Monday Report
Weber County Residential Defaults September 2, 2008


Bonneville Research Website

ECONOMIC NOTES:


 

SCORECARD

Weber County Residential Defaults July 2007 to July 2008

ZIPCity# of DefaultsTotal Value of DefaultsAverage Default Value
84404Farr West131$16,366,407 $124,934
84067Roy93 $13,494,001$145,097
84401Ogden 77$8,604,019 $111,741
84403Ogden 76$10,183,782 $133,997
84405Ogden 39$22,088,706 $566,377
84414North Ogden21$4,509,273 $214,727
84310Eden 11 $4,228,807$384,437
84315Hooper 11$2,284,614 $207,692
84317Huntsville 9$4,284,683 $476,076
Totals 468$86,044,292 $183,855

Source: NewReach Builders Decision, August 2008

4 areas representing 377 homes or 81% of the total have an average value of under $150,000

Weber County Residential Defaults July 2007 to July 2008

ZIPCity# of DefaultsTotal Value of DefaultsAverage Default Value
84404Farr West131$16,366,407 $124,934
84067Roy93 $13,494,001$145,097
84401Ogden 77$8,604,019 $111,741
84403Ogden 76$10,183,782 $133,997

Source: NewReach Builders Decision, August 2008


3 areas representing 59 homes or 36% of the total amount of default have an average value over $384,000!

Weber County Residential Defaults July 2007 to July 2008

ZIPCity# of DefaultsTotal Value of DefaultsAverage Default Value
84405Ogden 39$22,088,706 $566,377
84310Eden11 $4,228,807$384,437
84317Huntsville 9$4,284,683 $476,076

Source: NewReach Builders Decision, August 2008


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Greetings!

Weber County Residential Defaults

  • Where are they?
  • How many?
  • Just the rich?
  • Just in the north?
  • Just in the south?

Bob Springmeyer

Bonneville Research


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  • ECONOMIC NOTES:
    • GDP
    • The GDP growth rate in the second quarter was revised upward to 3.3% from 1.9%, exceeding expectations. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 0.9%. The big upward revisions to the headline number was accompanied by a large revision to the components: Final sales (GDP less inventories) are now reported to have increased at a 4.8% annual rate, the fastest rate in more than two years. The better than expected outcome overall does not change our view that the economy is weakening, with the beneficial effects of rebate checks and foreign demand fading fast. Corporate profits edged down for the fourth straight quarter, falling twice as fast as in the first three months of the year.
    • The Conference Board Leading Indicators
    • The Conference Board index of consumer confidence rebounded further in August to 56.9 from July's 51.9 (unrevised). The expectations component of the index was responsible for the gain, rising to 52.8 from 42.7. The gauge of the present situation fell to 63.2 from 65.8. Assessments of current labor markets conditions deteriorated further.
    • Durable Goods (Advance)
    • New orders for durable goods rose 1.3% in July, surpassing expectations for only a slight increase. Core capital goods orders also surprised on the upside, increasing 2.6% over the month. Shipments were up 2.5% and unfilled orders and inventories each increased by 0.8%. The report is a good sign that business investment is holding up despite the slowing economy and tight credit conditions.
    • Bankruptcy Filings
    • Growth in personal bankruptcy filings accelerated in the second quarter in response to the weak credit conditions in the economy. The number of filings remains low, but are still impacted by reforms enacted in late 2005. Filings were 31% above last year, but remained nearly 50% below the second quarter of 2005, before reform legislation and in a better credit environment. Business bankruptcies appear to have returned to near equilibrium levels, with filings up 45% from last year and 11.5% over the past three years.
    • Jobless Claims
    • Initial claims for unemployment insurance declined 10,000 to 425,000 for the week ending August 23. This is in line with expectations and is the third consecutive decline. Claims have been backing off the high level reached late last month and early this month, which was due to an increased awareness of UI benefits due to the recent benefit extension.
    • Case-Shiller Monthly Home Price Indices
    • Both the 10-city and 20-city composite S&P/Case- Shiller house price indices declined in June from May. The 10-city composite fell by 0.6% and the 20-city composite fell by 0.5%. Both declined by record year- ago rates in June. The 10-city composite was down 17% over the past year, and the 20-city composite was down 15.9%. Prices were below year-ago levels in all 20 metro areas.
    • New-Home Sales (C25)
    • The new-home market remains quite weak but is stabilizing, according to Census Bureau data. In July, home sales increased by 2.4% m/m; however, the Census Bureau revised June sales significantly downward. July sales came in at 515,000 annualized units, which was 3% below the sales initially reported for June. Other indicators also remain weak. The median house price is declining, months on the market are rising, and months of inventory remain high.
    • OFHEO Purchase-Only House Price Index
    • The OFHEO purchase-only house price index held steady in June as a few key regional markets rallied. The slowing of house price declines could be an indication that the housing market is reaching bottom. Nevertheless, prices are still down by 4.8% compared with June 2007, and only in the West South Central region are house prices higher than they were one year ago.
    • MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
    • The MBA market composite indices increased by a slight amount for the week ending August 22, while contract rates also decreased by a small amount. The market index finished up by 0.5%, the purchase index finished up by 0.6%, and the refinance index finished up by 0.3%. Overall the demand side of the mortgage market remains weak, but has at least held steady thanks to the lack of recent bad news about financial losses.
    • Chain Store Sales
    • Chain store sales inched up 0.2% in the week ending August 23, the second consecutive small gain following a larger 1.1% decline, according to the ICSC. Year-over-year growth slipped to 2.3% the weakest in six weeks. The ICSC noted an improvement in store traffic supported by lower gasoline prices, offset by unfavorably cool weather in the week.
    • Oil and Gas Inventories
    • Crude oil inventories unexpectedly declined by 0.1 million barrels for the week ending August 22, according to the Energy Information Administration, in contrast with expectations of a 1.1 million barrel build. Gasoline inventories fell by 1.2 million barrels, less than estimates of a 2.5 million barrel decline. Distillate supplies were unchanged; expectations were for a modest build. Refinery operating capacity rose strongly to 87.3%. Total domestic petroleum was little changed. This report is bullish.
    • Natural Gas Storage Report
    • Working gas in underground storage rose by a robust 102 billion cubic feet during the week ending August 22, well above consensus expectations of a 84 bcf build. However, growing concerns that Tropical Storm Gustav will limit natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico over the next few weeks will limit downward movement in prices.

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    Note from Bob Springmeyer:

    As some of you may know I am the Democratic Candidate for Utah Governor.

    I chose retired SBA official and long-time community volunteer Josie Valdez to run as my lieutenant governor.

    We now have a staff, lawn signs, bumper stickers available.

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    Bob Springmeyer

    The good education, good jobs, good health and good government candidate for Utah Governor

    Election Date: November 4th, 2008

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