SCORECARD
Utah Hospitality Industry
Occupancy Rates and Revenue per Available
Room (RevPAR) 2007
The "Top 20% Months": - March
- February
- January
The "Bottom
10%": - December
- November
Occupancy Rates and Revenue per
Available Room (RevPAR) 2007
Month | Occupancy %
2007 | Occupancy % 2006 |
Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR) 2007 |
Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR)
2006 |
January | 67.5% | 61.1%
| $74.93 | $59.10 |
February | 70.0%
| 69.1%
| $75.07 | $66.41 |
March | 75.3% | 77.9%
| $79.54 | $75.42 |
April | 63.7% | 66.1%
| $55.93 | $52.89 |
May | 65.4% | 62.3%
| $56.02 | $47.19 |
June | 78.5% | 75.9%
| $71.78 | $61.05 |
July | 75.6% | 73.2%
| $67.44 | $59.08 |
August | 77.0% | 79.6%
| $72.63 | $69.01 |
September | 71.7%
| 72.4%
| $65.61 | $60.31 |
October | 66.8% | 68.5%
| $59.81 | $58.66 |
November | 57.9%
| 57.4%
| $50.86 | $46.25 |
December | 51.6%
| 55.3%
| $50.80 | $51.74 |
Year to Date | 68.4%
| 68.3%
| $65.00 | $58.91 |
The "Top 20%" RevPAR Areas Statewide
include: - Utah Mtn Resorts $103.91
- SLC
Downtown $72.57
- South Valley SLCo $65.12
The Bottom 10% include: - Cedar City
$42.48
- Logan $47.21
Source: Rocky Mountain Lodging Report, December
2007
The Ten Things Everyone Should Know
About Science Part IX
- You may be able to quote Shakespeare, but what
are you like on Big Bang theory?
- The Financial
Times gives non-scientifically minded readers a leg
up the tree of knowledge.
Digital data
- The world of computing, telecommunications and
electronics is going digital. Information, whether it is
the human voice, a television picture or a computer
program, is stored and processed as strings of binary
digits or ''bits'' (0s and 1s). The real world, in contrast,
works on analogue signals. Its sights and sounds are
not a series of numbers but vary continuously in
space and time.
- Converting the analogue world to digital signals
involves some loss of information, because
digitisation means taking a sample of the original
rather than transmitting the whole thing. But this loss
is a price worth paying, because digital data is so
much easier to transmit, store and process
electronically.
- Think of a top-quality analogue recording of music
on vinyl. It can provide an aural experience unmatched
by a digital CD, as long as the record is new and
unscratched. But frequent playing distorts and
degrades the analogue signals on vinyl, whereas a
CD with digital bits hardly loses any sound quality.
- In broadcasting and telecommunications, the
greater resistance of digital signals to fading, static
and distortion is even more important - and so is the
fact that digital transmissions take up less bandwidth
than analogue. In practice all modern computing is
digital and therefore any information fed into a
computer must be digital too.
Why does it matter?
- Consumer electronics are going or have gone
digital. In the UK, all television broadcasts will be
digital by 2012 - and old TV sets will be useless
without an electronic box to convert the digital signals
to analogue.
What next?
- Millions of scientists, electronic engineers and
information technology specialists around the world
are developing new ways to use and process digital
data - from super-fast computers to do-everything
mobile devices.
Fear factor: dilated pupils
What's next? - Statistical
significance
Source: The Financial Times, 2008
THIS WEEKS LEADS
- Bahama Breeze
- Darden Restaurants, Inc. trades as Bahama
Breeze at 23 locations nationwide.
- The restaurants occupy spaces of 8,000 sq.ft. to
8,600 sq.ft. in endcaps, freestanding locations and
power and strip centers.
- Plans call for one to two
openings nationwide during the coming 18 months.
- For more information, contact
- John
Doshna,
- Darden Restaurants, Inc.,
- 5900 Lake
Ellenor Drive,
- Orlando, FL 32809;
- 407-245-
4000,
- Fax 407-245-5627.
- Arby's
- Arby's Restaurant Group trades as Arby's at 1,100
locations nationwide.
- The fast food restaurants,
offering roast beef and chicken sandwiches, occupy
spaces of 3,000 sq.ft. to 3,500 sq.ft. in freestanding
locations, malls, power centers and urban/downtown
areas.
