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Utah Labor Market Indicators - July 2008 (June/May/Apr/Mar/Feb/Jan 08)

Who is gaining jobs? - Jan - Jul 2008

Who are losing jobs? - Jan - Jul 2008

• Utah -2,308 -1.3%
• Washington -677 -1.3%
• Davis -180 -0.2%
• Juab -149 -4.1%
• Iron -109 -0.7%
• Wasatch -103 -1.5%

What jobs are we losing? - July 2008 - Higher Wage Jobs

What jobs are we gaining? - July 2008 - Lower Wage Jobs

Source: Utah Dept of Workforce Services, 8/13/08

• Global Business Confidence
• The global economy is just barely skirting recession according to the global business confidence survey. Sentiment remains weak and fragile and consistent with recession in the U.S., Europe and Japan. The survey results suggest that the Asian economy continues to post growth that is near its potential. Global sentiment isn't as negative as it was in the spring, but businesses are notably worried about sales and their broad assessments of present conditions and the outlook into 2009 remain firmly negative. Pricing pressures remain very elevated.

• Risk of Recession
• The Moody's Economy.com probability of recession fell modestly to 35% in July, compared to June's 40%. The economy's problems are clearest in the job market. Although recent data suggest that the downturn is not worsening, it is too early to sound the all-clear as the global economy is weakening and financial markets are not operating properly. The boost from the stimulus checks is fading, which darkens the outlook for the second half. Although inflation is elevated a fragile economy will keep the Federal Reserve from increasing interest rates until 2009.

• The Conference Board Leading Indicators
• The Conference Board index of leading indicators plunged 0.7% in July, the second decline in the past three months. The index was pulled down by a steep drop in residential building permits, payback for a change in building codes that pulled new multifamily construction forward into June. If not for this drag, the leading index would have fallen 0.2% last month. A weakening path for the leading index reinforces the view that a second slowdown is taking hold of the economy.

• Treasury International Capital Flows
• Net long-term TIC flows in June declined further to $53.4 billion from $83.2 billion in May, reflecting financial market angst in June. Net foreign purchases of U.S. financial assets fell a little short of the June U.S. trade deficit, which narrowed to $56.8 billion. However, the current environment is more favorable for the U.S. dollar so the June numbers should not be read as a negative for the U.S. dollar outlook.

• Industrial Production
• Industrial production rose a better than expected 0.2% in July. Manufacturing and mining output improved during the month, while utilities production declined sharply. Capacity utilization inched up to 79.9%, but the trend is consistent with rising resource slack. Overall, the report was similar to the industrial production reports seen so far this year: A soft reading, though not of the magnitude normally seen in recessions.

• Mass Layoffs
• The incidence of layoffs involving at least 50 workers from a single establishment in July was 1,512, compared with 1,643 in June. They involved 151,171 workers, compared with 165,697 in June. All numbers are seasonally adjusted. This was the second straight month that the number of workers involved in mass layoffs had fallen.

• Internet Sales (E-Commerce Sales)
• Retail e-commerce sales picked up in the second quarter and advanced 2.9% q/q, compared to 0.3% (revised) in the first quarter. Online spending by consumers is growing again despite a number of adverse macroeconomic factors, the most notable being the deepening housing correction and moderation in consumer spending.

• PPI
• Producer prices for finished goods rose by a rapid 1.2% in July, following a 1.8% increase in June. Inflation was led once again by large price increases among energy products. However, even when energy products are excluded, core inflation for finished goods in July was stronger than in any other month over the past year. Price increases accelerated at earlier stages of processing as well. Core prices for intermediate products rose by 2%, while core prices for crude materials rose by 3.4%.

• Jobless Claims
• Initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits decreased 13,000 to 432,000 for the week ending August 9. This decline is greater than what had been expected. Although initial claims remain high, this week's decline may be a sign that the effect of the extension of UI benefits on claims is beginning to wear off.

• New Residential Construction (C20)
• Residential construction remains weak, with the Census Bureau reporting 965,000 housing starts for July. Starts were down by 11% from June and by 36% from July 2007. Permits were also back down near a cyclical low, after the June surge.

• NAHB Housing Market Index
• The overall NAHB housing market index remained unchanged from July to August. The present single- family sales index increased slightly, as did expected six-month sales. Traffic of prospective buyers remained unchanged. Given the record low numbers that the NAHB index finds itself in at the moment, the August index numbers could possibly indicate that housing demand has reached bottom.

• MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
• Mortgage demand took another tumble in the week ending August 15 as the market composites fell, though most of the fall was from refinancing contracts. The composite market index fell by 1.5%, reflecting mostly a 3.7% decrease in the refinance index. The purchase index fell slightly by 0.4%. Mortgage demand remains low as home prices fall and major lenders such as Fannie and Freddie accumulate asset losses.

• Chain Store Sales
• Chain store sales inched up 0.1% in the week ending August 16, reversing little of the prior week's 1.1% decline, according to the ICSC. Year-over-year growth slipped to 2.4% the weakest in five weeks. In light of falling gasoline prices and favorable weather, the ICSC blamed the distraction of the Olympics for the weakness, although reduced support from tax rebates are playing a role as well.

• Oil and Gas Inventories
• Crude oil inventories rose massively by 9.4 million barrels for the week ending August 15, according to the Energy Information Administration, crushing expectations of an 0.8 million barrel build. Gasoline inventories sank sharply by 6.2 million barrels, far surpassing estimates of a 2.7 million barrel decline. Distillate supplies rose by 0.5 million barrels, in line with expectations. Refinery operating capacity fell to 85.7%. Total domestic petroleum demand fell. This report is bearish.

• Natural Gas Storage Report
• Working gas in underground storage rose by 88 billion cubic feet during the week ending August 15, above consensus expectations of an 82 bcf build. Thursday's report will not send prices much lower as risks remain weighted heavily to the upside.