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SCORECARD
Sub-Prime Loans - Decrease in House
Values/Tax Base
Where is the biggest problem?
The "Top 10" - California
- New
York
- Florida
- Illinois
- New Jersey
- Maryland
- Arizona
- Massachusetts
- Virginia
- Pennsylvania
Neighbors - #11 Nevada
- #15 Hawaii
- #17 Colorado
- #19 Oregon
Homeowners living near foreclosed
properties will see their property values decrease
$5,000 on average.
Sub-Prime Loans - Utah
Counties - 2005-2006
| Rank | County |
# of Sub-Prime Loans | % Loans
Sub-Prime | Projected # Homes Lost to
Foreclosure | Average Value Decrease per
Housing Unit |
|---|
| 1 | Salt
Lake | 18,496 | 25.6%
| 3,218 | $2,722 |
| 2 | Utah | 6,973 |
22.0%
| 1,283 | $2,130 |
| 3 | Davis | 4,342 |
20.7%
| 777 | $1,915 |
| 4 | Weber | 3,753 |
27.1%
| 672 | $1,560 |
| 5 | Washington |
2,896 | 23.0%
| 571 | $2,181 |
| 6 | Tooele | 1,217 |
29.9%
| 212 | $1,803 |
| 7 | Cache | 780 |
16.9%
| 133 | $1,459 |
| 8 | Summit | 456 |
11.8%
| 79 | $5,447 |
| 9 | Juab | 128 |
27.5%
| 24 | $1,665 |
| 10 | Morgan | 89 |
14.7%
| 16 | $2,374 |
| Total/Average | | 39,130
| 23.7%
| 6,985 | $2,400 |
Source: Center for Responsible
Lending, January 18,
2008
Advice from a New Age
entrepreneur
Chris Reed, chief executive of Reed's Ginger
Brew, offers some tips for business founders:
- "Work at keeping a positive attitude.
The mind is a powerful creative force in your
business: it affects everything you do."
- "It's never as bad as you think when you are facing
problems. Remember to breathe, and don't let the
pressure overwhelm you into making decisions."
- "Study other people who have made it and base at
least your starting point on a successful model."
- "Try to make a difference. Do something you
believe in or love. The money only goes so far."
- "Do not let your emotions rule you. If you are
feeling afraid or doubtful, keep moving forward."
- "Don't always be reasonable when the reality
seems hopeless. Pull back from the details and just
dream."
Source: The Financial Times 2008
Cost of Democracy?
Cost per Delegate - US Presidency:
- Giuliani - $48,000,000 (no
delegates)
- Paul - $5,000,000
- Romney - $654,000
- Obama - $119,000
- Clinton - $90,000
- McCain - $57,000
- Huckabee - $45,000
Source: New York Times
Note: The calculation is based on end-of-year
figures and does not take into account fund-raising in
2008 or the spending since the nominating process
began in Iowa on Jan. 3.
THIS WEEKS LEADS
- The Dress Barn
- The Dress Barn, Inc. trades as dressbarn and
dressbarn woman at 820 locations throughout the
contiguous U.S.
- The stores, selling misses' and
women's apparel, occupy spaces from 7,000 sq.ft. to
8,000 sq.ft. in lifestyle, outlet, power and strip centers
as well as downtown/urban and tourist
locations.
- Plans call for 60 openings throughout
the existing market during the coming 18
months.
- Preferred cotenants include grocery,
discount department and fashion apparel
stores.
- Preferred demographics include a
population of 100,000 within a three-mile radius
earning a median household income of
$45,000.
- The company prefers to locate in centers
with GLAs of at least 150,000 sq.ft.
- For more information, contact
- Elise Jaffe,
T
- he Dress Barn, Inc.,
- 30 Dunnigan
Drive,
- Suffern, NY 10901;
- Web site:
www.dressbarn.com.
- Borders
- Borders, Inc. trades as Borders at 587 locations
nationwide and internationally.
-
The book shops occupy spaces of 22,000 sq.ft. to
25,000 sq.ft. in malls, lifestyle, power and specialty
centers.
-
Plans call for 12 to 15 openings nationwide during the
coming 18 months.
-
Typical leases run 10 to 15 years.
-
Preferred cotenants include Best Buy, JCPenney,
Kohl's, Office Max and Target.
-
Preferred demographics include a population of
200,000 within five miles earning $50,000 as the
average household income.
-
Major competitors include Barnes & Noble.
- For more information, contact
- Vince
Vizza,
- Borders, Inc.,
- 100 Phoenix Drive,
- Ann
Arbor, MI 48108;
- Web site: www.borders.com.
- Oreck Clean Home Centers
- Oreck Franchise Services, LLC trades as Oreck
Clean Home Centers at 460 locations nationwide and
in Canada.
- The shops, offering vacuum cleaners
and accessories, occupy spaces of 1,000 sq.ft. to
2,000 sq.ft. in freestanding locations, lifestyle, power,
specialty and strip centers.