- Growth opportunities are sought
nationwide during the coming 18 months.
- Typical
leases run 20 years.
- Preferred cotenants include Wal*Mart.
- Preferred demographics include a population of
20,000 within five miles earning $45,000 as the
average household income.
- Major competitors
include Burger King, Chick-Fil-A, McDonald's and
Wendy's.
- A land area of 32,000 sq.ft. to 40,000
sq.ft. is required for freestanding locations.
- For more information, contact
- Dan
James,
- 9311 North Meridian Street,
- Suite 100,
- Indianapolis, IN 46260;
- 317-705-3010,
- Fax
317-705-3003;
- Email:
[email protected];
- eb site:
www.rtminc.com.
Grants
Ronald McDonald House Charities
Announces Deadlines for Grants
to Aid Children
- Deadline: April 28, 2008; and September 8,
2008 (Letters of Inquiry)
- Ronald McDonald House Charities and its global
network of local RMHC Chapters provide grants and
program services designed to make an immediate,
positive impact on children in need around the world.
- RMHC provides grants to nonprofit, tax-exempt
organizations whose national or global programs
help improve the health and well-being of children.
Programs that focus on a specific com- munity or
area should submit grant requests to a local RMHC
Chapter ( http://www.rmhc.org/search_cm/ ) for
consideration.
- To be considered for funding, an applicant must
be designated a not-for-profit, tax-exempt charitable
organization. U.S.
charities must have a 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status
letter on file with the Internal Revenue Service. The
RMHC board of trustees is most interested in
national or international org- anizations that have a
specific program related to children's health and well-
being.
- Organizations seeking funding should have a
specific program that directly improves the health and
well-being of children; addresses a significant
funding gap or critical opportunity; has long-term
impact in terms of replication or reach; and produces
measurable results. Organizations seeking funding
should have a broad base of funding support,
management capa- city to effectively execute the
project, and a clear, concise plan for project
evaluation with outcome measurement.
- RMHC does not fund advertising or fundraising
drives; partisan, political, or denominational
programs; ongoing general and administrative costs
(including salaries, travel, and overhead);
intermediary funding agencies; endowment
campaigns; individual funding requests; programs
that are strictly local in focus and not replicable; or
medical research.
- Visit the RMHC Web site for complete application
procedures.
Grants for Telecommunications Facilities!
- Public Telecommunications Facilities Program
(PTFP)
- POSTED: 1/11/2008
- FUNDING SOURCE: Department of Commerce
- ELIGIBILITY: Nonprofit and public agencies
- $ AVAILABLE: $16,800,000
- GRANTS AVAILABLE: N.A.
- MAX GRANT SIZE: N.A.
- DEADLINE: 2/22/2008
- CONTACT INFORMATION: Larry Dyer, 202-482-
1762
- DESCRIPTION: Grants for the planning and
construction of public telecommunications facilities in
order to
extend the delivery of services to as many citizens as
possible and increase the availability of public
telecommunications services and facilities.
Get Schools Ready for Emergencies!
- Readiness and Emergency Management for
Schools
- POSTED: 1/11/2008
- FUNDING SOURCE: Dept. of Education
- ELIGIBILITY: LEAs
- $ AVAILABLE: $24,000,000
- GRANTS AVAILABLE: 96
- MAX GRANT SIZE: $500,000
- DEADLINE: 2/19/2008
- CONTACT INFORMATION: Sara Strizzi, 303-346-
0924
- DESCRIPTION: Funding to enable LEAs to
improve and strengthen their school emergency
management plans, including training school
personnel and students; communicating with parents
about emergency plans; and coordinating with local
law enforcement and other agencies.
Arts in Education Grants!
- Arts in Education Model Development and
Dissemination Program
- POSTED: 1/15/2008
- FUNDING SOURCE: Department of Education
- ELIGIBILITY: LEAs
- $ AVAILABLE: $3,500,000
- GRANTS AVAILABLE: 14
vMAX GRANT SIZE: $275,000
- DEADLINE: 2/13/08 (LOI) 3/14/08 (deadline)
- CONTACT INFORMATION: Diane Austin, 202-260-
1280
- DESCRIPTION: Grants to support the
enhancement, expansion, documentation, evaluation
and dissemination of innovative, cohesive models to
integrate standards-based arts education into the
core elementary and middle school curricula, as well
as strengthen standards-based arts instruction in
these grades.
