenant after another close stores, file for bankruptcy or announce liquidation. Now, even healthy retailers are getting rid of the bottom 10 percent to 15 percent of their real estate portfolios, says Andy Graiser, co-president of DJM Realty, LLC, a Melville, N.Y.-based real estate consulting and advisory firm. To keep vacancy rates in check, landlords will have to do everything in their power to help struggling chains survive when they themselves are being faced with a refinancing crisis.

    As a result of massive store closings, vacancy rates will spike next year, reaching 17.3 percent by the middle of 2009, according to Property & Portfolio Research, Inc., (PPR) a Boston-based property research and portfolio strategy firm. The firm bases its vacancy projections by comparing the changes in retail space and retail sales against a pre-determined benchmark of required sales per square foot in 54 U.S. markets. The figure includes information on neighborhood shopping centers, community centers, power centers, regional malls and lifestyle centers larger than 30,000 square feet.

    In 2009, PPR projects rents in the retail sector will decline 5.6 percent. The most viable option for landlords will be to try to hold on to existing tenants by reworking their lease terms, says Graiser.

    With the precipitous decline in consumer spending and the tightening credit, the industry should see a minimum of 10,000 store closings in 2009, says Howard Davidowitz, chairman of Davidowitz & Associates, Inc., a New York City-based retail consulting and investment banking firm. In the first half of next year, ICSC projects, store closing announcements will surpass the 3,100 mark.

    With holiday same-store sales growth forecasted to reach, at best, very low single digits, Davidowitz and Lois Huff, senior vice president with TNS Retail Forward, both say there will be a significant number of bankruptcies in the first quarter of 2009. Those chains that are teetering on the edge right now and need strong holiday sales numbers to stay afloat will likely be pushed into bankruptcy.

    During the 2008 holiday season, spending on apparel will experience zero percent growth compared with a 1.9 percent increase last year, according to TNS Retail Forward's projections, while spending on furniture items will fall 2.3 percent compared to a decline of 0.7 percent last year. The luxury sector will feel the pinch as well, though not to the same extent as midmarket retailers, says Davidowitz.

    "It's basically a foregone conclusion that it will be one of the more challenging seasons we've seen in many, many years," says Al Williams, principal with Excess Space Retail Services, Inc., a Huntington Beach, Calif.-based real estate disposition and restructuring firm. "Consumer spending has been down; if anything, by December, it could be slightly worse."

    Excess Space estimates the number of store closings for all of 2009 could increase 100 percent compared to this year, ranging from 12,000 to 14,000 stores. Chains that rely on discretionary spending, including apparel sellers, furniture stores, jewelers and restaurant operators, will be hardest hit, according to Graiser.

    This will be a particular concern for owners of class-B properties in secondary markets, which will experience the brunt of the closings, says Bernard J. Haddigan, managing director of the national retail group with Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services, an Encino, Calif.-based brokerage firm. If those centers face debt maturities next year, the owners might be forced to put in more equity into refinancing transactions to make up for rent shortfalls.

    But lenders will likely try their best to help owners keep occupancy levels up, says Graiser. "The lenders are not going to want to see these properties come back to them."

