• Import and Export Prices
• The U.S. Import Price Index increased 0.2% in February. A 0.6% increase in nonpetroleum prices fueled the advance in overall import prices. U.S. export prices advanced 0.9% in February following a 1.2% rise in January.

• Treasury Budget
• The unified deficit for February was $176 billion, just above the CBO's preliminary estimate of a $174 billion deficit. The federal government has run a deficit of $263 billion through the first five months of fiscal year 2008; this is 62% larger than the deficit at the same point in fiscal year 2007. After a few years of improvement, the federal budget deficit is again widening.

• International Employment Survey
• The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey added five countries to the list in the latest survey, bringing the total number to 32. Employers in all of the countries and territories surveyed expect to add staff during the June quarter this year. The net employment outlook in the U.S. unexpectedly improved, with 17% of employers intending to hire in the second quarter compared with just 10% in the opening three months. In Europe, hiring intentions softened in most countries but demand for workers strengthened in Germany according to the unadjusted readings. Meanwhile, employment activity in the Asia region will remain strong, as more employers plan to recruit in the three months to June.

• International Trade (FT900)
• The nominal U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened by 0.6% in January. The U.S. trade deficit came in at $58.20 billion, $0.34 billion more than December's revised $57.9 billion, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In January, both exports and imports increased, though imports increased more than exports. The goods deficit with China, however, widened to $20.3 billion, but is 0.5% less than a year ago. Crude oil prices increased in January, which in turn increased the nation's total import bill for oil to $27.1 billion.

• Consumer Price Index
• The top-line CPI for February came in at 212.6, indicating slight disinflation. The monthly inflation rate was zero, while the year-ago top-line inflation rate was 4.1%, down 0.3 percentage points from January inflation. Core inflation also fell slightly, from 2.5% in January to 2.3% in February. Most likely, the slight decrease in inflation is due to the onset of the demand-side downturn as the U.S. slides into recession.

• Employment Situation
• The labor market performed even worse than Moody's Economy.com's expectation of no gains. Payrolls declined by 63,000 in February, with sharp losses in goods-producing industries (-89,000) as well as tepid gains in services (26,000). Government payrolls rebounded as expected with a gain of 38,000. In addition, the January losses were revised downward slightly to a loss of 22,000, even though the preliminary decline in government payrolls was mostly revised away to a gain of 4,000. The unemployment rate, however, fell to 4.8%; it is calculated from a separate survey.

• Consumer Credit (G19)
• Consumer credit increased in January by a modest $6.9 billion to $2.525 trillion. The details of the report showed that the bulk of the increase came from revolving credit, which advanced at a faster pace in December. Demand for revolving credit should remain comparably sturdy as rising joblessness, falling house prices, and slower income growth force consumers to turn more to credit cards to finance consumption.

• Wholesale Trade (MWTR)
• Wholesale inventories rose by 0.8% in January, doubling consensus expectations of a 0.4% build, following an unrevised 1.1% reading in December. Sales rose by 2.7% in January compared with an upwardly revised 0.5% decline in December. The inventory-to-sales ratio fell two-hundredths of a point to 1.07 in January.

• Jobless Claims
• Initial jobless claims held steady at 353,000, slightly below expectations. Important to remember, however, is that this is elevated relative to the trend of recent years, indicating that layoffs have marginally increased over the past several months.

• Business Inventories (MTIS)
• Total business inventories increased by 0.8% in January, beating expectations for a milder gain. Retail inventories are the only new data in this report, which increased by 0.4%. Sales rose by 1.5%, with increases in all categories. The I/S ratio declined slightly to 1.25 from its previous 1.26.

• Quarterly Services Survey
• In the fourth quarter of 2007, the information industry posted revenue growth of 4.5% from a year ago. Professional, scientific, and technical services industry revenues grew 5.9%, administrative and support industry revenues 1.4%, and hospital and nursing care industry revenues 7.9%.

• MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
• The MBA applications indices finished mixed, as they were in the week before. The purchase index finished the week ending March 7 at 363.1, up 1.6% from the previous week. Higher mortgage contract rates continued to erode the refinance index, which ended at 2,448.2, down by 4.7% from the past week. The overall market index ended at 671.7, down 1.9% from the previous week.

• Chain Store Sales
• Chain store sales rose 0.3% in the week ending March 8 according to the ICSC, leaving the index in its recent narrow range. Year-over-year growth was hurt by difficult comparisons, falling to 1.6%, the worst performance in five weeks. The ICSC noted high energy prices and unfavorable weather as drags in the week.

• Retail Sales (MARTS)
• Total retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.6% in February, following an upwardly revised 0.4% gain in January. Sales at auto dealers fell despite little change in unit auto sales. So sales excluding autos fell a smaller 0.2% after gaining 0.5% in January (originally reported as 0.3%). Drug stores, warehouse clubs, and sporting goods and hobby stores were among the few bright spots in February.

• Oil and Gas Inventories
• Crude oil inventories soared by 6.2 million barrels for the week ending March 7, according to the Energy Information Administration, compared with expectations of a 1.7 million barrel buildup. Distillate supplies fell by 1.2 million barrels, above expectations of a 1.9 million barrel decline. Gasoline inventories rose by 1.7 million barrels, above expectations of a 0.3 million barrel buildup. Refinery operating capacity fell to 85.0% from 85.9%. This report will depress oil prices.

• Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
• nderground storage of natural gas fell by 86 billion cubic feet during the week ending March 7, slightly more than the consensus expectation for a drawdown of 85 billion cubic feet. Total underground storage was 1,398 Bcf as of March 7, 151 Bcf less than a year ago but 57 Bcf above the five-year average for this time of year.

Source: Economy.com 2008