- Plans call for 35
openings nationwide during the coming 18
months.
- Typical leases run five years.
- The
company is franchising.
- For more information, contact
- Doug Van
Tassell,
- Oreck Franchise Services, LLC,
- 414
Union Street, Suite 1910,
- Nashville, TN
37219;
- 615-349-1511,
- Fax 615-742-
1895;
- Email: dvantassell@oreck.com;
- Web site:
www.ownanoreckstore.com.
- Goin Postal
- Goin Postal operates 250 locations
nationwide.
- The centers, offering shipping
supplies, copying, faxing, mailbox rentals and office
supplies, in addition to providing postal shipping,
occupy spaces of 1,200 sq.ft. to 1,400 sq.ft. in
downtown areas and entertainment, outlet, specialty,
strip and value centers.
- Plans call for 100
openings nationwide during the coming 18 months,
with representation by Ape Realty, Inc.
- For more information, submit
- sites by
email to
- Mark Camara,
- APE Realty, Inc.
- Web
site: www.aperealty.com.
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Greetings!
Sub-Prime Loans in Utah - Who stands to
lose the most?
- What is the impact on neighboring
properties?
Bob Springmeyer
Bonneville Research
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| ECONOMIC NOTES: |
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- International Business Confidence
- Business sentiment is very weak, signaling
recession in the U.S. and soft growth in Canada and
Europe. Confidence is measurably better in Asia and
South America, but is off substantially since this past
summer. Real estate firms and financial institutions
are the most worried, but business service firms and
even manufacturers are measurably more nervous.
Hiring intentions have fallen sharply during the past
two weeks, and equipment investment has also
notably weakened. Pricing pressures remain
subdued despite currently high oil prices.
- Productivity and Costs
- Nonfarm business productivity growth was
surprisingly strong in the fourth quarter, coming in at
1.8% (SAAR), down from 6.0% in the third quarter.
This was well above consensus. Productivity growth
was 2.6% from the fourth quarter of 2006 to the fourth
quarter of 2007. It was 1.6% for all of 2007 compared
to all of 2006, up from 1% the previous year. Nonfarm
unit labor costs rose an annualized 2.1% in the fourth
quarter, after two consecutive declines. This was
below consensus. This is good news, as it will help
quell inflation concerns.
- ISM Non-Mfg.Index
- The nonmanufacturing index contracted in
January, falling to 44.6%. The business activity index
fell to 41.9%, which was the first contraction in 58
months for the index.
- Jobless Claims
- Initial jobless claims dropped 22,000 to 356,000
from the previous week's holiday-inflated figure. The
decline in initial jobless claims was not as steep as
some had expected and thus an indication that layoffs
are accelerating.
- Consumer Credit (G19)
- Consumer credit increased in December by a very
modest $4.5 billion to $2.519 trillion. The details of the
report showed that demand for both revolving and
nonrevolving credit increased over the month, but well
off the pace set in November. Demand for revolving
credit will remain sturdy as rising joblessness, falling
house prices, and slower income growth force
consumers to turn to credit cards to finance
consumption.
- Pending Home Sales
- The pending home sales index declined by 1.5%
in December from a month ago. This follows the 3%
revised decline in November. At 85.9, the index was
down by 24.2% from a year ago. November's index
was revised downward to 87.2 from 87.6. The index's
large decline suggests that home sales will continue
to slow over the next several months in light of
continued weakness in the nation's housing
market.
- MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
- The composite market indices finished mixed for
the week ending February 1 but positive on the whole.
The composite index is up 3% from last week, while
the purchase index rallied from its two-week decline
and is up by 12%. The rush to refinance mortgages
shows signs of slackening-the refinance index is
down by 1% over the previous week, though still at a
very high absolute level.
- Chain Store Sales
- Chain store sales rose 0.5% in January, the
weakest January result on record back to 1970,
according to the ICSC. Growth was also the slowest
for any month since 2002 after adjusting for Easter
distortions. Retailers prepared and responded with
cost-cutting, helping offset the blow to margins.
Nonetheless, this provides more evidence that
consumers are cutting their spending.
- Oil and Gas Inventories
- Crude oil inventories rose by 7.0 million barrels for
the week ending February 1 according to the Energy
Information Administration, far surpassing
expectations of a 2.6 million barrel build. Distillate
supplies unexpectedly rose by 0.1 million barrels.
Gasoline inventories rose by 3.6 million barrels,
surpassing expectations of a 2.0 million barrel build.
Refinery operating capacity contracted again to 84.3%
from 85% the previous week. This is yet another
bearish oil report.
- Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
- Working gas in storage fell 200 Bcf in the week
ending February 1. This is a larger-than-expected
withdrawal and will have a bullish effect on prices.
Source: Economy.com 2008
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Bonneville Research is a Utah-based
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research to public and private sector clients
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Effectiveness
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If we can help, please call or email us at
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- 801-746-5706
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