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• Global Business Confidence
• According to the global business confidence survey, developed economies including the U.S., Europe and Japan are contracting moderately, while most developing economies are expanding moderately. On net, the global economy is growing, albeit barely. This is an improvement since late April, however, when global business confidence fell to a record low. The most measurable improvement has been among real estate operations, financial services companies, and business service firms. These firms are still dour, but not nearly so. As has been the case for the past year, the most negative responses are to the broad questions concerning present conditions and the outlook. Pricing pressures spurted higher again last week and are approaching a new record high.

• Treasury Budget
• The unified budget surplus for June was $51 billion, on par with the CBO's preliminary estimate. The federal government has run a deficit of $269 billion through the first nine months of fiscal 2008; this is 122% larger than the deficit at the same point in fiscal 2007. After a few years of improvement the federal budget deficit is again widening due to the poor economy, strong spending growth, and the economic stimulus package.

• Import and Export Prices
• For the second consecutive month, the import price index rose 2.6%. May's gain was revised higher to 2.6% (previously 2.3%). Import price gains were led by petroleum prices, which rose 7.4%. Nonpetroleum imports rose 0.9% compared with May's 0.7%. Export prices were up 1% following a 0.4% increase in May. The increase in import prices was larger than expected by forecasters and will keep the Federal Reserve on the sidelines through the summer.

• International Trade (FT900)
• The nominal U.S. trade deficit in goods and services surprisingly narrowed by 1.2% in May. The U.S. trade deficit came in at $59.8 billion, $0.7 billion less than April's revised $60.5 billion, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In May, both exports and imports increased to record highs, though exports increased slightly more than imports. The trade deficit with China, however, increased to $21 billion, after recording its lowest point in two years in March. Crude oil prices increased in May by $9.47 a barrel, the largest one-month increase in history, which in turn increased the nation's total import bill for oil and petroleum products to $40.4 billion despite a lower volume.

• US Consumer Confidence
• According to the ABC News/Washington Post consumer comfort index, sentiment rose 2 points to - 41 in the week ending July 6. The index has increased 10 points from its record low and is at its highest since April. The modest gain in sentiment is being driven by the stimulus checks, which are putting much- needed cash in the pockets of consumers. The recent improvement is encouraging, but this level of pessimism points toward a gradual recovery in the economy.

• Jobless Claims
• Surprisingly, initial jobless claims fell by 58,000 to 346,000. This was the largest one-week drop since 2005, and invites some skepticism about its validity. Expect this improvement to be reversed in coming weeks, as other indicators clearly show that the labor market is still fragile.

• Consumer Credit (G19)
• Consumer credit totaled $2.571 trillion in May, an increase of $7.8 billion. Rapid growth of revolving credit accounted for most of this month's increase, while nonrevolving lines of credit increased more slowly.

• Pending Home Sales
• The pending home sales index declined in May by 4.7% to 84.7, a retreat from April's upwardly revised reading of 88.9. The decline took back over half of April's surge. The index is about 14% below its year- ago level, evidence that demand for existing homes has yet to show real signs of improving.

• MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
• Demand in mortgage markets rallied for a second straight week in the week ending July 4. The market composite index increased by 7.5% in the last week, while the purchase and refinance indices increased by 6.7% and 8.7%, respectively. For the first time in a while, the increase in applications may have pushed interest rates up instead of higher interest rates reducing demand.

• Chain Store Sales
• Chain store sales rose 4.3% in June, well ahead of expectations, thanks to spending of tax rebates. Rising gasoline prices also played a role in the strength, lifting sales at warehouse clubs as did favorable weather. Discounters performed particularly well as financially pressed consumers focused on necessities and lower priced goods.

• Natural Gas Storage Report
• Working gas in underground storage rose by 90 billion cubic feet during the week ending July 4, below consensus expectations of a 95 bcf rise in inventories. At 2,208 bcf, working gas in underground storage was 389 bcf lower than a year ago and 70 bcf below the five-year average for this time of year.

• Oil and Gas Inventories
• Crude oil inventories fell by 5.9 million barrels for the week ending July 4, according to the Energy Information Administration, far exceeding expectations of a 1.8 million barrel decline. Gasoline inventories rose by 0.9 million barrels, contradicting consensus expectations of a 0.2 million barrel decline. Distillate supplies rose by 1.8 million barrels, in line with expectations. Refinery operating capacity was unchanged at 89.2%. This report should send oil prices higher.

Source: Economy.com 2008