Monday Report
July 7th, 2008


Bonneville Research Website

UTAH ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT

ECONOMIC NOTES:


 

SCORECARD

Independence Day

Now that the parades, fireworks, BBQ's and celebrations of "the 4th" are over, please remember the following words:

  1. The preamble of the Declaration of Independence - declaring independence from the Kingdom of Great Britain.

    We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.

    Thomas Jefferson

  2. John F. Kennedy's Inauguration speech:

    To those old allies whose cultural and spiritual origins we share, we pledge the loyalty of faithful friends. United, there is little we cannot do in a host of cooperative ventures. Divided, there is little we can do - for we dare not meet a powerful challenge at odds and split asunder.

    And so, my fellow Americans: ask not what your country can do for you - ask what you can do for your country.

    My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.

    John F. Kennedy

  3. Martin Luther King, Jr. "I Have a Dream" speech:

    Let us not wallow in the valley of despair, I say to you today, my friends.

    And so even though we face the difficulties of today and tomorrow, I still have a dream. It is a dream deeply rooted in the American dream.

    I have a dream that one day this nation will rise up and live out the true meaning of its creed: "We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal."

    I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character.

    I have a dream today!

    I have a dream that one day every valley shall be exalted, and every hill and mountain shall be made low, the rough places will be made plain, and the crooked places will be made straight; "and the glory of the Lord shall be revealed and all flesh shall see it together."

    With this faith, we will be able to hew out of the mountain of despair a stone of hope. With this faith, we will be able to transform the jangling discords of our nation into a beautiful symphony of brotherhood. With this faith, we will be able to work together, to pray together, to struggle together, to go to jail together, to stand up for freedom together, knowing that we will be free one day.

    And this will be the day -- this will be the day when all of God's children will be able to sing with new meaning:

    • My country 'tis of thee, sweet land of liberty, of thee I sing.
    • Land where my fathers died, land of the Pilgrim's pride,
    • From every mountainside, let freedom ring!

    And if America is to be a great nation, this must become true.

    Martin Luther King, Jr.

The American Dream is the bedrock of our economic success, it is the bedrock of our social success, and it is the bedrock of our being a community.

  • having a job that pays enough to support a family;
  • having affordable quality health care;
  • owning your own home;
  • being able to ensure your children have the opportunity to succeed; and
  • having a secure and dignified retirement.

It's a dream shared in big cities and small towns; across races, regions and religions - that if you work hard, you can support a family; that if you get sick, there will be health care you can afford; that you can retire with the dignity and security and respect that you have earned; that your kids can get a good education, and young people can go to college even if they're not rich.

That is our common hope across this country.

That is the American Dream.

Bob Springmeyer

Note: I have made what I hope are minor edits by only presenting the beginning of the Preamble and parts of the Kennedy speech and not including some paragraphs in the King Speech


THIS WEEKS LEADS:

  • Eileen Fisher and Eileen Fisher Outlets
  • Eileen Fisher, Inc. trades as Eileen Fisher and Eileen Fisher Outlets at 41 locations throughout AZ, CA, CT, FL, IL, MA, MI, NJ, NY, OR, WA and Washington, DC.
  • The stores, offering women's apparel, occupy spaces of 1,000 sq.ft. to 2,500 sq.ft. in upscale malls, lifestyle centers and downtown areas.
  • Growth opportunities are sought nationwide during the coming 18 months.
  • For more information, contact
    • Karen Gray,
    • Eileen Fisher, Inc.,
    • Two Bridge Street, Irvington, NY 10533;
    • Web site: www.eileenfisher.com.
  • Bon Worth
  • Bon Worth, Inc. trades as Bon Worth at 310 locations nationwide.
  • The women's apparel shops occupy spaces of 1,500 sq.ft. to 2,500 sq.ft. in outlet and strip centers and regional malls.
  • Plans call for 10 to 20 openings throughout the existing market, excluding the western coast, during the coming 18 months.
  • Typical leases run one to three years.
  • Preferred cotenants include supermarkets.
  • Preferred demographics include a population of 50,000 within five miles.
  • For more information, contact
    • Bill Hale,
    • Bon Worth, Inc.,
    • PO Box 2890, Hendersonville, NC 28793;
    • Web site: www.bonworth.com.
  • Windsor
  • Windsor operates 43 locations throughout AZ, CA, CT, MI, NJ, NV, NY and TX.
  • The stores, offering upscale junior apparel and accessories, occupy spaces of 3,300 sq.ft. to 4,200 sq.ft. in malls.
  • Growth opportunities are sought throughout AZ, CA, FL and TX during the coming 18 months, with representation by Zorehkey & Associates.
  • Typical leases run 12 years.
  • A vanilla shell and specific improvements are required.
  • Preferred cotenants include junior fashion apparel retailers, Macy's and Nordstrom.
  • Preferred demographics include a population of 200,000 within four miles earning $60,000 as the average household income.
  • Major competitors include Bebe and Ann Taylor Loft.
  • For more information, contact
    • Ed Zorehkey, Zorehkey & Associates,
    • 30021 Tomas, Suite 300, Rancho Santa Margarita, CA 92688.
  • Lacoste
  • Lacoste operates 60 locations nationwide.
  • The stores, offering apparel, accessories, footwear and fragrances, occupy spaces of 1,300 sq.ft. to 1,800 sq.ft. in malls and urban/downtown areas.
  • Plans call for eight openings nationwide during the coming 18 months, with representation by The Greenberg Group.
  • Typical leases run 10 years.
  • Preferred cotenants include high-end department stores, Coach, Apple, Polo and J. Crew.
  • For more information, contact
    • Steven Greenberg,
    • The Greenberg Group,
    • 1200 West Broadway, Hewlett, NY 11557;
    • Web site: www.lacoste-usa.com.

