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Monday Report
Utah County Residential Loans in Default March 10th 2008


ECONOMIC NOTES:


 

SCORECARD
RankZipCity # Defaults Previous 6 Months# Defaults Last 6 Months% Change
184043Lehi/Eagle Mountain102227 123%
284062Pleasant Grove396567%
384660Spanish Fork356277%
484003 Highland/American Fork4059 48%
584057Orem 374932%
684663 Springville3146 48%
784601Provo 304550%
884604Provo 294141%
984058Orem 243754%
1084651 Payson3336 9%
1184606Provo 1230150%
1284097Orem 122283%
1384004 Alpine819 138%
1484655 Santiquin1219 58%
1584664 Mapleton616 167%
1684005 Eagle Mountain57 40%
1784042 Lindon97 -22%
1884653 Salem 770%
1984013Cedar Fort2350%
2084020 Draper13200 %
2184633 Goshen- 3
2284041 Salem110%
2384045Saratoga Springs21-50%
TotalsUtah County375578+54 %

Source: NewReach - Builders Decision, 2008


THIS WEEKS LEADS

Lots of smaller format food stores - Not in our market, but they should be!

  • Not in our Market, but it should be! -The Fresh Market
  • The Fresh Market operates 80 locations throughout AL, AR, FL, GA, IL, IN, KY, LA, MD, MI, MS, NC, OH, PA, SC, TN, VA and WI.
  • The upscale supermarkets occupy spaces of 18,000 sq.ft. to 20,000 sq.ft. in inline spaces and freestanding locations.
  • Growth opportunities are sought throughout CT and Westchester County, NY during the coming 18 months, with representation by Sullivan Hayes Cos.
  • The company prefers to locate in affluent trade areas.
  • For more information, contact
    • Tim McNamara,
    • Sullivan Hayes Cos.,
    • 10 Waterside Drive, Suite 200,
    • Farmington, CT 06032.
  • Two Buck Chuck! - Can't we? Please?
  • Trader Joe's operates locations throughout AZ, CA, CT, IL, DE, GA, MA, MI, MO, NC, NJ, NM, NY, OH, OR, PA, WA, WI and Washington, DC.
  • The specialty grocery stores, offering traditional and organic grocery items, occupy spaces of 10,000 sq.ft. to 12,000 sq.ft. in freestanding locations and malls, in addition to power, specialty and strip centers.
  • Growth opportunities are sought throughout central and northern counties in NJ and Rockland County, NY during the coming 18 months, with representation by R.J. Brunelli & Co., Inc.
  • Typical leases run 10 years. Specific improvements are required.
  • For more information, contact
    • Ron Deluca,
    • R.J. Brunelli & Co., Inc.,
    • 400 Perrine Road, Suite 405,
    • Old Bridge, NJ 08857;
    • Web site: www.njretailrealty.com.
  • Super 1 Foods
  • Super 1 Foods operates nine locations throughout ID and MT.
  • The natural and organic grocery stores occupy spaces of 45,000 sq.ft. to 55,000 sq.ft. in freestanding locations.
  • Growth opportunities are sought throughout western MT and northern ID during the coming 18 months.
  • Typical leases run 30 years. A vanilla shell is required.
  • Preferred cotenants include Home Depot and Lowe's Home Improvements.
  • Major competitors include Albertsons, Smith's, Safeway, Costco, Fred Meyer and Wal*Mart.
  • For more information, contact
    • Ron McIntire,
    • Super 1 Foods,
    • PO Box 10,
    • Hayden, ID 83835;
    • Web site: www.super1foods.com.
  • Superior Super Warehouse
  • Superior Super Warehouse operates 29 locations throughout CA.
  • The supermarkets, offering produce, deli, meat, poultry and seafood departments, occupy spaces of 50,000 sq.ft. to 60,000 sq.ft. in freestanding locations and neighborhood centers.
  • Growth opportunities are sought throughout central and southern CA during the coming 18 months, with representation by Southern Pacific Investments, Inc.
  • A land area of three to four acres is required for freestanding units.
  • For more information, contact
    • Randy Ibara,
    • Southern Pacific Investments, Inc.,
    • 1168 San Gabriel Boulevard, Suite M,
    • Rosemead, CA 91770.
