• ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Confidence - Close to All-Time Low!
• The ABC News/Washington Post consumer comfort index fell sharply over the week and is within striking distance of its all-time low. The headline index came in at -46 in the week ending May 4, down from - 41 the previous week. The details of the report were very weak with all three components declining. Consumer confidence is at a level consistent with a more severe than expected recession.

• Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey
• The April Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey by the Federal Reserve revealed that the credit crunch continues as lending standards continued to tighten in the first quarter on all types of consumer and business loans. Loan demand by both households and businesses continued to weaken, although the pace of decline slowed from the previous survey.

• Wholesale Trade (MWTR)
• Wholesale inventories fell by 0.1% in March, falling well short of expectations of a 0.5% build, following an downwardly revised 0.9% gain in February. Sales rose by 1.6% in March compared with an upwardly revised 0.5% decline in February. The inventory-to-sales ratio fell two-hundredths of a point from an downwardly revised 1.11 to 1.09 in March.

• Consumer Credit (G19)
• Consumer credit increased by $15.3 billion in March, reaching $2.558 trillion. Once again, revolving lines of credit were responsible for most of the increase this month. However, nonrevolving credit also increased by a surprisingly large amount, considering the recent poor sales figures for new vehicles.

• Productivity and Costs
• Nonfarm business productivity growth was surprisingly strong in the first quarter, coming in at 2.2% (SAAR), up from 1.8% in the fourth quarter. This was well above the consensus. Productivity growth was 3.2% from the first quarter of 2007 to the first quarter of 2008. Nonfarm unit labor costs rose an annualized 2.2% in the first quarter, slightly below the consensus. Unit labor costs were up just 0.2% on a year-ago basis. The numbers indicate that productivity continues to increase, despite the weak economy, and there is little in the way of inflationary pressures coming from the labor market.

• Pending Home Sales
• The pending home sales index fell 1% in March to 83 from February's downwardly revised number. The index is down 20% from a year ago. This report suggests that conditions in the housing market remain weak and have yet to show real signs of improving.

• MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
• The MBA market composite indices finished higher for the week ending May 2, 2008. The market index increased by 15.6% from the previous week, and, for once, refinance applications did not predominate. The purchase index was up by 12.1% and the refinance index increased by 19.3% from the previous week. One week of data is too little to tell whether the mortgage market has bottomed out, but this is still a good sign.

• Jobless Claims
• Initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased by 18,000 to 365,000, a larger drop than expected. Initial claims have leveled off in recent weeks, no longer having the clear upward momentum shown since the fourth quarter of 2007. They do, however, remain at an elevated pace.

• Chain Store Sales
• Chain store sales rose 3.6% in April, well ahead of expectations, but lifted to a large degree by calendar effects. Sales were up 1.6% on average over March and April, consistent with weak results seen since September. The early Easter added a selling day to April compared to last year. Improved weather and high gasoline prices also lifted sales. The underlying trend is weak, although perhaps not quite as weak as previously thought.

• Oil and Gas Inventories
• Crude oil inventories rose by 5.7 million barrels for the week ending May 2, according to the Energy Information Administration, compared with expectations of a 1.6 million barrel build. Gasoline inventories rose by 0.8 million barrels, exceeding expectations of a 0.1 million barrel decline. Distillate supplies fell slightly by 0.1 million barrels versus expectations of a 0.8 million barrel build. Refinery operating capacity fell to 85% from 85.4%. This report is bearish, although it remains uncertain how much this report will influence prices given the ebullient sentiment in the oil market.

• Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
• Underground storage of natural gas rose by 65 billion cubic feet during the week ending May 2, slightly above consensus expectations of a 64 bcf build. Total underground storage was 1,436 bcf as of May 2, 284 bcf less than a year ago and 11 bcf below the five-year average for this time of year.

Source: Economy.com 2008