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Monday Report
October Retail Sales February 5th 2008


ECONOMIC NOTES:

This Weeks Leads


 

SCORECARD

Utah Retail Sales - October 2007

The "Top 20%"

  1. Sandy jumps ahead of Orem for #2
  2. West Valley up to #3
  3. Orem down to #4
  4. South Salt Lake slips below St George to #7
  5. Ogden slips to #11

The "Big Winners"

  1. Centerville up 47%
  2. Draper up 30.7%
  3. North Salt Lake up 22.6%
  4. Lehi up 14.6%

The "Big Losers"

  1. South Salt Lake down 10%
  2. Midvale down 9%
  3. Ogden down 3%
  4. Orem 3%
  5. St George down 3%

Direct Taxable Retail Sales - October 2007

Rank CITYOctober 2007 Sales% Change Oct 07 - Oct 08Market Share
1SALT LAKE CITY$395,2968.0% 15.7%
2SANDY $143,242-0.3% 5.7%
3WEST VALLEY$141,590 -0.1%5.6%
4OREM $140,743-3.1% 5.6%
5 MURRAY$129,5751.2% 5.2%
6ST. GEORGE $126,462 -2.7%5.0%
7SOUTH SALT LAKE$115,696 -10.1%4.6%
8WEST JORDAN$98,3996.8% 3.9%
9LAYTON $88,563-0.7% 3.5%
10PROVO $87,9191.8%3.5%
11OGDEN $87,644-3.3%3.5%
12RIVERDALE $53,9244.8% 2.1%
13LOGAN $53,9165.2%2.1%
14DRAPER $51,94230.7%2.1%
15AMERICAN FORK$49,7829.0% 2.0%
16MIDVALE$44,796 -9.0%1.8%
17VERNAL $42,3439.0%1.7%
18CEDAR CITY$41,4441.8% 1.6%
19TAYLORSVILLE $38,72310.4%1.5%
20SOUTH JORDAN$36,31111.0% 1.4%
21LEHI $35,12814.6%1.4%
22LINDON $30,54212.5%1.2%
23BOUNTIFUL $30,0389.9%1.2%
24CENTERVILLE $28,87747.0%1.1%
25COTTONWOOD HEIGHTS$27,526 1.1%
Source: Utah State Tax Commission, February 2008

The Ten Things Everyone Should Know About Science Part X

  • You may be able to quote Shakespeare, but what are you like on Big Bang theory?
  • The Financial Times gives non-scientifically minded readers a leg up the tree of knowledge.

Statistical significance

  • Researchers need a statistical method to tell whether apparent relationships are real or the result of chance. Does a new drug treat a disease better than a placebo? Does pre-school education enhance later academic performance? Is global warming increasing rainfall?
  • Mathematical techniques have been available since the 1920s for working out the probability that the outcome of an experiment is the result of a statistical accident rather than a real effect. This is denoted by the symbol p. The cut-off for accepting an outcome as genuine - or ''statistically significant'' - varies across the sciences but in biomedical studies the upper threshold of p is usually set at 5 per cent or 0.05; in other words, the probability that the result occurred by chance alone must be less than 1 in 20.
  • Of course lower p values increase confidence that the study has detected a real effect; p less than 0.001 is sometimes called highly significant. But it is important to remember that in this context ''significant'' is a statistical term. It does not necessarily mean that the result is significant in a more fundamental sense or indeed that the study was well designed and properly conducted.
  • There are many ways in which a statistically significant result can be misinterpreted. One is failure to take account of hidden factors not included in the statistical analysis, which bias the outcome. For example an investigation into the effect of religion on health found that church attendance was associated with a significant reduction in mortality; but a potential biasing factor, not considered in the study, was the fact that people at greatest risk of dying were too ill to attend services.
    Why does it matter?
  • Statistical analysis - if carried out well - is the most rigorous and objective way to assess how well evidence fits theory.
    What's next?
  • Some critics claim that contemporary science places statistical significance on a pedestal that it does not deserve. But no one has come up with an alternative way of assessing experimental outcomes that is as simple or as generally applicable.
    Fear factor: nervous twitching

    Source: The Financial Times Limited 2007


Top companies shift into recession mode

  • Leading US companies are shifting into recession mode and preparing to cut costs, freeze hiring and reduce capital spending as they brace for an economic slowdown, senior executives and industry experts have said.
  • Their concerns are likely to be reinforced by the International Monetary Fund, which yesterday slashed its forecast for US growth and warned that no country would be totally immune to what it termed a "global slowdown".
  • Business leaders say rising oil prices, sagging consumer confidence and the credit crunch are prompting them to put in place contingency plans to protect against the expected economic downturn.
  • "We have been buttoned down since July with a total clampdown on costs and capital expenditure." Is a common response.
  • Large multinationals are counting on growth in overseas demand and the weak dollar to offset domestic weakness.

Source: The Financial Times Limited 2007

What are you doing?

Greetings!

October Retail Sales

  • How are we doing?
  • Who is up?
  • Who is down?

Recession 2008: What should you be doing?