  • Market Basket Food Stores
  • Market Basket Food Stores operate 17 locations throughout NC.
  • The supermarkets occupy spaces of 12,000 sq.ft. to 27,000 sq.ft. in freestanding locations and strip centers.
  • Growth opportunities are sought throughout the existing market during the coming 18 months.
  • Typical leases run five years with two, five-year options.
  • For more information, contact
    • R.D. Hunt,
    • Market Basket Food Stores,
    • 393 3rd Avenue Southwest,
    • Taylorsville, NC 28681.
  • Cost-U-Less
  • Cost-U-Less, Inc. trades as Cost-U-Less at 12 locations throughout CA, HI and internationally.
  • The warehouse club-style centers occupy spaces of 30,000 sq.ft. in freestanding locations.
  • Growth opportunities are sought throughout the existing markets during the coming 18 months.
  • Typical leases run 10 years with options.
  • Preferred demographics include a population of 50,000 within five miles earning $15,000 as the average household income.
  • For more information, contact
    • Rex Wilhelm,
    • Cost-U-Less, Inc.,
    • 3633 136th Place Southeast, Suite 110,
    • Bellevue, WA 98006;
    • 425-945-0213;
    • Web site: www.costuless.com
  • Daphne's Greek Café
  • Daphne's Greek Café operates 85 locations throughout AZ, CA, CO, OR and WA.
  • The fast-casual Greek restaurants occupy spaces of 1,800 sq.ft. to 2,200 sq.ft. in endcaps.
  • Growth opportunities are sought throughout southern CA during the coming 18 months, with representation by Commercial West Brokerage.
  • Endcap locations require a patio and the company prefers to locate in areas with good street visibility.
  • For more information regarding Daphne's Greek Café, contact
    • Phil Berry,
    • 2443 East Coast Highway,
    • Corona Del Mar, CA 92625;
    • Web site: www.commercialwest.com.
  • El Pollo Loco
  • El Pollo Loco operates 380 locations throughout AZ, CA, CO, CT, GA, IL, MA, NV and TX.
  • The quick- service restaurants, offering flame-grilled chicken, occupy spaces of 2,500 sq.ft. to 3,000 sq.ft. in freestanding locations with a drive-thru.
  • Growth opportunities are sought throughout Apple Valley, Victorville and Yucca Valley/29 Palms in CA during the coming 18 months, with representation by Commercial West Brokerage.
  • For more information regarding El Pollo Loco, contact
    • Phil Berry, 2443 East Coast Highway, Corona Del Mar, CA 92625; Web site: www.commercialwest.com.
  • Jerry's Artarama
  • Jerry's Artarama operates 15 locations throughout CT, CO, FL, NC, NJ, RI, TN and TX.
  • The stores, offering art supplies, books and frames, occupy spaces of 10,000 sq.ft. to 15,000 sq.ft. in freestanding locations, strip centers and downtown areas.
  • Growth opportunities are sought throughout AZ, CA, FL, GA, SC and TX during the coming 18 months.
  • Typical leases run 10 years.
  • A vanilla shell is required.
  • For more information contact,
    • Mike Gundry,
    • Jerry's Artarama,
    • PO Box 58638,
    • Raleigh, NC 27658-8638;
    • Web site: www.jerrysartarama.com
  • Little Caesars Pizza
  • Little Caesar Enterprises, Inc. trades as Little Caesars Pizza at locations nationwide.
  • The pizzerias occupy spaces of 1,200 sq.ft. to 1,400 sq.ft. in freestanding locations and strip centers.
  • Growth opportunities are sought nationwide during the coming 18 months.
  • Typical leases run five years with options.
  • The company prefers to locate near supermarkets, video stores and pharmacies.
  • Preferred demographics include a population of 25,000 within three miles earning $50,000 as the average household income.
  • The company is franchising.
  • For more information, contact
    • Mike Atwell,
    • Little Caesar Enterprises, Inc.,
    • 2211 Woodward Avenue,
    • Detroit, MI 48201- 3400.