    Source: ICSC and Retail Traffic Online, 2008

Greetings!
  • ECONOMIC NOTES:
    • World Business Confidence
    • Global business confidence continues to evaporate, as sentiment fell again during the first week of November to another new record low. Sales strength, equipment investment, and office space demand hit new lows, and hiring intentions are consistent with monthly job losses in the U.S. of well over 150,000. Assessments regarding the economy more broadly and the outlook six months hence are grim. Sentiment is extraordinarily negative everywhere, including heretofore stalwart Asia. The global financial panic that hit in early September and has yet to abate has been a body blow to global business confidence. The global economy is now in recession according to the survey.
    • Factory Orders (M3)
    • Factory orders fell a much larger than expected 2.5% in September following a 4.3% decline in August. Orders excluding transportation were down 3.7%. The drop was mainly due to a large decline in nondurable goods orders, which were affected by falling prices of petroleum and other commodities. This decline brought manufacturing shipments down by 2.8%. Unfilled orders continued their upward climb, rising by 0.4% over the month. Inventories contracted by 0.7%.
    • Wholesale Trade (MWTR)
    • Wholesale inventories declined by 0.1% in September, below consensus expectations of a modest build, following a downwardly revised 0.6% gain in August. Sales also surprised on the downside, falling by 1.5% in September compared with a downwardly revised 1.6% decline in August. The inventory-to-sales ratio rose by two-hundredths of a point from an unrevised 1.10 to 1.12 in September.
    • Agricultural Prices
    • The All Farm Products Index of Prices Received by Farmers fell 5.8% in October from the previous month. The crop index fell 9.8% while the livestock index fell a much smaller 3.8%. Corn, soybeans, wheat and cattle fetched lower prices while sweet corn, broccoli, lettuce and eggs demanded higher prices. The index is now up 2.8% from the past year, indicating at least a temporary end to steep farm price increases. The food price index fell 5.3% on the month and was unchanged over the past year, indicating food price inflation is easing. Prices paid by farmers for the means of production also declined on the month, but by a much smaller 1.6%, and remain 15% above a year ago. Farmers are paying more for potash and phosphate materials, feed concentrates, and mixed fertilizer.
    • Employment Cost Index
    • Employer costs rose 0.7% in the second quarter, matching the gains of the first two quarters of the year. Once again, wages and salaries increased 0.7%, while benefit costs rose 0.6%. Labor compensation growth has remained moderate throughout the year. Tame wage pressures will reduce any inflationary concerns for the Fed, making Friday's report good news from a policy perspective.
    • Personal Income
    • Personal income rose 0.2% in September, more than expected, after jumping 0.4% in August. Income growth was affected by hurricane adjustments, additional unemployment insurance benefits, and stimulus related transfer payments. Wage growth was positive, despite the large job loss in the month. Spending fell 0.3% after being unchanged the prior month, in line with expectations. Real spending fell 0.4%. The core PCE deflator rose 0.2% while the top- line deflator rose 0.1%. The saving rate rose to 1.3% from 0.8% in August.
    • Productivity and Costs
    • Thursday's productivity numbers came in better than expected. Nonfarm productivity grew 1.1% (SAAR) in the third quarter, despite the contraction in GDP. Unit labor cost growth was stronger than expected, up 3.6%. Despite the strong growth in unit labor costs, inflation pressures from the labor market are not a concern.
    • Employment Situation
    • Payroll employment fell by 240,000, the 10th consecutive decline, and there was a net downward revision of 179,000 jobs to the prior two months. Payrolls in private industries plunged 263,000, the largest decline since November 2001. The real stunner in the report was a 0.4 of a percentage point increase in the unemployment rate to 6.5%, a figure above the peak reached in the last cyclical downturn. The economy has lost 1.2 million jobs this year, with about half the decline coming in the last three months as businesses respond to shrinking demand and tighter credit with deeper cost-cutting.
    • Jobless Claims
    • Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell by 4,000 to 481,000 for the week ending November 1. This was in line with expectations. This is further indication of growing slack in the labor market.
    • Major Job Cuts
    • Job cuts increased to the highest level in nearly five years in October. Company and non-profits announced cuts affecting 112,884 workers, 19% more than in September. Financial services and the automotive industry contributed to the increase.
    • Monster Employment Index
    • The Monster Employment Index plummeted 10 points in October, the largest month-ago decline since December. Signaling a sharp contraction in online recruitment advertising during the month, October's steep drop is consistent with a nation that is falling deeper into recession, and foreshadows a dismal jobs report for October
    • Construction Spending (C30)
    • Construction spending for September came in at $1.060 trillion, a decline of 0.3% from August and down 6.6% from September 2007 as total construction-particularly for residences-continues to decline in the wake of a declining economy. Private construction increased by 0.1% for the month, but private residential construction fell by 1.3% from August to September. Total public construction also fell for the month. With the financial crisis still restricting credit to new projects, total construction will most likely decline in the coming months also.
    • Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey
    • Credit conditions tightened during the third quarter across most of the major credit and loan categories reported in the Federal Reserve's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey. Nearly 85% of domestic banks reported tightening standards on commercial and industrial loans compared with 60% in the July survey. Lending standards for prime, subprime and nontraditional mortgages tightened, as did standards for credit card loans and other consumer loans.
    • Vehicle Sales - AutoData
    • U.S. vehicle sales fell sharply in October, to 10.5 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis. This pace of sales was last seen in the early 1980s. The industry has been the victim of the credit freeze as well as the slowdown in consumer demand. Every manufacturer experienced deep declines on a year-over-year basis.
    • Pending Home Sales
    • The pending home sales index fell 4.6% to 89.2 in September, a slightly worse than expected decline. The index value for August was not revised significantly. The index is up 1.6% from a year ago. September's decline bought back about half of last month's surprise leap, which suggests that demand for existing homes may soften during the next few months.
    • MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
    • n the week ending October 31, the MBA composite market index reversed course last week and fell to 379.9 in a week that also saw a jump in FRM contract rates. This is a fall of 20.3%, underlined by a steep fall in both the refinance and the purchase indices. The refinance index fell to 1,075.4, a 27.8% decrease. The purchase index decreased by 13.9% to 260.9.
    • Consumer Credit (G19)
    • Consumer credit balances expanded again in September, erasing the decline from the previous month. Credit increased by $6.9 billion in September to a total of $2.588 trillion. Both revolving and nonrevolving credit balances expanded.
    • Chain Store Sales
    • Chain store sales fell 0.9% in October, below the ICSC's previously released projections of flat growth. Falling gasoline prices support sales, but this is being more than offset by considerable drags from economic concerns and strained household finances. Drug stores, wholesale clubs and discounters are outperforming as spending increasingly shifts toward necessities.
    • Oil and Gas Inventories
    • Crude oil inventories were unchanged during the week ending October 31, according to the Energy Information Administration, falling short of expectations of a 1.1 million barrel build. Gasoline inventories rose by 1.1 million barrels. Distillate supplies rose by 1.2 million barrels. Refinery operating capacity was unchanged at 85.3%. Total domestic petroleum demand rose slightly from the prior week. This report should lend upward support to oil prices.
    • Natural Gas Storage Report
    • Working gas in underground storage increased by 12 billion cubic feet during the week ending October 31, well below consensus expectations of a 25 bcf build.