Greetings!

Now that the parades, fireworks, BBQ's and celebrations of "the 4th" are over, please take a minute to remember what we are celebrating.

Bob Springmeyer

Bonneville Research


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  • UTAH ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT
  • UTAH ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT - First Eleven Months FY2008 YTD

    Utah State Government

    • Sales and Use Taxes (Gen Gov't) -4.1% (-$69.2M)
    • Individual Income Taxes (Public Education) +1.7%
    • Corporate Franchise Taxes (Gen Gov't) -5.1%
    • Motor Fuel Taxes (Transportation) -1.4%
    • Severance Taxes (Gen Gov't) +4.7.1%

      Local Government

    • Sales and Use Taxes +1.7%
    • Transient Room Tax +7.5%
    • Tourism, Recreation, Cultural, Convention +9.3%
    • Municipal Telecommunications License +8.0%
    • Municipal Energy Sales & Use +36.5%
    • Emergency Services Phone Charge +3.1%
    • Public Transit +24.4%
    • County Option Fixed Guideway +679.7% ($15.15M)

    Source: Utah State Tax Commission, TC -23 6/11/08


    Second Largest Employer in Sanpete County to Suspend Operations

    High feed prices caused by subsidizing corn for "biofuels" is driving a major Utah turkey production company to temporarily suspend its operations this winter.

    The Moroni Feed Co., an owner of Norbest turkey brand, plans to make sweeping layoffs in December at its various facilities.

    The layoffs will affect Sevier and Juab counties, but Sanpete County will be hurt most.

    Some reports indicate as many as 675 layoffs will occur. The company hopes to be back in full swing by March 2009.