Election Day 
2008 countdown banner

Greetings!

Utah County Mortgages in Default or with a notice of Default

  • Where?
  • What zip codes are the highest?
  • Who is most at risk?

Bob Springmeyer

Bonneville Research


  • ECONOMIC NOTES:
    • International Business Confidence
    • The U.S. economy is contracting and the rest of the global economy is weak according to the global business confidence survey. Real estate firms, financial institutions and business service firms are the most worried, but even manufacturers and high- tech firms are measurably more nervous. Assessments of current conditions and the outlook six months hence remain notably dour, although responses to all nine questions in the survey are soft. Firms continue to reduce inventories. Pricing pressures remain subdued despite $100-plus oil.
    • Semiconductor Billings
    • Global semiconductor sales fell by 3.6% in January to $21.5 billion on a three-month moving average basis. Sales were just 0.1% higher than in January 2007, indicating softening conditions in the market.
    • ISM Index
    • Manufacturing activity declined in February. After rebounding to above 50 in January, the ISM composite index fell to 48.3 in February, its lowest level since April 2003. The details were also weak, consistent with the view that contraction in the industrial sector will persist beyond the first quarter.
    • Agricultural Prices
    • The preliminary All Farm Products Index of Prices Received by Farmers was unchanged from January, following a succession of monthly price increases. Both the crop and livestock indices rose by less than 1%. Individual commodity increases were posted for wheat, soybeans, corn and hogs. Milk, lettuce, broccoli and tomatoes fetched lower prices. Over the past year, the All Products Index and Food Commodities Index both increased 13%. The Index of Prices Paid rose 1.2% in February and now stands 10% higher than a year ago. Higher prices were paid for complete feeds, feeder cattle, potash& phosphate materials and feed concentrates. Farmers paid less for LP gas, self- propelled machinery, gasoline and other machinery.
    • Personal Income
    • Personal income rose 0.3% in January, less than December's 0.5%. Spending growth accelerated to 0.4%, up from 0.3% the prior month (upwardly revised). However, real spending was unchanged for the second month. The core PCE deflator rose 0.3% and the topline deflator rose 0.4%. The saving rate held steady at -0.1%. Many special factors distorted the income data.
    • Productivity and Costs
    • Productivity growth for the fourth quarter was revised slightly higher. Nonfarm business productivity grew 1.9% (SAAR), compared with 1.8% in the preliminary release; the consensus was for 1.8%. The revision was due to a larger decline in hours worked than originally reported. Growth in unit labor costs saw a large upward revision, from 2.1% (SAAR) to 2.6%. This was a larger upward revision than the consensus expected. The upward revision to unit labor costs may increase inflation concerns.
    • Factory Orders (M3)
    • New orders for manufactured goods fell 2.5% in January, exactly matching expectations. Shipments rose 1.1% and the I/S ratio held at 1.24 months. Durable goods orders fell 5.1%, which was a small upward revision from the preliminary drop of 5.3% reported last week. Nondurable goods orders (shipments) rose 0.3%, led by food products. Petroleum shipments fell over the month on the back of lower prices in January.
    • Jobless Claims
    • Initial jobless claims decreased by 24,000 to 351,000, well below expectations. This lends credibility to the argument that last week's number was inflated by the President's Day holiday.
    • Monster Employment Index
    • The Monster Employment Index rose 5 points in February to 165, compared with 160 a month ago. February's modest rise marks an end to the recent three-month trend of moderating online recruitment activity, although the index remains 12 points below its year-ago level.
    • Major Job Cuts
    • The number of people affected by job cut announcements fell slightly in February, to 72,091 from 74,986 in January. Despite evidence of a weakening economy, layoffs and other job cuts are not escalating. However, an increase in cuts by retailers suggests that consumer spending is weakening. In addition to retailing, housing market woes continue to spur job cuts by financial service providers.
    • Construction Spending (C30)
    • Construction spending decreased by 1.7% in January. Private construction declined by 2.2%, driven down by a 3% decline in residential construction. Additionally, public construction fell by 0.2%.
    • Pending Home Sales
    • The pending home sales index held steady in January at 85.9. At 85.9, the index is still down 19.6% from a year ago. However, this report provides some hope that conditions in the housing market may begin to improve soon.
    • MBA Delinquency Rates
    • The delinquency rate of first mortgages increased 23 basis points to 5.82% on a quarter-to-quarter basis in the fourth quarter of 2007, while the percentage of loan foreclosures increased 35 basis points to 2.04%. The increases in both mortgage delinquency and foreclosure rates reflect the battered housing market, increased mortgage payments from rising or resetting mortgage rates, and tightened underwriting standards.
    • MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
    • The Mortgage Bankers Association market indices finished higher for the week ending February 29. The purchase index was up slightly at 363.1 and the refinance index was at 2,569.0, a significant gain. The overall market index finished at 684.9, up by 3% over the previous week. The week's rally was led by a substantial decrease in the contract rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages.
    • Chain Store Sales
    • Chain store sales rose 1.9% in February, well above expectations and results of the prior two months. Nonetheless, sales of consumer stress were evident as results were mixed and many better performing chains were discounters.
    • Vehicle Sales - AutoData
    • February was not a good month for the U.S. motor vehicle industry, which has had to contend with weaker consumer spending as well as the bankruptcy of Plastech and strike at American Axle, which hindered production. Vehicle sales totaled 15.3 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis in February, about where they were in January but well below the 16.6 million units recorded a year ago. The difference is even larger given that there was one more selling day in February this year.
    • Oil and Gas Inventories
    • rude oil inventories fell unexpectedly by 3.1 million barrels for the week ending February 29, according to the Energy Information Administration, compared with expectations of a 2.4 million barrel buildup. Distillate supplies fell by 2.4 million barrels, below expectations of a 1.9 million barrel decline. Gasoline inventories rose by 1.7 million barrels, above expectations of a 0.9 million barrel increase. Refinery operating capacity rose to 85.9% from 84.7%. Oil will trade higher on the back of today's report.
    • Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
    • Underground storage of natural gas fell by 135 billion cubic feet during the week ending February 29, slightly less than the consensus expectation for a drawdown of 142 billion cubic feet. Total underground storage was 1,484 bcf as of February 29, 169 bcf less than a year ago but 63 bcf above the five-year average for this time of year.

    Source: Economy.com 2008

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    • Bob
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      • BobSpring@BonnevilleResearch.com
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      • 801-746-5706
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