Job Training Grants for Native Americans!
- Indian and Native American Employment and
Training Programs
- POSTED: 1/11/2008
- FUNDING SOURCE: Dept. of Labor
- ELIGIBILITY: Indian Tribes and Native American
Organizations
- $ AVAILABLE: $54,000,000
- GRANTS AVAILABLE: N.A.
vMAX GRANT SIZE: N.A.
- DEADLINE: 2/4/2008
- CONTACT INFORMATION: Serena Boyd, 202-693-
3338
- DESCRIPTION: Grants to provide employment and
training services to Indians, Alaska Natives and Native
Hawaiians under Section 166 of the Workforce
Investment Act for Program Years 2008 and 2009.
Jobs
Volunteer Coordinator
- The Salt Lake City Bicycle Collective
(www.slcbikecollective.org) is looking for a full-time
volunteer coordinator.
- The ideal candidate would
be a
well organized and social person that needs meaning
in what they do -- and wants to be community builder.
- The mission of the Salt Lake City Bicycle Collective
is
to promote cycling as an effective and sustainable
form of transportation and as a cornerstone of a
cleaner, healthier, and safer society.
- The Bicycle
Collective provides refurbished bicycles and
educational programs to the community, focusing on
children and lower income households.
- The Volunteer Coordinator will be in charge of
meeting and expanding our network of volunteers to
staff four key programs:
- The Community Bike
Shop,
- Valet Bicycle Parking,
- Youth Earn-a-Bike
classes and
- special events such as the International Bicycle
Film
Festival.
- The benefits package includes health and
educational
funds.
- If you are interested in fighting the good
fight,
send an email to [email protected] including
your resume and personal mission statement.
Non-Profit Chief Executive Officer
- National Ability Center
- After watching this non-profit organization grow
and develop for more than two decades the CEO has
announced she will be stepping aside. Much has
been accomplished but the work is not finished. This
is an opportunity to touch the lives of individuals with
disabilities and their families by providing affordable
outdoor sports and recreational experiences in a
nurturing environment. They are committed to the
development of lifetime skills for people of all ages
and abilities. As a national role model this
organization promotes the concept of ability through
integration, public awareness and education.
- The CEO is responsible for directing and
managing all of the activities of this non-profit
organization under the supervision of the Board of
Directors. Primary responsibilities include working
with the Board and staff in the implementation and
consistent execution of strategic goals. All operations
of this Organization roll up to the CEO including
fundraising, programs, fiscal, public relations,
facilities, and employee morale.
- Additional Responsibilities include:
- Insure organizational culture, values and
reputation are maintained within its market(s) as well
as with all staff, members, suppliers, and partners.
- Develop and maintain a strategic plan for
development of programs and fund-raising.
- Directly seek and solicit donations.
- Oversee and evaluate public relations/marketing
strategy including presenting
interviews/speeches/presentations as need be with
the press and public.
- Oversee preparation and management of budget.
- Work with executive team to develop short and
long term goals.
- Interact with board of directors on strategy, vision,
and direction of organization.
- Requirements
- Minimum 10 years experience in management
performance including personnel supervision,
program planning, and financial management.
- Preferred experience in non-profit arena
- Must have a demonstrated ability to fund-raise.
- Experience/active in sports and recreation
required.
- Bachelors or Masters degree in related field. .
Position located in Park City,
Utah
For confidential consideration, please send your
resume in Word format to [email protected],
noting the job title in the subject line of your email or
contact Pete Taylor at Management Recruiters of Salt
Lake City, 800-622-2085x327.
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Greetings!
Utah Hospitality Industry - How are we
doing?
- What months do we make the most money?
- What months should we just close up?
- Where
and when should we be spending tourism promotion
money?
Recession 2008: What Would It
Mean for Real Estate?
The Ten Things Everyone Should
Know About Science, Pt IX
Bob Springmeyer
Bonneville Research
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ECONOMIC NOTES: |
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- Global Business Confidence
- The global economy is stalling according to last
week's business confidence survey results.
Sentiment is consistent with a contracting U.S.
economy, soft European and South America
economies, and an Asian economy that is expanding
at the low end of its potential. Expectations regarding
the six-month outlook have never been as negative in
the over five years of the survey. Confidence is
weakest among real estate firms and financial
institutions, but it has declined considerably in recent
weeks among business service firms and even
heretofore more optimistic manufacturers. Pricing
pressures remain very subdued despite the currently
high oil prices.
