• Global>Business Confidence
• Global business confidence continues to deflate. U.S. business confidence slid to a new record low in mid-April, consistent with recession. Assessments of current business conditions and the strength of sales have never been lower. Financial services firms have also have never been as pessimistic. Equipment investment slipped sharply last week, and hiring intentions are soft. Inventory investment has turned positive during the past two weeks, and confidence remains stronger in Asia and South America.

• Bankruptcy Filings
• Personal bankruptcy filings continue to increase from their post-reform lows at a slow pace. Filings in the fourth quarter were 27% above last year, but remained 40% below the fourth quarter of 2004, before reform legislation and in a better credit environment. Business bankruptcies are following a similar but more muted pattern, up 43% from the fourth quarter of last year, but only up 2.7% over the past three years.

• Treasury International Capital Flows
• Net long-term TIC flows in February rose to $72.5 billion from $57.1 billion in January.

• Production
• Industrial production rose 0.3% in March, besting expectations for a modest 0.1% decline. All three categories that comprise industrial production- utilities, mining and manufacturing-improved during the month. Capacity utilization inched up to 80.5% but the trend is consistent with rising resource slack. Overall, the report suggests that the industrial sector, while contracting, is not dropping precipitously.

• CPI
• The Consumer Price Index ended March 2008 at 213.3, up 4% over the previous year and 0.3% from February. This is a slight decrease from February's rate, which was 4.1% on a yearly basis, but the monthly increase of 0.3% was higher than the previous monthly rate, which was near zero. Core CPI inflation came in at 2.4% per year, a tenth of a percentage point increase over the previous month. Overall inflationary pressures remain in check, an expected result given the current contraction in the economy.

• PPI
• Producer prices for finished goods rose by a rapid 1.1% in March, following a 0.3% increase in February. Much of the increase was due to inflation in food and energy prices, which rose sharply at all levels of processing. Excluding food and energy, prices for core finished producer goods rose by 0.2% during the month. Price increases remained more rapid at earlier stages of processing. Core prices for intermediate products rose by 1.1%, while core prices for crude materials rose by 3.5%.

• Business Inventories (MTIS)
• Total business inventories increased by 0.6% in February, matching consensus expectations. Retail inventories are the new piece of data in the report, and these rose by 0.2%. Sales fell 0.2% on aggregate from a month ago, leading to a rise in the inventory/sales ratio. The I/S ratio climbed to 1.28 from 1.26 previously.

• New Residential Construction (C20)
• Housing starts decreased 11.9% to 0.947 million units in March, putting the level below Moody's Economy.com's expectations. Housing permits decreased 5.8% during the month. Expect the market to remain soft throughout at least the first half of this year, even with more rate cuts by the Federal Open Market Committee.

• NAHB Housing Market Index
• Housing market activity is stable at a very low level, according to the National Association of Homebuilders housing market index. However, current activity remains very weak. The composite index is flat at 20 in April, the third consecutive such reading. Traffic of prospective buyers is picking up, as are expectations for future sales. Actual current sales activity is ticking down.

• MBA>Mortgage>Applications>Survey
• The MBA market composite indices finished mixed for the week ending April 11, 2008. A sizable increase in refinancing activity was not accompanied by a matching rise in the purchase index, which ended slightly lower. The overall market index ended up at 2.5% compared to the previous week, while the purchase index finished down by 0.8% and the refinancing index finished up by 5.2%. Contract rates remained almost level from the week before.

• Retail Sales (MARTS)
• Total retail sales rose 0.2% in March following a revised 0.4% decline in February. Sales at auto dealers rose. Hence, sales excluding autos gained a smaller 0.1% after falling 0.1% in February (originally reported as 0.2%). Nonstore retailers, sporting goods stores, and gasoline stations led growth in March, while building supply stores and department stores led the declines. Core sales were unchanged in March.

• Chain>Store>Sales
• Chain store sales rose 0.9% in the week ending April 12, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers. It was biggest increase in 10 weeks and moved the index above its recent narrow range. Year-over-year growth rose to 1.8%, still weak, but the best in six weeks. Warmer weather and possible seasonal adjustment issues lifted sales.

• Oil>and>Gas>Inventories
• Crude oil inventories fell by 2.3 million barrels for the week ending April 11, according to the Energy Information Administration, compared with expectations of a 1.5 million barrel build. Gasoline inventories fell sharply by 5.5 million barrels, well below expectations of a 1.8 million barrel decline. Distillate supplies rose slightly by 0.1 million barrels, above the expected 1.6 million barrel decline. Refinery operating capacity fell to an incredibly low 81.4%. This report is very bullish and could push crude to new all- time highs.

Source: Economy.com 2008