Check out our Bonneville Research Website!

www.BonnevilleResearch.com

• World Business Confidence
• Global business sentiment has been more or less consistent with a global economy that is near recession since the subprime financial shock hit over a year ago. At times confidence has been weaker such as early this spring, and, at other times stronger, such as this summer when the tax rebate checks were being mailed, but sentiment is currently in the middle of the range that has prevailed over the past year. The survey did take on a slightly more upbeat tone at the end of August as pricing pressures abated a bit, sales strengthened somewhat and hiring firmed modestly. Businesses remain the most dour in the U.S., Europe and Japan, and the most upbeat in the rest of Asia.

• ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort
• After dipping slightly last week, confidence improved this week. According to the ABC News/Washington Post consumer confidence index, sentiment gained 3 points to -47 for the week ended August 31. Despite the easing in consumer sentiment, the index remains at a level consistent with a recession.

• Productivity and Costs
• Productivity growth for the second quarter was revised sharply higher and was well above the consensus forecast. Nonfarm business productivity grew 4.3% (SAAR), compared with 2.2% in the preliminary release; the consensus was for 3.3% growth. The revision was due largely to an upward revision to output growth. Growth in unit labor costs also saw a large revision; they fell 0.5% (SAAR) in the second quarter, compared with the previously reported 1.3% increase. This was close to the consensus expectation for a 0.3% decline. Productivity growth is good despite the weak economy, and no inflationary pressures are coming from the labor market.

• Factory Orders (M3)
• New orders for manufactured goods rose 1.3% in July following a 2.1% increase in June. The increase was larger than consensus forecasts expected. Shipments rose 2.1%, also a larger than expected gain. Unfilled orders and inventories rose by 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively. Durable goods orders rose 1.3%, unchanged from the previously released figure, and nondurable goods were up 1.2% over the month.

• Semiconductor Billings
• Global semiconductor sales rose 2.8% in July to $22.18 billion on a three-month moving average basis. If not for falling prices for memory products, sales growth would be stronger. Sales are now 7.6% higher than in July of last year, with gains seen in all regions of the world except the Americas.

• Monster Employment Index
• The nation's employers posted more job advertisements in August than during July. The Monster Employment Index rose in August to 159, a 1.3% increase from a month ago. However, having declined in the preceding three months, the index is down 14.5% from a year ago.

• Jobless Claims
• Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 15,000 to 444,000 for the week ending August 30. This was a move away from expectations. Claims had declined in the three previous weeks. This rise may signal further loosening in the labor market, but more likely it is just more volatility, considering the count preceded Labor Day.

• Job Cuts
• Job cuts announcements have been trending higher this year, but they dipped to 88,736 in August. This is up 11.7% from a year ago and on par with the average for the past three months. Overall, the report was similar to those on employment seen so far this year. The labor market is weak, but not to the degree normally seen in recessions.

• Construction Spending (C30)
• Construction spending fell in July 2008 in comparison with the revised June figures. Overall residential construction spending was down 0.6% in July compared with June, and was down by 4.8% in comparison with construction spending in July 2007. A slight increase in public construction was more than offset by declining private construction spending, especially in residential structures.

• MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
• The mortgage market had a better week as all of the market composite indices improved by August 29. The market index finished up by 7.5%, and for once the bulk of this increase was caused by an improvement in the purchase index, which increased by 10.5%. The refinance index also improved by 2.1% from the previous week. Given lower inflation and a moderate downward trend in contract rates, this might be the start of the mortgage market's long climb up from the bottom.

• Chain Store Sales
• Chain store sales rose 1.7% in August, slightly below expectations. Gasoline prices continued to support growth, lifting sales at warehouse clubs. Discounters and other value-oriented retailers, particularly Wal-Mart, outperformed as financially pressed consumers focus on necessities and lower- priced goods.

• Oil and Gas Inventories
• Crude oil inventories declined by 1.9 million barrels for the week ending August 29, according to the Energy Information Administration, in contrast with expectations of a modest build. Gasoline inventories fell by 1.0 million barrels, less than estimates of a 1.4 million barrel decline. Distillate supplies fell by 0.4 million barrels, contrasting expectations of a 0.5 million barrel build. Refinery operating capacity rose strongly to 88.7%. Total domestic petroleum demand rose strongly. This report is bullish.

• Natural Gas Storage Report
• Working gas in underground storage increased by 90 billion cubic feet during the week ending August 29, slightly above consensus expectations of an 88 bcf build.