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• World Business Confidence
• Global business confidence plunged last week to a record low. The financial panic has unnerved businesses, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, but sentiment has also turned sharply lower in South America and even in Asia. Hiring intentions and equipment and software investment collapsed to record lows. Assessments regarding the economy more broadly and the outlook six months hence also fell to new lows. Pricing power is evaporating. The global economy is taking a body blow from the financial turmoil.

• International Capital Flows
• Net foreign purchases of U.S. long-term securities rose to $14 billion in August from an upwardly revised $8.6 billion in July.

• Treasury Budget
• The unified budget deficit ended the fiscal year at $455 billion, well over double the $162 billion deficit seen in fiscal 2007. Receipts declined by 1.7%, falling for the first time since fiscal 2003. Outlays grew by 9.1% on the year, largely because of increases in expenditures for deposit insurance, tax rebate checks, and national defense. Wider deficits can be expected in the years ahead in light of the aid promised to the beleaguered financial system.

• Import and Export Prices
• Total business inventories increased 0.3% in August, below expectations for a stronger gain. Retail inventories were the only new data in this report, decreasing 0.6% and led by a 1.6% decline in retail auto inventories. The total I/S ratio increased to 1.27, retracing most of the declines since February.

• Consumer Price Index
• The top-line consumer price index stayed flat for September 2008 compared to August, while the year- ago percentage change was 4.9%, down from 5.4% in August. The core CPI increased by 0.1% for the month and is up by 2.5% from one year ago, about the same rate of increase as August. The 0% monthly inflation for the top-line CPI in September is slightly lower than expectations, and is symptomatic of both falling energy prices and depressed consumer demand as the recession worsens.

• Industrial Production
• Today's industrial production report was one of the worst ever. Industrial production plunged 2.8% in September and over the last three months contracted at a 14.5% annualized rate, the worst such reading since 1981. The strike at Boeing, which disrupted aircraft production, and hurricanes Gustav and Ike, which contributed to a large fall in crude oil extraction and petroleum refining, were responsible for a sizable part of the decline. However, these technical considerations merely added to widespread weakness in manufacturing that is consistent with recession-like behavior.

• California Manufacturing Survey
• The composite index fell sharply in the third quarter, declining to 45.1 from 50.3 in the second quarter. Production is now clearly declining in California, as it is in most parts of the country. The only bright spot was the high-tech industry, which reported a surprising increase in employment.

• Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI Survey
• The Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI composite index for September 2008 fell two percentage points to 48%. The index is at its lowest level since the 2001 recession, and points to a decline in manufacturing activity and expectations.

• Jobless Claims
• Initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 16,000 to 461,000 for the week ending October 11. This was below our expectations, but not surprising considering that claims are still falling as the effects of hurricanes Gustav and Ike are washing away. Claims remain elevated and indicative of a weak labor market.

• Quarterly Household Credit
• Household credit conditions continued to deteriorate in the third quarter. Dollar delinquency and default rates rose for most loan categories, although results were better on an account basis. Taking all household liabilities together, delinquency and default rates are now much higher than they were in the 2001 recession. Balance growth fell further in the quarter.

• NAHB Housing Market Index
• The NAHB housing market index took a turn for the worse in October, no doubt because of diminished homebuyer confidence in the wake of the continuing financial market collapse. The housing market index fell from 17 in September to 14 in October. All three of the components of the NAHB index fell for the month, especially for prospective six-month sales. The hopes that purchase activity would bottom out have thus been pushed forward by another few months.

• MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
• In the week ending October 10, the MBA market index rose for the second week in a row. The market composite increased by 5.1%, pushed by refinance applications, which increased 12.5%. The purchase index, however, fell slightly, losing 0.3%. As would be expected, the financial anxiety of the previous week has buoyed refinancing applications.

• Retail Sales (MARTS)
• Total retail sales fell 1.2% in September, somewhat more than expected, following a revised 0.4% decline in August (originally -0.3%) on widespread weakness. Sales excluding autos fell 0.6% after falling 0.9% in August (originally -0.7%). Gas stations and drug stores were the only major segments to post gains. Core sales fell 0.7%.

• Chain Store Sales
• Chain store sales grew 0.7% in the week ending October 11, the second consecutive gain and the largest weekly gain since July. However, year-over- year growth slipped to 1%, the weakest growth since May though only slightly below the results for the prior four weeks. Spending was reportedly still focused on staples.

• Oil and Gas Inventories
• Crude oil inventories rose by 5.6 million barrels for the week ending October 10, according to the Energy Information Administration, beating estimates of a 1.9 million barrel increase. Gasoline inventories rose by 7.0 million barrels, surpassing expectations of a 2.9 million barrel build. Distillate supplies fell by 0.5 million barrels, below expectations. Refinery operating capacity improved to 82.2% from 80.9%. Total domestic petroleum demand rose for the first time in six weeks. This report points to slightly lower oil prices.

• Natural Gas Storage Report
• Working gas in underground storage increased by 79 billion cubic feet during the week ending October 10, slightly below consensus expectations of an 82 bcf build.