• Import and Export Prices
• The U.S. import price index increased 2.8% in March. A rise in both petroleum and nonpetroleum prices fueled the advance in overall import prices. U.S. export prices advanced 1.5% in March following a 1.1% rise in February.

• International Trade (FT900)
• The nominal U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened by a surprising 5.7% in February. The U.S. trade deficit came in at $62.3 billion, $3.3 billion more than January's upwardly revised $59.0 billion, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In January, both exports and imports increased, though imports increased more than exports. The goods deficit with China, however, fell to $18.4 billion.

• Treasury Budget
• The unified deficit for March was $48 billion, just above the CBO's preliminary estimate of a $47 billion deficit. The federal government has run a deficit of $311 billion through the first six months of fiscal 2008; this is 20% larger than the deficit at the same point in fiscal 2007. After a few years of improvement, the federal budget deficit is again widening.

• Consumer Credit (G19)
• Consumer credit increased in February by $5.2 billion to $2.539 trillion. The details of the report showed that the bulk of the increase came from revolving credit, which increased by $4.7 billion over the month. Demand for revolving credit will remain strong as rising joblessness and falling house prices force consumers to turn more to credit cards to finance consumption. Non-revolving credit barely rose in February, consistent with the recent weakening in demand for big ticket items, namely autos.

• Agricultural Prices
• The California Manufacturing Survey continued its descent in the first quarter, dropping to 50.5 from 53.8 in the fourth quarter of 2007, indicating that the state's manufacturing activity if flatlining. The survey's decline comes on the back of stalling new orders and slight declines in production and employment.

• Wholesale Trade (MWTR)
• Wholesale inventories rose by 1.1% in February, more than doubling consensus expectations of a 0.5% build, following an upwardly revised 1.3% reading in January. Sales fell by 0.8% in February compared with a downwardly revised 2.3% gain in January. The inventory-to-sales ratio rose two- hundredths of a point from an upwardly revised 1.10 to 1.12 in February.

• Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
• The February release of the JOLTS report reveals a steady but not sharp deterioration in labor market opportunities. Job openings and hiring were unchanged in February. The hiring rate remained at 3.4% for the fourth consecutive month. The job openings rate remained at 2.7%, but the number of advertised job openings has been falling steadily since last summer. The number of people hired has fallen since October. The separation rate increased to 3.3%, from 3.2% in January.

• Jobless Claims
• Initial jobless claims reversed all of the previous week's increase and more, dropping 53,000 to 357,000. This reinforces the previous week's number was driven by temporary factors and not indicative of a severe rise in layoffs. Note: In case there is any confusion, the Department of Labor had originally released that initial claims were 407,000 and this has since been corrected.

• MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
• The Mortgage Bankers Association composite indices were up for the week ending April 4. The market index increased by 5.4%, for once being led by greater activity in the purchase index, which increased by 8.1%. The refinancing index was up by 3.4%. Contract rates barely moved-apparently, applicants do not expect them to change substantially at least until the next turn in monetary policy.

• Quarterly Household Credit Report
• Household credit quality continued to erode in the first quarter of 2008. Delinquency and default rates rose substantially for first and second mortgages and auto loans. Taking all household liabilities together, delinquency and default rates are now much higher than they were during the 2001 recession. Although it weakened substantially in the quarter, balance growth remains strong.

• Pending Home Sales
• The pending home sales index fell 1.9% in February to 84.6 from January's upwardly revised number. The index is down 21.4% from a year ago. This report suggests that conditions in the housing market have not begun to improve yet, as last month's more encouraging result may have implied.

• Chain Store Sales
• Chain store sales fell 0.5% in March, even worse than already marked-down expectations. Sales were hurt by the early Easter and unfavorable weather. Hence, some of the weakness will be reversed in April, although these data support the view that consumer spending is very weak.

• Oil and Gas Inventories
• Crude oil inventories fell sharply by 3.2 million barrels for the week ending April 4, according to the Energy Information Administration, compared with expectations of a 2.2 million barrel buildup. Gasoline inventories fell by 3.4 million barrels, below expectations of a 2.5 million barrel decline. Distillate supplies fell by an outsized 3.7 million barrels, below the expected 1.4 million barrel decline. Refinery operating capacity rose to 83.0%. This report is very bullish and could push crude to new all-time highs.

• Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
• Underground storage of natural gas fell by 14 billion cubic feet during the week ending April 4, slightly more than consensus expectations of a 13 bcf drawdown. Total underground storage was 1,234 bcf as of April 4, 351 bcf less than a year ago and 23 bcf less than the five-year average for this time of year.

Source: Economy.com 2008