    Source: Maroni Feed


  • ECONOMIC NOTES:
    • Global Business Confidence
    • Global businesses remain very nervous. But despite bad economic news, sentiment has improved in recent weeks. Confidence hit a record low in late April, and while it remains weak and fragile it has noticeably firmed. The most measurable improvement has been among real estate operations, financial services companies, and business service firms. These firms are still dour, but not nearly so. While pricing pressures are elevated, they did recede last week for the second straight week. U.S. businesses are also feeling better, although their confidence remains consistent with a contracting economy. Asian businesses remain the most upbeat while European businesses are now the most pessimistic.
    • Consumer Confidence
    • According to the ABC News/Washington Post consumer comfort index, sentiment was unchanged at -43 in the week ending June 29. While confidence is showing signs of stabilizing, it is at a level consistent with a severe downturn. Still, consumer confidence accurately captures the health of household finances, which are under considerable stress.
    • Semiconductor Billings
    • Global semiconductor sales rose by 2.8% in May to $21.83 billion on a three-month moving average basis. As such, sales growth matched seasonal norms. Sales are now 7.5% higher than in May of last year, with gains seen in all regions of the world.
    • Employment Situation
    • Employment declined by 62,000 in June, in line with consensus expectations. The labor market continues to contract at a moderate, steady pace. Losses for both April and May were revised deeper, to 62,000 and 67,000, respectively. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.5%. Most of the losses were concentrated in goods-producing industries, while service-producing industries eked out a small gain.
    • Job Cuts
    • In June, companies and non-profits announced job cuts affecting 81,755. While this is lower than the total for May (103,522), the second quarter total was at its highest since the fourth quarter of 2005. The financial sector led all others in cuts in June.
    • Employment Index
    • The Monster Employment Index fell by 3 points in June, coming in at 163, the lowest value since January. Although seasonal factors may have contributed to the fall in June, the index remains about 12% below its year-ago level, unchanged from a month ago. The details of the report suggested that declines in online job demand continued in a broad number of industries, with only four of the industrial categories tracked by the index reporting month-ago increases.
    • Jobless Claims
    • Initial claims jumped to 404,000, more than expected. Some of the surge in initial claims likely stems from the flooding across portions of the Midwest.
    • Personal Income
    • Personal income soared 1.9% in May, following April's 0.3% growth. Income growth was inflated by the effects of the tax rebates. Excluding those, personal income rose 0.4% in May, up from 0.2% in April. Spending growth jumped to 0.8% from 0.4% the prior month. Real spending rose half as much. The core PCE deflator rose 0.1% again, while the top-line deflator rose 0.4%. The savings rate soared to 5% as a result of the tax rebate inflation of disposable income.
    • Factory Orders (M3)
    • New orders for manufactured goods rose 0.6% in May, exactly matching consensus expectations. The first print on durable goods orders, which were flat over the month, was unrevised. Nondurable goods orders/shipments rose 1.2% in May following a 3.5% increase in April. Total manufacturing shipments were up 0.1%; the increase in nondurable goods shipments barely offset a decline in durable goods shipments of 1.1%. Inventories and unfilled orders rose over the month as well.
    • Agricultural Prices
    • The Preliminary All Farm Products Index of Prices Received by Farmers increased 7.3% in June from May. The all crops index rose 11%, driving aggregate gains, and the livestock index increased 2.2%. Prices received for corn and soybeans were higher, while prices received for wheat decreased. Prices paid by farmers for their means of production rose 1.6%, led by higher prices for feed grains and diesel fuel.
    • Construction Spending (C30)
    • Construction spending decreased by 0.4% in May, slightly less than expected. Private construction declined by 0.7%, driven down by a 1.6% decline in residential construction. Public construction increased by 0.4% from April.
    • Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
    • The first quarter Case-Shiller house price indices indicate a dismal housing market. Nationally, house prices are down an annualized 23% from the fourth quarter, 16% below the mid-2006 peak. House prices in California's Central Valley are sliding the quickest in the nation, declining by about 40% y/y. Price declines are also hitting metro areas on Florida's west coast hard. Prices are falling in nearly all the markets. The few exceptions are located in Tennessee and Pennsylvania.
    • MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
    • The MBA market composite indices finished higher for the week ending June 27. The modest increase was led by a larger volume of refinancing contracts as the refinance index finished higher by 4.7% compared to last week, perhaps benefiting from a small drop in 30-year fixed rate mortgage interest rates. The purchase index also finished up by 2.8%, while the overall market index is higher by 3.6% compared to last week.
    • Chain Store Sales
    • Chain store sales increased a slight 0.1% in the week ending June 28, according to the ICSC. Year- over-year growth was unchanged at 2.2%, matching the strongest rate in eight weeks. Sales were reportedly focused on basics and hurt by high energy prices and economic worries.
    • Natural Gas Storage Report
    • Working gas in underground storage rose by 85 billion cubic feet during the week ending June 27, below consensus expectations of an 89 bcf build. Working gas in underground storage was 2,118 bcf as of June 27, 381 bcf lower than a year ago, and 57 bcf below the five-year average for this time of year.
    • Oil and Gas Inventories
    • Crude oil inventories fell by 2 million barrels for the week ending June 27, according to the Energy Information Administration, more than the expected 0.1 million barrel decline. Gasoline inventories rose by 2.1 million barrels, contradicting expectations of a 0.2 million barrel decline. Distillate supplies rose by 1.3 million barrels, falling short of expectations of a 1.9 million barrel build. Refinery operating capacity improved to 89.2% from 88.6%. This report should send oil prices higher.

    Source: Economy.com 2008


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    Note from Bob Springmeyer:

    As some of you may know I am the Democratic Candidate for Utah Governor.

    I chose community activist and retired SBA official Josie Valdez to run as my lieutenant governor.

    We now have a staff, lawn signs, bumper stickers available.

    It is my hope that I can continue to send out the Monday Report weekly without interruption.

    The Monday Report has always reflected my business and economic development values.

    I don't intend that the Monday Report will become a campaign tool, but if you are interested in my campaign and want to be supportive, please click on the link below.

    Thanks,

    Bob Springmeyer

    The good education, good jobs, good health and good government candidate for Utah Governor

    Election Date: November 4th, 2008

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    November 4th, 2008
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