  • BONNEVILLE RESEARCH - Working with clients to make things happen!
  • ELECTION IS OVER

    When I entered this race it was clear we faced incredibly daunting odds.

    We have worked hard to run an honest, ethical and issues driven campaign.

    A few short months ago, no one imagined that we'd have accomplished all that we have.

    For most of this campaign, we were far behind, and we always knew our climb would be steep and challenging.

    In this campaign we tried hard to bring together Democrats, Independents and Republicans who are tired of the divisions and distractions that have clouded Utah politics; people who know that we can disagree without being disagreeable; people who understand that our system of government works better when we have an active and balanced two-party system.

    We have huge challenges ahead of us - and just as our immigrant ancestors pushed westward against an unforgiving wilderness seeking religious freedom and economic opportunities, we must continue to push against unjust and unbalanced elements of Utah government, and continue to demand comprehensive and meaningful change.

    It has been my honor and privilege to be a candidate for Utah Governor.

    My family was terrific, we had a great team of workers and volunteers, Josie Valdez was a fabulous Lt Governor candidate.

    All of you who believe that we are not as divided as our politics suggest; that we are one people; we are one state; we are one nation; and that together we can make this great state truly great.

    I look forward to continue to work together with you in the future to push for opportunity, prosperity, justice and equality for all Utahns.

    Thank you,

    Bob Springmeyer

    BONNEVILLE RESEARCH

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