The Ten Things Everyone Should Know About Science, Pt X

Bob Springmeyer

Bonneville Research


  • ECONOMIC NOTES:
    • GDP
    • Economic growth was very poor in the fourth quarter, just 0.6% at an annualized pace. This was only about one-half of the consensus expectation. Over the past year, real GDP has increased 2.5%. That compares with the 4.9% growth in the third quarter. A fall in inventories and weaker growth in federal spending, exports and consumer spending were behind the slower growth. These factors were partly offset by weaker growth in imports and stronger growth in state and local government spending. The weakness is now spreading beyond the housing market. The economy likely contracted in December, and the risk of recession remains extremely high.
    • Conference Board Consumer Confidence
    • The Conference Board index of consumer confidence fell in January to 87.9 from an upwardly revised 90.6 in December (previously 88.6). The index remains fractionally above its November low. The decline entirely in the expectations component; the present situation component rose. Assessments of labor markets conditions improved modestly.
    • FOMC II
    • he Federal Open Market Committee cut the fed funds target rate by 50 basis points to 3%; this was on top of an emergency intermeeting rate cut of 75 basis points last week. The press statement discussed financial market stress, tight credit and a softening in labor markets. The FOMC also cut the discount rate 50 basis points to 3.5%. One member dissented, calling for no rate cut.
    • New Home Sales (C25)
    • Home sales took another beating at the end of last year, with Census reporting 604,000 annualized units sold in December, the weakest pace since the spring of 1993. This is a decline of 4.7% from a downwardly revised November number. The median price is down by 10.4% from one year ago and the months of inventory crept up to 9.6.
    • House Price Index
    • Both the 10-city and 20-city composite S&P/Case- Shiller house price indexes declined in November from October. The 10-city composite fell by 2.2% and the 20-city composite fell by 2.1%. The 10-city composite is down 8.4% over the past year, the largest year-over-year decline since the index began in 1988. The 20-city composite is down 7.7% over the past year. Prices fell in all 20 metro areas in November. House prices continue to fall, with no signs of stabilization.
    • MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
    • The market indices finished mixed again for the week ending January 25. The composite index finished at 1,054.9, an increase of 7.5% over the previous week. The purchase index finished at 362.0, down by 17.7% over last week's value. The refinance index finished at 5,103.6, an increase of 22.1% over last week's value. As in the previous week, refinancing of mortgages continues at a feverish pace while purchases continue to slip.
    • Chain Store Sales
    • Chain store sales fell again in the week ending January 26 according to the ICSC. Sales declined 1.2%, taking year-over-year growth down to 1.3%. The weakness forced the ICSC to again lower their projection for the month, which is turning out to be very disappointing for retailers.
    • Oil and Gas Inventories
    • Crude oil inventories rose by 3.6 million barrels for the week ending January 25 according to the Energy Information Administration, exceeding expectations of a 2.0 million barrel build. Distillate supplies fell by 1.5 million barrels, in line with expectations. Gasoline inventories rose by 3.6 million barrels, surpassing expectations of a 2.0 million barrel build. Refinery operating capacity fell sharply to 85% from 86.5%. This report is bearish.

    Source: Economy.com 2008


  • This Weeks Leads
    • Jenny Craig
    • Jenny Craig, Inc. trades as Jenny Craig at 567 locations nationwide and in Canada.
    • The weight loss centers occupy spaces of 1,800 sq.ft. in power and strip centers.
    • Growth opportunities are sought nationwide during the coming 18 months.
    • Typical leases run five years.
    • A vanilla shell is required.
    • Preferred cotenants include drug and grocery stores, Target, Marshalls, T.J. Maxx and Michaels.
    • Major competitors include LA Weight Loss and Weight Watchers.
    • For more information, contact
      • Mark Schoffstall,
      • Jenny Craig, Inc.,
      • 5770 Fleet Street,
      • Carlsbad,
      • CA 92008;
      • Web site: www.jennycraig.com.

  • BONNEVILLE RESEARCH - Working with clients to deliver results that endure!
  • Successful client work requires a superior team of outstanding people working fluidly together.

    Bonneville Research is the one firm with the experience and expertise to help businesses, governments and nonprofit organizations solve their toughest problems.

    We work to help clients achieve enduring results and improve the communities in which we live.


    BONNEVILLE RESEARCH

    Bonneville Research is a Utah-based consulting firm providing economic, financial, market and policy research to public and private sector clients throughout the intermountain west.

    Helping Clients Succeed

    Our services include:

    • Financial Analysis
    • Business License Studies
    • Impact Fee analysis
    • Urban Renewal & Redevelopment Analysis and Budgets
    • Strategy and Policy Analysis
    • Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis
    • Statistical and Survey Research
    • Public Sector Mission Effectiveness

    Each of our studies is tailored to address the unique needs of our clients and their communities.


    If we can help, please call or email us at

    • Bob
      • 801-364-5300
      • BobSpring@BonnevilleResearch.com
    • Jon
      • 801-746-5706
      • JonSpring@BonnevilleResearch.com

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