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• World Business Confidence
• There has been no appreciable change in the dour mood of global businesses in the more than a year since the subprime financial shock struck. Confidence remains consistent with a global economy that is on the edge of recession. Businesses remain most pessimistic in the U.S., Europe and Japan, and most upbeat in the rest of Asia. The best recent news from the survey is the moderation in pricing pressures, which, while they remain high, are well off where they were just a few weeks ago. The worst news is that sales strength remains firmly negative, meaning that more businesses think sales are weakening than increasing.

• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
• The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose in September to its highest level since January, jumping 10.1 points from its August average. This was the biggest monthly increase since January 2004. It was led by a 13-point surge in expectations, the biggest increase since 1991 in that component of the index. Inflation expectations fell sharply because of declining energy prices.

• International Trade (FT900)
• The U.S. trade deficit widened to $62.2 billion in July. The consensus had expected a smaller widening, to $58 billion.

• Global Employment Outlook
• The global net employment outlook remains positive for the fourth quarter, but firms have scaled back hiring plans compared to a year ago, according to the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey of firms in 32 countries around the world. In the U.S., respondents expressed positive hiring intentions, but their responses were much weaker than in the previous four surveys. The net employment outlook in the fourth quarter appears to be the weakest in Europe, while demand for labour in the America's, Middle East and Asia remains strong, albeit weaker than a year ago.

• Import and Export Prices
• Import prices declined a larger than expected 3.7% in August. Declines in petroleum and industrial metals were the main catalysts behind this sharp drop. Import prices are expected to moderate over the next few months, allowing the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates lower for longer.

• Treasury Budget
• The unified budget deficit for August was $112 billion, smaller than the CBO's estimate of $115 billion. The federal government has run a deficit of $483 billion through the first 11 months of fiscal 2008; this is 76% larger than the deficit at the same point in fiscal 2007. After a few years of improvement, the federal budget deficit is again widening because of the poor economy, strong spending growth, and the economic stimulus package.

• Quarterly Services Survey
• the second quarter of 2008, hospital and nursing care industry revenues increased by 7.2% from one year ago. The professional, scientific and technical services industry expanded revenues by 6.1%, administrative and support services industry revenues grew 3.0%, and information industry revenues increased by 2.4%.

• Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
• More evidence of labor market deterioration comes from the JOLTS report. In July, 4.1 million workers were hired, while 4.3 million workers left their jobs. The hire rate fell to 3% from 3.2%, but the separations rate fell also, from 3.2% to 3.1%. The number of job openings declined to 3.4 million from 3.5 million in June. Although separations remain low, employers are becoming increasingly wary about taking on new workers.

• Wholesale Trade (MWTR)
• Wholesale inventories gained by 1.4% in July, surpassing consensus expectations, following a downwardly revised 0.9% gain in June. Sales unexpectedly declined by 0.3% in July compared with an upwardly revised 3.0% rise in June. The inventory- to-sales ratio rose by one-hundredth of a point from an unrevised 1.06 to 1.07 in July.

• Business Inventories (MTIS)
• Total business inventories increased 1.1% in July, exceeding expectations for a milder gain. Retail inventories were the only new data in this report, increasing 1.5%, led by a large gain at retail auto dealers. The aggregate I/S ratio increased slightly but still hold the gradual downward trend of the past year and a half as businesses try to pare back inventories amid weak economic conditions.

• Producer Price Index
• Producer prices for finished goods finally gave up a bit of ground in August, falling by 0.9% following a 1.2% increase in July. The decline in top-line producer prices was largely the result of less expensive energy products. Prices for finished energy products fell by 4.6% on the month. When food and energy prices are excluded, core inflation was a trend-like 0.2%. Core inflation among intermediate producer products remained rapid at 1.7%.

• Consumer Credit (G19)
• Consumer credit outstanding reached a total of $2.587 trillion, after increasing by $4.6 billion in July. This was the smallest monthly gain so far this year. Demand for nonrevolving credit eased significantly, although growth among revolving lines of credit was also weaker.

• Jobless Claims
• Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 6,000 to 445,000 for the week ending September 6. This was close to expectations. Part of the reason claims are elevated relative to several months ago is because of temporary factors including the Labor Day holiday and perhaps some impact from Hurricane Gustav. Although the message is clouded by these factors, it is clear that the labor market remains very fragile.

• Pending Home Sales
• Pending home sales declined 3.2% in July to 86.5. This decrease only slightly exceeded our expectations for a more mild decline. With rising mortgage rates in July, and thus declining affordability, conditions for homebuyers have deteriorated somewhat in recent months.

• MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
• The mortgage market continued last week's rally as contract rates fell substantially. The market composite increased by 9.5% from last week's total for the week ending September 5. Most of this came from a 15.4% surge in the refinance index as contract rates fell, but the purchase index also increased by a healthy 6.4%. The large successive increases in the market indices imply that borrowers are starting to act on the perception that house prices have bottomed out.

• Retail Sales (MARTS)
• Total retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.3% in August, following a revised 0.5% decline in July (originally 0.1%) as a growth in sales at auto dealers failed to offset declines at gasoline stations and several other segments. Sales excluding autos fell 0.7% after gaining 0.3% in July (originally 0.4%). Grocery store sales also grew strongly, while large declines were posted by gas stations, building supply stores, nonstore retailers, electronics stores, and department stores. Core sales fell 0.4%.

• Chain Store Sales
• Chain store sales slipped 0.1% in the week ending September 6, the first decline in four weeks, according to the ICSC. Year-over-year growth slipped to 1.9%, the weakest in three months. The fading lift from tax rebates is offsetting the support from small declines in gasoline prices.

• Oil and Gas Inventories
• Crude oil inventories declined by 5.9 million barrels for the week ending September 5, according to the Energy Information Administration, in contrast with expectations of a 4.4 million barrel decline. Gasoline inventories fell by 6.5 million barrels, more than estimates of a 4.2 million barrel decline. Distillate supplies fell by 1.2 million barrels, smaller than the expected 2.7 million barrel decline. Refinery operating capacity plummeted to 78.3%. Total domestic petroleum demand fell sharply. This mixed report is bearish on balance.

• Natural Gas Storage Report
• Working gas in underground storage increased by 58 billion cubic feet during the week ending September 5, slightly above consensus expectations of a 54 bcf build.