• International Business Confidence
• The U.S. economy is contracting and the rest of the global economy is weak according to the global business confidence survey. Real estate firms, financial institutions and business service firms are the most worried, but even manufacturers and high- tech firms are measurably more nervous. Assessments of current conditions and the outlook six months hence remain notably dour, although responses to all nine questions in the survey are soft. Firms continue to reduce inventories. Pricing pressures remain subdued despite $100-plus oil.

• Semiconductor Billings
• Global semiconductor sales fell by 3.6% in January to $21.5 billion on a three-month moving average basis. Sales were just 0.1% higher than in January 2007, indicating softening conditions in the market.

• ISM Index
• Manufacturing activity declined in February. After rebounding to above 50 in January, the ISM composite index fell to 48.3 in February, its lowest level since April 2003. The details were also weak, consistent with the view that contraction in the industrial sector will persist beyond the first quarter.

• Agricultural Prices
• The preliminary All Farm Products Index of Prices Received by Farmers was unchanged from January, following a succession of monthly price increases. Both the crop and livestock indices rose by less than 1%. Individual commodity increases were posted for wheat, soybeans, corn and hogs. Milk, lettuce, broccoli and tomatoes fetched lower prices. Over the past year, the All Products Index and Food Commodities Index both increased 13%. The Index of Prices Paid rose 1.2% in February and now stands 10% higher than a year ago. Higher prices were paid for complete feeds, feeder cattle, potash& phosphate materials and feed concentrates. Farmers paid less for LP gas, self- propelled machinery, gasoline and other machinery.

• Personal Income
• Personal income rose 0.3% in January, less than December's 0.5%. Spending growth accelerated to 0.4%, up from 0.3% the prior month (upwardly revised). However, real spending was unchanged for the second month. The core PCE deflator rose 0.3% and the topline deflator rose 0.4%. The saving rate held steady at -0.1%. Many special factors distorted the income data.

• Productivity and Costs
• Productivity growth for the fourth quarter was revised slightly higher. Nonfarm business productivity grew 1.9% (SAAR), compared with 1.8% in the preliminary release; the consensus was for 1.8%. The revision was due to a larger decline in hours worked than originally reported. Growth in unit labor costs saw a large upward revision, from 2.1% (SAAR) to 2.6%. This was a larger upward revision than the consensus expected. The upward revision to unit labor costs may increase inflation concerns.

• Factory Orders (M3)
• New orders for manufactured goods fell 2.5% in January, exactly matching expectations. Shipments rose 1.1% and the I/S ratio held at 1.24 months. Durable goods orders fell 5.1%, which was a small upward revision from the preliminary drop of 5.3% reported last week. Nondurable goods orders (shipments) rose 0.3%, led by food products. Petroleum shipments fell over the month on the back of lower prices in January.

• Jobless Claims
• Initial jobless claims decreased by 24,000 to 351,000, well below expectations. This lends credibility to the argument that last week's number was inflated by the President's Day holiday.

• Monster Employment Index
• The Monster Employment Index rose 5 points in February to 165, compared with 160 a month ago. February's modest rise marks an end to the recent three-month trend of moderating online recruitment activity, although the index remains 12 points below its year-ago level.

• Major Job Cuts
• The number of people affected by job cut announcements fell slightly in February, to 72,091 from 74,986 in January. Despite evidence of a weakening economy, layoffs and other job cuts are not escalating. However, an increase in cuts by retailers suggests that consumer spending is weakening. In addition to retailing, housing market woes continue to spur job cuts by financial service providers.

• Construction Spending (C30)
• Construction spending decreased by 1.7% in January. Private construction declined by 2.2%, driven down by a 3% decline in residential construction. Additionally, public construction fell by 0.2%.

• Pending Home Sales
• The pending home sales index held steady in January at 85.9. At 85.9, the index is still down 19.6% from a year ago. However, this report provides some hope that conditions in the housing market may begin to improve soon.

• MBA Delinquency Rates
• The delinquency rate of first mortgages increased 23 basis points to 5.82% on a quarter-to-quarter basis in the fourth quarter of 2007, while the percentage of loan foreclosures increased 35 basis points to 2.04%. The increases in both mortgage delinquency and foreclosure rates reflect the battered housing market, increased mortgage payments from rising or resetting mortgage rates, and tightened underwriting standards.

• MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
• The Mortgage Bankers Association market indices finished higher for the week ending February 29. The purchase index was up slightly at 363.1 and the refinance index was at 2,569.0, a significant gain. The overall market index finished at 684.9, up by 3% over the previous week. The week's rally was led by a substantial decrease in the contract rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages.

• Chain Store Sales
• Chain store sales rose 1.9% in February, well above expectations and results of the prior two months. Nonetheless, sales of consumer stress were evident as results were mixed and many better performing chains were discounters.

• Vehicle Sales - AutoData
• February was not a good month for the U.S. motor vehicle industry, which has had to contend with weaker consumer spending as well as the bankruptcy of Plastech and strike at American Axle, which hindered production. Vehicle sales totaled 15.3 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis in February, about where they were in January but well below the 16.6 million units recorded a year ago. The difference is even larger given that there was one more selling day in February this year.

• Oil and Gas Inventories
• rude oil inventories fell unexpectedly by 3.1 million barrels for the week ending February 29, according to the Energy Information Administration, compared with expectations of a 2.4 million barrel buildup. Distillate supplies fell by 2.4 million barrels, below expectations of a 1.9 million barrel decline. Gasoline inventories rose by 1.7 million barrels, above expectations of a 0.9 million barrel increase. Refinery operating capacity rose to 85.9% from 84.7%. Oil will trade higher on the back of today's report.

• Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
• Underground storage of natural gas fell by 135 billion cubic feet during the week ending February 29, slightly less than the consensus expectation for a drawdown of 142 billion cubic feet. Total underground storage was 1,484 bcf as of February 29, 169 bcf less than a year ago but 63 bcf above the five-year average for this time of year.

Source: Economy.com 2008