- Risk of Recession
- With the fallout from the housing correction and
last summer's subprime financial shock intensifying,
the risk of recession has increased appreciably since
August. In December, the Moody's Economy.com
probability of recession increased to 56%, up from
November's unrevised 52% and its highest since
2001. With risks rising, additional monetary easing is
coming, and the odds of some fiscal stimulus are
increasing.
- Mass Layoffs
- The number of layoff actions involving at least 50
workers from a single establishment in December
was 1,433, compared with 1,300 in November. As
such, they involved 141,750 workers, compared to
136,924 in November. All numbers are seasonally
adjusted. Mass layoffs are expected to remain
elevated over the next several months.
- Initial Jobless Claims
- In a surprise move, initial jobless claims dropped
21,000 to 301,000 for the week ending January 12, far
below expectations for the week. Take this number
with a grain of salt, as recent numbers have been
impacted by the holidays. A spell of warm weather is
likely to have also played a role. For the week ending
January 19th, initial claims surprised on the downside
yet again, dropping 1,000 to 301,000 for the week
ending January 19. Recent claims numbers need to
be interpreted with caution, as history shows this time
of year to be very volatile.
- Quarterly Household Credit Report
- Household credit quality eroded sharply at the
end of 2007. Delinquency and default rates rose
substantially for first and second mortgages, auto
loans, and credit cards. Taking all household
liabilities together, delinquency and default rates are
now much higher than they were in the 2001
recession. Balance growth remains surprisingly
strong and accelerated in the quarter as consumers
reduced prepayments and took advantage of falling
interest rates.
- Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
- The Federal Open Market Committee, in a rare
intermeeting decision, cut the fed funds target rate by
75 basis points to 3.5%. The cut was in response to
the current turmoil in global financial markets and
increasing concern that the U.S. economy is headed
toward recession. The FOMC also cut the discount
rate 75 basis points to 4%. One member dissented.
- Existing Home Sales
- The housing market remains mired in weakness,
according to the National Association of Realtors'
report for December. Existing home sales declined by
2.2% from November to an annualized 4.89 million
units, even worse than expectations. The median
existing house price is down by 6% from one year
ago. The inventory situation, however, is looking
slightly better, with about nine months of available
inventories.
- New Residential Construction (C20)
- Housing starts decreased 14.2% to 1.006 million
units in December, more than Moody's Economy.com
had expected. Housing permits decreased 8.1%
during the month. Expect the market to remain soft
throughout at least the first half of the year, even with
continued rate cuts by the FOMC.
- MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
- The indexes finished mixed for the week ending
January 18. The composite index increased to 981.5,
an increase of 8.3% from the previous week, rather
slow growth from the gain of the previous two weeks.
The bulk of the gain came from the refinance index,
which ended at 4,178.2, an increase of 16.9% over the
previous week. By contrast, the purchase index ended
at 439.9, down 4.6% from the previous week.
- Chain Store Sales
- Chain store sales improved modestly in the week
ending January 19 according to the ICSC. Sales rose
0.7%, reversing most of the prior week's decline, and
year-over-year growth rose to 1.6%. Cold weather,
which discouraged shopping, and high gasoline
prices were blamed for the weak performance.
- Oil and Gas Inventories
- Crude oil inventories rose by 2.3 million barrels for
the week ending January 18 according to the Energy
Information Administration, slightly besting
expectations. Distillate supplies fell by 1.3 million
barrels, below expectations of a 0.1 million barrel
build. Gasoline inventories soared by 5.0, surpassing
expectations of a 1.6 million barrel build. Refinery
operating capacity fell to 86.5% from 87.1%. This
mixed report should support prices.
- Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
- Underground storage of natural gas decreased by
155 billion cubic feet during the week ending 18
January. The consensus forecast was for a decrease
of 158 billion cubic feet. Inventories currently stand
8.9% lower than a year ago, but 7.4% above the five-
year average.
Source: Economy.com 2008
Recession 2008: What Would It Mean for
Real Estate?
- If the nation slides into a recession this year,
commercial real estate investors could see their
annual returns shrink slightly or plummet into negative
territory, depending on property type and the severity of
the economic storm, according to Property & Portfolio
Research.
- Apartment owners are better positioned to hold the
value of their real estate holdings through a mild
recession than owners of office, warehouse or retail
properties, but will likely experience a greater drop in
net operating income (NOI), says Hans Nordby, PPR's
director of U.S. market research.
- "What benefits apartments [in a recession] is that
everybody believes in apartments as a good port in a
capital storm," Nordby says. "While the NOIs on
apartments have a lot of volatility in a recession, the
cap rates are well-supported by investors."
- For office, warehouse and retail properties, net
operating income often continues to improve through
a mild recession due to lease terms that average
about five years for those property types. Even if a
landlord has to lower the asking rent on a property,
tenants renewing a lease will still end up paying more
than they had been paying over the course of a lease
term that is rolling over. NOI, therefore, remains
positive. Not so for apartments, where leases are
renewed each year at market rates and the effects of
recession are more immediate.
- Investors tend to favor apartments as a safer
investment than office, warehouse or retail, however,
so those properties become less attractive during
mild recessions despite their stronger NOI growth,
Nordby says. As a consequence, investors buying
those properties demand a greater initial return on
their purchase. That means cap rates on office,
warehouse and retail would increase in a recession,
but perhaps not by much. The falling benchmark
interest rates that usually come with a recession give
buyers a better spread over cap rates without a severe
increase in overall cap rates.
- Differences in annual returns by property type in
either a mild or severe recession are the subject of
alternative forecast scenarios PPR has prepared for
its clients. To be clear, the company's baseline
forecast still calls for slow economic growth in 2008
without a recession, which is defined as two or more
quarters of negative GDP. In response to client
requests, however, PPR reran its models to see what
returns would likely be under more dire conditions.
- Retail is the only one of the four major property
types that would drop into negative annual returns in
the event of a mild recession. That model shows retail
entering negative return territory this summer, dipping
to a 2% loss for 2008 and gradually recovering to
positive returns in 2009. Every property type would
suffer negative returns in the event of a severe
recession, but retail would bounce hardest with
annualized losses of nearly 6% in the summer of
2009, recovering with break-even returns in the
summer of 2011.
- Unlike the early 1990s recession when retail
properties performed well, recent deliveries and
construction scheduled to deliver this year have
primed the sector for a hard fall in the event of a
recession. "Retail gets creamed in both a light
recession and a severe recession," Nordby says.
- Hopefully PPR's baseline projection will prove the
most prescient, with soft returns of about 4% that
gradually improve to about 6% by the end of 2012.
- Will there be a recession in 2008? The consensus
on Wall Street puts the likelihood at 40% for the year,
according to Zanny Minton Beddoes, U.S. economics
editor at The Economist. Recession risks are rising,
Beddoes told attendees at a presentation on the
national economy today in Austin.
- Whether or not the economy meets the technical
definition of a recession doesn't matter, because even
a slow economy will feel like a recession to
consumers, Beddoes says. She predicts further
declines in housing construction and home prices,
followed by a lengthy period of lackluster economic
activity leading into a slow recovery. Nevertheless, a
correction is necessary, she says. "This is not a story
of disaster," she says. "It is an unwinding of excesses;
it's a necessary adjustment."
Source: NREI, 2008
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BONNEVILLE RESEARCH - Working with clients to deliver results that endure! |
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Successful client work requires a
superior team of
outstanding people working fluidly together.
Bonneville Research is the one firm with
the
experience and expertise to help
businesses,
governments and nonprofit organizations
solve their
toughest problems.
We work to help clients achieve enduring
results
and improve the communities in which we
live.
BONNEVILLE RESEARCH
Bonneville Research is a Utah-based
consulting
firm providing economic, financial, market
and policy
research to public and private sector clients
throughout the intermountain west.
Helping Clients Succeed
Our services include:
- Financial Analysis
- Business License Studies
- Impact Fee analysis
- Urban Renewal & Redevelopment
Analysis and Budgets
- Strategy and Policy Analysis
- Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis
- Statistical and Survey Research
- Public Sector Mission
Effectiveness
Each of our studies is tailored to address
the
unique needs of our clients and their
communities.
If we can help, please call or email us at
- Bob
- 801-364-5300
- [email protected]
- Jon
- 801-746-5706
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[email protected]
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